Abstract
Archer Aviation Inc. will report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 operating update and financial results on March 2, 2026 Post Market; this preview compiles consensus revenue, EBIT, and adjusted EPS expectations alongside the previous quarter’s performance and the prevailing institutional stance in the lead-up to the report.Market Forecast
Consensus for Archer Aviation Inc.’s current quarter points to adjusted EPS of -0.24 (up 17.12% year over year), EBIT of -167.82 million (down 39.28% year over year), and revenue of 0.00 million (down 100.00% year over year) in US dollars; gross profit margin and net profit margin forecasts are not available. The main business is expected to remain in its development phase with no recognized revenue, with near-term focus on operating expense intensity and per-share loss trajectory. The most promising near-term driver is the expected improvement in adjusted EPS, while revenue for the core program is projected at 0.00 million year over year at -100.00%, reflecting no anticipated commercial sales recognition this quarter.Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter, Archer Aviation Inc. posted revenue of 0.00 million, gross margin was not disclosed, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company was -130.00 million, net profit margin was not disclosed, and adjusted EPS was -0.20, improving 31.03% year over year. A notable financial highlight was the adjusted EPS beat versus consensus by approximately $0.09 per share, indicating better-than-expected per-share loss containment. The main business recognized no revenue, with revenue at 0.00 million and actual year-over-year growth of 0.00%, underscoring that revenue recognition remains non-recurring or not yet commenced.Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Main Business
Archer Aviation Inc.’s main business is expected to show zero recognized revenue in the current quarter, with consensus projecting revenue at 0.00 million and year-over-year change of -100.00%. This places the emphasis of the quarter on operating expense discipline and the interaction between invested operating dollars and progress toward program milestones. The EBIT forecast of -167.82 million, down 39.28% year over year, signals elevated operating spend versus the prior-year quarter; investors will pay attention to the composition of operating losses across research and development and selling, general, and administrative lines, and whether management indicates a pathway to moderating quarterly cash burn. That EBIT backdrop is balanced by a projected adjusted EPS of -0.24, up 17.12% year over year, suggesting the per-share loss is improving versus the comparable quarter even as operating losses widen—an indication that non-operating items (such as interest income earned on cash or changes in share count) may be cushioning EPS relative to EBIT.The continuity of last quarter’s pattern further frames expectations: Archer posted adjusted EPS of -0.20 with a 31.03% year-over-year improvement while reporting EBIT of -174.80 million that declined 43.16% year over year. That divergence between EPS and EBIT can reflect meaningful interest income on cash balances, changes in share-based compensation schedules, or timing of non-cash items, and it is directly relevant this quarter because it indicates that improving per-share metrics can coexist with heightened operating investment. Investors will look for detailed commentary about quarterly cash flow from operations and capital expenditures to understand whether improving EPS is signaling genuine leverage toward breakeven on a per-share basis or simply a function of non-operating items. The quarter-on-quarter growth rate of GAAP net profit was 36.94% last quarter, which will prompt questions about whether the sequential trend in net losses is stabilizing, improving, or worsening in tandem with the projected EBIT trajectory this quarter.
Given the consensus expectation of zero revenue, gross profit margin and net profit margin will likely remain unavailable or not meaningful in the absence of recognized sales. The call’s emphasis, therefore, is expected to be the operating update: announced milestones within the quarter, expected timing of major program achievements later in the year, and how those activities align with operating expense contours. This quarter’s narrative should address whether cost containment and prioritization are progressing in parallel with program execution, offering a clearer view of when the relationship between EBIT and EPS might converge toward a narrowing loss.
Most Promising Business
With revenue projected at 0.00 million and down 100.00% year over year, the most promising near-term metric is the expected improvement in adjusted EPS to -0.24, up 17.12% year over year, reflecting potential per-share loss moderation despite heavier operating spend. That profile can be driven by non-operating items like interest income if the company maintains substantial cash balances, and by disciplined expense timing, even as the operating program advances. Investors will likely look for management to connect adjusted EPS improvement with tangible operational progress, such as completed technical milestones, achieved targets tied to internal performance incentives, or other markers that demonstrate that reduced per-share loss is grounded in operational performance rather than purely financial effects.Archer Aviation Inc.’s last quarter showed this dynamic with adjusted EPS at -0.20 (up 31.03% year over year) while EBIT was -174.80 million (down 43.16% year over year), underlining that per-share metrics can outperform operating-line trajectories. If that pattern persists in the current quarter, it will raise constructive questions about whether EPS improvement is sustainable and can serve as a proxy for narrowing losses as operating investment begins to taper. Management’s commentary on expense visibility, expected quarterly ranges for R&D and SG&A, and any progress in defraying costs via collaboration or non-recurring engineering activities could be pivotal in framing the investment case for the next several quarters.
The bridge between improving adjusted EPS and operating investment will be assessed closely in light of any achieved performance milestones. In January 2026, the company reported that its CEO earned a stock award after hitting performance targets, which indicates that certain internal objectives were met during the period. While this does not translate directly into recognized revenue, it signals a degree of operational progress in line with performance-based milestones, and that context could complement the anticipated EPS trajectory this quarter.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The most direct driver of near-term stock performance will be how the actual adjusted EPS and EBIT compare with consensus. A print better than the expected -0.24 for adjusted EPS would support the notion that per-share losses are improving ahead of the operating loss curve; conversely, an EPS weaker than expected could challenge the narrative that financial cushioning from non-operating items is sufficient to offset heavier operating costs. For EBIT, the magnitude of loss versus the -167.82 million expectation, as well as management’s guidance on R&D and SG&A for the next two quarters, will be closely scrutinized; any signals about scaling down quarterly operating losses later in 2026 would be an important sentiment driver.Cash burn and runway commentary are likely to be decisive factors for shareholder confidence in the current quarter. While consensus data highlight the EPS and EBIT trajectories, investors will want clarity on quarter-specific operating cash flow and how capital allocation aligns with expected milestones in 2026. If management outlines clearer thresholds for expense moderation or cash use tied to defined program achievements, that can provide visibility that supports the improving EPS narrative even while EBIT remains in a widening year-over-year loss.
Legal developments are an additional variable in the near term. On January 27, 2026, Archer Aviation Inc. filed a motion to dismiss the lawsuit brought by Joby Aero. Any incremental commentary during the earnings call about the status or anticipated timeline related to this matter could impact sentiment, particularly if management frames potential outcomes and associated costs or distractions. While the outcome is not determinative of quarterly financials, legal clarity can reduce overhang and help the market focus on the financial path laid out in the operating update.
Analyst Opinions
The collected views over the past six months skew bullish. Among institutional stances captured in that period, the ratio stands at 100% bullish (1 bullish, 0 bearish), with Cantor Fitzgerald reiterating a Buy rating and setting a $13.00 price target on December 7, 2025. That Buy reiteration anchors the majority view and implies that the firm expects continued execution against internal milestones and a constructive trajectory for per-share losses as the company advances through its operating plan. The price target suggests confidence in the company’s ability to meet development objectives while maintaining financial discipline sufficient to improve the per-share loss profile relative to prior-year periods.The bullish stance also appears consistent with the company’s January 2026 disclosure indicating the CEO earned a stock award after hitting performance targets, suggesting that operational milestones were achieved in the period, which can support the case for near-term EPS improvement. From a market-structure perspective, analyst buy ratings aligned with better-than-expected per-share loss outcomes have historically tended to bolster sentiment into earnings for development-phase companies, particularly where non-operating income and disciplined expense timing can temper the headline operating loss. In Archer Aviation Inc.’s case, the expected adjusted EPS of -0.24, up 17.12% year over year, versus EBIT of -167.82 million, down 39.28% year over year, frames a near-term test of this thesis: the call will need to connect EPS momentum with operational performance in a way that reassures investors the trajectory is durable.
Cantor Fitzgerald’s Buy rating provides a reference point for how institutions are calibrating expectations into March 2, 2026. While the firm’s detailed note is not reproduced here, the essence of such a positive stance typically rests on the interplay of program execution, operating cost visibility, and financing or cash runway adequacy—each of which directly influences quarterly EPS and the medium-term path to smaller operating losses. If Archer Aviation Inc. delivers an adjusted EPS outcome better than -0.24 and outlines expense corridors that suggest less steep operating losses in subsequent quarters, that would align well with the majority bullish stance observed. Conversely, if the company reports a materially weaker EPS while indicating sustained higher operating losses without a clear moderation timeline, it could challenge the current consensus, but the prevailing view ahead of the print remains supportive.
Looking into the report on March 2, 2026 Post Market, the analyst majority is positioned to reward evidence of tangible progress coupled with financial measures that improve per-share outcomes. Specific updates the market may value include details on sequential changes in operating losses, commentary on gross margin implications once revenue recognition begins, and a more precise articulation of cash requirements to reach critical program milestones. In the absence of current quarter revenue, the company’s ability to present a convincing bridge from EBIT to EPS, and further to cash metrics, will likely be the hinge upon which the Buy-side thesis turns in the immediate term.
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