Since its debut on the Nasdaq on June 12th, shares of space exploration firm SpaceX have experienced significant turbulence. However, a majority of Wall Street institutions remain optimistic about its long-term prospects, anticipating considerable room for further stock price appreciation.
SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history with an offering price of $135 per share. On its first trading day, the stock opened at $150 and, over subsequent sessions, surged to a peak of $225.64. This rapid ascent was followed by a wave of profit-taking. By early July, the share price had retreated to around $170, representing a decline of over 20% from its high. Analysts attribute this pullback to the company's consecutive annual losses, the ongoing cash burn from its AI operations, and the impending expiration of lock-up periods for restricted shares.
Despite the pronounced short-term volatility, several Wall Street firms maintain a positive view on the stock's future performance. According to the latest FactSet survey, which aggregates forecasts from 10 analysts, the average price target for SpaceX is $227, indicating significant potential upside from current levels. Among these, Oppenheimer assigned an "Outperform" rating with a $190 target price. While KeyBanc did not set a specific target, it emphasized the importance of monitoring progress on the Starship program.
The bullish thesis primarily centers on SpaceX's vertically integrated "Space + AI" ecosystem. Analyst Timothy Horan of Oppenheimer posits that the company is building an AI closed-loop system encompassing Starlink, Starship, and xAI, with a potential addressable market reaching $10 trillion by 2035. Additionally, the company's AI computing power supply agreements with Anthropic and Google, coupled with the expected influx of passive investment funds following its inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7th, are seen as potential supports for the share price.
Nevertheless, market opinions remain deeply divided. Analysts at Morningstar, utilizing a discounted cash flow model, estimate the fair value of SpaceX at only $63 per share, warning that the current valuation excessively discounts future expectations. The company reported a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025, and its first-quarter loss for this year further widened to $4.28 billion, with the AI business being a primary contributor to the losses.
For investors, the SpaceX share price faces near-term pressure from the phased unlocking of restricted shares starting in late August, which will increase supply. From a long-term perspective, however, if the company's vision for commercial Starship launches and orbital data centers gradually materializes, the stock retains substantial potential for appreciation.
Comments