SpaceX's AI business is reshaping the rocket company's revenue mix at an unprecedented pace, and behind this shift lies a heavyweight bet from an AI startup.
According to a person familiar with the matter cited by Bloomberg, AI company Anthropic is currently SpaceX's largest single customer, contributing more than one-third of SpaceX's revenue in the third quarter of this year. This revelation means the company, originally built on rockets and satellites, now depends more on a single AI computing customer than on the U.S. federal government.
SpaceX disclosed in a filing last week that approximately 34.5% of its third-quarter revenue came from a single customer of its AI division, now renamed Super Intelligence, which was identified in the filing only as "Customer B."
The person familiar with the matter confirmed that "Customer B" is Anthropic but declined to be named, citing the private nature of the information. This exposure has raised market concerns about the stability of SpaceX's revenue, as Anthropic could exercise its contract exit right as early as next year.
SpaceX closed down 0.92% on Thursday and fell a further 1.7% in after-hours trading as of the time of writing.
AI Computing Business Turns Profitable for the First Time, Revenue Structure Deeply Reshaped
Anthropic's payments to SpaceX stem from a contract signed earlier this year, under which Anthropic will use computing resources from SpaceX's data center in Memphis, Tennessee.
Musk is gradually building SpaceX's AI business into a so-called "neocloud" model, renting out data center computing power to customers including Anthropic and Alphabet's Google.
This bet began to pay off this quarter: SpaceX's AI business achieved profitability for the first time, providing support for Musk's stated goal of reaching $100 billion in annualized revenue by the end of 2026.
However, the strong performance of the AI computing business has also made SpaceX highly dependent on a single customer, and this comes at a time when Wall Street's confidence in the neocloud industry is cooling.
Contract Scale Is Massive, but Exit Clauses Pose Hidden Risks
According to Anthropic's IPO disclosure documents, the company has committed to paying SpaceX up to $120.5 billion over the contract term through 2029, equivalent to approximately $3.1 billion per month starting in December of this year.
However, the contract contains clear exit windows: Anthropic may terminate the contract with 90 days' notice after January 2027 and after March 2027, respectively.
In addition, Anthropic has agreements with other neocloud suppliers such as Nscale and Lambda, further highlighting its intention to maintain a diversified computing supplier strategy and indicating that SpaceX is not its only option.
Musk Warns of Neocloud Shakeout but Insists SpaceX Is Differentiated
As the neocloud industry comes under pressure, Musk has been speaking frequently on his social platform X in recent weeks, which now falls under SpaceX's ownership. He commented on the situation of CoreWeave's high-yield bonds and emphasized what sets SpaceX apart from other neocloud competitors.
"The debt market has essentially closed financing channels for any company lacking substantial revenue outside of AI data centers," Musk said, noting that SpaceX also has Starlink and rocket launch businesses as revenue pillars.
"This means more than 200 neoclouds will face a fry-level death and consolidation. Some will survive, but not many."
Government Contract Status Declines, NASA Share May Fall Below 5%
Anthropic's revenue share surpassing that of the U.S. federal government reflects the profound transformation SpaceX has undergone in less than a year. Since SpaceX acquired Musk's AI company xAI, this rocket company that once relied heavily on NASA and U.S. Department of Defense contracts is rapidly moving toward becoming an AI computing service provider.
According to SpaceX's filings, only two customers accounted for more than 10% of total revenue in the third quarter.
Besides Anthropic, another customer, possibly representing combined payments from multiple government agencies, accounted for only 16.6% of revenue in the third quarter, compared with about one-fifth in 2025.
Musk also predicted that NASA, once one of SpaceX's most important partners, will account for less than 5% of the company's revenue by 2026.
Comments