Ed Yardeni, a veteran Wall Street strategist, has abandoned his 15-year overweight stance on technology stocks, now recommending a substantial underweight position for the "Magnificent Seven" mega-cap tech stocks in S&P 500 allocations. This shift marks a significant adjustment in the market expert's outlook on the U.S. stock market's leading sector.
In a research report released last Sunday, Yardeni Research announced it no longer recommends overweight positions in the information technology and communication services sectors within S&P 500 portfolios - the first such change in its recommendation since 2010. The firm anticipates a shift in future earnings growth momentum. This reallocation advice directly targets tech giants including Nvidia, Meta, and Alphabet.
Since late 2019, the "Magnificent Seven" index has surged over 600%, compared to the S&P 500's 113% gain during the same period. Yardeni also noted that the rationale for maintaining an overweight position in U.S. markets within global allocations has weakened, particularly as other global markets have outperformed the U.S. this year.
"Competition Eroding Tech Giants' Moats" "We're seeing increasing competition targeting the 'Magnificent Seven's' generous profit margins," Yardeni stated. He predicts that widespread technology adoption will boost productivity and profit margins for other S&P 500 constituents.
"Virtually every company is evolving into a technology company," Yardeni emphasized, forming the core logic behind his strategic shift - as technological capabilities become standard, tech giants' excess returns will face compression.
Yardeni Research recommends increasing overweight positions in financial and industrial sectors while adopting an overweight stance in healthcare, thereby adjusting information technology and communication services to market weight. This portfolio shift implies capital will diversify from the concentrated tech holdings of the past decade into broader economic sectors.
"Reassessing U.S. Market Premium" Yardeni also pointed out that the justification for maintaining an overweight position in U.S. markets within MSCI global index allocations has weakened. Factors supporting this view include lower valuations in other global markets, a weaker U.S. dollar, and demonstrated resilience in global corporate earnings.
This year's outperformance of other global markets versus the U.S. has prompted the strategist to reevaluate the position of U.S. assets in global allocations. While mega-cap tech stocks benefited from accelerated digital trends post-pandemic and recent AI enthusiasm, Yardeni's strategic pivot reflects growing market skepticism about the sustainability of tech dominance.
Comments