中国需要担心输入性通胀吗？

华尔街见闻2021-05-08

摘要：我国不具备输入性通胀的三个条件。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。近期，部分大宗商品价格走高，带动PPI快速回正，有观点认为这是典型的输入性通胀。但综合来看，要产生输入性通胀，至少有要有三个条件：一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者；二是固定汇率制度的安排；三是国内各类...

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Comments

hhyw
2021-05-09
hhyw
請點贊和回覆。謝謝?
馒头卡喉咙啦
2021-05-09
馒头卡喉咙啦
要
VersaillesLi
2021-05-09
VersaillesLi
[開心] [開心] [開心] [開心]
赤耳三皮
2021-05-09
赤耳三皮
哈哈
53570b80
2021-05-09
53570b80
控制國內貨幣總量國際大宗商品通漲影響沒那麼大輸入性通脹風險不大
- hhyw:
  好
吉星lily
2021-05-09
吉星lily
[呆住]

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3629811>华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n摘要：我国不具备输入性通胀的三个条件。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。\n\n近期，部分大宗商品价格走高，带动PPI快速回正，有观点认为这是典型的输入性通胀。但综合来看，要产生输入性通胀，至少有要有三个条件：一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者；二是固定汇率制度的安排；三是国内各类...\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3629811\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3629811","article_id":"1119886772","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d3216ba9e86e8387a5da72412418e73"],"rights":{"source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3629811","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119886772","pubTimestamp":1620436108,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"highlight_wallstreetcn","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"摘要：我国不具备输入性通胀的三个条件。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。\n\n近","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"Does China need to worry about imported inflation?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b1cf3a6f7bb1ede67bd4cf45e9c4792","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"摘要：我国不具备输入性通胀的三个条件。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。\n\n近期，部分大宗商品价格走高，带动PPI快速回正，有观点认为这是典型的输入性通胀。但综合来看，要产生输入性通胀，至少有要有三个条件：一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者；二是固定汇率制度的安排；三是国内各类工业品价格和消费品价格的通畅传导。现阶段，这三个条件在中国基本都不成立，中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险。国内经济的恢复节奏和结构特征可以解释大部分的大宗商品价格上涨——在我国对主要金属矿产需求占全球需求量如此巨大的背景下，国内需求变动才是影响价格的主因。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。为改善这一产业链利润分配失调局面，一方面，可以继续使用针对性的减税降费措施，改善下游、中小企业的现金流，但考虑到目前财政收支形势的困境，结构性的财政政策发挥作用的空间也是有限的。另一方面，依然要从总量层面扩大总需求，在经济还未恢复到疫情正常水平时，应坚定不移的使用扩张性宏观管理政策，不应对大宗商品价格走势过度反应。\n——朱鹤、盛中明 中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）青年研究员\n近期，部分大宗商品价格走高，带动PPI快速回正，有观点认为这是典型的输入性通胀。梳理已有学术研究和事实可以发现，输入性通胀有其特定的作用机制，中国的现实并不完全满足其作用条件。\n目前PPI的阶段性上扬固然与大宗商品价格上涨有关，但与所谓的“输入性通胀”相差甚远，不应将其误读为“输入性通胀”，以免造成决策误判。\n1、输入性通胀的定义与机制\n\n\n\n\n\n\n1. 学术论文如何定义输入性通胀\n\n\n\n\n\n\n输入性通货膨胀，即由外部经济因素变化引起的国内物价总水平的上涨。\n国际上对输入性通胀（Imported Inflation）的研究始于20世纪70年代的石油危机期间，Cagan（1980）在对1971-1974 年美国通货膨胀的研究中，将国内物价上涨主要归因于外部冲击，提出这种外部传导的通货膨胀无法有效地通过国内的货币政策进行控制。Kolodko（1987）将输入型通胀定义为一种“由超过供给的有效需求的异常流入或不断增加的进口成本引起的”物价上涨趋势。\n但从最近半个世纪两次国际大宗商品持续大幅涨价的历史来看，输入性通胀对似乎不能很好地解释同时期内各国的通胀差异。\n弗里德曼（1979）曾比较了石油危机期间美国、日本、德国和英国的通胀水平，发现各国的通胀水平并不都随油价的上涨而同步变化，输入性通胀难以解释各国通胀的差异。\n他指出，20世纪70年代初期，日本和英国的通胀率每年在30%以上，而美国的通胀率在10%左右，德国不到5%。在1973年石油危机之后的五年里，德国和日本的通货膨胀减慢了，德国每年的通胀率从大约7%减到不足5%，日本从30%以上减到5%；美国的通货膨胀却在之后一年达到最高峰，约12%，1976 年降到5%，然后在1979年又升到13%以上。\n他还指出，“德国和日本是100%依靠进口石油的，可是它们在降低通胀率方面，却比50%石油依靠进口的美国、或是已成为大产油国的英国做得好。”以上显著的差异并不能用石油危机的冲击来解释。\n伍戈（2011）也梳理了21世纪初到2008年国际油价上涨趋势中不同国家通胀的不同表现，发现各国通胀率基本稳定在4%-5%以内，显著低于20世纪70年代石油危机期间10%-20%以上的涨幅，通胀自身的波动性更加缓和，且其与大宗商品价格的联动性似乎也在减弱。在国际大宗商品价格冲击下，德国、日本这类石油依存度高的国家通胀率保持在较低水平；而美国石油依存度相对较低，但通胀率反而较高。作为产油大国，英国的通胀率却是这四国中最高的。\n这些基本事实表明，用输入型通胀或外部成本冲击不能很好解释各国在通胀方面的差异表现。\n2. 输入性通胀的传导机制\n现有学术研究一般将外部因素对国内物价水平的影响途径分为三类，然后构建计量模型对相应传导机制进行验证。\n这些计量模型大多使用国际商品价格、其他国家的货币供应量等指标反映外部因素，作为解释变量，将国内CPI、PPI的变动作为被解释变量，然后使用不同模型验证外部因素对国内物价水平是否有显著影响，以及解释力度如何。\n我们发现，已有的学术研究的研究结论存在比较明显的差异。\n2.1 成本推动机制下的输入性通胀\n传导机制：进口商品价格上升推高了国内基础产品的成本，在没有超额需求的条件下，成本提高会引起价格水平的普遍上涨，带来成本推动型的通胀。\n当前对输入性通胀的讨论主要都是基于这个逻辑。但是，上述机制要发挥作用，至少要满足三个必要条件：\n一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者，国内的供需状态基本无法对国际商品价格产生影响，且本国的汇率升值不能抵消进口价格的上涨。\n如若不然，“输入性”也就无从谈起。这也是为什么这一机制在“小国开放经济”模型中会有显著作用。\n二是国外进口原材料的成本在国内生产成本中占主要部分，其价格变动会显著影响国内产成品的价格。\n艾进等（2015）根据物价水平受劳动力、原材料、土地三大要素价格影响的模型计算，发现CPI 对三大要素价格的平均反应弹性分别为0.16、0.08 和0.02，由此计算出2009年8月至2010年9月劳动力、原材料、土地价格从成本角度对CPI 的贡献比例分别为74%、17%和9%。可见在成本因素中，劳动力成本占据绝对主导地位。\nLe Blanc等（2014）也曾指出，20世纪70年代石油危机带来的油价上涨对美、日、法等发达国家的通货膨胀造成了很大影响，但2000年之后，油价对这些国家通胀的影响变得十分有限。\nBernank等(2004) 也发现，进入21世纪以后大宗商品价格对CPI影响较小，他们总结的原因在于原材料占总成本比重变小，且部分成本已经被生产商或经销商利润所吸收。\n三是PPI对CPI有通畅的传导效应。王京晶（2011）在对输入性通胀进行研究时发现，国际金融衍生品价格、进口价格主要改变生产厂商的生产要素价格, 最终表现为PPI的变动。但是，由于PPI与CPI之间传导不通畅，输入型通胀因素对CPI波动的影响程度被大大削弱。\n2.2 贸易机制下的输入性通胀\n传导逻辑：当国外出现通货膨胀、价格上涨时，会刺激出口商更多向外国出口商品，同时抑制本国居民对国外进口商品的消费，而转为增加对本国商品的消费，最终带来国内总需求增加，引发国内通胀。上述机制如要成立，也要满足两个必要条件：\n一是固定汇率。在上述价格机制下，国外的通胀因素如果要对贸易结构产生作用，就必须要求本国的汇率固定，否则国内外价格的相对变动会体现为汇率的变化。\n二是本国出口商品的供给价格弹性和进口商品的需求价格弹性都要足够大。如果本国出口商品的供给价格弹性小，即使国外价格变动很大，国内出口也不会受到很大影响。同时，如果国内对进口商品的需求价格弹性也小，进口商品涨价不会显著影响需求量。\n2.3 稳汇率导致的输入性通胀\n传导机制：当国外出现通货膨胀和价格上涨时，会造成外币相对于本币的贬值，本币升值预期会造成大量国际资本的流入。出于维护本国汇率稳定的目的，本国央行会被动增加货币供给，进而刺激国内总需求并导致通胀。\n这种机制成立的必要条件是保持汇率稳定是央行的重要目标。换言之，在三难选择中央行实际上放弃了货币政策的独立性，选择了汇率稳定和资本自由流动。\n2011年关于输入性通胀的讨论\n当前，国际大宗商品市场存在一定的涨价趋势，部分观点将这一趋势与国内PPI的上行相关联，提出对“输入性通胀”的担忧。我们可以简单复盘上一轮关于输入性通胀的集中讨论，也就是2011年。\n如图1所示，当时CPI当月同比增速从2010年初开始持续冲高至2011年7月6.5%，PPI增速也运行在7%左右的高位。当时的经济背景是，全球正处于应对国际金融冲击后的政策大宽松时期，国际大宗商品价格飙升。北海布伦特与WTI原油收盘价均在2011年上半年突破100美元/桶，当年4月，伦敦金属交易所的铜、锡、铅、铝价格同比分别上涨21.4%、72.3%、25.7%和13.9%。芝加哥交易所的玉米、小麦、大豆、豆油价格分别上涨了96.2%、61.2%、44%和48.6%。\n图1：2009-2013年CPI与PPI月同比增速（%）走势\n\n在这样的背景下，市场和学界围绕防范输入性通货膨胀风险展开了一定讨论。\n彭森（2012）全面分析了全球的宽松货币环境、国际资金炒作大宗商品、石油生产国政治不稳定和经济恢复等因素对国内通胀的影响；并从数据表现上描述了国际商品价格通过商品、资本和信息流动渠道对国内价格的传导。\n但是，伍戈（2011）则梳理了输入型通胀的内涵及其传导机理，发现输入性通胀并不能解释历史上各国通胀的差异；并尝试用货币存量与经济总量的偏离程度解释上述通胀差异，有较好的解释效果，由此提出抑制国内通胀的首要手段依然是控制好国内货币总量。中国发展研究基金会也在2011年6月组织研讨会分析当时通胀的成因和趋势。\n简单复盘当时的宏观背景，不难发现国内的刺激政策才是造成通胀的主要原因，所谓国际大宗商品价格上涨，一定程度上是“出口转内销”的结果。\n为应对全球性金融危机, “4万亿”刺激计划逐步推进, 2009年和2010年我国M1 和M2增速均处于20%以上, M2与GDP同比增速差额和M2占GDP比重均处在当时的历史高位。同时，2009年和2010年新增信贷额分别达到9.58万亿元和7.92万亿元。\n根据当时中金公司（2011）的一项测算，2008-2010年，中国贡献了全球新增货币中的60%。[数据来源于《中国发展研究基金会研究参考》2011年第19号，其中记录了当时中金公司代表在2011年6月3日由中国发展研究基金会主办的宏观经济形势分析会上的发言，发言中对这一数据做了表述。]\n大规模资金主要以政策驱动、政府投资的形式进入实体经济, 激发了国内的投资需求和消费需求，稳定了经济增长，但也形成了阶段性的超额需求，抬升了总体价格水平。当相关基建逐渐转换为生产力、促进生产率和总供给的扩大之后，当时的通胀形势也逐渐缓和下来，到了2011年12月，CPI月同比增速开始回落至4.1%，此后又逐步降至2012年7月份的1.8%。\n从结果看，2011年恰是那一轮商品价格的高点，同时也是全球通胀水平的周期性高点。自那以后，全球大宗商品进入了持续5年的下跌周期，对抗通缩压力成为了新的主旋律。\n现阶段中国不具备输入性通胀的条件\n1. 基本事实：PPI明显强于CPI\n从CPI观察价格走势，其主导因素仍集中于食品供给端和疫后需求恢复。猪肉供给持续恢复会带动整体CPI下行，服务业复苏加快，但距离常态还有一定距离，核心CPI已经脱离底部，但持续上行速率不会太高。\n2021年1-3月，CPI累计增速为零，整体CPI的走势依然数主要受高基数和猪肉供给增强的影响。\n1-3月食品类CPI累计同比增速为0.2%，较去年同期20.3%的高增速下降了20.1个百分点。食品类消费品中，猪肉依旧是最大的扰动因素。受此前春节期间冷冻肉投放增加和生猪存栏持续恢复影响，22省市平均猪肉价格已经从2021年1月1日的48.83元/千克降至4月2日的38.9/千克，降幅20.3%。CPI中的猪肉分项在1-3月的累计降幅也达到12.5%，拉动整体CPI在低位运行。\n此外，今年1-3月份，全国未出现影响较大的极端天气，保证了鲜菜等时令性食品供给的充足，鲜菜类CPI1-3月累计同比增速4.8%，较去年同期下降了4.2个百分点。\n图2：CPI与食品分项、猪肉分项月累计同比增速走势\n\n图3：生猪供给对本轮猪价变动起到主要作用\n\n观察剔除了能源和食品影响的核心CPI走势，可见其自2018年以来一路下行的趋势。在2020年，受疫情冲击后的需求收缩影响，这一下行趋势的速率明显加快。2020年，当核心CPI当月同比增速在3月份触及1.2%后，继续一路下降到12月的0.4%。进入2021年，核心CPI当月同比增速为-0.3%，达到历史最低值。但在3月份，当月同比增速0.3%，核心CPI脱离了持续下行的趋势。这主要来源于，2月份以来，我国疫情防控基本扑灭了1月份各地的局部聚集疫情，服务性消费恢复走上了正轨。\n图4：核心CPI与服务CPI当月同比增速走势\n\n展望整体CPI走势，食品尤其是猪肉供需状态仍是不容忽视的因素。根据农业农村部相关负责人表示，按2020年的各月生猪存栏量环比平均递增2.1%的速度，预计到2021年6月份左右，生猪存栏量就会完全恢复到2017年的存栏水平。所以，整体CPI的在下一阶段下行的动力依旧显著。还要注意到服务业逐步恢复但节奏仍偏缓慢，疫后居民消费需求依然偏弱，核心CPI脱离底部后上行的速率预计仍会较低。\n市场普遍谈论的通胀压力实际上主要集中于PPI。3月份PPI同比增4.4%，环比增1.6%，为历史最高环比涨幅。我们用每个工业行业的规模以上企业2020年的营收占比作为权重，按照《上证产业链指数系列编制方案》中的上中下游划分办法，可以计算出上中下游工业行业各自的PPI当月同比增速（图5）。可以发现，整体工业品的价格上涨在数据表现主要来源于产业链上游行业的涨价。\n图5：按营收权重分解上中下游工业行业PPI当月同比增速(%)\n\n但上游工业行业的涨价也并不能一概而论，我们以2020年1月2日的价格为基期，以2021年4月23日的最新数据观察黑色、有色、原油和农产品四大类大宗商品在疫情之后的南华商品指数变动（图6）。与疫情之前相比，黑色金属涨幅最大（152%），其次是有色金属（39%），接着是农产品（19%），而原油则仍有33%的跌幅。\n图6：各类大宗商品的南华商品指数走势\n\n2. 中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险\n如前文所述，输入性通胀有三种主要作用机制（图7），当前讨论实际上基本集中在成本推动途径上。\n综合来看，要产生输入性通胀，至少有要有三个条件：一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者；二是固定汇率制度的安排；三是国内各类工业品价格和消费品价格的通畅传导。\n现阶段，这三个条件在中国基本都不成立，中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险。\n图7：输入性通胀三种主要作用机制和必要条件\n\n首先，中国是全球第二大经济体，并不是作为价格接受者的小国经济。中国对大宗商品的需求会对国际大宗商品价格产生显著影响。\n王安建和王高尚（2019）的研究表明，2018 年全球主要40 种矿产资源中，我国有30种矿产消费量居世界第一位[数据来源于《全球矿产资源战略研究工作报告》，王安建、王高尚主编。]。\n根据统计（图8），我国能源和重要矿产消费量中占全球比例超过50%的矿种有12种，超过40%的有23种。这些矿产资源中不乏煤炭、水泥灰岩、铁、锰、铜、铝、铅、锌和磷等大宗。\n图8：2018 年中国主要矿产消费量占全球比例\n数据来源：王安建,高芯蕊.中国能源与重要矿产资源需求展望[J].中国科学院院刊,2020,35(03):338-344.\n其次，经过多年的改革，目前人民币汇率的弹性大大增强，能够比较充分反映各类经济信息。本轮大宗商品价格上涨的过程中，汇率升值对依赖外部进口的大宗商品价格上涨事实上起到了对冲作用。（图9）。\n图9：南华商品综合指数与人民币汇率指数走势\n\n最后，在本轮经济复苏过程中，CPI和PPI则出现明显背离，只有PPI在快速上升，更能综合反映物价变化的GDP平减指数也没有显著上升。即使中国经济已经持续复苏了4个季度，实际面临的通胀压力也并不大。\n这种背离并不是新现象。2016年之后，PPI与CPI就一直存在持续背离。这至少说明，过去五年里，并没有看到PPI能够向CPI传导的有效证据，从生产端向消费端的价格传导机制并不顺畅。\n综上可知，中国不具备输入性通胀的基础，不必担忧所谓的输入性通胀。国内经济的恢复节奏和结构特征可以解释大部分的大宗商品价格上涨。如前文图6所示，当前国内大宗商品的价格上涨最突出是黑色金属的涨价，有色金属位于其次。而2021年3月分行业的PPI同比增速中，黑色金属的采选业以34.7%的增速位居全行业最高，黑色金属加工业21.5%的增速也位居前列；有色金属加工（21.3%）和有色金属采选（13.3%）的高PPI增速也与有色价格的上涨互相印证。而结合图8数据，在黑色金属中，我国对铬的需求量全球占比超过60%，对锰和铁的需求量则接近50%；有色金属中，我国对钨的需求量全球占比接近80%，对铝、铜的需求量也超过50%。在我国对主要金属矿产需求占全球需求量如此巨大的背景下，国内需求变动才是影响价格的主因。\n通胀是总量问题，通胀的表述隐含着经济过热的意义，这会对货币政策形成掣肘。近两个月的宏观数据表明，我国经济尚处于复苏通道中，核心CPI也刚刚脱离连续下滑的趋势，许多服务性行业虽然在持续恢复，但距离常态还有一定距离，此时讨论通胀压力为时尚早。\n应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。2016年之后，上游行业占工业企业利润的比重显著上升，2019年略有下降，但依然比2016年之前的水平更高。\n为改善这一产业链利润分配失调局面，一方面，可以继续使用针对性的减税降费措施，改善下游、中小企业的现金流，但考虑到目前财政收支形势的困境，结构性的财政政策发挥作用的空间也是有限的。另一方面，依然要从总量层面扩大总需求，在经济还未恢复到疫情正常水平时，应坚定不移的使用扩张性宏观管理政策，不应对大宗商品价格走势过度反应。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":107520920,"gmtCreate":1620523292860,"gmtModify":1704344540122,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3561544476596136","authorIdStr":"3561544476596136"},"htmlText":"請點贊和回覆。謝謝?","listText":"請點贊和回覆。謝謝?","text":"請點贊和回覆。謝謝?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107520920","repostId":1119886772,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119886772","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620436108,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119886772?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-08 09:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Does China need to worry about imported inflation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119886772","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：我国不具备输入性通胀的三个条件。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。\n\n近","content":"Abstract: China does not have three conditions for imported inflation. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. But on the whole, there are at least three conditions to produce imported inflation: first, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage, these three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China does not have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rising commodity prices-Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it.The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industrial chain, on the one hand,We can continue to use targeted tax and fee reduction measures to improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprisesHowever, considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, the space for structural fiscal policy to play a role is also limited. On the other hand,It is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends.--Zhu He and Sheng Zhongming, young researchers at China Financial Forty Forum (CF40)Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. Combing the existing academic research and facts can find that,Imported inflation has its specific mechanism, and China's reality does not fully meet its conditions.The current phased rise in PPI is certainly related to the rise in commodity prices, but it is far from the so-called \"imported inflation\", should not be misunderstood as \"imported inflation\" to avoid misjudgment in decision-making.1. Definition and mechanism of imported inflation1. How academic papers define imported inflationImported inflation refers to the increase of the overall domestic price level caused by the change of external economic factors.International research on Imported Inflation (Imported Inflation) began during the oil crisis in 1970s. In his study of American inflation from 1971 to 1974, Cagan (1980) mainly attributed the domestic price increase to external shocks, and proposed that this externally transmitted inflation cannot be effectively controlled through domestic monetary policy. Kolodko (1987) defines imported inflation as an upward trend in prices \"caused by abnormal inflows of effective demand in excess of supply or increasing import costs\".However, judging from the history of two continuous sharp price increases of international commodities in the last half century, it seems that imported inflation pairs cannot well explain the inflation differences among countries during the same period.Friedman (1979) compared the inflation levels of the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom during the oil crisis, and found that the inflation levels of various countries did not all change synchronously with the rise of oil prices, and imported inflation was difficult to explain the differences in inflation among countries.He noted that in the early 1970s, inflation in Japan and the UK was above 30% a year, while inflation in the US was around 10% and Germany was less than 5%. In the five years after the oil crisis in 1973, inflation in Germany and Japan slowed down. The annual inflation rate in Germany decreased from about 7% to less than 5%, and that in Japan decreased from more than 30% to 5%; Inflation in the United States reached its peak in the following year, about 12%, dropped to 5% in 1976, and then rose to more than 13% in 1979.He also pointed out that \"Germany and Japan are 100% imported oil, but they have done a better job of reducing inflation than the United States, which imports 50% of oil, or Britain, which has become a big oil producer.\" These significant differences cannot be explained by the impact of the oil crisis.Wu Ge (2011) also sorted out the different manifestations of inflation in different countries in the rising trend of international oil prices from the beginning of the 21st century to 2008, and found that the inflation rate in various countries was basically stable within 4%-5%, which was significantly lower than the 10% during the oil crisis in the 1970s. With an increase of more than 20%, the volatility of inflation itself has become more moderate, and its linkage with commodity prices seems to be weakening. Under the impact of international commodity prices, the inflation rate of countries with high oil dependence such as Germany and Japan has remained at a low level; The U.S. oil dependence is relatively low, but the inflation rate is relatively high. As a major oil producer, Britain's inflation rate is the highest among the four countries.These basic facts show that,Imported inflation or external cost shocks cannot well explain the differences in inflation performance among countries.2. Transmission mechanism of imported inflationThe existing academic research generally divides the influence ways of external factors on domestic price level into three categories, and then constructs an econometric model to verify the corresponding transmission mechanism.Most of these econometric models use indicators such as international commodity prices and money supply of other countries to reflect external factors as explanatory variables, and take changes in domestic CPI and PPI as explained variables. Then, different models are used to verify whether external factors have a significant impact on domestic price levels and how strong the explanation is.We found that there are obvious differences in the research conclusions of the existing academic studies.2.1 Imported inflation under the cost push mechanismTransmission mechanism: Rising prices of imported goods push up the cost of domestic basic products. In the absence of excess demand, rising costs will cause a general increase in price levels and bring about cost-driven inflation.The current discussion on imported inflation is mainly based on this logic. But,For the above mechanism to work, at least three necessary conditions must be met:First, China is the recipient of international commodity price changes, and the domestic supply and demand state basically cannot affect international commodity prices, and the appreciation of its exchange rate cannot offset the increase of import prices.Otherwise, \"input\" will be impossible to talk about. This is why this mechanism will play a significant role in the model of \"small country open economy\".Second, the cost of imported raw materials accounts for the main part of domestic production costs, and its price changes will significantly affect the price of domestic finished products.Ai Jin et al. (2015) calculated according to the model that the price level is affected by the prices of labor, raw materials and land, and found that the average response elasticity of CPI to the prices of the three factors was 0.16, 0.08 and 0.02, respectively. From August 2009 to September 2010, the contribution ratios of labor, raw materials and land prices to CPI from the perspective of cost were 74%, 17% and 9% respectively. It can be seen that among the cost factors, labor cost occupies an absolutely dominant position.Le Blanc et al. (2014) also pointed out that the rise in oil prices brought about by the oil crisis in 1970s had a great impact on inflation in developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and France. However, after 2000, the impact of oil prices on inflation in these countries became very limited.Bernank et al. (2004) also found that after entering the 21st century, commodity prices have little impact on CPI. The reason they concluded is that the proportion of raw materials in the total cost has become smaller, and part of the cost has been absorbed by the profits of manufacturers or distributors.Third, PPI has a smooth transmission effect on CPI.When Wang Jingjing (2011) studied imported inflation, he found that the price of international financial derivatives and import price mainly changed the price of production factors of manufacturers, which ultimately showed the change of PPI. However, due to the poor transmission between PPI and CPI, the influence of imported inflation factors on CPI fluctuations has been greatly weakened.2.2 Imported inflation under the trade mechanismTransmission logic: When inflation and price rises occur abroad, it will stimulate exporters to export more goods to foreign countries, and at the same time restrain domestic residents' consumption of foreign imported goods, and instead increase the consumption of domestic goods, which will ultimately bring about domestic total demand. Increased demand triggers domestic inflation.If the above mechanism is to be established, it must also meet two necessary conditions:One is a fixed exchange rate.Under the above-mentioned price mechanism, if foreign inflation factors want to have an effect on the trade structure, they must require the domestic exchange rate to be fixed, otherwise the relative changes of domestic and foreign prices will be reflected in changes in exchange rates.Second, the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities and the demand price elasticity of imported commodities should be large enough。 If the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities is small, even if foreign prices change greatly, domestic exports will not be greatly affected. At the same time, if the price elasticity of domestic demand for imported goods is also small, the price increase of imported goods will not significantly affect the demand.2.3 Imported inflation caused by stable exchange rateTransmission mechanism: When inflation and price increase occur abroad, it will cause the foreign currency to depreciate relative to the local currency, and the appreciation of the local currency is expected to cause a large inflow of international capital. For the purpose of maintaining the stability of the country's exchange rate, the country's central bank will passively increase the money supply, thereby stimulating domestic aggregate demand and leading to inflation.The necessary condition for the establishment of this mechanism is that maintaining exchange rate stability is an important goal of the central bank. In other words, in the trilemma, the central bank actually gave up the independence of monetary policy and chose exchange rate stability and free capital flow.Discussion on imported inflation in 2011At present, there is a certain price increase trend in the international commodity market. Some views associate this trend with the upward trend of domestic PPI and raise concerns about \"imported inflation\". We can simply focus on the last round of concentrated discussion on imported inflation in review, that is, in 2011.As shown in Figure 1, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI continued to rise from the beginning of 2010 to 6.5% in July 2011, and the growth rate of PPI also ran at a high level of around 7%. The economic background at that time was that the world was in a period of great policy easing after responding to the international financial shock, and international commodity prices soared. The closing prices of North Sea Brent and WTI crude oil both exceeded US $100/barrel in the first half of 2011. In April of that year, the prices of copper, tin, lead and aluminum on the London Metal Exchange rose by 21.4%, 72.3%, 25.7% and 13.9% respectively year-on-year.%. The prices of corn, wheat, soybeans and soybean oil on the Chicago Exchange rose by 96.2%, 61.2%, 44% and 48.6% respectively.Figure 1: 2009-2013 CPI and PPI monthly year-on-year growth rate (%) trend<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0189eeea4f2edbd48077b454feb916b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Under this background, the market and academic circles have held some discussions on preventing the risk of imported inflation.Peng Sen (2012) comprehensively analyzed the impact of factors such as the global loose monetary environment, international capital speculation on commodities, political instability and economic recovery in oil producing countries on domestic inflation; From the data performance, it describes the transmission of international commodity prices to domestic prices through commodity, capital and information flow channels.However, Wu Ge (2011) sorted out the connotation and transmission mechanism of imported inflation, and found that imported inflation could not explain the differences in inflation among countries in history; And try to explain the above inflation difference with the deviation between the money stock and the economic aggregate, which has a good explanatory effect. Therefore, it is proposed that the primary means to curb domestic inflation is still to control the domestic money aggregate. China Development Research Foundation also organized a seminar in June 2011 to analyze the causes and trends of inflation at that time.Simply review's macro background at that time, it is not difficult to findDomestic stimulus policies are the main cause of inflation. The so-called rise in international commodity prices is, to a certain extent, the result of \"export to domestic sales\".In response to the global financial crisis, the \"4 trillion\" stimulus plan was gradually promoted. In 2009 and 2010, my country's M1 and M2 growth rates were both above 20%. The difference between the year-on-year growth rates of M2 and GDP and the proportion of M2 to GDP were both at that time. historical highs. At the same time, the amount of new credit in 2009 and 2010 reached 9.58 trillion yuan and 7.92 trillion yuan respectively.According to a calculation by CICC (2011) at that time, from 2008 to 2010, China contributed 60% of the world's new currency. [The data comes from \"China Development Research Foundation Research Reference\" No. 19, 2011, which recorded the speech made by the representative of CICC at the macroeconomic situation analysis meeting hosted by China Development Research Foundation on June 3, 2011, in which this data was stated.]Large-scale funds mainly enter the real economy in the form of policy-driven and government investment, which stimulates domestic investment demand and consumer demand and stabilizes economic growth, but also forms periodic excess demand and raises the overall price level. When related infrastructure was gradually converted into productivity, promoting the expansion of productivity and total supply, the inflation situation at that time gradually eased. By December 2011, the monthly CPI growth rate began to fall back to 4.1%, and then gradually dropped to 1.8% in July 2012.As a result, 2011 was the high point of that round of commodity prices, and it was also the cyclical high point of global inflation. Since then, global commodities have entered a five-year downward cycle, and fighting deflationary pressures has become the new main theme.China does not have the conditions for imported inflation at this stage1. Basic fact: PPI is significantly stronger than CPIObserving the price trend from CPI, the dominant factors are still concentrated on the food supply side and the recovery of post-epidemic demand.The continued recovery of pork supply will drive the overall CPI down, and the recovery of the service industry will accelerate, but there is still a certain distance from normal. The core CPI has left the bottom, but the continued upward rate will not be too high.From January to March 2021, the cumulative growth rate of CPI was zero, and the overall CPI trend was still mainly affected by the high base and increased pork supply.The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of food CPI from January to March was 0.2%, which was 20.1 percentage points lower than the high growth rate of 20.3% in the same period last year. Among food consumer goods, pork is still the biggest disturbance factor. Affected by the increase in frozen meat delivery during the Spring Festival and the continuous recovery of live pigs, the average pork price in 22 provinces and cities has dropped from 48.83 yuan/kg on January 1, 2021 to 38.9/kg on April 2, a decrease of 20.3%. The cumulative decline of the pork sub-item in the CPI from January to March also reached 12.5%, driving the overall CPI to run at a low level.In addition, from January to March this year, there was no extreme weather with great impact in the country, which ensured the sufficient supply of seasonal foods such as fresh vegetables. The cumulative growth rate of fresh vegetables CPI from January to March was 4.8% year-on-year, down 4.2 percentage points from the same period last year. percentage points.Figure 2: Monthly cumulative year-on-year growth trend of CPI, food sub-items, and pork sub-items<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c113e7896f0edf18eb10f5b04adb8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Figure 3: Pig supply plays a major role in this round of pig price changes<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c04dfc28112ae1a659c197c6371208\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Observing the core CPI trend excluding the impact of energy and food, it can be seen that it has been downward since 2018. In 2020, affected by the contraction of demand after the impact of the epidemic, the rate of this downward trend has accelerated significantly.In 2020, when the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI hit 1.2% in March, it continued to fall all the way to 0.4% in December. Entering 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI in that month was-0.3%, reaching a historical low. However, in March, the year-on-year growth rate was 0.3%, and the core CPI broke away from the continuous downward trend. This mainly comes from the fact that since February, my country's epidemic prevention and control has basically extinguished local epidemic clusters in various places in January, and the recovery of service consumption is on the right track.Figure 4: Year-on-year growth trend of core CPI and service CPI in that month<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a3a2b093ec625ab2948977a9fbd2cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking forward to the overall CPI trend, the supply and demand of food, especially pork, is still a factor that cannot be ignored.According to the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, according to the average increase rate of 2.1% month-on-month in the number of live pigs in each month of 2020, it is expected that by around June 2021, the number of live pigs will fully recover to the level of 2017. Therefore, the downward momentum of the overall CPI in the next stage is still significant. It should also be noted that the service industry is gradually recovering but the pace is still slow. After the epidemic, residents' consumption demand is still weak, and the upward rate of the core CPI after it breaks away from the bottom is expected to remain low.The inflationary pressures commonly talked about in the market are actually mainly concentrated on PPI。 In March, PPI increased by 4.4% year-on-year and 1.6% month-on-month, the highest month-on-month increase in history. We use the revenue proportion of enterprises above designated size in each industrial industry in 2020 as the weight. According to the upstream, midstream and downstream division method in the \"Shanghai Stock Exchange Industry Chain Index Series Compilation Plan\", we can calculate the respective PPIs of the upstream, midstream and downstream industrial industries in that month. Year-on-year growth rate (Figure 5). It can be found that the overall price increase of industrial products mainly comes from the price increase of upstream industries in the industrial chain.Figure 5: Decomposition of PPI growth rate of upstream, midstream and downstream industrial sectors by revenue weight (%)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aab13d68f58375336de5030f918d5fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, the price increase of the upstream industrial industry cannot be generalized. We use the price on January 2, 2020 as the base period, and use the latest data on April 23, 2021 to observe the price increase of the four major categories of bulk commodities: black, nonferrous metals, crude oil and agricultural products. Changes in the South China Commodity Index after the epidemic (Figure 6). Compared with pre-pandemic, ferrous metals rose the most (152%), followed by non-ferrous metals (39%), followed by agricultural products (19%), while crude oil still suffered a 33% decline.Figure 6: South China Commodity Index Trends of Various Commodities<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a327db62ac8614240225e9e4a91ff5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. China does not need to worry about the risk of imported inflationAs mentioned earlier, there are three main mechanisms of imported inflation (Figure 7), and the current discussion actually basically focuses on the cost-driving approach.Taken together,To produce imported inflation, there are at least three conditions:First, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage,These three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China doesn't have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.Figure 7: Three main mechanisms and necessary conditions of imported inflation<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079a9dc08120e455d5ea8fcbb744ee74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">First, China is the second largest economy in the world, not a small country as a price-taker。 China's demand for commodities will have a significant impact on international commodity prices.The research of Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang (2019) shows that among the 40 major mineral resources in the world in 2018, 30 mineral consumption in China ranked first in the world [data from Global Mineral Resources Strategy Research Work Report, edited by Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang.].According to statistics (Figure 8), there are 12 kinds of minerals accounting for more than 50% of the world's energy and important mineral consumption in China, and 23 kinds account for more than 40%. These mineral resources include coal, cement limestone, iron, manganese, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and phosphorus.Figure 8: China's major mineral consumption accounted for global proportion in 2018<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/095cf77cf2d2bfb4cd658c3b914490d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wang Anjian, Gao Xinrui. Outlook for China's energy and important mineral resources demand [J]. Proceedings of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2020, 35 (03): 338-344.Secondly, after years of reform, the flexibility of RMB exchange rate has been greatly enhanced at present, which can fully reflect all kinds of economic information.In the process of this round of rising commodity prices, the appreciation of exchange rate has actually played a hedging role in rising commodity prices that rely on external imports. (Figure 9).Figure 9: Trends of South China Commodity Composite Index and RMB Exchange Rate Index<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12aa64af51e8b77972eb748a495ffc48\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, during this round of economic recovery, CPI and PPI have obviously diverged. Only PPI is rising rapidly, and the GDP deflator, which can better reflect price changes, has not risen significantly.Even though China's economy has continued to recover for four quarters, the actual inflationary pressure it faces is not great.This divergence is not a new phenomenon. After 2016, there has been a continuous divergence between PPI and CPI. This at least shows that,In the past five years, there has been no effective evidence that PPI can be transmitted to CPI, and the price transmission mechanism from the production side to the consumer side is not smooth.To sum up, China does not have the basis for imported inflation, so there is no need to worry about the so-called imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rise in commodity prices.As shown in Figure 6 above, the current price increase of domestic commodities is the most prominent price increase of ferrous metals, followed by non-ferrous metals. Among the year-on-year growth rates of PPI by industry in March 2021, the ferrous metal mining and dressing industry ranked the highest in the industry with a growth rate of 34.7%, and the ferrous metal processing industry also ranked at the forefront with a growth rate of 21.5%; The high PPI growth rates of non-ferrous metal processing (21.3%) and non-ferrous metal mining (13.3%) also confirm the rise in non-ferrous metal prices. Combined with the data in Figure 8, among ferrous metals, China's demand for chromium accounts for more than 60% of the world, and its demand for manganese and iron is close to 50%; Among non-ferrous metals, my country's demand for tungsten accounts for nearly 80% of the world, and its demand for aluminum and copper also exceeds 50%.Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices.Inflation is a total issue, and the expression of inflation implies the meaning of economic overheating, which will constrain monetary policy. The macro data of the past two months shows that my country's economy is still in the recovery channel, and the core CPI has just broken away from the continuous downward trend. Although many service industries continue to recover, they are still a certain distance from normal. It is too early to discuss inflationary pressure at this time.To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits.After 2016, the proportion of upstream industries in the profits of industrial enterprises increased significantly, and declined slightly in 2019, but it was still higher than the level before 2016.In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industry chain,On the one hand, we can continue to use targeted tax reduction and fee reduction measures,Improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprises, but considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, there is limited room for structural fiscal policies to play a role.On the other hand, it is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends。","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does China need to worry about imported inflation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoes China need to worry about imported inflation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-05-08 09:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAbstract: China does not have three conditions for imported inflation. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. But on the whole, there are at least three conditions to produce imported inflation: first, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage, these three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China does not have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rising commodity prices-Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it.The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industrial chain, on the one hand,We can continue to use targeted tax and fee reduction measures to improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprisesHowever, considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, the space for structural fiscal policy to play a role is also limited. On the other hand,It is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends.--Zhu He and Sheng Zhongming, young researchers at China Financial Forty Forum (CF40)Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. Combing the existing academic research and facts can find that,Imported inflation has its specific mechanism, and China's reality does not fully meet its conditions.The current phased rise in PPI is certainly related to the rise in commodity prices, but it is far from the so-called \"imported inflation\", should not be misunderstood as \"imported inflation\" to avoid misjudgment in decision-making.1. Definition and mechanism of imported inflation1. How academic papers define imported inflationImported inflation refers to the increase of the overall domestic price level caused by the change of external economic factors.International research on Imported Inflation (Imported Inflation) began during the oil crisis in 1970s. In his study of American inflation from 1971 to 1974, Cagan (1980) mainly attributed the domestic price increase to external shocks, and proposed that this externally transmitted inflation cannot be effectively controlled through domestic monetary policy. Kolodko (1987) defines imported inflation as an upward trend in prices \"caused by abnormal inflows of effective demand in excess of supply or increasing import costs\".However, judging from the history of two continuous sharp price increases of international commodities in the last half century, it seems that imported inflation pairs cannot well explain the inflation differences among countries during the same period.Friedman (1979) compared the inflation levels of the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom during the oil crisis, and found that the inflation levels of various countries did not all change synchronously with the rise of oil prices, and imported inflation was difficult to explain the differences in inflation among countries.He noted that in the early 1970s, inflation in Japan and the UK was above 30% a year, while inflation in the US was around 10% and Germany was less than 5%. In the five years after the oil crisis in 1973, inflation in Germany and Japan slowed down. The annual inflation rate in Germany decreased from about 7% to less than 5%, and that in Japan decreased from more than 30% to 5%; Inflation in the United States reached its peak in the following year, about 12%, dropped to 5% in 1976, and then rose to more than 13% in 1979.He also pointed out that \"Germany and Japan are 100% imported oil, but they have done a better job of reducing inflation than the United States, which imports 50% of oil, or Britain, which has become a big oil producer.\" These significant differences cannot be explained by the impact of the oil crisis.Wu Ge (2011) also sorted out the different manifestations of inflation in different countries in the rising trend of international oil prices from the beginning of the 21st century to 2008, and found that the inflation rate in various countries was basically stable within 4%-5%, which was significantly lower than the 10% during the oil crisis in the 1970s. With an increase of more than 20%, the volatility of inflation itself has become more moderate, and its linkage with commodity prices seems to be weakening. Under the impact of international commodity prices, the inflation rate of countries with high oil dependence such as Germany and Japan has remained at a low level; The U.S. oil dependence is relatively low, but the inflation rate is relatively high. As a major oil producer, Britain's inflation rate is the highest among the four countries.These basic facts show that,Imported inflation or external cost shocks cannot well explain the differences in inflation performance among countries.2. Transmission mechanism of imported inflationThe existing academic research generally divides the influence ways of external factors on domestic price level into three categories, and then constructs an econometric model to verify the corresponding transmission mechanism.Most of these econometric models use indicators such as international commodity prices and money supply of other countries to reflect external factors as explanatory variables, and take changes in domestic CPI and PPI as explained variables. Then, different models are used to verify whether external factors have a significant impact on domestic price levels and how strong the explanation is.We found that there are obvious differences in the research conclusions of the existing academic studies.2.1 Imported inflation under the cost push mechanismTransmission mechanism: Rising prices of imported goods push up the cost of domestic basic products. In the absence of excess demand, rising costs will cause a general increase in price levels and bring about cost-driven inflation.The current discussion on imported inflation is mainly based on this logic. But,For the above mechanism to work, at least three necessary conditions must be met:First, China is the recipient of international commodity price changes, and the domestic supply and demand state basically cannot affect international commodity prices, and the appreciation of its exchange rate cannot offset the increase of import prices.Otherwise, \"input\" will be impossible to talk about. This is why this mechanism will play a significant role in the model of \"small country open economy\".Second, the cost of imported raw materials accounts for the main part of domestic production costs, and its price changes will significantly affect the price of domestic finished products.Ai Jin et al. (2015) calculated according to the model that the price level is affected by the prices of labor, raw materials and land, and found that the average response elasticity of CPI to the prices of the three factors was 0.16, 0.08 and 0.02, respectively. From August 2009 to September 2010, the contribution ratios of labor, raw materials and land prices to CPI from the perspective of cost were 74%, 17% and 9% respectively. It can be seen that among the cost factors, labor cost occupies an absolutely dominant position.Le Blanc et al. (2014) also pointed out that the rise in oil prices brought about by the oil crisis in 1970s had a great impact on inflation in developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and France. However, after 2000, the impact of oil prices on inflation in these countries became very limited.Bernank et al. (2004) also found that after entering the 21st century, commodity prices have little impact on CPI. The reason they concluded is that the proportion of raw materials in the total cost has become smaller, and part of the cost has been absorbed by the profits of manufacturers or distributors.Third, PPI has a smooth transmission effect on CPI.When Wang Jingjing (2011) studied imported inflation, he found that the price of international financial derivatives and import price mainly changed the price of production factors of manufacturers, which ultimately showed the change of PPI. However, due to the poor transmission between PPI and CPI, the influence of imported inflation factors on CPI fluctuations has been greatly weakened.2.2 Imported inflation under the trade mechanismTransmission logic: When inflation and price rises occur abroad, it will stimulate exporters to export more goods to foreign countries, and at the same time restrain domestic residents' consumption of foreign imported goods, and instead increase the consumption of domestic goods, which will ultimately bring about domestic total demand. Increased demand triggers domestic inflation.If the above mechanism is to be established, it must also meet two necessary conditions:One is a fixed exchange rate.Under the above-mentioned price mechanism, if foreign inflation factors want to have an effect on the trade structure, they must require the domestic exchange rate to be fixed, otherwise the relative changes of domestic and foreign prices will be reflected in changes in exchange rates.Second, the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities and the demand price elasticity of imported commodities should be large enough。 If the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities is small, even if foreign prices change greatly, domestic exports will not be greatly affected. At the same time, if the price elasticity of domestic demand for imported goods is also small, the price increase of imported goods will not significantly affect the demand.2.3 Imported inflation caused by stable exchange rateTransmission mechanism: When inflation and price increase occur abroad, it will cause the foreign currency to depreciate relative to the local currency, and the appreciation of the local currency is expected to cause a large inflow of international capital. For the purpose of maintaining the stability of the country's exchange rate, the country's central bank will passively increase the money supply, thereby stimulating domestic aggregate demand and leading to inflation.The necessary condition for the establishment of this mechanism is that maintaining exchange rate stability is an important goal of the central bank. In other words, in the trilemma, the central bank actually gave up the independence of monetary policy and chose exchange rate stability and free capital flow.Discussion on imported inflation in 2011At present, there is a certain price increase trend in the international commodity market. Some views associate this trend with the upward trend of domestic PPI and raise concerns about \"imported inflation\". We can simply focus on the last round of concentrated discussion on imported inflation in review, that is, in 2011.As shown in Figure 1, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI continued to rise from the beginning of 2010 to 6.5% in July 2011, and the growth rate of PPI also ran at a high level of around 7%. The economic background at that time was that the world was in a period of great policy easing after responding to the international financial shock, and international commodity prices soared. The closing prices of North Sea Brent and WTI crude oil both exceeded US $100/barrel in the first half of 2011. In April of that year, the prices of copper, tin, lead and aluminum on the London Metal Exchange rose by 21.4%, 72.3%, 25.7% and 13.9% respectively year-on-year.%. The prices of corn, wheat, soybeans and soybean oil on the Chicago Exchange rose by 96.2%, 61.2%, 44% and 48.6% respectively.Figure 1: 2009-2013 CPI and PPI monthly year-on-year growth rate (%) trend<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0189eeea4f2edbd48077b454feb916b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Under this background, the market and academic circles have held some discussions on preventing the risk of imported inflation.Peng Sen (2012) comprehensively analyzed the impact of factors such as the global loose monetary environment, international capital speculation on commodities, political instability and economic recovery in oil producing countries on domestic inflation; From the data performance, it describes the transmission of international commodity prices to domestic prices through commodity, capital and information flow channels.However, Wu Ge (2011) sorted out the connotation and transmission mechanism of imported inflation, and found that imported inflation could not explain the differences in inflation among countries in history; And try to explain the above inflation difference with the deviation between the money stock and the economic aggregate, which has a good explanatory effect. Therefore, it is proposed that the primary means to curb domestic inflation is still to control the domestic money aggregate. China Development Research Foundation also organized a seminar in June 2011 to analyze the causes and trends of inflation at that time.Simply review's macro background at that time, it is not difficult to findDomestic stimulus policies are the main cause of inflation. The so-called rise in international commodity prices is, to a certain extent, the result of \"export to domestic sales\".In response to the global financial crisis, the \"4 trillion\" stimulus plan was gradually promoted. In 2009 and 2010, my country's M1 and M2 growth rates were both above 20%. The difference between the year-on-year growth rates of M2 and GDP and the proportion of M2 to GDP were both at that time. historical highs. At the same time, the amount of new credit in 2009 and 2010 reached 9.58 trillion yuan and 7.92 trillion yuan respectively.According to a calculation by CICC (2011) at that time, from 2008 to 2010, China contributed 60% of the world's new currency. [The data comes from \"China Development Research Foundation Research Reference\" No. 19, 2011, which recorded the speech made by the representative of CICC at the macroeconomic situation analysis meeting hosted by China Development Research Foundation on June 3, 2011, in which this data was stated.]Large-scale funds mainly enter the real economy in the form of policy-driven and government investment, which stimulates domestic investment demand and consumer demand and stabilizes economic growth, but also forms periodic excess demand and raises the overall price level. When related infrastructure was gradually converted into productivity, promoting the expansion of productivity and total supply, the inflation situation at that time gradually eased. By December 2011, the monthly CPI growth rate began to fall back to 4.1%, and then gradually dropped to 1.8% in July 2012.As a result, 2011 was the high point of that round of commodity prices, and it was also the cyclical high point of global inflation. Since then, global commodities have entered a five-year downward cycle, and fighting deflationary pressures has become the new main theme.China does not have the conditions for imported inflation at this stage1. Basic fact: PPI is significantly stronger than CPIObserving the price trend from CPI, the dominant factors are still concentrated on the food supply side and the recovery of post-epidemic demand.The continued recovery of pork supply will drive the overall CPI down, and the recovery of the service industry will accelerate, but there is still a certain distance from normal. The core CPI has left the bottom, but the continued upward rate will not be too high.From January to March 2021, the cumulative growth rate of CPI was zero, and the overall CPI trend was still mainly affected by the high base and increased pork supply.The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of food CPI from January to March was 0.2%, which was 20.1 percentage points lower than the high growth rate of 20.3% in the same period last year. Among food consumer goods, pork is still the biggest disturbance factor. Affected by the increase in frozen meat delivery during the Spring Festival and the continuous recovery of live pigs, the average pork price in 22 provinces and cities has dropped from 48.83 yuan/kg on January 1, 2021 to 38.9/kg on April 2, a decrease of 20.3%. The cumulative decline of the pork sub-item in the CPI from January to March also reached 12.5%, driving the overall CPI to run at a low level.In addition, from January to March this year, there was no extreme weather with great impact in the country, which ensured the sufficient supply of seasonal foods such as fresh vegetables. The cumulative growth rate of fresh vegetables CPI from January to March was 4.8% year-on-year, down 4.2 percentage points from the same period last year. percentage points.Figure 2: Monthly cumulative year-on-year growth trend of CPI, food sub-items, and pork sub-items<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c113e7896f0edf18eb10f5b04adb8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Figure 3: Pig supply plays a major role in this round of pig price changes<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c04dfc28112ae1a659c197c6371208\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Observing the core CPI trend excluding the impact of energy and food, it can be seen that it has been downward since 2018. In 2020, affected by the contraction of demand after the impact of the epidemic, the rate of this downward trend has accelerated significantly.In 2020, when the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI hit 1.2% in March, it continued to fall all the way to 0.4% in December. Entering 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI in that month was-0.3%, reaching a historical low. However, in March, the year-on-year growth rate was 0.3%, and the core CPI broke away from the continuous downward trend. This mainly comes from the fact that since February, my country's epidemic prevention and control has basically extinguished local epidemic clusters in various places in January, and the recovery of service consumption is on the right track.Figure 4: Year-on-year growth trend of core CPI and service CPI in that month<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a3a2b093ec625ab2948977a9fbd2cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking forward to the overall CPI trend, the supply and demand of food, especially pork, is still a factor that cannot be ignored.According to the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, according to the average increase rate of 2.1% month-on-month in the number of live pigs in each month of 2020, it is expected that by around June 2021, the number of live pigs will fully recover to the level of 2017. Therefore, the downward momentum of the overall CPI in the next stage is still significant. It should also be noted that the service industry is gradually recovering but the pace is still slow. After the epidemic, residents' consumption demand is still weak, and the upward rate of the core CPI after it breaks away from the bottom is expected to remain low.The inflationary pressures commonly talked about in the market are actually mainly concentrated on PPI。 In March, PPI increased by 4.4% year-on-year and 1.6% month-on-month, the highest month-on-month increase in history. We use the revenue proportion of enterprises above designated size in each industrial industry in 2020 as the weight. According to the upstream, midstream and downstream division method in the \"Shanghai Stock Exchange Industry Chain Index Series Compilation Plan\", we can calculate the respective PPIs of the upstream, midstream and downstream industrial industries in that month. Year-on-year growth rate (Figure 5). It can be found that the overall price increase of industrial products mainly comes from the price increase of upstream industries in the industrial chain.Figure 5: Decomposition of PPI growth rate of upstream, midstream and downstream industrial sectors by revenue weight (%)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aab13d68f58375336de5030f918d5fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, the price increase of the upstream industrial industry cannot be generalized. We use the price on January 2, 2020 as the base period, and use the latest data on April 23, 2021 to observe the price increase of the four major categories of bulk commodities: black, nonferrous metals, crude oil and agricultural products. Changes in the South China Commodity Index after the epidemic (Figure 6). Compared with pre-pandemic, ferrous metals rose the most (152%), followed by non-ferrous metals (39%), followed by agricultural products (19%), while crude oil still suffered a 33% decline.Figure 6: South China Commodity Index Trends of Various Commodities<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a327db62ac8614240225e9e4a91ff5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. China does not need to worry about the risk of imported inflationAs mentioned earlier, there are three main mechanisms of imported inflation (Figure 7), and the current discussion actually basically focuses on the cost-driving approach.Taken together,To produce imported inflation, there are at least three conditions:First, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage,These three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China doesn't have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.Figure 7: Three main mechanisms and necessary conditions of imported inflation<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079a9dc08120e455d5ea8fcbb744ee74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">First, China is the second largest economy in the world, not a small country as a price-taker。 China's demand for commodities will have a significant impact on international commodity prices.The research of Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang (2019) shows that among the 40 major mineral resources in the world in 2018, 30 mineral consumption in China ranked first in the world [data from Global Mineral Resources Strategy Research Work Report, edited by Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang.].According to statistics (Figure 8), there are 12 kinds of minerals accounting for more than 50% of the world's energy and important mineral consumption in China, and 23 kinds account for more than 40%. These mineral resources include coal, cement limestone, iron, manganese, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and phosphorus.Figure 8: China's major mineral consumption accounted for global proportion in 2018<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/095cf77cf2d2bfb4cd658c3b914490d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wang Anjian, Gao Xinrui. Outlook for China's energy and important mineral resources demand [J]. Proceedings of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2020, 35 (03): 338-344.Secondly, after years of reform, the flexibility of RMB exchange rate has been greatly enhanced at present, which can fully reflect all kinds of economic information.In the process of this round of rising commodity prices, the appreciation of exchange rate has actually played a hedging role in rising commodity prices that rely on external imports. (Figure 9).Figure 9: Trends of South China Commodity Composite Index and RMB Exchange Rate Index<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12aa64af51e8b77972eb748a495ffc48\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, during this round of economic recovery, CPI and PPI have obviously diverged. Only PPI is rising rapidly, and the GDP deflator, which can better reflect price changes, has not risen significantly.Even though China's economy has continued to recover for four quarters, the actual inflationary pressure it faces is not great.This divergence is not a new phenomenon. After 2016, there has been a continuous divergence between PPI and CPI. This at least shows that,In the past five years, there has been no effective evidence that PPI can be transmitted to CPI, and the price transmission mechanism from the production side to the consumer side is not smooth.To sum up, China does not have the basis for imported inflation, so there is no need to worry about the so-called imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rise in commodity prices.As shown in Figure 6 above, the current price increase of domestic commodities is the most prominent price increase of ferrous metals, followed by non-ferrous metals. Among the year-on-year growth rates of PPI by industry in March 2021, the ferrous metal mining and dressing industry ranked the highest in the industry with a growth rate of 34.7%, and the ferrous metal processing industry also ranked at the forefront with a growth rate of 21.5%; The high PPI growth rates of non-ferrous metal processing (21.3%) and non-ferrous metal mining (13.3%) also confirm the rise in non-ferrous metal prices. Combined with the data in Figure 8, among ferrous metals, China's demand for chromium accounts for more than 60% of the world, and its demand for manganese and iron is close to 50%; Among non-ferrous metals, my country's demand for tungsten accounts for nearly 80% of the world, and its demand for aluminum and copper also exceeds 50%.Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices.Inflation is a total issue, and the expression of inflation implies the meaning of economic overheating, which will constrain monetary policy. The macro data of the past two months shows that my country's economy is still in the recovery channel, and the core CPI has just broken away from the continuous downward trend. Although many service industries continue to recover, they are still a certain distance from normal. It is too early to discuss inflationary pressure at this time.To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits.After 2016, the proportion of upstream industries in the profits of industrial enterprises increased significantly, and declined slightly in 2019, but it was still higher than the level before 2016.In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industry chain,On the one hand, we can continue to use targeted tax reduction and fee reduction measures,Improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprises, but considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, there is limited room for structural fiscal policies to play a role.On the other hand, it is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends。\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3629811\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d3216ba9e86e8387a5da72412418e73","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3629811","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1119886772","content_text":"摘要：我国不具备输入性通胀的三个条件。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。\n\n近期，部分大宗商品价格走高，带动PPI快速回正，有观点认为这是典型的输入性通胀。但综合来看，要产生输入性通胀，至少有要有三个条件：一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者；二是固定汇率制度的安排；三是国内各类工业品价格和消费品价格的通畅传导。现阶段，这三个条件在中国基本都不成立，中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险。国内经济的恢复节奏和结构特征可以解释大部分的大宗商品价格上涨——在我国对主要金属矿产需求占全球需求量如此巨大的背景下，国内需求变动才是影响价格的主因。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。为改善这一产业链利润分配失调局面，一方面，可以继续使用针对性的减税降费措施，改善下游、中小企业的现金流，但考虑到目前财政收支形势的困境，结构性的财政政策发挥作用的空间也是有限的。另一方面，依然要从总量层面扩大总需求，在经济还未恢复到疫情正常水平时，应坚定不移的使用扩张性宏观管理政策，不应对大宗商品价格走势过度反应。\n——朱鹤、盛中明 中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）青年研究员\n近期，部分大宗商品价格走高，带动PPI快速回正，有观点认为这是典型的输入性通胀。梳理已有学术研究和事实可以发现，输入性通胀有其特定的作用机制，中国的现实并不完全满足其作用条件。\n目前PPI的阶段性上扬固然与大宗商品价格上涨有关，但与所谓的“输入性通胀”相差甚远，不应将其误读为“输入性通胀”，以免造成决策误判。\n1、输入性通胀的定义与机制\n\n\n\n\n\n\n1. 学术论文如何定义输入性通胀\n\n\n\n\n\n\n输入性通货膨胀，即由外部经济因素变化引起的国内物价总水平的上涨。\n国际上对输入性通胀（Imported Inflation）的研究始于20世纪70年代的石油危机期间，Cagan（1980）在对1971-1974 年美国通货膨胀的研究中，将国内物价上涨主要归因于外部冲击，提出这种外部传导的通货膨胀无法有效地通过国内的货币政策进行控制。Kolodko（1987）将输入型通胀定义为一种“由超过供给的有效需求的异常流入或不断增加的进口成本引起的”物价上涨趋势。\n但从最近半个世纪两次国际大宗商品持续大幅涨价的历史来看，输入性通胀对似乎不能很好地解释同时期内各国的通胀差异。\n弗里德曼（1979）曾比较了石油危机期间美国、日本、德国和英国的通胀水平，发现各国的通胀水平并不都随油价的上涨而同步变化，输入性通胀难以解释各国通胀的差异。\n他指出，20世纪70年代初期，日本和英国的通胀率每年在30%以上，而美国的通胀率在10%左右，德国不到5%。在1973年石油危机之后的五年里，德国和日本的通货膨胀减慢了，德国每年的通胀率从大约7%减到不足5%，日本从30%以上减到5%；美国的通货膨胀却在之后一年达到最高峰，约12%，1976 年降到5%，然后在1979年又升到13%以上。\n他还指出，“德国和日本是100%依靠进口石油的，可是它们在降低通胀率方面，却比50%石油依靠进口的美国、或是已成为大产油国的英国做得好。”以上显著的差异并不能用石油危机的冲击来解释。\n伍戈（2011）也梳理了21世纪初到2008年国际油价上涨趋势中不同国家通胀的不同表现，发现各国通胀率基本稳定在4%-5%以内，显著低于20世纪70年代石油危机期间10%-20%以上的涨幅，通胀自身的波动性更加缓和，且其与大宗商品价格的联动性似乎也在减弱。在国际大宗商品价格冲击下，德国、日本这类石油依存度高的国家通胀率保持在较低水平；而美国石油依存度相对较低，但通胀率反而较高。作为产油大国，英国的通胀率却是这四国中最高的。\n这些基本事实表明，用输入型通胀或外部成本冲击不能很好解释各国在通胀方面的差异表现。\n2. 输入性通胀的传导机制\n现有学术研究一般将外部因素对国内物价水平的影响途径分为三类，然后构建计量模型对相应传导机制进行验证。\n这些计量模型大多使用国际商品价格、其他国家的货币供应量等指标反映外部因素，作为解释变量，将国内CPI、PPI的变动作为被解释变量，然后使用不同模型验证外部因素对国内物价水平是否有显著影响，以及解释力度如何。\n我们发现，已有的学术研究的研究结论存在比较明显的差异。\n2.1 成本推动机制下的输入性通胀\n传导机制：进口商品价格上升推高了国内基础产品的成本，在没有超额需求的条件下，成本提高会引起价格水平的普遍上涨，带来成本推动型的通胀。\n当前对输入性通胀的讨论主要都是基于这个逻辑。但是，上述机制要发挥作用，至少要满足三个必要条件：\n一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者，国内的供需状态基本无法对国际商品价格产生影响，且本国的汇率升值不能抵消进口价格的上涨。\n如若不然，“输入性”也就无从谈起。这也是为什么这一机制在“小国开放经济”模型中会有显著作用。\n二是国外进口原材料的成本在国内生产成本中占主要部分，其价格变动会显著影响国内产成品的价格。\n艾进等（2015）根据物价水平受劳动力、原材料、土地三大要素价格影响的模型计算，发现CPI 对三大要素价格的平均反应弹性分别为0.16、0.08 和0.02，由此计算出2009年8月至2010年9月劳动力、原材料、土地价格从成本角度对CPI 的贡献比例分别为74%、17%和9%。可见在成本因素中，劳动力成本占据绝对主导地位。\nLe Blanc等（2014）也曾指出，20世纪70年代石油危机带来的油价上涨对美、日、法等发达国家的通货膨胀造成了很大影响，但2000年之后，油价对这些国家通胀的影响变得十分有限。\nBernank等(2004) 也发现，进入21世纪以后大宗商品价格对CPI影响较小，他们总结的原因在于原材料占总成本比重变小，且部分成本已经被生产商或经销商利润所吸收。\n三是PPI对CPI有通畅的传导效应。王京晶（2011）在对输入性通胀进行研究时发现，国际金融衍生品价格、进口价格主要改变生产厂商的生产要素价格, 最终表现为PPI的变动。但是，由于PPI与CPI之间传导不通畅，输入型通胀因素对CPI波动的影响程度被大大削弱。\n2.2 贸易机制下的输入性通胀\n传导逻辑：当国外出现通货膨胀、价格上涨时，会刺激出口商更多向外国出口商品，同时抑制本国居民对国外进口商品的消费，而转为增加对本国商品的消费，最终带来国内总需求增加，引发国内通胀。上述机制如要成立，也要满足两个必要条件：\n一是固定汇率。在上述价格机制下，国外的通胀因素如果要对贸易结构产生作用，就必须要求本国的汇率固定，否则国内外价格的相对变动会体现为汇率的变化。\n二是本国出口商品的供给价格弹性和进口商品的需求价格弹性都要足够大。如果本国出口商品的供给价格弹性小，即使国外价格变动很大，国内出口也不会受到很大影响。同时，如果国内对进口商品的需求价格弹性也小，进口商品涨价不会显著影响需求量。\n2.3 稳汇率导致的输入性通胀\n传导机制：当国外出现通货膨胀和价格上涨时，会造成外币相对于本币的贬值，本币升值预期会造成大量国际资本的流入。出于维护本国汇率稳定的目的，本国央行会被动增加货币供给，进而刺激国内总需求并导致通胀。\n这种机制成立的必要条件是保持汇率稳定是央行的重要目标。换言之，在三难选择中央行实际上放弃了货币政策的独立性，选择了汇率稳定和资本自由流动。\n2011年关于输入性通胀的讨论\n当前，国际大宗商品市场存在一定的涨价趋势，部分观点将这一趋势与国内PPI的上行相关联，提出对“输入性通胀”的担忧。我们可以简单复盘上一轮关于输入性通胀的集中讨论，也就是2011年。\n如图1所示，当时CPI当月同比增速从2010年初开始持续冲高至2011年7月6.5%，PPI增速也运行在7%左右的高位。当时的经济背景是，全球正处于应对国际金融冲击后的政策大宽松时期，国际大宗商品价格飙升。北海布伦特与WTI原油收盘价均在2011年上半年突破100美元/桶，当年4月，伦敦金属交易所的铜、锡、铅、铝价格同比分别上涨21.4%、72.3%、25.7%和13.9%。芝加哥交易所的玉米、小麦、大豆、豆油价格分别上涨了96.2%、61.2%、44%和48.6%。\n图1：2009-2013年CPI与PPI月同比增速（%）走势\n\n在这样的背景下，市场和学界围绕防范输入性通货膨胀风险展开了一定讨论。\n彭森（2012）全面分析了全球的宽松货币环境、国际资金炒作大宗商品、石油生产国政治不稳定和经济恢复等因素对国内通胀的影响；并从数据表现上描述了国际商品价格通过商品、资本和信息流动渠道对国内价格的传导。\n但是，伍戈（2011）则梳理了输入型通胀的内涵及其传导机理，发现输入性通胀并不能解释历史上各国通胀的差异；并尝试用货币存量与经济总量的偏离程度解释上述通胀差异，有较好的解释效果，由此提出抑制国内通胀的首要手段依然是控制好国内货币总量。中国发展研究基金会也在2011年6月组织研讨会分析当时通胀的成因和趋势。\n简单复盘当时的宏观背景，不难发现国内的刺激政策才是造成通胀的主要原因，所谓国际大宗商品价格上涨，一定程度上是“出口转内销”的结果。\n为应对全球性金融危机, “4万亿”刺激计划逐步推进, 2009年和2010年我国M1 和M2增速均处于20%以上, M2与GDP同比增速差额和M2占GDP比重均处在当时的历史高位。同时，2009年和2010年新增信贷额分别达到9.58万亿元和7.92万亿元。\n根据当时中金公司（2011）的一项测算，2008-2010年，中国贡献了全球新增货币中的60%。[数据来源于《中国发展研究基金会研究参考》2011年第19号，其中记录了当时中金公司代表在2011年6月3日由中国发展研究基金会主办的宏观经济形势分析会上的发言，发言中对这一数据做了表述。]\n大规模资金主要以政策驱动、政府投资的形式进入实体经济, 激发了国内的投资需求和消费需求，稳定了经济增长，但也形成了阶段性的超额需求，抬升了总体价格水平。当相关基建逐渐转换为生产力、促进生产率和总供给的扩大之后，当时的通胀形势也逐渐缓和下来，到了2011年12月，CPI月同比增速开始回落至4.1%，此后又逐步降至2012年7月份的1.8%。\n从结果看，2011年恰是那一轮商品价格的高点，同时也是全球通胀水平的周期性高点。自那以后，全球大宗商品进入了持续5年的下跌周期，对抗通缩压力成为了新的主旋律。\n现阶段中国不具备输入性通胀的条件\n1. 基本事实：PPI明显强于CPI\n从CPI观察价格走势，其主导因素仍集中于食品供给端和疫后需求恢复。猪肉供给持续恢复会带动整体CPI下行，服务业复苏加快，但距离常态还有一定距离，核心CPI已经脱离底部，但持续上行速率不会太高。\n2021年1-3月，CPI累计增速为零，整体CPI的走势依然数主要受高基数和猪肉供给增强的影响。\n1-3月食品类CPI累计同比增速为0.2%，较去年同期20.3%的高增速下降了20.1个百分点。食品类消费品中，猪肉依旧是最大的扰动因素。受此前春节期间冷冻肉投放增加和生猪存栏持续恢复影响，22省市平均猪肉价格已经从2021年1月1日的48.83元/千克降至4月2日的38.9/千克，降幅20.3%。CPI中的猪肉分项在1-3月的累计降幅也达到12.5%，拉动整体CPI在低位运行。\n此外，今年1-3月份，全国未出现影响较大的极端天气，保证了鲜菜等时令性食品供给的充足，鲜菜类CPI1-3月累计同比增速4.8%，较去年同期下降了4.2个百分点。\n图2：CPI与食品分项、猪肉分项月累计同比增速走势\n\n图3：生猪供给对本轮猪价变动起到主要作用\n\n观察剔除了能源和食品影响的核心CPI走势，可见其自2018年以来一路下行的趋势。在2020年，受疫情冲击后的需求收缩影响，这一下行趋势的速率明显加快。2020年，当核心CPI当月同比增速在3月份触及1.2%后，继续一路下降到12月的0.4%。进入2021年，核心CPI当月同比增速为-0.3%，达到历史最低值。但在3月份，当月同比增速0.3%，核心CPI脱离了持续下行的趋势。这主要来源于，2月份以来，我国疫情防控基本扑灭了1月份各地的局部聚集疫情，服务性消费恢复走上了正轨。\n图4：核心CPI与服务CPI当月同比增速走势\n\n展望整体CPI走势，食品尤其是猪肉供需状态仍是不容忽视的因素。根据农业农村部相关负责人表示，按2020年的各月生猪存栏量环比平均递增2.1%的速度，预计到2021年6月份左右，生猪存栏量就会完全恢复到2017年的存栏水平。所以，整体CPI的在下一阶段下行的动力依旧显著。还要注意到服务业逐步恢复但节奏仍偏缓慢，疫后居民消费需求依然偏弱，核心CPI脱离底部后上行的速率预计仍会较低。\n市场普遍谈论的通胀压力实际上主要集中于PPI。3月份PPI同比增4.4%，环比增1.6%，为历史最高环比涨幅。我们用每个工业行业的规模以上企业2020年的营收占比作为权重，按照《上证产业链指数系列编制方案》中的上中下游划分办法，可以计算出上中下游工业行业各自的PPI当月同比增速（图5）。可以发现，整体工业品的价格上涨在数据表现主要来源于产业链上游行业的涨价。\n图5：按营收权重分解上中下游工业行业PPI当月同比增速(%)\n\n但上游工业行业的涨价也并不能一概而论，我们以2020年1月2日的价格为基期，以2021年4月23日的最新数据观察黑色、有色、原油和农产品四大类大宗商品在疫情之后的南华商品指数变动（图6）。与疫情之前相比，黑色金属涨幅最大（152%），其次是有色金属（39%），接着是农产品（19%），而原油则仍有33%的跌幅。\n图6：各类大宗商品的南华商品指数走势\n\n2. 中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险\n如前文所述，输入性通胀有三种主要作用机制（图7），当前讨论实际上基本集中在成本推动途径上。\n综合来看，要产生输入性通胀，至少有要有三个条件：一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者；二是固定汇率制度的安排；三是国内各类工业品价格和消费品价格的通畅传导。\n现阶段，这三个条件在中国基本都不成立，中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险。\n图7：输入性通胀三种主要作用机制和必要条件\n\n首先，中国是全球第二大经济体，并不是作为价格接受者的小国经济。中国对大宗商品的需求会对国际大宗商品价格产生显著影响。\n王安建和王高尚（2019）的研究表明，2018 年全球主要40 种矿产资源中，我国有30种矿产消费量居世界第一位[数据来源于《全球矿产资源战略研究工作报告》，王安建、王高尚主编。]。\n根据统计（图8），我国能源和重要矿产消费量中占全球比例超过50%的矿种有12种，超过40%的有23种。这些矿产资源中不乏煤炭、水泥灰岩、铁、锰、铜、铝、铅、锌和磷等大宗。\n图8：2018 年中国主要矿产消费量占全球比例\n数据来源：王安建,高芯蕊.中国能源与重要矿产资源需求展望[J].中国科学院院刊,2020,35(03):338-344.\n其次，经过多年的改革，目前人民币汇率的弹性大大增强，能够比较充分反映各类经济信息。本轮大宗商品价格上涨的过程中，汇率升值对依赖外部进口的大宗商品价格上涨事实上起到了对冲作用。（图9）。\n图9：南华商品综合指数与人民币汇率指数走势\n\n最后，在本轮经济复苏过程中，CPI和PPI则出现明显背离，只有PPI在快速上升，更能综合反映物价变化的GDP平减指数也没有显著上升。即使中国经济已经持续复苏了4个季度，实际面临的通胀压力也并不大。\n这种背离并不是新现象。2016年之后，PPI与CPI就一直存在持续背离。这至少说明，过去五年里，并没有看到PPI能够向CPI传导的有效证据，从生产端向消费端的价格传导机制并不顺畅。\n综上可知，中国不具备输入性通胀的基础，不必担忧所谓的输入性通胀。国内经济的恢复节奏和结构特征可以解释大部分的大宗商品价格上涨。如前文图6所示，当前国内大宗商品的价格上涨最突出是黑色金属的涨价，有色金属位于其次。而2021年3月分行业的PPI同比增速中，黑色金属的采选业以34.7%的增速位居全行业最高，黑色金属加工业21.5%的增速也位居前列；有色金属加工（21.3%）和有色金属采选（13.3%）的高PPI增速也与有色价格的上涨互相印证。而结合图8数据，在黑色金属中，我国对铬的需求量全球占比超过60%，对锰和铁的需求量则接近50%；有色金属中，我国对钨的需求量全球占比接近80%，对铝、铜的需求量也超过50%。在我国对主要金属矿产需求占全球需求量如此巨大的背景下，国内需求变动才是影响价格的主因。\n通胀是总量问题，通胀的表述隐含着经济过热的意义，这会对货币政策形成掣肘。近两个月的宏观数据表明，我国经济尚处于复苏通道中，核心CPI也刚刚脱离连续下滑的趋势，许多服务性行业虽然在持续恢复，但距离常态还有一定距离，此时讨论通胀压力为时尚早。\n应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。2016年之后，上游行业占工业企业利润的比重显著上升，2019年略有下降，但依然比2016年之前的水平更高。\n为改善这一产业链利润分配失调局面，一方面，可以继续使用针对性的减税降费措施，改善下游、中小企业的现金流，但考虑到目前财政收支形势的困境，结构性的财政政策发挥作用的空间也是有限的。另一方面，依然要从总量层面扩大总需求，在经济还未恢复到疫情正常水平时，应坚定不移的使用扩张性宏观管理政策，不应对大宗商品价格走势过度反应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":107588824,"gmtCreate":1620522229868,"gmtModify":1704344519325,"author":{"id":"3576125208282503","authorId":"3576125208282503","name":"馒头卡喉咙啦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3661a8bd6543d698929e7f6942179db","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576125208282503","authorIdStr":"3576125208282503"},"htmlText":"要","listText":"要","text":"要","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107588824","repostId":1119886772,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119886772","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620436108,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119886772?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-08 09:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Does China need to worry about imported inflation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119886772","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：我国不具备输入性通胀的三个条件。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。\n\n近","content":"Abstract: China does not have three conditions for imported inflation. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. But on the whole, there are at least three conditions to produce imported inflation: first, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage, these three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China does not have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rising commodity prices-Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it.The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industrial chain, on the one hand,We can continue to use targeted tax and fee reduction measures to improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprisesHowever, considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, the space for structural fiscal policy to play a role is also limited. On the other hand,It is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends.--Zhu He and Sheng Zhongming, young researchers at China Financial Forty Forum (CF40)Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. Combing the existing academic research and facts can find that,Imported inflation has its specific mechanism, and China's reality does not fully meet its conditions.The current phased rise in PPI is certainly related to the rise in commodity prices, but it is far from the so-called \"imported inflation\", should not be misunderstood as \"imported inflation\" to avoid misjudgment in decision-making.1. Definition and mechanism of imported inflation1. How academic papers define imported inflationImported inflation refers to the increase of the overall domestic price level caused by the change of external economic factors.International research on Imported Inflation (Imported Inflation) began during the oil crisis in 1970s. In his study of American inflation from 1971 to 1974, Cagan (1980) mainly attributed the domestic price increase to external shocks, and proposed that this externally transmitted inflation cannot be effectively controlled through domestic monetary policy. Kolodko (1987) defines imported inflation as an upward trend in prices \"caused by abnormal inflows of effective demand in excess of supply or increasing import costs\".However, judging from the history of two continuous sharp price increases of international commodities in the last half century, it seems that imported inflation pairs cannot well explain the inflation differences among countries during the same period.Friedman (1979) compared the inflation levels of the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom during the oil crisis, and found that the inflation levels of various countries did not all change synchronously with the rise of oil prices, and imported inflation was difficult to explain the differences in inflation among countries.He noted that in the early 1970s, inflation in Japan and the UK was above 30% a year, while inflation in the US was around 10% and Germany was less than 5%. In the five years after the oil crisis in 1973, inflation in Germany and Japan slowed down. The annual inflation rate in Germany decreased from about 7% to less than 5%, and that in Japan decreased from more than 30% to 5%; Inflation in the United States reached its peak in the following year, about 12%, dropped to 5% in 1976, and then rose to more than 13% in 1979.He also pointed out that \"Germany and Japan are 100% imported oil, but they have done a better job of reducing inflation than the United States, which imports 50% of oil, or Britain, which has become a big oil producer.\" These significant differences cannot be explained by the impact of the oil crisis.Wu Ge (2011) also sorted out the different manifestations of inflation in different countries in the rising trend of international oil prices from the beginning of the 21st century to 2008, and found that the inflation rate in various countries was basically stable within 4%-5%, which was significantly lower than the 10% during the oil crisis in the 1970s. With an increase of more than 20%, the volatility of inflation itself has become more moderate, and its linkage with commodity prices seems to be weakening. Under the impact of international commodity prices, the inflation rate of countries with high oil dependence such as Germany and Japan has remained at a low level; The U.S. oil dependence is relatively low, but the inflation rate is relatively high. As a major oil producer, Britain's inflation rate is the highest among the four countries.These basic facts show that,Imported inflation or external cost shocks cannot well explain the differences in inflation performance among countries.2. Transmission mechanism of imported inflationThe existing academic research generally divides the influence ways of external factors on domestic price level into three categories, and then constructs an econometric model to verify the corresponding transmission mechanism.Most of these econometric models use indicators such as international commodity prices and money supply of other countries to reflect external factors as explanatory variables, and take changes in domestic CPI and PPI as explained variables. Then, different models are used to verify whether external factors have a significant impact on domestic price levels and how strong the explanation is.We found that there are obvious differences in the research conclusions of the existing academic studies.2.1 Imported inflation under the cost push mechanismTransmission mechanism: Rising prices of imported goods push up the cost of domestic basic products. In the absence of excess demand, rising costs will cause a general increase in price levels and bring about cost-driven inflation.The current discussion on imported inflation is mainly based on this logic. But,For the above mechanism to work, at least three necessary conditions must be met:First, China is the recipient of international commodity price changes, and the domestic supply and demand state basically cannot affect international commodity prices, and the appreciation of its exchange rate cannot offset the increase of import prices.Otherwise, \"input\" will be impossible to talk about. This is why this mechanism will play a significant role in the model of \"small country open economy\".Second, the cost of imported raw materials accounts for the main part of domestic production costs, and its price changes will significantly affect the price of domestic finished products.Ai Jin et al. (2015) calculated according to the model that the price level is affected by the prices of labor, raw materials and land, and found that the average response elasticity of CPI to the prices of the three factors was 0.16, 0.08 and 0.02, respectively. From August 2009 to September 2010, the contribution ratios of labor, raw materials and land prices to CPI from the perspective of cost were 74%, 17% and 9% respectively. It can be seen that among the cost factors, labor cost occupies an absolutely dominant position.Le Blanc et al. (2014) also pointed out that the rise in oil prices brought about by the oil crisis in 1970s had a great impact on inflation in developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and France. However, after 2000, the impact of oil prices on inflation in these countries became very limited.Bernank et al. (2004) also found that after entering the 21st century, commodity prices have little impact on CPI. The reason they concluded is that the proportion of raw materials in the total cost has become smaller, and part of the cost has been absorbed by the profits of manufacturers or distributors.Third, PPI has a smooth transmission effect on CPI.When Wang Jingjing (2011) studied imported inflation, he found that the price of international financial derivatives and import price mainly changed the price of production factors of manufacturers, which ultimately showed the change of PPI. However, due to the poor transmission between PPI and CPI, the influence of imported inflation factors on CPI fluctuations has been greatly weakened.2.2 Imported inflation under the trade mechanismTransmission logic: When inflation and price rises occur abroad, it will stimulate exporters to export more goods to foreign countries, and at the same time restrain domestic residents' consumption of foreign imported goods, and instead increase the consumption of domestic goods, which will ultimately bring about domestic total demand. Increased demand triggers domestic inflation.If the above mechanism is to be established, it must also meet two necessary conditions:One is a fixed exchange rate.Under the above-mentioned price mechanism, if foreign inflation factors want to have an effect on the trade structure, they must require the domestic exchange rate to be fixed, otherwise the relative changes of domestic and foreign prices will be reflected in changes in exchange rates.Second, the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities and the demand price elasticity of imported commodities should be large enough。 If the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities is small, even if foreign prices change greatly, domestic exports will not be greatly affected. At the same time, if the price elasticity of domestic demand for imported goods is also small, the price increase of imported goods will not significantly affect the demand.2.3 Imported inflation caused by stable exchange rateTransmission mechanism: When inflation and price increase occur abroad, it will cause the foreign currency to depreciate relative to the local currency, and the appreciation of the local currency is expected to cause a large inflow of international capital. For the purpose of maintaining the stability of the country's exchange rate, the country's central bank will passively increase the money supply, thereby stimulating domestic aggregate demand and leading to inflation.The necessary condition for the establishment of this mechanism is that maintaining exchange rate stability is an important goal of the central bank. In other words, in the trilemma, the central bank actually gave up the independence of monetary policy and chose exchange rate stability and free capital flow.Discussion on imported inflation in 2011At present, there is a certain price increase trend in the international commodity market. Some views associate this trend with the upward trend of domestic PPI and raise concerns about \"imported inflation\". We can simply focus on the last round of concentrated discussion on imported inflation in review, that is, in 2011.As shown in Figure 1, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI continued to rise from the beginning of 2010 to 6.5% in July 2011, and the growth rate of PPI also ran at a high level of around 7%. The economic background at that time was that the world was in a period of great policy easing after responding to the international financial shock, and international commodity prices soared. The closing prices of North Sea Brent and WTI crude oil both exceeded US $100/barrel in the first half of 2011. In April of that year, the prices of copper, tin, lead and aluminum on the London Metal Exchange rose by 21.4%, 72.3%, 25.7% and 13.9% respectively year-on-year.%. The prices of corn, wheat, soybeans and soybean oil on the Chicago Exchange rose by 96.2%, 61.2%, 44% and 48.6% respectively.Figure 1: 2009-2013 CPI and PPI monthly year-on-year growth rate (%) trend<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0189eeea4f2edbd48077b454feb916b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Under this background, the market and academic circles have held some discussions on preventing the risk of imported inflation.Peng Sen (2012) comprehensively analyzed the impact of factors such as the global loose monetary environment, international capital speculation on commodities, political instability and economic recovery in oil producing countries on domestic inflation; From the data performance, it describes the transmission of international commodity prices to domestic prices through commodity, capital and information flow channels.However, Wu Ge (2011) sorted out the connotation and transmission mechanism of imported inflation, and found that imported inflation could not explain the differences in inflation among countries in history; And try to explain the above inflation difference with the deviation between the money stock and the economic aggregate, which has a good explanatory effect. Therefore, it is proposed that the primary means to curb domestic inflation is still to control the domestic money aggregate. China Development Research Foundation also organized a seminar in June 2011 to analyze the causes and trends of inflation at that time.Simply review's macro background at that time, it is not difficult to findDomestic stimulus policies are the main cause of inflation. The so-called rise in international commodity prices is, to a certain extent, the result of \"export to domestic sales\".In response to the global financial crisis, the \"4 trillion\" stimulus plan was gradually promoted. In 2009 and 2010, my country's M1 and M2 growth rates were both above 20%. The difference between the year-on-year growth rates of M2 and GDP and the proportion of M2 to GDP were both at that time. historical highs. At the same time, the amount of new credit in 2009 and 2010 reached 9.58 trillion yuan and 7.92 trillion yuan respectively.According to a calculation by CICC (2011) at that time, from 2008 to 2010, China contributed 60% of the world's new currency. [The data comes from \"China Development Research Foundation Research Reference\" No. 19, 2011, which recorded the speech made by the representative of CICC at the macroeconomic situation analysis meeting hosted by China Development Research Foundation on June 3, 2011, in which this data was stated.]Large-scale funds mainly enter the real economy in the form of policy-driven and government investment, which stimulates domestic investment demand and consumer demand and stabilizes economic growth, but also forms periodic excess demand and raises the overall price level. When related infrastructure was gradually converted into productivity, promoting the expansion of productivity and total supply, the inflation situation at that time gradually eased. By December 2011, the monthly CPI growth rate began to fall back to 4.1%, and then gradually dropped to 1.8% in July 2012.As a result, 2011 was the high point of that round of commodity prices, and it was also the cyclical high point of global inflation. Since then, global commodities have entered a five-year downward cycle, and fighting deflationary pressures has become the new main theme.China does not have the conditions for imported inflation at this stage1. Basic fact: PPI is significantly stronger than CPIObserving the price trend from CPI, the dominant factors are still concentrated on the food supply side and the recovery of post-epidemic demand.The continued recovery of pork supply will drive the overall CPI down, and the recovery of the service industry will accelerate, but there is still a certain distance from normal. The core CPI has left the bottom, but the continued upward rate will not be too high.From January to March 2021, the cumulative growth rate of CPI was zero, and the overall CPI trend was still mainly affected by the high base and increased pork supply.The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of food CPI from January to March was 0.2%, which was 20.1 percentage points lower than the high growth rate of 20.3% in the same period last year. Among food consumer goods, pork is still the biggest disturbance factor. Affected by the increase in frozen meat delivery during the Spring Festival and the continuous recovery of live pigs, the average pork price in 22 provinces and cities has dropped from 48.83 yuan/kg on January 1, 2021 to 38.9/kg on April 2, a decrease of 20.3%. The cumulative decline of the pork sub-item in the CPI from January to March also reached 12.5%, driving the overall CPI to run at a low level.In addition, from January to March this year, there was no extreme weather with great impact in the country, which ensured the sufficient supply of seasonal foods such as fresh vegetables. The cumulative growth rate of fresh vegetables CPI from January to March was 4.8% year-on-year, down 4.2 percentage points from the same period last year. percentage points.Figure 2: Monthly cumulative year-on-year growth trend of CPI, food sub-items, and pork sub-items<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c113e7896f0edf18eb10f5b04adb8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Figure 3: Pig supply plays a major role in this round of pig price changes<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c04dfc28112ae1a659c197c6371208\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Observing the core CPI trend excluding the impact of energy and food, it can be seen that it has been downward since 2018. In 2020, affected by the contraction of demand after the impact of the epidemic, the rate of this downward trend has accelerated significantly.In 2020, when the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI hit 1.2% in March, it continued to fall all the way to 0.4% in December. Entering 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI in that month was-0.3%, reaching a historical low. However, in March, the year-on-year growth rate was 0.3%, and the core CPI broke away from the continuous downward trend. This mainly comes from the fact that since February, my country's epidemic prevention and control has basically extinguished local epidemic clusters in various places in January, and the recovery of service consumption is on the right track.Figure 4: Year-on-year growth trend of core CPI and service CPI in that month<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a3a2b093ec625ab2948977a9fbd2cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking forward to the overall CPI trend, the supply and demand of food, especially pork, is still a factor that cannot be ignored.According to the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, according to the average increase rate of 2.1% month-on-month in the number of live pigs in each month of 2020, it is expected that by around June 2021, the number of live pigs will fully recover to the level of 2017. Therefore, the downward momentum of the overall CPI in the next stage is still significant. It should also be noted that the service industry is gradually recovering but the pace is still slow. After the epidemic, residents' consumption demand is still weak, and the upward rate of the core CPI after it breaks away from the bottom is expected to remain low.The inflationary pressures commonly talked about in the market are actually mainly concentrated on PPI。 In March, PPI increased by 4.4% year-on-year and 1.6% month-on-month, the highest month-on-month increase in history. We use the revenue proportion of enterprises above designated size in each industrial industry in 2020 as the weight. According to the upstream, midstream and downstream division method in the \"Shanghai Stock Exchange Industry Chain Index Series Compilation Plan\", we can calculate the respective PPIs of the upstream, midstream and downstream industrial industries in that month. Year-on-year growth rate (Figure 5). It can be found that the overall price increase of industrial products mainly comes from the price increase of upstream industries in the industrial chain.Figure 5: Decomposition of PPI growth rate of upstream, midstream and downstream industrial sectors by revenue weight (%)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aab13d68f58375336de5030f918d5fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, the price increase of the upstream industrial industry cannot be generalized. We use the price on January 2, 2020 as the base period, and use the latest data on April 23, 2021 to observe the price increase of the four major categories of bulk commodities: black, nonferrous metals, crude oil and agricultural products. Changes in the South China Commodity Index after the epidemic (Figure 6). Compared with pre-pandemic, ferrous metals rose the most (152%), followed by non-ferrous metals (39%), followed by agricultural products (19%), while crude oil still suffered a 33% decline.Figure 6: South China Commodity Index Trends of Various Commodities<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a327db62ac8614240225e9e4a91ff5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. China does not need to worry about the risk of imported inflationAs mentioned earlier, there are three main mechanisms of imported inflation (Figure 7), and the current discussion actually basically focuses on the cost-driving approach.Taken together,To produce imported inflation, there are at least three conditions:First, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage,These three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China doesn't have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.Figure 7: Three main mechanisms and necessary conditions of imported inflation<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079a9dc08120e455d5ea8fcbb744ee74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">First, China is the second largest economy in the world, not a small country as a price-taker。 China's demand for commodities will have a significant impact on international commodity prices.The research of Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang (2019) shows that among the 40 major mineral resources in the world in 2018, 30 mineral consumption in China ranked first in the world [data from Global Mineral Resources Strategy Research Work Report, edited by Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang.].According to statistics (Figure 8), there are 12 kinds of minerals accounting for more than 50% of the world's energy and important mineral consumption in China, and 23 kinds account for more than 40%. These mineral resources include coal, cement limestone, iron, manganese, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and phosphorus.Figure 8: China's major mineral consumption accounted for global proportion in 2018<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/095cf77cf2d2bfb4cd658c3b914490d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wang Anjian, Gao Xinrui. Outlook for China's energy and important mineral resources demand [J]. Proceedings of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2020, 35 (03): 338-344.Secondly, after years of reform, the flexibility of RMB exchange rate has been greatly enhanced at present, which can fully reflect all kinds of economic information.In the process of this round of rising commodity prices, the appreciation of exchange rate has actually played a hedging role in rising commodity prices that rely on external imports. (Figure 9).Figure 9: Trends of South China Commodity Composite Index and RMB Exchange Rate Index<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12aa64af51e8b77972eb748a495ffc48\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, during this round of economic recovery, CPI and PPI have obviously diverged. Only PPI is rising rapidly, and the GDP deflator, which can better reflect price changes, has not risen significantly.Even though China's economy has continued to recover for four quarters, the actual inflationary pressure it faces is not great.This divergence is not a new phenomenon. After 2016, there has been a continuous divergence between PPI and CPI. This at least shows that,In the past five years, there has been no effective evidence that PPI can be transmitted to CPI, and the price transmission mechanism from the production side to the consumer side is not smooth.To sum up, China does not have the basis for imported inflation, so there is no need to worry about the so-called imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rise in commodity prices.As shown in Figure 6 above, the current price increase of domestic commodities is the most prominent price increase of ferrous metals, followed by non-ferrous metals. Among the year-on-year growth rates of PPI by industry in March 2021, the ferrous metal mining and dressing industry ranked the highest in the industry with a growth rate of 34.7%, and the ferrous metal processing industry also ranked at the forefront with a growth rate of 21.5%; The high PPI growth rates of non-ferrous metal processing (21.3%) and non-ferrous metal mining (13.3%) also confirm the rise in non-ferrous metal prices. Combined with the data in Figure 8, among ferrous metals, China's demand for chromium accounts for more than 60% of the world, and its demand for manganese and iron is close to 50%; Among non-ferrous metals, my country's demand for tungsten accounts for nearly 80% of the world, and its demand for aluminum and copper also exceeds 50%.Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices.Inflation is a total issue, and the expression of inflation implies the meaning of economic overheating, which will constrain monetary policy. The macro data of the past two months shows that my country's economy is still in the recovery channel, and the core CPI has just broken away from the continuous downward trend. Although many service industries continue to recover, they are still a certain distance from normal. It is too early to discuss inflationary pressure at this time.To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits.After 2016, the proportion of upstream industries in the profits of industrial enterprises increased significantly, and declined slightly in 2019, but it was still higher than the level before 2016.In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industry chain,On the one hand, we can continue to use targeted tax reduction and fee reduction measures,Improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprises, but considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, there is limited room for structural fiscal policies to play a role.On the other hand, it is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends。","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does China need to worry about imported inflation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoes China need to worry about imported inflation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-05-08 09:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAbstract: China does not have three conditions for imported inflation. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. But on the whole, there are at least three conditions to produce imported inflation: first, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage, these three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China does not have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rising commodity prices-Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it.The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industrial chain, on the one hand,We can continue to use targeted tax and fee reduction measures to improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprisesHowever, considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, the space for structural fiscal policy to play a role is also limited. On the other hand,It is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends.--Zhu He and Sheng Zhongming, young researchers at China Financial Forty Forum (CF40)Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. Combing the existing academic research and facts can find that,Imported inflation has its specific mechanism, and China's reality does not fully meet its conditions.The current phased rise in PPI is certainly related to the rise in commodity prices, but it is far from the so-called \"imported inflation\", should not be misunderstood as \"imported inflation\" to avoid misjudgment in decision-making.1. Definition and mechanism of imported inflation1. How academic papers define imported inflationImported inflation refers to the increase of the overall domestic price level caused by the change of external economic factors.International research on Imported Inflation (Imported Inflation) began during the oil crisis in 1970s. In his study of American inflation from 1971 to 1974, Cagan (1980) mainly attributed the domestic price increase to external shocks, and proposed that this externally transmitted inflation cannot be effectively controlled through domestic monetary policy. Kolodko (1987) defines imported inflation as an upward trend in prices \"caused by abnormal inflows of effective demand in excess of supply or increasing import costs\".However, judging from the history of two continuous sharp price increases of international commodities in the last half century, it seems that imported inflation pairs cannot well explain the inflation differences among countries during the same period.Friedman (1979) compared the inflation levels of the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom during the oil crisis, and found that the inflation levels of various countries did not all change synchronously with the rise of oil prices, and imported inflation was difficult to explain the differences in inflation among countries.He noted that in the early 1970s, inflation in Japan and the UK was above 30% a year, while inflation in the US was around 10% and Germany was less than 5%. In the five years after the oil crisis in 1973, inflation in Germany and Japan slowed down. The annual inflation rate in Germany decreased from about 7% to less than 5%, and that in Japan decreased from more than 30% to 5%; Inflation in the United States reached its peak in the following year, about 12%, dropped to 5% in 1976, and then rose to more than 13% in 1979.He also pointed out that \"Germany and Japan are 100% imported oil, but they have done a better job of reducing inflation than the United States, which imports 50% of oil, or Britain, which has become a big oil producer.\" These significant differences cannot be explained by the impact of the oil crisis.Wu Ge (2011) also sorted out the different manifestations of inflation in different countries in the rising trend of international oil prices from the beginning of the 21st century to 2008, and found that the inflation rate in various countries was basically stable within 4%-5%, which was significantly lower than the 10% during the oil crisis in the 1970s. With an increase of more than 20%, the volatility of inflation itself has become more moderate, and its linkage with commodity prices seems to be weakening. Under the impact of international commodity prices, the inflation rate of countries with high oil dependence such as Germany and Japan has remained at a low level; The U.S. oil dependence is relatively low, but the inflation rate is relatively high. As a major oil producer, Britain's inflation rate is the highest among the four countries.These basic facts show that,Imported inflation or external cost shocks cannot well explain the differences in inflation performance among countries.2. Transmission mechanism of imported inflationThe existing academic research generally divides the influence ways of external factors on domestic price level into three categories, and then constructs an econometric model to verify the corresponding transmission mechanism.Most of these econometric models use indicators such as international commodity prices and money supply of other countries to reflect external factors as explanatory variables, and take changes in domestic CPI and PPI as explained variables. Then, different models are used to verify whether external factors have a significant impact on domestic price levels and how strong the explanation is.We found that there are obvious differences in the research conclusions of the existing academic studies.2.1 Imported inflation under the cost push mechanismTransmission mechanism: Rising prices of imported goods push up the cost of domestic basic products. In the absence of excess demand, rising costs will cause a general increase in price levels and bring about cost-driven inflation.The current discussion on imported inflation is mainly based on this logic. But,For the above mechanism to work, at least three necessary conditions must be met:First, China is the recipient of international commodity price changes, and the domestic supply and demand state basically cannot affect international commodity prices, and the appreciation of its exchange rate cannot offset the increase of import prices.Otherwise, \"input\" will be impossible to talk about. This is why this mechanism will play a significant role in the model of \"small country open economy\".Second, the cost of imported raw materials accounts for the main part of domestic production costs, and its price changes will significantly affect the price of domestic finished products.Ai Jin et al. (2015) calculated according to the model that the price level is affected by the prices of labor, raw materials and land, and found that the average response elasticity of CPI to the prices of the three factors was 0.16, 0.08 and 0.02, respectively. From August 2009 to September 2010, the contribution ratios of labor, raw materials and land prices to CPI from the perspective of cost were 74%, 17% and 9% respectively. It can be seen that among the cost factors, labor cost occupies an absolutely dominant position.Le Blanc et al. (2014) also pointed out that the rise in oil prices brought about by the oil crisis in 1970s had a great impact on inflation in developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and France. However, after 2000, the impact of oil prices on inflation in these countries became very limited.Bernank et al. (2004) also found that after entering the 21st century, commodity prices have little impact on CPI. The reason they concluded is that the proportion of raw materials in the total cost has become smaller, and part of the cost has been absorbed by the profits of manufacturers or distributors.Third, PPI has a smooth transmission effect on CPI.When Wang Jingjing (2011) studied imported inflation, he found that the price of international financial derivatives and import price mainly changed the price of production factors of manufacturers, which ultimately showed the change of PPI. However, due to the poor transmission between PPI and CPI, the influence of imported inflation factors on CPI fluctuations has been greatly weakened.2.2 Imported inflation under the trade mechanismTransmission logic: When inflation and price rises occur abroad, it will stimulate exporters to export more goods to foreign countries, and at the same time restrain domestic residents' consumption of foreign imported goods, and instead increase the consumption of domestic goods, which will ultimately bring about domestic total demand. Increased demand triggers domestic inflation.If the above mechanism is to be established, it must also meet two necessary conditions:One is a fixed exchange rate.Under the above-mentioned price mechanism, if foreign inflation factors want to have an effect on the trade structure, they must require the domestic exchange rate to be fixed, otherwise the relative changes of domestic and foreign prices will be reflected in changes in exchange rates.Second, the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities and the demand price elasticity of imported commodities should be large enough。 If the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities is small, even if foreign prices change greatly, domestic exports will not be greatly affected. At the same time, if the price elasticity of domestic demand for imported goods is also small, the price increase of imported goods will not significantly affect the demand.2.3 Imported inflation caused by stable exchange rateTransmission mechanism: When inflation and price increase occur abroad, it will cause the foreign currency to depreciate relative to the local currency, and the appreciation of the local currency is expected to cause a large inflow of international capital. For the purpose of maintaining the stability of the country's exchange rate, the country's central bank will passively increase the money supply, thereby stimulating domestic aggregate demand and leading to inflation.The necessary condition for the establishment of this mechanism is that maintaining exchange rate stability is an important goal of the central bank. In other words, in the trilemma, the central bank actually gave up the independence of monetary policy and chose exchange rate stability and free capital flow.Discussion on imported inflation in 2011At present, there is a certain price increase trend in the international commodity market. Some views associate this trend with the upward trend of domestic PPI and raise concerns about \"imported inflation\". We can simply focus on the last round of concentrated discussion on imported inflation in review, that is, in 2011.As shown in Figure 1, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI continued to rise from the beginning of 2010 to 6.5% in July 2011, and the growth rate of PPI also ran at a high level of around 7%. The economic background at that time was that the world was in a period of great policy easing after responding to the international financial shock, and international commodity prices soared. The closing prices of North Sea Brent and WTI crude oil both exceeded US $100/barrel in the first half of 2011. In April of that year, the prices of copper, tin, lead and aluminum on the London Metal Exchange rose by 21.4%, 72.3%, 25.7% and 13.9% respectively year-on-year.%. The prices of corn, wheat, soybeans and soybean oil on the Chicago Exchange rose by 96.2%, 61.2%, 44% and 48.6% respectively.Figure 1: 2009-2013 CPI and PPI monthly year-on-year growth rate (%) trend<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0189eeea4f2edbd48077b454feb916b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Under this background, the market and academic circles have held some discussions on preventing the risk of imported inflation.Peng Sen (2012) comprehensively analyzed the impact of factors such as the global loose monetary environment, international capital speculation on commodities, political instability and economic recovery in oil producing countries on domestic inflation; From the data performance, it describes the transmission of international commodity prices to domestic prices through commodity, capital and information flow channels.However, Wu Ge (2011) sorted out the connotation and transmission mechanism of imported inflation, and found that imported inflation could not explain the differences in inflation among countries in history; And try to explain the above inflation difference with the deviation between the money stock and the economic aggregate, which has a good explanatory effect. Therefore, it is proposed that the primary means to curb domestic inflation is still to control the domestic money aggregate. China Development Research Foundation also organized a seminar in June 2011 to analyze the causes and trends of inflation at that time.Simply review's macro background at that time, it is not difficult to findDomestic stimulus policies are the main cause of inflation. The so-called rise in international commodity prices is, to a certain extent, the result of \"export to domestic sales\".In response to the global financial crisis, the \"4 trillion\" stimulus plan was gradually promoted. In 2009 and 2010, my country's M1 and M2 growth rates were both above 20%. The difference between the year-on-year growth rates of M2 and GDP and the proportion of M2 to GDP were both at that time. historical highs. At the same time, the amount of new credit in 2009 and 2010 reached 9.58 trillion yuan and 7.92 trillion yuan respectively.According to a calculation by CICC (2011) at that time, from 2008 to 2010, China contributed 60% of the world's new currency. [The data comes from \"China Development Research Foundation Research Reference\" No. 19, 2011, which recorded the speech made by the representative of CICC at the macroeconomic situation analysis meeting hosted by China Development Research Foundation on June 3, 2011, in which this data was stated.]Large-scale funds mainly enter the real economy in the form of policy-driven and government investment, which stimulates domestic investment demand and consumer demand and stabilizes economic growth, but also forms periodic excess demand and raises the overall price level. When related infrastructure was gradually converted into productivity, promoting the expansion of productivity and total supply, the inflation situation at that time gradually eased. By December 2011, the monthly CPI growth rate began to fall back to 4.1%, and then gradually dropped to 1.8% in July 2012.As a result, 2011 was the high point of that round of commodity prices, and it was also the cyclical high point of global inflation. Since then, global commodities have entered a five-year downward cycle, and fighting deflationary pressures has become the new main theme.China does not have the conditions for imported inflation at this stage1. Basic fact: PPI is significantly stronger than CPIObserving the price trend from CPI, the dominant factors are still concentrated on the food supply side and the recovery of post-epidemic demand.The continued recovery of pork supply will drive the overall CPI down, and the recovery of the service industry will accelerate, but there is still a certain distance from normal. The core CPI has left the bottom, but the continued upward rate will not be too high.From January to March 2021, the cumulative growth rate of CPI was zero, and the overall CPI trend was still mainly affected by the high base and increased pork supply.The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of food CPI from January to March was 0.2%, which was 20.1 percentage points lower than the high growth rate of 20.3% in the same period last year. Among food consumer goods, pork is still the biggest disturbance factor. Affected by the increase in frozen meat delivery during the Spring Festival and the continuous recovery of live pigs, the average pork price in 22 provinces and cities has dropped from 48.83 yuan/kg on January 1, 2021 to 38.9/kg on April 2, a decrease of 20.3%. The cumulative decline of the pork sub-item in the CPI from January to March also reached 12.5%, driving the overall CPI to run at a low level.In addition, from January to March this year, there was no extreme weather with great impact in the country, which ensured the sufficient supply of seasonal foods such as fresh vegetables. The cumulative growth rate of fresh vegetables CPI from January to March was 4.8% year-on-year, down 4.2 percentage points from the same period last year. percentage points.Figure 2: Monthly cumulative year-on-year growth trend of CPI, food sub-items, and pork sub-items<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c113e7896f0edf18eb10f5b04adb8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Figure 3: Pig supply plays a major role in this round of pig price changes<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c04dfc28112ae1a659c197c6371208\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Observing the core CPI trend excluding the impact of energy and food, it can be seen that it has been downward since 2018. In 2020, affected by the contraction of demand after the impact of the epidemic, the rate of this downward trend has accelerated significantly.In 2020, when the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI hit 1.2% in March, it continued to fall all the way to 0.4% in December. Entering 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI in that month was-0.3%, reaching a historical low. However, in March, the year-on-year growth rate was 0.3%, and the core CPI broke away from the continuous downward trend. This mainly comes from the fact that since February, my country's epidemic prevention and control has basically extinguished local epidemic clusters in various places in January, and the recovery of service consumption is on the right track.Figure 4: Year-on-year growth trend of core CPI and service CPI in that month<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a3a2b093ec625ab2948977a9fbd2cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking forward to the overall CPI trend, the supply and demand of food, especially pork, is still a factor that cannot be ignored.According to the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, according to the average increase rate of 2.1% month-on-month in the number of live pigs in each month of 2020, it is expected that by around June 2021, the number of live pigs will fully recover to the level of 2017. Therefore, the downward momentum of the overall CPI in the next stage is still significant. It should also be noted that the service industry is gradually recovering but the pace is still slow. After the epidemic, residents' consumption demand is still weak, and the upward rate of the core CPI after it breaks away from the bottom is expected to remain low.The inflationary pressures commonly talked about in the market are actually mainly concentrated on PPI。 In March, PPI increased by 4.4% year-on-year and 1.6% month-on-month, the highest month-on-month increase in history. We use the revenue proportion of enterprises above designated size in each industrial industry in 2020 as the weight. According to the upstream, midstream and downstream division method in the \"Shanghai Stock Exchange Industry Chain Index Series Compilation Plan\", we can calculate the respective PPIs of the upstream, midstream and downstream industrial industries in that month. Year-on-year growth rate (Figure 5). It can be found that the overall price increase of industrial products mainly comes from the price increase of upstream industries in the industrial chain.Figure 5: Decomposition of PPI growth rate of upstream, midstream and downstream industrial sectors by revenue weight (%)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aab13d68f58375336de5030f918d5fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, the price increase of the upstream industrial industry cannot be generalized. We use the price on January 2, 2020 as the base period, and use the latest data on April 23, 2021 to observe the price increase of the four major categories of bulk commodities: black, nonferrous metals, crude oil and agricultural products. Changes in the South China Commodity Index after the epidemic (Figure 6). Compared with pre-pandemic, ferrous metals rose the most (152%), followed by non-ferrous metals (39%), followed by agricultural products (19%), while crude oil still suffered a 33% decline.Figure 6: South China Commodity Index Trends of Various Commodities<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a327db62ac8614240225e9e4a91ff5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. China does not need to worry about the risk of imported inflationAs mentioned earlier, there are three main mechanisms of imported inflation (Figure 7), and the current discussion actually basically focuses on the cost-driving approach.Taken together,To produce imported inflation, there are at least three conditions:First, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage,These three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China doesn't have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.Figure 7: Three main mechanisms and necessary conditions of imported inflation<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079a9dc08120e455d5ea8fcbb744ee74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">First, China is the second largest economy in the world, not a small country as a price-taker。 China's demand for commodities will have a significant impact on international commodity prices.The research of Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang (2019) shows that among the 40 major mineral resources in the world in 2018, 30 mineral consumption in China ranked first in the world [data from Global Mineral Resources Strategy Research Work Report, edited by Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang.].According to statistics (Figure 8), there are 12 kinds of minerals accounting for more than 50% of the world's energy and important mineral consumption in China, and 23 kinds account for more than 40%. These mineral resources include coal, cement limestone, iron, manganese, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and phosphorus.Figure 8: China's major mineral consumption accounted for global proportion in 2018<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/095cf77cf2d2bfb4cd658c3b914490d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wang Anjian, Gao Xinrui. Outlook for China's energy and important mineral resources demand [J]. Proceedings of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2020, 35 (03): 338-344.Secondly, after years of reform, the flexibility of RMB exchange rate has been greatly enhanced at present, which can fully reflect all kinds of economic information.In the process of this round of rising commodity prices, the appreciation of exchange rate has actually played a hedging role in rising commodity prices that rely on external imports. (Figure 9).Figure 9: Trends of South China Commodity Composite Index and RMB Exchange Rate Index<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12aa64af51e8b77972eb748a495ffc48\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, during this round of economic recovery, CPI and PPI have obviously diverged. Only PPI is rising rapidly, and the GDP deflator, which can better reflect price changes, has not risen significantly.Even though China's economy has continued to recover for four quarters, the actual inflationary pressure it faces is not great.This divergence is not a new phenomenon. After 2016, there has been a continuous divergence between PPI and CPI. This at least shows that,In the past five years, there has been no effective evidence that PPI can be transmitted to CPI, and the price transmission mechanism from the production side to the consumer side is not smooth.To sum up, China does not have the basis for imported inflation, so there is no need to worry about the so-called imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rise in commodity prices.As shown in Figure 6 above, the current price increase of domestic commodities is the most prominent price increase of ferrous metals, followed by non-ferrous metals. Among the year-on-year growth rates of PPI by industry in March 2021, the ferrous metal mining and dressing industry ranked the highest in the industry with a growth rate of 34.7%, and the ferrous metal processing industry also ranked at the forefront with a growth rate of 21.5%; The high PPI growth rates of non-ferrous metal processing (21.3%) and non-ferrous metal mining (13.3%) also confirm the rise in non-ferrous metal prices. Combined with the data in Figure 8, among ferrous metals, China's demand for chromium accounts for more than 60% of the world, and its demand for manganese and iron is close to 50%; Among non-ferrous metals, my country's demand for tungsten accounts for nearly 80% of the world, and its demand for aluminum and copper also exceeds 50%.Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices.Inflation is a total issue, and the expression of inflation implies the meaning of economic overheating, which will constrain monetary policy. The macro data of the past two months shows that my country's economy is still in the recovery channel, and the core CPI has just broken away from the continuous downward trend. Although many service industries continue to recover, they are still a certain distance from normal. It is too early to discuss inflationary pressure at this time.To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits.After 2016, the proportion of upstream industries in the profits of industrial enterprises increased significantly, and declined slightly in 2019, but it was still higher than the level before 2016.In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industry chain,On the one hand, we can continue to use targeted tax reduction and fee reduction measures,Improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprises, but considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, there is limited room for structural fiscal policies to play a role.On the other hand, it is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends。\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3629811\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d3216ba9e86e8387a5da72412418e73","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3629811","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1119886772","content_text":"摘要：我国不具备输入性通胀的三个条件。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。\n\n近期，部分大宗商品价格走高，带动PPI快速回正，有观点认为这是典型的输入性通胀。但综合来看，要产生输入性通胀，至少有要有三个条件：一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者；二是固定汇率制度的安排；三是国内各类工业品价格和消费品价格的通畅传导。现阶段，这三个条件在中国基本都不成立，中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险。国内经济的恢复节奏和结构特征可以解释大部分的大宗商品价格上涨——在我国对主要金属矿产需求占全球需求量如此巨大的背景下，国内需求变动才是影响价格的主因。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。为改善这一产业链利润分配失调局面，一方面，可以继续使用针对性的减税降费措施，改善下游、中小企业的现金流，但考虑到目前财政收支形势的困境，结构性的财政政策发挥作用的空间也是有限的。另一方面，依然要从总量层面扩大总需求，在经济还未恢复到疫情正常水平时，应坚定不移的使用扩张性宏观管理政策，不应对大宗商品价格走势过度反应。\n——朱鹤、盛中明 中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）青年研究员\n近期，部分大宗商品价格走高，带动PPI快速回正，有观点认为这是典型的输入性通胀。梳理已有学术研究和事实可以发现，输入性通胀有其特定的作用机制，中国的现实并不完全满足其作用条件。\n目前PPI的阶段性上扬固然与大宗商品价格上涨有关，但与所谓的“输入性通胀”相差甚远，不应将其误读为“输入性通胀”，以免造成决策误判。\n1、输入性通胀的定义与机制\n\n\n\n\n\n\n1. 学术论文如何定义输入性通胀\n\n\n\n\n\n\n输入性通货膨胀，即由外部经济因素变化引起的国内物价总水平的上涨。\n国际上对输入性通胀（Imported Inflation）的研究始于20世纪70年代的石油危机期间，Cagan（1980）在对1971-1974 年美国通货膨胀的研究中，将国内物价上涨主要归因于外部冲击，提出这种外部传导的通货膨胀无法有效地通过国内的货币政策进行控制。Kolodko（1987）将输入型通胀定义为一种“由超过供给的有效需求的异常流入或不断增加的进口成本引起的”物价上涨趋势。\n但从最近半个世纪两次国际大宗商品持续大幅涨价的历史来看，输入性通胀对似乎不能很好地解释同时期内各国的通胀差异。\n弗里德曼（1979）曾比较了石油危机期间美国、日本、德国和英国的通胀水平，发现各国的通胀水平并不都随油价的上涨而同步变化，输入性通胀难以解释各国通胀的差异。\n他指出，20世纪70年代初期，日本和英国的通胀率每年在30%以上，而美国的通胀率在10%左右，德国不到5%。在1973年石油危机之后的五年里，德国和日本的通货膨胀减慢了，德国每年的通胀率从大约7%减到不足5%，日本从30%以上减到5%；美国的通货膨胀却在之后一年达到最高峰，约12%，1976 年降到5%，然后在1979年又升到13%以上。\n他还指出，“德国和日本是100%依靠进口石油的，可是它们在降低通胀率方面，却比50%石油依靠进口的美国、或是已成为大产油国的英国做得好。”以上显著的差异并不能用石油危机的冲击来解释。\n伍戈（2011）也梳理了21世纪初到2008年国际油价上涨趋势中不同国家通胀的不同表现，发现各国通胀率基本稳定在4%-5%以内，显著低于20世纪70年代石油危机期间10%-20%以上的涨幅，通胀自身的波动性更加缓和，且其与大宗商品价格的联动性似乎也在减弱。在国际大宗商品价格冲击下，德国、日本这类石油依存度高的国家通胀率保持在较低水平；而美国石油依存度相对较低，但通胀率反而较高。作为产油大国，英国的通胀率却是这四国中最高的。\n这些基本事实表明，用输入型通胀或外部成本冲击不能很好解释各国在通胀方面的差异表现。\n2. 输入性通胀的传导机制\n现有学术研究一般将外部因素对国内物价水平的影响途径分为三类，然后构建计量模型对相应传导机制进行验证。\n这些计量模型大多使用国际商品价格、其他国家的货币供应量等指标反映外部因素，作为解释变量，将国内CPI、PPI的变动作为被解释变量，然后使用不同模型验证外部因素对国内物价水平是否有显著影响，以及解释力度如何。\n我们发现，已有的学术研究的研究结论存在比较明显的差异。\n2.1 成本推动机制下的输入性通胀\n传导机制：进口商品价格上升推高了国内基础产品的成本，在没有超额需求的条件下，成本提高会引起价格水平的普遍上涨，带来成本推动型的通胀。\n当前对输入性通胀的讨论主要都是基于这个逻辑。但是，上述机制要发挥作用，至少要满足三个必要条件：\n一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者，国内的供需状态基本无法对国际商品价格产生影响，且本国的汇率升值不能抵消进口价格的上涨。\n如若不然，“输入性”也就无从谈起。这也是为什么这一机制在“小国开放经济”模型中会有显著作用。\n二是国外进口原材料的成本在国内生产成本中占主要部分，其价格变动会显著影响国内产成品的价格。\n艾进等（2015）根据物价水平受劳动力、原材料、土地三大要素价格影响的模型计算，发现CPI 对三大要素价格的平均反应弹性分别为0.16、0.08 和0.02，由此计算出2009年8月至2010年9月劳动力、原材料、土地价格从成本角度对CPI 的贡献比例分别为74%、17%和9%。可见在成本因素中，劳动力成本占据绝对主导地位。\nLe Blanc等（2014）也曾指出，20世纪70年代石油危机带来的油价上涨对美、日、法等发达国家的通货膨胀造成了很大影响，但2000年之后，油价对这些国家通胀的影响变得十分有限。\nBernank等(2004) 也发现，进入21世纪以后大宗商品价格对CPI影响较小，他们总结的原因在于原材料占总成本比重变小，且部分成本已经被生产商或经销商利润所吸收。\n三是PPI对CPI有通畅的传导效应。王京晶（2011）在对输入性通胀进行研究时发现，国际金融衍生品价格、进口价格主要改变生产厂商的生产要素价格, 最终表现为PPI的变动。但是，由于PPI与CPI之间传导不通畅，输入型通胀因素对CPI波动的影响程度被大大削弱。\n2.2 贸易机制下的输入性通胀\n传导逻辑：当国外出现通货膨胀、价格上涨时，会刺激出口商更多向外国出口商品，同时抑制本国居民对国外进口商品的消费，而转为增加对本国商品的消费，最终带来国内总需求增加，引发国内通胀。上述机制如要成立，也要满足两个必要条件：\n一是固定汇率。在上述价格机制下，国外的通胀因素如果要对贸易结构产生作用，就必须要求本国的汇率固定，否则国内外价格的相对变动会体现为汇率的变化。\n二是本国出口商品的供给价格弹性和进口商品的需求价格弹性都要足够大。如果本国出口商品的供给价格弹性小，即使国外价格变动很大，国内出口也不会受到很大影响。同时，如果国内对进口商品的需求价格弹性也小，进口商品涨价不会显著影响需求量。\n2.3 稳汇率导致的输入性通胀\n传导机制：当国外出现通货膨胀和价格上涨时，会造成外币相对于本币的贬值，本币升值预期会造成大量国际资本的流入。出于维护本国汇率稳定的目的，本国央行会被动增加货币供给，进而刺激国内总需求并导致通胀。\n这种机制成立的必要条件是保持汇率稳定是央行的重要目标。换言之，在三难选择中央行实际上放弃了货币政策的独立性，选择了汇率稳定和资本自由流动。\n2011年关于输入性通胀的讨论\n当前，国际大宗商品市场存在一定的涨价趋势，部分观点将这一趋势与国内PPI的上行相关联，提出对“输入性通胀”的担忧。我们可以简单复盘上一轮关于输入性通胀的集中讨论，也就是2011年。\n如图1所示，当时CPI当月同比增速从2010年初开始持续冲高至2011年7月6.5%，PPI增速也运行在7%左右的高位。当时的经济背景是，全球正处于应对国际金融冲击后的政策大宽松时期，国际大宗商品价格飙升。北海布伦特与WTI原油收盘价均在2011年上半年突破100美元/桶，当年4月，伦敦金属交易所的铜、锡、铅、铝价格同比分别上涨21.4%、72.3%、25.7%和13.9%。芝加哥交易所的玉米、小麦、大豆、豆油价格分别上涨了96.2%、61.2%、44%和48.6%。\n图1：2009-2013年CPI与PPI月同比增速（%）走势\n\n在这样的背景下，市场和学界围绕防范输入性通货膨胀风险展开了一定讨论。\n彭森（2012）全面分析了全球的宽松货币环境、国际资金炒作大宗商品、石油生产国政治不稳定和经济恢复等因素对国内通胀的影响；并从数据表现上描述了国际商品价格通过商品、资本和信息流动渠道对国内价格的传导。\n但是，伍戈（2011）则梳理了输入型通胀的内涵及其传导机理，发现输入性通胀并不能解释历史上各国通胀的差异；并尝试用货币存量与经济总量的偏离程度解释上述通胀差异，有较好的解释效果，由此提出抑制国内通胀的首要手段依然是控制好国内货币总量。中国发展研究基金会也在2011年6月组织研讨会分析当时通胀的成因和趋势。\n简单复盘当时的宏观背景，不难发现国内的刺激政策才是造成通胀的主要原因，所谓国际大宗商品价格上涨，一定程度上是“出口转内销”的结果。\n为应对全球性金融危机, “4万亿”刺激计划逐步推进, 2009年和2010年我国M1 和M2增速均处于20%以上, M2与GDP同比增速差额和M2占GDP比重均处在当时的历史高位。同时，2009年和2010年新增信贷额分别达到9.58万亿元和7.92万亿元。\n根据当时中金公司（2011）的一项测算，2008-2010年，中国贡献了全球新增货币中的60%。[数据来源于《中国发展研究基金会研究参考》2011年第19号，其中记录了当时中金公司代表在2011年6月3日由中国发展研究基金会主办的宏观经济形势分析会上的发言，发言中对这一数据做了表述。]\n大规模资金主要以政策驱动、政府投资的形式进入实体经济, 激发了国内的投资需求和消费需求，稳定了经济增长，但也形成了阶段性的超额需求，抬升了总体价格水平。当相关基建逐渐转换为生产力、促进生产率和总供给的扩大之后，当时的通胀形势也逐渐缓和下来，到了2011年12月，CPI月同比增速开始回落至4.1%，此后又逐步降至2012年7月份的1.8%。\n从结果看，2011年恰是那一轮商品价格的高点，同时也是全球通胀水平的周期性高点。自那以后，全球大宗商品进入了持续5年的下跌周期，对抗通缩压力成为了新的主旋律。\n现阶段中国不具备输入性通胀的条件\n1. 基本事实：PPI明显强于CPI\n从CPI观察价格走势，其主导因素仍集中于食品供给端和疫后需求恢复。猪肉供给持续恢复会带动整体CPI下行，服务业复苏加快，但距离常态还有一定距离，核心CPI已经脱离底部，但持续上行速率不会太高。\n2021年1-3月，CPI累计增速为零，整体CPI的走势依然数主要受高基数和猪肉供给增强的影响。\n1-3月食品类CPI累计同比增速为0.2%，较去年同期20.3%的高增速下降了20.1个百分点。食品类消费品中，猪肉依旧是最大的扰动因素。受此前春节期间冷冻肉投放增加和生猪存栏持续恢复影响，22省市平均猪肉价格已经从2021年1月1日的48.83元/千克降至4月2日的38.9/千克，降幅20.3%。CPI中的猪肉分项在1-3月的累计降幅也达到12.5%，拉动整体CPI在低位运行。\n此外，今年1-3月份，全国未出现影响较大的极端天气，保证了鲜菜等时令性食品供给的充足，鲜菜类CPI1-3月累计同比增速4.8%，较去年同期下降了4.2个百分点。\n图2：CPI与食品分项、猪肉分项月累计同比增速走势\n\n图3：生猪供给对本轮猪价变动起到主要作用\n\n观察剔除了能源和食品影响的核心CPI走势，可见其自2018年以来一路下行的趋势。在2020年，受疫情冲击后的需求收缩影响，这一下行趋势的速率明显加快。2020年，当核心CPI当月同比增速在3月份触及1.2%后，继续一路下降到12月的0.4%。进入2021年，核心CPI当月同比增速为-0.3%，达到历史最低值。但在3月份，当月同比增速0.3%，核心CPI脱离了持续下行的趋势。这主要来源于，2月份以来，我国疫情防控基本扑灭了1月份各地的局部聚集疫情，服务性消费恢复走上了正轨。\n图4：核心CPI与服务CPI当月同比增速走势\n\n展望整体CPI走势，食品尤其是猪肉供需状态仍是不容忽视的因素。根据农业农村部相关负责人表示，按2020年的各月生猪存栏量环比平均递增2.1%的速度，预计到2021年6月份左右，生猪存栏量就会完全恢复到2017年的存栏水平。所以，整体CPI的在下一阶段下行的动力依旧显著。还要注意到服务业逐步恢复但节奏仍偏缓慢，疫后居民消费需求依然偏弱，核心CPI脱离底部后上行的速率预计仍会较低。\n市场普遍谈论的通胀压力实际上主要集中于PPI。3月份PPI同比增4.4%，环比增1.6%，为历史最高环比涨幅。我们用每个工业行业的规模以上企业2020年的营收占比作为权重，按照《上证产业链指数系列编制方案》中的上中下游划分办法，可以计算出上中下游工业行业各自的PPI当月同比增速（图5）。可以发现，整体工业品的价格上涨在数据表现主要来源于产业链上游行业的涨价。\n图5：按营收权重分解上中下游工业行业PPI当月同比增速(%)\n\n但上游工业行业的涨价也并不能一概而论，我们以2020年1月2日的价格为基期，以2021年4月23日的最新数据观察黑色、有色、原油和农产品四大类大宗商品在疫情之后的南华商品指数变动（图6）。与疫情之前相比，黑色金属涨幅最大（152%），其次是有色金属（39%），接着是农产品（19%），而原油则仍有33%的跌幅。\n图6：各类大宗商品的南华商品指数走势\n\n2. 中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险\n如前文所述，输入性通胀有三种主要作用机制（图7），当前讨论实际上基本集中在成本推动途径上。\n综合来看，要产生输入性通胀，至少有要有三个条件：一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者；二是固定汇率制度的安排；三是国内各类工业品价格和消费品价格的通畅传导。\n现阶段，这三个条件在中国基本都不成立，中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险。\n图7：输入性通胀三种主要作用机制和必要条件\n\n首先，中国是全球第二大经济体，并不是作为价格接受者的小国经济。中国对大宗商品的需求会对国际大宗商品价格产生显著影响。\n王安建和王高尚（2019）的研究表明，2018 年全球主要40 种矿产资源中，我国有30种矿产消费量居世界第一位[数据来源于《全球矿产资源战略研究工作报告》，王安建、王高尚主编。]。\n根据统计（图8），我国能源和重要矿产消费量中占全球比例超过50%的矿种有12种，超过40%的有23种。这些矿产资源中不乏煤炭、水泥灰岩、铁、锰、铜、铝、铅、锌和磷等大宗。\n图8：2018 年中国主要矿产消费量占全球比例\n数据来源：王安建,高芯蕊.中国能源与重要矿产资源需求展望[J].中国科学院院刊,2020,35(03):338-344.\n其次，经过多年的改革，目前人民币汇率的弹性大大增强，能够比较充分反映各类经济信息。本轮大宗商品价格上涨的过程中，汇率升值对依赖外部进口的大宗商品价格上涨事实上起到了对冲作用。（图9）。\n图9：南华商品综合指数与人民币汇率指数走势\n\n最后，在本轮经济复苏过程中，CPI和PPI则出现明显背离，只有PPI在快速上升，更能综合反映物价变化的GDP平减指数也没有显著上升。即使中国经济已经持续复苏了4个季度，实际面临的通胀压力也并不大。\n这种背离并不是新现象。2016年之后，PPI与CPI就一直存在持续背离。这至少说明，过去五年里，并没有看到PPI能够向CPI传导的有效证据，从生产端向消费端的价格传导机制并不顺畅。\n综上可知，中国不具备输入性通胀的基础，不必担忧所谓的输入性通胀。国内经济的恢复节奏和结构特征可以解释大部分的大宗商品价格上涨。如前文图6所示，当前国内大宗商品的价格上涨最突出是黑色金属的涨价，有色金属位于其次。而2021年3月分行业的PPI同比增速中，黑色金属的采选业以34.7%的增速位居全行业最高，黑色金属加工业21.5%的增速也位居前列；有色金属加工（21.3%）和有色金属采选（13.3%）的高PPI增速也与有色价格的上涨互相印证。而结合图8数据，在黑色金属中，我国对铬的需求量全球占比超过60%，对锰和铁的需求量则接近50%；有色金属中，我国对钨的需求量全球占比接近80%，对铝、铜的需求量也超过50%。在我国对主要金属矿产需求占全球需求量如此巨大的背景下，国内需求变动才是影响价格的主因。\n通胀是总量问题，通胀的表述隐含着经济过热的意义，这会对货币政策形成掣肘。近两个月的宏观数据表明，我国经济尚处于复苏通道中，核心CPI也刚刚脱离连续下滑的趋势，许多服务性行业虽然在持续恢复，但距离常态还有一定距离，此时讨论通胀压力为时尚早。\n应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。2016年之后，上游行业占工业企业利润的比重显著上升，2019年略有下降，但依然比2016年之前的水平更高。\n为改善这一产业链利润分配失调局面，一方面，可以继续使用针对性的减税降费措施，改善下游、中小企业的现金流，但考虑到目前财政收支形势的困境，结构性的财政政策发挥作用的空间也是有限的。另一方面，依然要从总量层面扩大总需求，在经济还未恢复到疫情正常水平时，应坚定不移的使用扩张性宏观管理政策，不应对大宗商品价格走势过度反应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":107506120,"gmtCreate":1620519477260,"gmtModify":1704344465821,"author":{"id":"3580330978833195","authorId":"3580330978833195","name":"VersaillesLi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca74aeaa97cb87febbf8247318cbb951","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580330978833195","authorIdStr":"3580330978833195"},"htmlText":"[開心]&nbsp;[開心]&nbsp;[開心]&nbsp;[開心]&nbsp;","listText":"[開心]&nbsp;[開心]&nbsp;[開心]&nbsp;[開心]&nbsp;","text":"[開心] [開心] [開心] [開心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107506120","repostId":1119886772,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119886772","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620436108,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119886772?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-08 09:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Does China need to worry about imported inflation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119886772","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：我国不具备输入性通胀的三个条件。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。\n\n近","content":"Abstract: China does not have three conditions for imported inflation. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. But on the whole, there are at least three conditions to produce imported inflation: first, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage, these three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China does not have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rising commodity prices-Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it.The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industrial chain, on the one hand,We can continue to use targeted tax and fee reduction measures to improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprisesHowever, considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, the space for structural fiscal policy to play a role is also limited. On the other hand,It is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends.--Zhu He and Sheng Zhongming, young researchers at China Financial Forty Forum (CF40)Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. Combing the existing academic research and facts can find that,Imported inflation has its specific mechanism, and China's reality does not fully meet its conditions.The current phased rise in PPI is certainly related to the rise in commodity prices, but it is far from the so-called \"imported inflation\", should not be misunderstood as \"imported inflation\" to avoid misjudgment in decision-making.1. Definition and mechanism of imported inflation1. How academic papers define imported inflationImported inflation refers to the increase of the overall domestic price level caused by the change of external economic factors.International research on Imported Inflation (Imported Inflation) began during the oil crisis in 1970s. In his study of American inflation from 1971 to 1974, Cagan (1980) mainly attributed the domestic price increase to external shocks, and proposed that this externally transmitted inflation cannot be effectively controlled through domestic monetary policy. Kolodko (1987) defines imported inflation as an upward trend in prices \"caused by abnormal inflows of effective demand in excess of supply or increasing import costs\".However, judging from the history of two continuous sharp price increases of international commodities in the last half century, it seems that imported inflation pairs cannot well explain the inflation differences among countries during the same period.Friedman (1979) compared the inflation levels of the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom during the oil crisis, and found that the inflation levels of various countries did not all change synchronously with the rise of oil prices, and imported inflation was difficult to explain the differences in inflation among countries.He noted that in the early 1970s, inflation in Japan and the UK was above 30% a year, while inflation in the US was around 10% and Germany was less than 5%. In the five years after the oil crisis in 1973, inflation in Germany and Japan slowed down. The annual inflation rate in Germany decreased from about 7% to less than 5%, and that in Japan decreased from more than 30% to 5%; Inflation in the United States reached its peak in the following year, about 12%, dropped to 5% in 1976, and then rose to more than 13% in 1979.He also pointed out that \"Germany and Japan are 100% imported oil, but they have done a better job of reducing inflation than the United States, which imports 50% of oil, or Britain, which has become a big oil producer.\" These significant differences cannot be explained by the impact of the oil crisis.Wu Ge (2011) also sorted out the different manifestations of inflation in different countries in the rising trend of international oil prices from the beginning of the 21st century to 2008, and found that the inflation rate in various countries was basically stable within 4%-5%, which was significantly lower than the 10% during the oil crisis in the 1970s. With an increase of more than 20%, the volatility of inflation itself has become more moderate, and its linkage with commodity prices seems to be weakening. Under the impact of international commodity prices, the inflation rate of countries with high oil dependence such as Germany and Japan has remained at a low level; The U.S. oil dependence is relatively low, but the inflation rate is relatively high. As a major oil producer, Britain's inflation rate is the highest among the four countries.These basic facts show that,Imported inflation or external cost shocks cannot well explain the differences in inflation performance among countries.2. Transmission mechanism of imported inflationThe existing academic research generally divides the influence ways of external factors on domestic price level into three categories, and then constructs an econometric model to verify the corresponding transmission mechanism.Most of these econometric models use indicators such as international commodity prices and money supply of other countries to reflect external factors as explanatory variables, and take changes in domestic CPI and PPI as explained variables. Then, different models are used to verify whether external factors have a significant impact on domestic price levels and how strong the explanation is.We found that there are obvious differences in the research conclusions of the existing academic studies.2.1 Imported inflation under the cost push mechanismTransmission mechanism: Rising prices of imported goods push up the cost of domestic basic products. In the absence of excess demand, rising costs will cause a general increase in price levels and bring about cost-driven inflation.The current discussion on imported inflation is mainly based on this logic. But,For the above mechanism to work, at least three necessary conditions must be met:First, China is the recipient of international commodity price changes, and the domestic supply and demand state basically cannot affect international commodity prices, and the appreciation of its exchange rate cannot offset the increase of import prices.Otherwise, \"input\" will be impossible to talk about. This is why this mechanism will play a significant role in the model of \"small country open economy\".Second, the cost of imported raw materials accounts for the main part of domestic production costs, and its price changes will significantly affect the price of domestic finished products.Ai Jin et al. (2015) calculated according to the model that the price level is affected by the prices of labor, raw materials and land, and found that the average response elasticity of CPI to the prices of the three factors was 0.16, 0.08 and 0.02, respectively. From August 2009 to September 2010, the contribution ratios of labor, raw materials and land prices to CPI from the perspective of cost were 74%, 17% and 9% respectively. It can be seen that among the cost factors, labor cost occupies an absolutely dominant position.Le Blanc et al. (2014) also pointed out that the rise in oil prices brought about by the oil crisis in 1970s had a great impact on inflation in developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and France. However, after 2000, the impact of oil prices on inflation in these countries became very limited.Bernank et al. (2004) also found that after entering the 21st century, commodity prices have little impact on CPI. The reason they concluded is that the proportion of raw materials in the total cost has become smaller, and part of the cost has been absorbed by the profits of manufacturers or distributors.Third, PPI has a smooth transmission effect on CPI.When Wang Jingjing (2011) studied imported inflation, he found that the price of international financial derivatives and import price mainly changed the price of production factors of manufacturers, which ultimately showed the change of PPI. However, due to the poor transmission between PPI and CPI, the influence of imported inflation factors on CPI fluctuations has been greatly weakened.2.2 Imported inflation under the trade mechanismTransmission logic: When inflation and price rises occur abroad, it will stimulate exporters to export more goods to foreign countries, and at the same time restrain domestic residents' consumption of foreign imported goods, and instead increase the consumption of domestic goods, which will ultimately bring about domestic total demand. Increased demand triggers domestic inflation.If the above mechanism is to be established, it must also meet two necessary conditions:One is a fixed exchange rate.Under the above-mentioned price mechanism, if foreign inflation factors want to have an effect on the trade structure, they must require the domestic exchange rate to be fixed, otherwise the relative changes of domestic and foreign prices will be reflected in changes in exchange rates.Second, the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities and the demand price elasticity of imported commodities should be large enough。 If the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities is small, even if foreign prices change greatly, domestic exports will not be greatly affected. At the same time, if the price elasticity of domestic demand for imported goods is also small, the price increase of imported goods will not significantly affect the demand.2.3 Imported inflation caused by stable exchange rateTransmission mechanism: When inflation and price increase occur abroad, it will cause the foreign currency to depreciate relative to the local currency, and the appreciation of the local currency is expected to cause a large inflow of international capital. For the purpose of maintaining the stability of the country's exchange rate, the country's central bank will passively increase the money supply, thereby stimulating domestic aggregate demand and leading to inflation.The necessary condition for the establishment of this mechanism is that maintaining exchange rate stability is an important goal of the central bank. In other words, in the trilemma, the central bank actually gave up the independence of monetary policy and chose exchange rate stability and free capital flow.Discussion on imported inflation in 2011At present, there is a certain price increase trend in the international commodity market. Some views associate this trend with the upward trend of domestic PPI and raise concerns about \"imported inflation\". We can simply focus on the last round of concentrated discussion on imported inflation in review, that is, in 2011.As shown in Figure 1, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI continued to rise from the beginning of 2010 to 6.5% in July 2011, and the growth rate of PPI also ran at a high level of around 7%. The economic background at that time was that the world was in a period of great policy easing after responding to the international financial shock, and international commodity prices soared. The closing prices of North Sea Brent and WTI crude oil both exceeded US $100/barrel in the first half of 2011. In April of that year, the prices of copper, tin, lead and aluminum on the London Metal Exchange rose by 21.4%, 72.3%, 25.7% and 13.9% respectively year-on-year.%. The prices of corn, wheat, soybeans and soybean oil on the Chicago Exchange rose by 96.2%, 61.2%, 44% and 48.6% respectively.Figure 1: 2009-2013 CPI and PPI monthly year-on-year growth rate (%) trend<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0189eeea4f2edbd48077b454feb916b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Under this background, the market and academic circles have held some discussions on preventing the risk of imported inflation.Peng Sen (2012) comprehensively analyzed the impact of factors such as the global loose monetary environment, international capital speculation on commodities, political instability and economic recovery in oil producing countries on domestic inflation; From the data performance, it describes the transmission of international commodity prices to domestic prices through commodity, capital and information flow channels.However, Wu Ge (2011) sorted out the connotation and transmission mechanism of imported inflation, and found that imported inflation could not explain the differences in inflation among countries in history; And try to explain the above inflation difference with the deviation between the money stock and the economic aggregate, which has a good explanatory effect. Therefore, it is proposed that the primary means to curb domestic inflation is still to control the domestic money aggregate. China Development Research Foundation also organized a seminar in June 2011 to analyze the causes and trends of inflation at that time.Simply review's macro background at that time, it is not difficult to findDomestic stimulus policies are the main cause of inflation. The so-called rise in international commodity prices is, to a certain extent, the result of \"export to domestic sales\".In response to the global financial crisis, the \"4 trillion\" stimulus plan was gradually promoted. In 2009 and 2010, my country's M1 and M2 growth rates were both above 20%. The difference between the year-on-year growth rates of M2 and GDP and the proportion of M2 to GDP were both at that time. historical highs. At the same time, the amount of new credit in 2009 and 2010 reached 9.58 trillion yuan and 7.92 trillion yuan respectively.According to a calculation by CICC (2011) at that time, from 2008 to 2010, China contributed 60% of the world's new currency. [The data comes from \"China Development Research Foundation Research Reference\" No. 19, 2011, which recorded the speech made by the representative of CICC at the macroeconomic situation analysis meeting hosted by China Development Research Foundation on June 3, 2011, in which this data was stated.]Large-scale funds mainly enter the real economy in the form of policy-driven and government investment, which stimulates domestic investment demand and consumer demand and stabilizes economic growth, but also forms periodic excess demand and raises the overall price level. When related infrastructure was gradually converted into productivity, promoting the expansion of productivity and total supply, the inflation situation at that time gradually eased. By December 2011, the monthly CPI growth rate began to fall back to 4.1%, and then gradually dropped to 1.8% in July 2012.As a result, 2011 was the high point of that round of commodity prices, and it was also the cyclical high point of global inflation. Since then, global commodities have entered a five-year downward cycle, and fighting deflationary pressures has become the new main theme.China does not have the conditions for imported inflation at this stage1. Basic fact: PPI is significantly stronger than CPIObserving the price trend from CPI, the dominant factors are still concentrated on the food supply side and the recovery of post-epidemic demand.The continued recovery of pork supply will drive the overall CPI down, and the recovery of the service industry will accelerate, but there is still a certain distance from normal. The core CPI has left the bottom, but the continued upward rate will not be too high.From January to March 2021, the cumulative growth rate of CPI was zero, and the overall CPI trend was still mainly affected by the high base and increased pork supply.The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of food CPI from January to March was 0.2%, which was 20.1 percentage points lower than the high growth rate of 20.3% in the same period last year. Among food consumer goods, pork is still the biggest disturbance factor. Affected by the increase in frozen meat delivery during the Spring Festival and the continuous recovery of live pigs, the average pork price in 22 provinces and cities has dropped from 48.83 yuan/kg on January 1, 2021 to 38.9/kg on April 2, a decrease of 20.3%. The cumulative decline of the pork sub-item in the CPI from January to March also reached 12.5%, driving the overall CPI to run at a low level.In addition, from January to March this year, there was no extreme weather with great impact in the country, which ensured the sufficient supply of seasonal foods such as fresh vegetables. The cumulative growth rate of fresh vegetables CPI from January to March was 4.8% year-on-year, down 4.2 percentage points from the same period last year. percentage points.Figure 2: Monthly cumulative year-on-year growth trend of CPI, food sub-items, and pork sub-items<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c113e7896f0edf18eb10f5b04adb8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Figure 3: Pig supply plays a major role in this round of pig price changes<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c04dfc28112ae1a659c197c6371208\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Observing the core CPI trend excluding the impact of energy and food, it can be seen that it has been downward since 2018. In 2020, affected by the contraction of demand after the impact of the epidemic, the rate of this downward trend has accelerated significantly.In 2020, when the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI hit 1.2% in March, it continued to fall all the way to 0.4% in December. Entering 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI in that month was-0.3%, reaching a historical low. However, in March, the year-on-year growth rate was 0.3%, and the core CPI broke away from the continuous downward trend. This mainly comes from the fact that since February, my country's epidemic prevention and control has basically extinguished local epidemic clusters in various places in January, and the recovery of service consumption is on the right track.Figure 4: Year-on-year growth trend of core CPI and service CPI in that month<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a3a2b093ec625ab2948977a9fbd2cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking forward to the overall CPI trend, the supply and demand of food, especially pork, is still a factor that cannot be ignored.According to the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, according to the average increase rate of 2.1% month-on-month in the number of live pigs in each month of 2020, it is expected that by around June 2021, the number of live pigs will fully recover to the level of 2017. Therefore, the downward momentum of the overall CPI in the next stage is still significant. It should also be noted that the service industry is gradually recovering but the pace is still slow. After the epidemic, residents' consumption demand is still weak, and the upward rate of the core CPI after it breaks away from the bottom is expected to remain low.The inflationary pressures commonly talked about in the market are actually mainly concentrated on PPI。 In March, PPI increased by 4.4% year-on-year and 1.6% month-on-month, the highest month-on-month increase in history. We use the revenue proportion of enterprises above designated size in each industrial industry in 2020 as the weight. According to the upstream, midstream and downstream division method in the \"Shanghai Stock Exchange Industry Chain Index Series Compilation Plan\", we can calculate the respective PPIs of the upstream, midstream and downstream industrial industries in that month. Year-on-year growth rate (Figure 5). It can be found that the overall price increase of industrial products mainly comes from the price increase of upstream industries in the industrial chain.Figure 5: Decomposition of PPI growth rate of upstream, midstream and downstream industrial sectors by revenue weight (%)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aab13d68f58375336de5030f918d5fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, the price increase of the upstream industrial industry cannot be generalized. We use the price on January 2, 2020 as the base period, and use the latest data on April 23, 2021 to observe the price increase of the four major categories of bulk commodities: black, nonferrous metals, crude oil and agricultural products. Changes in the South China Commodity Index after the epidemic (Figure 6). Compared with pre-pandemic, ferrous metals rose the most (152%), followed by non-ferrous metals (39%), followed by agricultural products (19%), while crude oil still suffered a 33% decline.Figure 6: South China Commodity Index Trends of Various Commodities<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a327db62ac8614240225e9e4a91ff5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. China does not need to worry about the risk of imported inflationAs mentioned earlier, there are three main mechanisms of imported inflation (Figure 7), and the current discussion actually basically focuses on the cost-driving approach.Taken together,To produce imported inflation, there are at least three conditions:First, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage,These three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China doesn't have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.Figure 7: Three main mechanisms and necessary conditions of imported inflation<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079a9dc08120e455d5ea8fcbb744ee74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">First, China is the second largest economy in the world, not a small country as a price-taker。 China's demand for commodities will have a significant impact on international commodity prices.The research of Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang (2019) shows that among the 40 major mineral resources in the world in 2018, 30 mineral consumption in China ranked first in the world [data from Global Mineral Resources Strategy Research Work Report, edited by Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang.].According to statistics (Figure 8), there are 12 kinds of minerals accounting for more than 50% of the world's energy and important mineral consumption in China, and 23 kinds account for more than 40%. These mineral resources include coal, cement limestone, iron, manganese, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and phosphorus.Figure 8: China's major mineral consumption accounted for global proportion in 2018<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/095cf77cf2d2bfb4cd658c3b914490d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wang Anjian, Gao Xinrui. Outlook for China's energy and important mineral resources demand [J]. Proceedings of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2020, 35 (03): 338-344.Secondly, after years of reform, the flexibility of RMB exchange rate has been greatly enhanced at present, which can fully reflect all kinds of economic information.In the process of this round of rising commodity prices, the appreciation of exchange rate has actually played a hedging role in rising commodity prices that rely on external imports. (Figure 9).Figure 9: Trends of South China Commodity Composite Index and RMB Exchange Rate Index<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12aa64af51e8b77972eb748a495ffc48\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, during this round of economic recovery, CPI and PPI have obviously diverged. Only PPI is rising rapidly, and the GDP deflator, which can better reflect price changes, has not risen significantly.Even though China's economy has continued to recover for four quarters, the actual inflationary pressure it faces is not great.This divergence is not a new phenomenon. After 2016, there has been a continuous divergence between PPI and CPI. This at least shows that,In the past five years, there has been no effective evidence that PPI can be transmitted to CPI, and the price transmission mechanism from the production side to the consumer side is not smooth.To sum up, China does not have the basis for imported inflation, so there is no need to worry about the so-called imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rise in commodity prices.As shown in Figure 6 above, the current price increase of domestic commodities is the most prominent price increase of ferrous metals, followed by non-ferrous metals. Among the year-on-year growth rates of PPI by industry in March 2021, the ferrous metal mining and dressing industry ranked the highest in the industry with a growth rate of 34.7%, and the ferrous metal processing industry also ranked at the forefront with a growth rate of 21.5%; The high PPI growth rates of non-ferrous metal processing (21.3%) and non-ferrous metal mining (13.3%) also confirm the rise in non-ferrous metal prices. Combined with the data in Figure 8, among ferrous metals, China's demand for chromium accounts for more than 60% of the world, and its demand for manganese and iron is close to 50%; Among non-ferrous metals, my country's demand for tungsten accounts for nearly 80% of the world, and its demand for aluminum and copper also exceeds 50%.Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices.Inflation is a total issue, and the expression of inflation implies the meaning of economic overheating, which will constrain monetary policy. The macro data of the past two months shows that my country's economy is still in the recovery channel, and the core CPI has just broken away from the continuous downward trend. Although many service industries continue to recover, they are still a certain distance from normal. It is too early to discuss inflationary pressure at this time.To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits.After 2016, the proportion of upstream industries in the profits of industrial enterprises increased significantly, and declined slightly in 2019, but it was still higher than the level before 2016.In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industry chain,On the one hand, we can continue to use targeted tax reduction and fee reduction measures,Improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprises, but considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, there is limited room for structural fiscal policies to play a role.On the other hand, it is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends。","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does China need to worry about imported inflation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoes China need to worry about imported inflation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-05-08 09:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAbstract: China does not have three conditions for imported inflation. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. But on the whole, there are at least three conditions to produce imported inflation: first, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage, these three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China does not have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rising commodity prices-Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it.The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industrial chain, on the one hand,We can continue to use targeted tax and fee reduction measures to improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprisesHowever, considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, the space for structural fiscal policy to play a role is also limited. On the other hand,It is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends.--Zhu He and Sheng Zhongming, young researchers at China Financial Forty Forum (CF40)Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. Combing the existing academic research and facts can find that,Imported inflation has its specific mechanism, and China's reality does not fully meet its conditions.The current phased rise in PPI is certainly related to the rise in commodity prices, but it is far from the so-called \"imported inflation\", should not be misunderstood as \"imported inflation\" to avoid misjudgment in decision-making.1. Definition and mechanism of imported inflation1. How academic papers define imported inflationImported inflation refers to the increase of the overall domestic price level caused by the change of external economic factors.International research on Imported Inflation (Imported Inflation) began during the oil crisis in 1970s. In his study of American inflation from 1971 to 1974, Cagan (1980) mainly attributed the domestic price increase to external shocks, and proposed that this externally transmitted inflation cannot be effectively controlled through domestic monetary policy. Kolodko (1987) defines imported inflation as an upward trend in prices \"caused by abnormal inflows of effective demand in excess of supply or increasing import costs\".However, judging from the history of two continuous sharp price increases of international commodities in the last half century, it seems that imported inflation pairs cannot well explain the inflation differences among countries during the same period.Friedman (1979) compared the inflation levels of the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom during the oil crisis, and found that the inflation levels of various countries did not all change synchronously with the rise of oil prices, and imported inflation was difficult to explain the differences in inflation among countries.He noted that in the early 1970s, inflation in Japan and the UK was above 30% a year, while inflation in the US was around 10% and Germany was less than 5%. In the five years after the oil crisis in 1973, inflation in Germany and Japan slowed down. The annual inflation rate in Germany decreased from about 7% to less than 5%, and that in Japan decreased from more than 30% to 5%; Inflation in the United States reached its peak in the following year, about 12%, dropped to 5% in 1976, and then rose to more than 13% in 1979.He also pointed out that \"Germany and Japan are 100% imported oil, but they have done a better job of reducing inflation than the United States, which imports 50% of oil, or Britain, which has become a big oil producer.\" These significant differences cannot be explained by the impact of the oil crisis.Wu Ge (2011) also sorted out the different manifestations of inflation in different countries in the rising trend of international oil prices from the beginning of the 21st century to 2008, and found that the inflation rate in various countries was basically stable within 4%-5%, which was significantly lower than the 10% during the oil crisis in the 1970s. With an increase of more than 20%, the volatility of inflation itself has become more moderate, and its linkage with commodity prices seems to be weakening. Under the impact of international commodity prices, the inflation rate of countries with high oil dependence such as Germany and Japan has remained at a low level; The U.S. oil dependence is relatively low, but the inflation rate is relatively high. As a major oil producer, Britain's inflation rate is the highest among the four countries.These basic facts show that,Imported inflation or external cost shocks cannot well explain the differences in inflation performance among countries.2. Transmission mechanism of imported inflationThe existing academic research generally divides the influence ways of external factors on domestic price level into three categories, and then constructs an econometric model to verify the corresponding transmission mechanism.Most of these econometric models use indicators such as international commodity prices and money supply of other countries to reflect external factors as explanatory variables, and take changes in domestic CPI and PPI as explained variables. Then, different models are used to verify whether external factors have a significant impact on domestic price levels and how strong the explanation is.We found that there are obvious differences in the research conclusions of the existing academic studies.2.1 Imported inflation under the cost push mechanismTransmission mechanism: Rising prices of imported goods push up the cost of domestic basic products. In the absence of excess demand, rising costs will cause a general increase in price levels and bring about cost-driven inflation.The current discussion on imported inflation is mainly based on this logic. But,For the above mechanism to work, at least three necessary conditions must be met:First, China is the recipient of international commodity price changes, and the domestic supply and demand state basically cannot affect international commodity prices, and the appreciation of its exchange rate cannot offset the increase of import prices.Otherwise, \"input\" will be impossible to talk about. This is why this mechanism will play a significant role in the model of \"small country open economy\".Second, the cost of imported raw materials accounts for the main part of domestic production costs, and its price changes will significantly affect the price of domestic finished products.Ai Jin et al. (2015) calculated according to the model that the price level is affected by the prices of labor, raw materials and land, and found that the average response elasticity of CPI to the prices of the three factors was 0.16, 0.08 and 0.02, respectively. From August 2009 to September 2010, the contribution ratios of labor, raw materials and land prices to CPI from the perspective of cost were 74%, 17% and 9% respectively. It can be seen that among the cost factors, labor cost occupies an absolutely dominant position.Le Blanc et al. (2014) also pointed out that the rise in oil prices brought about by the oil crisis in 1970s had a great impact on inflation in developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and France. However, after 2000, the impact of oil prices on inflation in these countries became very limited.Bernank et al. (2004) also found that after entering the 21st century, commodity prices have little impact on CPI. The reason they concluded is that the proportion of raw materials in the total cost has become smaller, and part of the cost has been absorbed by the profits of manufacturers or distributors.Third, PPI has a smooth transmission effect on CPI.When Wang Jingjing (2011) studied imported inflation, he found that the price of international financial derivatives and import price mainly changed the price of production factors of manufacturers, which ultimately showed the change of PPI. However, due to the poor transmission between PPI and CPI, the influence of imported inflation factors on CPI fluctuations has been greatly weakened.2.2 Imported inflation under the trade mechanismTransmission logic: When inflation and price rises occur abroad, it will stimulate exporters to export more goods to foreign countries, and at the same time restrain domestic residents' consumption of foreign imported goods, and instead increase the consumption of domestic goods, which will ultimately bring about domestic total demand. Increased demand triggers domestic inflation.If the above mechanism is to be established, it must also meet two necessary conditions:One is a fixed exchange rate.Under the above-mentioned price mechanism, if foreign inflation factors want to have an effect on the trade structure, they must require the domestic exchange rate to be fixed, otherwise the relative changes of domestic and foreign prices will be reflected in changes in exchange rates.Second, the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities and the demand price elasticity of imported commodities should be large enough。 If the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities is small, even if foreign prices change greatly, domestic exports will not be greatly affected. At the same time, if the price elasticity of domestic demand for imported goods is also small, the price increase of imported goods will not significantly affect the demand.2.3 Imported inflation caused by stable exchange rateTransmission mechanism: When inflation and price increase occur abroad, it will cause the foreign currency to depreciate relative to the local currency, and the appreciation of the local currency is expected to cause a large inflow of international capital. For the purpose of maintaining the stability of the country's exchange rate, the country's central bank will passively increase the money supply, thereby stimulating domestic aggregate demand and leading to inflation.The necessary condition for the establishment of this mechanism is that maintaining exchange rate stability is an important goal of the central bank. In other words, in the trilemma, the central bank actually gave up the independence of monetary policy and chose exchange rate stability and free capital flow.Discussion on imported inflation in 2011At present, there is a certain price increase trend in the international commodity market. Some views associate this trend with the upward trend of domestic PPI and raise concerns about \"imported inflation\". We can simply focus on the last round of concentrated discussion on imported inflation in review, that is, in 2011.As shown in Figure 1, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI continued to rise from the beginning of 2010 to 6.5% in July 2011, and the growth rate of PPI also ran at a high level of around 7%. The economic background at that time was that the world was in a period of great policy easing after responding to the international financial shock, and international commodity prices soared. The closing prices of North Sea Brent and WTI crude oil both exceeded US $100/barrel in the first half of 2011. In April of that year, the prices of copper, tin, lead and aluminum on the London Metal Exchange rose by 21.4%, 72.3%, 25.7% and 13.9% respectively year-on-year.%. The prices of corn, wheat, soybeans and soybean oil on the Chicago Exchange rose by 96.2%, 61.2%, 44% and 48.6% respectively.Figure 1: 2009-2013 CPI and PPI monthly year-on-year growth rate (%) trend<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0189eeea4f2edbd48077b454feb916b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Under this background, the market and academic circles have held some discussions on preventing the risk of imported inflation.Peng Sen (2012) comprehensively analyzed the impact of factors such as the global loose monetary environment, international capital speculation on commodities, political instability and economic recovery in oil producing countries on domestic inflation; From the data performance, it describes the transmission of international commodity prices to domestic prices through commodity, capital and information flow channels.However, Wu Ge (2011) sorted out the connotation and transmission mechanism of imported inflation, and found that imported inflation could not explain the differences in inflation among countries in history; And try to explain the above inflation difference with the deviation between the money stock and the economic aggregate, which has a good explanatory effect. Therefore, it is proposed that the primary means to curb domestic inflation is still to control the domestic money aggregate. China Development Research Foundation also organized a seminar in June 2011 to analyze the causes and trends of inflation at that time.Simply review's macro background at that time, it is not difficult to findDomestic stimulus policies are the main cause of inflation. The so-called rise in international commodity prices is, to a certain extent, the result of \"export to domestic sales\".In response to the global financial crisis, the \"4 trillion\" stimulus plan was gradually promoted. In 2009 and 2010, my country's M1 and M2 growth rates were both above 20%. The difference between the year-on-year growth rates of M2 and GDP and the proportion of M2 to GDP were both at that time. historical highs. At the same time, the amount of new credit in 2009 and 2010 reached 9.58 trillion yuan and 7.92 trillion yuan respectively.According to a calculation by CICC (2011) at that time, from 2008 to 2010, China contributed 60% of the world's new currency. [The data comes from \"China Development Research Foundation Research Reference\" No. 19, 2011, which recorded the speech made by the representative of CICC at the macroeconomic situation analysis meeting hosted by China Development Research Foundation on June 3, 2011, in which this data was stated.]Large-scale funds mainly enter the real economy in the form of policy-driven and government investment, which stimulates domestic investment demand and consumer demand and stabilizes economic growth, but also forms periodic excess demand and raises the overall price level. When related infrastructure was gradually converted into productivity, promoting the expansion of productivity and total supply, the inflation situation at that time gradually eased. By December 2011, the monthly CPI growth rate began to fall back to 4.1%, and then gradually dropped to 1.8% in July 2012.As a result, 2011 was the high point of that round of commodity prices, and it was also the cyclical high point of global inflation. Since then, global commodities have entered a five-year downward cycle, and fighting deflationary pressures has become the new main theme.China does not have the conditions for imported inflation at this stage1. Basic fact: PPI is significantly stronger than CPIObserving the price trend from CPI, the dominant factors are still concentrated on the food supply side and the recovery of post-epidemic demand.The continued recovery of pork supply will drive the overall CPI down, and the recovery of the service industry will accelerate, but there is still a certain distance from normal. The core CPI has left the bottom, but the continued upward rate will not be too high.From January to March 2021, the cumulative growth rate of CPI was zero, and the overall CPI trend was still mainly affected by the high base and increased pork supply.The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of food CPI from January to March was 0.2%, which was 20.1 percentage points lower than the high growth rate of 20.3% in the same period last year. Among food consumer goods, pork is still the biggest disturbance factor. Affected by the increase in frozen meat delivery during the Spring Festival and the continuous recovery of live pigs, the average pork price in 22 provinces and cities has dropped from 48.83 yuan/kg on January 1, 2021 to 38.9/kg on April 2, a decrease of 20.3%. The cumulative decline of the pork sub-item in the CPI from January to March also reached 12.5%, driving the overall CPI to run at a low level.In addition, from January to March this year, there was no extreme weather with great impact in the country, which ensured the sufficient supply of seasonal foods such as fresh vegetables. The cumulative growth rate of fresh vegetables CPI from January to March was 4.8% year-on-year, down 4.2 percentage points from the same period last year. percentage points.Figure 2: Monthly cumulative year-on-year growth trend of CPI, food sub-items, and pork sub-items<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c113e7896f0edf18eb10f5b04adb8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Figure 3: Pig supply plays a major role in this round of pig price changes<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c04dfc28112ae1a659c197c6371208\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Observing the core CPI trend excluding the impact of energy and food, it can be seen that it has been downward since 2018. In 2020, affected by the contraction of demand after the impact of the epidemic, the rate of this downward trend has accelerated significantly.In 2020, when the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI hit 1.2% in March, it continued to fall all the way to 0.4% in December. Entering 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI in that month was-0.3%, reaching a historical low. However, in March, the year-on-year growth rate was 0.3%, and the core CPI broke away from the continuous downward trend. This mainly comes from the fact that since February, my country's epidemic prevention and control has basically extinguished local epidemic clusters in various places in January, and the recovery of service consumption is on the right track.Figure 4: Year-on-year growth trend of core CPI and service CPI in that month<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a3a2b093ec625ab2948977a9fbd2cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking forward to the overall CPI trend, the supply and demand of food, especially pork, is still a factor that cannot be ignored.According to the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, according to the average increase rate of 2.1% month-on-month in the number of live pigs in each month of 2020, it is expected that by around June 2021, the number of live pigs will fully recover to the level of 2017. Therefore, the downward momentum of the overall CPI in the next stage is still significant. It should also be noted that the service industry is gradually recovering but the pace is still slow. After the epidemic, residents' consumption demand is still weak, and the upward rate of the core CPI after it breaks away from the bottom is expected to remain low.The inflationary pressures commonly talked about in the market are actually mainly concentrated on PPI。 In March, PPI increased by 4.4% year-on-year and 1.6% month-on-month, the highest month-on-month increase in history. We use the revenue proportion of enterprises above designated size in each industrial industry in 2020 as the weight. According to the upstream, midstream and downstream division method in the \"Shanghai Stock Exchange Industry Chain Index Series Compilation Plan\", we can calculate the respective PPIs of the upstream, midstream and downstream industrial industries in that month. Year-on-year growth rate (Figure 5). It can be found that the overall price increase of industrial products mainly comes from the price increase of upstream industries in the industrial chain.Figure 5: Decomposition of PPI growth rate of upstream, midstream and downstream industrial sectors by revenue weight (%)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aab13d68f58375336de5030f918d5fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, the price increase of the upstream industrial industry cannot be generalized. We use the price on January 2, 2020 as the base period, and use the latest data on April 23, 2021 to observe the price increase of the four major categories of bulk commodities: black, nonferrous metals, crude oil and agricultural products. Changes in the South China Commodity Index after the epidemic (Figure 6). Compared with pre-pandemic, ferrous metals rose the most (152%), followed by non-ferrous metals (39%), followed by agricultural products (19%), while crude oil still suffered a 33% decline.Figure 6: South China Commodity Index Trends of Various Commodities<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a327db62ac8614240225e9e4a91ff5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. China does not need to worry about the risk of imported inflationAs mentioned earlier, there are three main mechanisms of imported inflation (Figure 7), and the current discussion actually basically focuses on the cost-driving approach.Taken together,To produce imported inflation, there are at least three conditions:First, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage,These three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China doesn't have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.Figure 7: Three main mechanisms and necessary conditions of imported inflation<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079a9dc08120e455d5ea8fcbb744ee74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">First, China is the second largest economy in the world, not a small country as a price-taker。 China's demand for commodities will have a significant impact on international commodity prices.The research of Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang (2019) shows that among the 40 major mineral resources in the world in 2018, 30 mineral consumption in China ranked first in the world [data from Global Mineral Resources Strategy Research Work Report, edited by Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang.].According to statistics (Figure 8), there are 12 kinds of minerals accounting for more than 50% of the world's energy and important mineral consumption in China, and 23 kinds account for more than 40%. These mineral resources include coal, cement limestone, iron, manganese, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and phosphorus.Figure 8: China's major mineral consumption accounted for global proportion in 2018<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/095cf77cf2d2bfb4cd658c3b914490d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wang Anjian, Gao Xinrui. Outlook for China's energy and important mineral resources demand [J]. Proceedings of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2020, 35 (03): 338-344.Secondly, after years of reform, the flexibility of RMB exchange rate has been greatly enhanced at present, which can fully reflect all kinds of economic information.In the process of this round of rising commodity prices, the appreciation of exchange rate has actually played a hedging role in rising commodity prices that rely on external imports. (Figure 9).Figure 9: Trends of South China Commodity Composite Index and RMB Exchange Rate Index<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12aa64af51e8b77972eb748a495ffc48\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, during this round of economic recovery, CPI and PPI have obviously diverged. Only PPI is rising rapidly, and the GDP deflator, which can better reflect price changes, has not risen significantly.Even though China's economy has continued to recover for four quarters, the actual inflationary pressure it faces is not great.This divergence is not a new phenomenon. After 2016, there has been a continuous divergence between PPI and CPI. This at least shows that,In the past five years, there has been no effective evidence that PPI can be transmitted to CPI, and the price transmission mechanism from the production side to the consumer side is not smooth.To sum up, China does not have the basis for imported inflation, so there is no need to worry about the so-called imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rise in commodity prices.As shown in Figure 6 above, the current price increase of domestic commodities is the most prominent price increase of ferrous metals, followed by non-ferrous metals. Among the year-on-year growth rates of PPI by industry in March 2021, the ferrous metal mining and dressing industry ranked the highest in the industry with a growth rate of 34.7%, and the ferrous metal processing industry also ranked at the forefront with a growth rate of 21.5%; The high PPI growth rates of non-ferrous metal processing (21.3%) and non-ferrous metal mining (13.3%) also confirm the rise in non-ferrous metal prices. Combined with the data in Figure 8, among ferrous metals, China's demand for chromium accounts for more than 60% of the world, and its demand for manganese and iron is close to 50%; Among non-ferrous metals, my country's demand for tungsten accounts for nearly 80% of the world, and its demand for aluminum and copper also exceeds 50%.Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices.Inflation is a total issue, and the expression of inflation implies the meaning of economic overheating, which will constrain monetary policy. The macro data of the past two months shows that my country's economy is still in the recovery channel, and the core CPI has just broken away from the continuous downward trend. Although many service industries continue to recover, they are still a certain distance from normal. It is too early to discuss inflationary pressure at this time.To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits.After 2016, the proportion of upstream industries in the profits of industrial enterprises increased significantly, and declined slightly in 2019, but it was still higher than the level before 2016.In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industry chain,On the one hand, we can continue to use targeted tax reduction and fee reduction measures,Improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprises, but considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, there is limited room for structural fiscal policies to play a role.On the other hand, it is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends。\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3629811\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d3216ba9e86e8387a5da72412418e73","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3629811","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1119886772","content_text":"摘要：我国不具备输入性通胀的三个条件。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。\n\n近期，部分大宗商品价格走高，带动PPI快速回正，有观点认为这是典型的输入性通胀。但综合来看，要产生输入性通胀，至少有要有三个条件：一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者；二是固定汇率制度的安排；三是国内各类工业品价格和消费品价格的通畅传导。现阶段，这三个条件在中国基本都不成立，中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险。国内经济的恢复节奏和结构特征可以解释大部分的大宗商品价格上涨——在我国对主要金属矿产需求占全球需求量如此巨大的背景下，国内需求变动才是影响价格的主因。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。为改善这一产业链利润分配失调局面，一方面，可以继续使用针对性的减税降费措施，改善下游、中小企业的现金流，但考虑到目前财政收支形势的困境，结构性的财政政策发挥作用的空间也是有限的。另一方面，依然要从总量层面扩大总需求，在经济还未恢复到疫情正常水平时，应坚定不移的使用扩张性宏观管理政策，不应对大宗商品价格走势过度反应。\n——朱鹤、盛中明 中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）青年研究员\n近期，部分大宗商品价格走高，带动PPI快速回正，有观点认为这是典型的输入性通胀。梳理已有学术研究和事实可以发现，输入性通胀有其特定的作用机制，中国的现实并不完全满足其作用条件。\n目前PPI的阶段性上扬固然与大宗商品价格上涨有关，但与所谓的“输入性通胀”相差甚远，不应将其误读为“输入性通胀”，以免造成决策误判。\n1、输入性通胀的定义与机制\n\n\n\n\n\n\n1. 学术论文如何定义输入性通胀\n\n\n\n\n\n\n输入性通货膨胀，即由外部经济因素变化引起的国内物价总水平的上涨。\n国际上对输入性通胀（Imported Inflation）的研究始于20世纪70年代的石油危机期间，Cagan（1980）在对1971-1974 年美国通货膨胀的研究中，将国内物价上涨主要归因于外部冲击，提出这种外部传导的通货膨胀无法有效地通过国内的货币政策进行控制。Kolodko（1987）将输入型通胀定义为一种“由超过供给的有效需求的异常流入或不断增加的进口成本引起的”物价上涨趋势。\n但从最近半个世纪两次国际大宗商品持续大幅涨价的历史来看，输入性通胀对似乎不能很好地解释同时期内各国的通胀差异。\n弗里德曼（1979）曾比较了石油危机期间美国、日本、德国和英国的通胀水平，发现各国的通胀水平并不都随油价的上涨而同步变化，输入性通胀难以解释各国通胀的差异。\n他指出，20世纪70年代初期，日本和英国的通胀率每年在30%以上，而美国的通胀率在10%左右，德国不到5%。在1973年石油危机之后的五年里，德国和日本的通货膨胀减慢了，德国每年的通胀率从大约7%减到不足5%，日本从30%以上减到5%；美国的通货膨胀却在之后一年达到最高峰，约12%，1976 年降到5%，然后在1979年又升到13%以上。\n他还指出，“德国和日本是100%依靠进口石油的，可是它们在降低通胀率方面，却比50%石油依靠进口的美国、或是已成为大产油国的英国做得好。”以上显著的差异并不能用石油危机的冲击来解释。\n伍戈（2011）也梳理了21世纪初到2008年国际油价上涨趋势中不同国家通胀的不同表现，发现各国通胀率基本稳定在4%-5%以内，显著低于20世纪70年代石油危机期间10%-20%以上的涨幅，通胀自身的波动性更加缓和，且其与大宗商品价格的联动性似乎也在减弱。在国际大宗商品价格冲击下，德国、日本这类石油依存度高的国家通胀率保持在较低水平；而美国石油依存度相对较低，但通胀率反而较高。作为产油大国，英国的通胀率却是这四国中最高的。\n这些基本事实表明，用输入型通胀或外部成本冲击不能很好解释各国在通胀方面的差异表现。\n2. 输入性通胀的传导机制\n现有学术研究一般将外部因素对国内物价水平的影响途径分为三类，然后构建计量模型对相应传导机制进行验证。\n这些计量模型大多使用国际商品价格、其他国家的货币供应量等指标反映外部因素，作为解释变量，将国内CPI、PPI的变动作为被解释变量，然后使用不同模型验证外部因素对国内物价水平是否有显著影响，以及解释力度如何。\n我们发现，已有的学术研究的研究结论存在比较明显的差异。\n2.1 成本推动机制下的输入性通胀\n传导机制：进口商品价格上升推高了国内基础产品的成本，在没有超额需求的条件下，成本提高会引起价格水平的普遍上涨，带来成本推动型的通胀。\n当前对输入性通胀的讨论主要都是基于这个逻辑。但是，上述机制要发挥作用，至少要满足三个必要条件：\n一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者，国内的供需状态基本无法对国际商品价格产生影响，且本国的汇率升值不能抵消进口价格的上涨。\n如若不然，“输入性”也就无从谈起。这也是为什么这一机制在“小国开放经济”模型中会有显著作用。\n二是国外进口原材料的成本在国内生产成本中占主要部分，其价格变动会显著影响国内产成品的价格。\n艾进等（2015）根据物价水平受劳动力、原材料、土地三大要素价格影响的模型计算，发现CPI 对三大要素价格的平均反应弹性分别为0.16、0.08 和0.02，由此计算出2009年8月至2010年9月劳动力、原材料、土地价格从成本角度对CPI 的贡献比例分别为74%、17%和9%。可见在成本因素中，劳动力成本占据绝对主导地位。\nLe Blanc等（2014）也曾指出，20世纪70年代石油危机带来的油价上涨对美、日、法等发达国家的通货膨胀造成了很大影响，但2000年之后，油价对这些国家通胀的影响变得十分有限。\nBernank等(2004) 也发现，进入21世纪以后大宗商品价格对CPI影响较小，他们总结的原因在于原材料占总成本比重变小，且部分成本已经被生产商或经销商利润所吸收。\n三是PPI对CPI有通畅的传导效应。王京晶（2011）在对输入性通胀进行研究时发现，国际金融衍生品价格、进口价格主要改变生产厂商的生产要素价格, 最终表现为PPI的变动。但是，由于PPI与CPI之间传导不通畅，输入型通胀因素对CPI波动的影响程度被大大削弱。\n2.2 贸易机制下的输入性通胀\n传导逻辑：当国外出现通货膨胀、价格上涨时，会刺激出口商更多向外国出口商品，同时抑制本国居民对国外进口商品的消费，而转为增加对本国商品的消费，最终带来国内总需求增加，引发国内通胀。上述机制如要成立，也要满足两个必要条件：\n一是固定汇率。在上述价格机制下，国外的通胀因素如果要对贸易结构产生作用，就必须要求本国的汇率固定，否则国内外价格的相对变动会体现为汇率的变化。\n二是本国出口商品的供给价格弹性和进口商品的需求价格弹性都要足够大。如果本国出口商品的供给价格弹性小，即使国外价格变动很大，国内出口也不会受到很大影响。同时，如果国内对进口商品的需求价格弹性也小，进口商品涨价不会显著影响需求量。\n2.3 稳汇率导致的输入性通胀\n传导机制：当国外出现通货膨胀和价格上涨时，会造成外币相对于本币的贬值，本币升值预期会造成大量国际资本的流入。出于维护本国汇率稳定的目的，本国央行会被动增加货币供给，进而刺激国内总需求并导致通胀。\n这种机制成立的必要条件是保持汇率稳定是央行的重要目标。换言之，在三难选择中央行实际上放弃了货币政策的独立性，选择了汇率稳定和资本自由流动。\n2011年关于输入性通胀的讨论\n当前，国际大宗商品市场存在一定的涨价趋势，部分观点将这一趋势与国内PPI的上行相关联，提出对“输入性通胀”的担忧。我们可以简单复盘上一轮关于输入性通胀的集中讨论，也就是2011年。\n如图1所示，当时CPI当月同比增速从2010年初开始持续冲高至2011年7月6.5%，PPI增速也运行在7%左右的高位。当时的经济背景是，全球正处于应对国际金融冲击后的政策大宽松时期，国际大宗商品价格飙升。北海布伦特与WTI原油收盘价均在2011年上半年突破100美元/桶，当年4月，伦敦金属交易所的铜、锡、铅、铝价格同比分别上涨21.4%、72.3%、25.7%和13.9%。芝加哥交易所的玉米、小麦、大豆、豆油价格分别上涨了96.2%、61.2%、44%和48.6%。\n图1：2009-2013年CPI与PPI月同比增速（%）走势\n\n在这样的背景下，市场和学界围绕防范输入性通货膨胀风险展开了一定讨论。\n彭森（2012）全面分析了全球的宽松货币环境、国际资金炒作大宗商品、石油生产国政治不稳定和经济恢复等因素对国内通胀的影响；并从数据表现上描述了国际商品价格通过商品、资本和信息流动渠道对国内价格的传导。\n但是，伍戈（2011）则梳理了输入型通胀的内涵及其传导机理，发现输入性通胀并不能解释历史上各国通胀的差异；并尝试用货币存量与经济总量的偏离程度解释上述通胀差异，有较好的解释效果，由此提出抑制国内通胀的首要手段依然是控制好国内货币总量。中国发展研究基金会也在2011年6月组织研讨会分析当时通胀的成因和趋势。\n简单复盘当时的宏观背景，不难发现国内的刺激政策才是造成通胀的主要原因，所谓国际大宗商品价格上涨，一定程度上是“出口转内销”的结果。\n为应对全球性金融危机, “4万亿”刺激计划逐步推进, 2009年和2010年我国M1 和M2增速均处于20%以上, M2与GDP同比增速差额和M2占GDP比重均处在当时的历史高位。同时，2009年和2010年新增信贷额分别达到9.58万亿元和7.92万亿元。\n根据当时中金公司（2011）的一项测算，2008-2010年，中国贡献了全球新增货币中的60%。[数据来源于《中国发展研究基金会研究参考》2011年第19号，其中记录了当时中金公司代表在2011年6月3日由中国发展研究基金会主办的宏观经济形势分析会上的发言，发言中对这一数据做了表述。]\n大规模资金主要以政策驱动、政府投资的形式进入实体经济, 激发了国内的投资需求和消费需求，稳定了经济增长，但也形成了阶段性的超额需求，抬升了总体价格水平。当相关基建逐渐转换为生产力、促进生产率和总供给的扩大之后，当时的通胀形势也逐渐缓和下来，到了2011年12月，CPI月同比增速开始回落至4.1%，此后又逐步降至2012年7月份的1.8%。\n从结果看，2011年恰是那一轮商品价格的高点，同时也是全球通胀水平的周期性高点。自那以后，全球大宗商品进入了持续5年的下跌周期，对抗通缩压力成为了新的主旋律。\n现阶段中国不具备输入性通胀的条件\n1. 基本事实：PPI明显强于CPI\n从CPI观察价格走势，其主导因素仍集中于食品供给端和疫后需求恢复。猪肉供给持续恢复会带动整体CPI下行，服务业复苏加快，但距离常态还有一定距离，核心CPI已经脱离底部，但持续上行速率不会太高。\n2021年1-3月，CPI累计增速为零，整体CPI的走势依然数主要受高基数和猪肉供给增强的影响。\n1-3月食品类CPI累计同比增速为0.2%，较去年同期20.3%的高增速下降了20.1个百分点。食品类消费品中，猪肉依旧是最大的扰动因素。受此前春节期间冷冻肉投放增加和生猪存栏持续恢复影响，22省市平均猪肉价格已经从2021年1月1日的48.83元/千克降至4月2日的38.9/千克，降幅20.3%。CPI中的猪肉分项在1-3月的累计降幅也达到12.5%，拉动整体CPI在低位运行。\n此外，今年1-3月份，全国未出现影响较大的极端天气，保证了鲜菜等时令性食品供给的充足，鲜菜类CPI1-3月累计同比增速4.8%，较去年同期下降了4.2个百分点。\n图2：CPI与食品分项、猪肉分项月累计同比增速走势\n\n图3：生猪供给对本轮猪价变动起到主要作用\n\n观察剔除了能源和食品影响的核心CPI走势，可见其自2018年以来一路下行的趋势。在2020年，受疫情冲击后的需求收缩影响，这一下行趋势的速率明显加快。2020年，当核心CPI当月同比增速在3月份触及1.2%后，继续一路下降到12月的0.4%。进入2021年，核心CPI当月同比增速为-0.3%，达到历史最低值。但在3月份，当月同比增速0.3%，核心CPI脱离了持续下行的趋势。这主要来源于，2月份以来，我国疫情防控基本扑灭了1月份各地的局部聚集疫情，服务性消费恢复走上了正轨。\n图4：核心CPI与服务CPI当月同比增速走势\n\n展望整体CPI走势，食品尤其是猪肉供需状态仍是不容忽视的因素。根据农业农村部相关负责人表示，按2020年的各月生猪存栏量环比平均递增2.1%的速度，预计到2021年6月份左右，生猪存栏量就会完全恢复到2017年的存栏水平。所以，整体CPI的在下一阶段下行的动力依旧显著。还要注意到服务业逐步恢复但节奏仍偏缓慢，疫后居民消费需求依然偏弱，核心CPI脱离底部后上行的速率预计仍会较低。\n市场普遍谈论的通胀压力实际上主要集中于PPI。3月份PPI同比增4.4%，环比增1.6%，为历史最高环比涨幅。我们用每个工业行业的规模以上企业2020年的营收占比作为权重，按照《上证产业链指数系列编制方案》中的上中下游划分办法，可以计算出上中下游工业行业各自的PPI当月同比增速（图5）。可以发现，整体工业品的价格上涨在数据表现主要来源于产业链上游行业的涨价。\n图5：按营收权重分解上中下游工业行业PPI当月同比增速(%)\n\n但上游工业行业的涨价也并不能一概而论，我们以2020年1月2日的价格为基期，以2021年4月23日的最新数据观察黑色、有色、原油和农产品四大类大宗商品在疫情之后的南华商品指数变动（图6）。与疫情之前相比，黑色金属涨幅最大（152%），其次是有色金属（39%），接着是农产品（19%），而原油则仍有33%的跌幅。\n图6：各类大宗商品的南华商品指数走势\n\n2. 中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险\n如前文所述，输入性通胀有三种主要作用机制（图7），当前讨论实际上基本集中在成本推动途径上。\n综合来看，要产生输入性通胀，至少有要有三个条件：一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者；二是固定汇率制度的安排；三是国内各类工业品价格和消费品价格的通畅传导。\n现阶段，这三个条件在中国基本都不成立，中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险。\n图7：输入性通胀三种主要作用机制和必要条件\n\n首先，中国是全球第二大经济体，并不是作为价格接受者的小国经济。中国对大宗商品的需求会对国际大宗商品价格产生显著影响。\n王安建和王高尚（2019）的研究表明，2018 年全球主要40 种矿产资源中，我国有30种矿产消费量居世界第一位[数据来源于《全球矿产资源战略研究工作报告》，王安建、王高尚主编。]。\n根据统计（图8），我国能源和重要矿产消费量中占全球比例超过50%的矿种有12种，超过40%的有23种。这些矿产资源中不乏煤炭、水泥灰岩、铁、锰、铜、铝、铅、锌和磷等大宗。\n图8：2018 年中国主要矿产消费量占全球比例\n数据来源：王安建,高芯蕊.中国能源与重要矿产资源需求展望[J].中国科学院院刊,2020,35(03):338-344.\n其次，经过多年的改革，目前人民币汇率的弹性大大增强，能够比较充分反映各类经济信息。本轮大宗商品价格上涨的过程中，汇率升值对依赖外部进口的大宗商品价格上涨事实上起到了对冲作用。（图9）。\n图9：南华商品综合指数与人民币汇率指数走势\n\n最后，在本轮经济复苏过程中，CPI和PPI则出现明显背离，只有PPI在快速上升，更能综合反映物价变化的GDP平减指数也没有显著上升。即使中国经济已经持续复苏了4个季度，实际面临的通胀压力也并不大。\n这种背离并不是新现象。2016年之后，PPI与CPI就一直存在持续背离。这至少说明，过去五年里，并没有看到PPI能够向CPI传导的有效证据，从生产端向消费端的价格传导机制并不顺畅。\n综上可知，中国不具备输入性通胀的基础，不必担忧所谓的输入性通胀。国内经济的恢复节奏和结构特征可以解释大部分的大宗商品价格上涨。如前文图6所示，当前国内大宗商品的价格上涨最突出是黑色金属的涨价，有色金属位于其次。而2021年3月分行业的PPI同比增速中，黑色金属的采选业以34.7%的增速位居全行业最高，黑色金属加工业21.5%的增速也位居前列；有色金属加工（21.3%）和有色金属采选（13.3%）的高PPI增速也与有色价格的上涨互相印证。而结合图8数据，在黑色金属中，我国对铬的需求量全球占比超过60%，对锰和铁的需求量则接近50%；有色金属中，我国对钨的需求量全球占比接近80%，对铝、铜的需求量也超过50%。在我国对主要金属矿产需求占全球需求量如此巨大的背景下，国内需求变动才是影响价格的主因。\n通胀是总量问题，通胀的表述隐含着经济过热的意义，这会对货币政策形成掣肘。近两个月的宏观数据表明，我国经济尚处于复苏通道中，核心CPI也刚刚脱离连续下滑的趋势，许多服务性行业虽然在持续恢复，但距离常态还有一定距离，此时讨论通胀压力为时尚早。\n应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。2016年之后，上游行业占工业企业利润的比重显著上升，2019年略有下降，但依然比2016年之前的水平更高。\n为改善这一产业链利润分配失调局面，一方面，可以继续使用针对性的减税降费措施，改善下游、中小企业的现金流，但考虑到目前财政收支形势的困境，结构性的财政政策发挥作用的空间也是有限的。另一方面，依然要从总量层面扩大总需求，在经济还未恢复到疫情正常水平时，应坚定不移的使用扩张性宏观管理政策，不应对大宗商品价格走势过度反应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":107277507,"gmtCreate":1620518953409,"gmtModify":1704344458808,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576478109556405","authorIdStr":"3576478109556405"},"htmlText":"哈哈","listText":"哈哈","text":"哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107277507","repostId":1119886772,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119886772","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620436108,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119886772?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-08 09:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Does China need to worry about imported inflation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119886772","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：我国不具备输入性通胀的三个条件。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。\n\n近","content":"Abstract: China does not have three conditions for imported inflation. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. But on the whole, there are at least three conditions to produce imported inflation: first, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage, these three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China does not have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rising commodity prices-Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it.The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industrial chain, on the one hand,We can continue to use targeted tax and fee reduction measures to improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprisesHowever, considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, the space for structural fiscal policy to play a role is also limited. On the other hand,It is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends.--Zhu He and Sheng Zhongming, young researchers at China Financial Forty Forum (CF40)Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. Combing the existing academic research and facts can find that,Imported inflation has its specific mechanism, and China's reality does not fully meet its conditions.The current phased rise in PPI is certainly related to the rise in commodity prices, but it is far from the so-called \"imported inflation\", should not be misunderstood as \"imported inflation\" to avoid misjudgment in decision-making.1. Definition and mechanism of imported inflation1. How academic papers define imported inflationImported inflation refers to the increase of the overall domestic price level caused by the change of external economic factors.International research on Imported Inflation (Imported Inflation) began during the oil crisis in 1970s. In his study of American inflation from 1971 to 1974, Cagan (1980) mainly attributed the domestic price increase to external shocks, and proposed that this externally transmitted inflation cannot be effectively controlled through domestic monetary policy. Kolodko (1987) defines imported inflation as an upward trend in prices \"caused by abnormal inflows of effective demand in excess of supply or increasing import costs\".However, judging from the history of two continuous sharp price increases of international commodities in the last half century, it seems that imported inflation pairs cannot well explain the inflation differences among countries during the same period.Friedman (1979) compared the inflation levels of the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom during the oil crisis, and found that the inflation levels of various countries did not all change synchronously with the rise of oil prices, and imported inflation was difficult to explain the differences in inflation among countries.He noted that in the early 1970s, inflation in Japan and the UK was above 30% a year, while inflation in the US was around 10% and Germany was less than 5%. In the five years after the oil crisis in 1973, inflation in Germany and Japan slowed down. The annual inflation rate in Germany decreased from about 7% to less than 5%, and that in Japan decreased from more than 30% to 5%; Inflation in the United States reached its peak in the following year, about 12%, dropped to 5% in 1976, and then rose to more than 13% in 1979.He also pointed out that \"Germany and Japan are 100% imported oil, but they have done a better job of reducing inflation than the United States, which imports 50% of oil, or Britain, which has become a big oil producer.\" These significant differences cannot be explained by the impact of the oil crisis.Wu Ge (2011) also sorted out the different manifestations of inflation in different countries in the rising trend of international oil prices from the beginning of the 21st century to 2008, and found that the inflation rate in various countries was basically stable within 4%-5%, which was significantly lower than the 10% during the oil crisis in the 1970s. With an increase of more than 20%, the volatility of inflation itself has become more moderate, and its linkage with commodity prices seems to be weakening. Under the impact of international commodity prices, the inflation rate of countries with high oil dependence such as Germany and Japan has remained at a low level; The U.S. oil dependence is relatively low, but the inflation rate is relatively high. As a major oil producer, Britain's inflation rate is the highest among the four countries.These basic facts show that,Imported inflation or external cost shocks cannot well explain the differences in inflation performance among countries.2. Transmission mechanism of imported inflationThe existing academic research generally divides the influence ways of external factors on domestic price level into three categories, and then constructs an econometric model to verify the corresponding transmission mechanism.Most of these econometric models use indicators such as international commodity prices and money supply of other countries to reflect external factors as explanatory variables, and take changes in domestic CPI and PPI as explained variables. Then, different models are used to verify whether external factors have a significant impact on domestic price levels and how strong the explanation is.We found that there are obvious differences in the research conclusions of the existing academic studies.2.1 Imported inflation under the cost push mechanismTransmission mechanism: Rising prices of imported goods push up the cost of domestic basic products. In the absence of excess demand, rising costs will cause a general increase in price levels and bring about cost-driven inflation.The current discussion on imported inflation is mainly based on this logic. But,For the above mechanism to work, at least three necessary conditions must be met:First, China is the recipient of international commodity price changes, and the domestic supply and demand state basically cannot affect international commodity prices, and the appreciation of its exchange rate cannot offset the increase of import prices.Otherwise, \"input\" will be impossible to talk about. This is why this mechanism will play a significant role in the model of \"small country open economy\".Second, the cost of imported raw materials accounts for the main part of domestic production costs, and its price changes will significantly affect the price of domestic finished products.Ai Jin et al. (2015) calculated according to the model that the price level is affected by the prices of labor, raw materials and land, and found that the average response elasticity of CPI to the prices of the three factors was 0.16, 0.08 and 0.02, respectively. From August 2009 to September 2010, the contribution ratios of labor, raw materials and land prices to CPI from the perspective of cost were 74%, 17% and 9% respectively. It can be seen that among the cost factors, labor cost occupies an absolutely dominant position.Le Blanc et al. (2014) also pointed out that the rise in oil prices brought about by the oil crisis in 1970s had a great impact on inflation in developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and France. However, after 2000, the impact of oil prices on inflation in these countries became very limited.Bernank et al. (2004) also found that after entering the 21st century, commodity prices have little impact on CPI. The reason they concluded is that the proportion of raw materials in the total cost has become smaller, and part of the cost has been absorbed by the profits of manufacturers or distributors.Third, PPI has a smooth transmission effect on CPI.When Wang Jingjing (2011) studied imported inflation, he found that the price of international financial derivatives and import price mainly changed the price of production factors of manufacturers, which ultimately showed the change of PPI. However, due to the poor transmission between PPI and CPI, the influence of imported inflation factors on CPI fluctuations has been greatly weakened.2.2 Imported inflation under the trade mechanismTransmission logic: When inflation and price rises occur abroad, it will stimulate exporters to export more goods to foreign countries, and at the same time restrain domestic residents' consumption of foreign imported goods, and instead increase the consumption of domestic goods, which will ultimately bring about domestic total demand. Increased demand triggers domestic inflation.If the above mechanism is to be established, it must also meet two necessary conditions:One is a fixed exchange rate.Under the above-mentioned price mechanism, if foreign inflation factors want to have an effect on the trade structure, they must require the domestic exchange rate to be fixed, otherwise the relative changes of domestic and foreign prices will be reflected in changes in exchange rates.Second, the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities and the demand price elasticity of imported commodities should be large enough。 If the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities is small, even if foreign prices change greatly, domestic exports will not be greatly affected. At the same time, if the price elasticity of domestic demand for imported goods is also small, the price increase of imported goods will not significantly affect the demand.2.3 Imported inflation caused by stable exchange rateTransmission mechanism: When inflation and price increase occur abroad, it will cause the foreign currency to depreciate relative to the local currency, and the appreciation of the local currency is expected to cause a large inflow of international capital. For the purpose of maintaining the stability of the country's exchange rate, the country's central bank will passively increase the money supply, thereby stimulating domestic aggregate demand and leading to inflation.The necessary condition for the establishment of this mechanism is that maintaining exchange rate stability is an important goal of the central bank. In other words, in the trilemma, the central bank actually gave up the independence of monetary policy and chose exchange rate stability and free capital flow.Discussion on imported inflation in 2011At present, there is a certain price increase trend in the international commodity market. Some views associate this trend with the upward trend of domestic PPI and raise concerns about \"imported inflation\". We can simply focus on the last round of concentrated discussion on imported inflation in review, that is, in 2011.As shown in Figure 1, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI continued to rise from the beginning of 2010 to 6.5% in July 2011, and the growth rate of PPI also ran at a high level of around 7%. The economic background at that time was that the world was in a period of great policy easing after responding to the international financial shock, and international commodity prices soared. The closing prices of North Sea Brent and WTI crude oil both exceeded US $100/barrel in the first half of 2011. In April of that year, the prices of copper, tin, lead and aluminum on the London Metal Exchange rose by 21.4%, 72.3%, 25.7% and 13.9% respectively year-on-year.%. The prices of corn, wheat, soybeans and soybean oil on the Chicago Exchange rose by 96.2%, 61.2%, 44% and 48.6% respectively.Figure 1: 2009-2013 CPI and PPI monthly year-on-year growth rate (%) trend<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0189eeea4f2edbd48077b454feb916b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Under this background, the market and academic circles have held some discussions on preventing the risk of imported inflation.Peng Sen (2012) comprehensively analyzed the impact of factors such as the global loose monetary environment, international capital speculation on commodities, political instability and economic recovery in oil producing countries on domestic inflation; From the data performance, it describes the transmission of international commodity prices to domestic prices through commodity, capital and information flow channels.However, Wu Ge (2011) sorted out the connotation and transmission mechanism of imported inflation, and found that imported inflation could not explain the differences in inflation among countries in history; And try to explain the above inflation difference with the deviation between the money stock and the economic aggregate, which has a good explanatory effect. Therefore, it is proposed that the primary means to curb domestic inflation is still to control the domestic money aggregate. China Development Research Foundation also organized a seminar in June 2011 to analyze the causes and trends of inflation at that time.Simply review's macro background at that time, it is not difficult to findDomestic stimulus policies are the main cause of inflation. The so-called rise in international commodity prices is, to a certain extent, the result of \"export to domestic sales\".In response to the global financial crisis, the \"4 trillion\" stimulus plan was gradually promoted. In 2009 and 2010, my country's M1 and M2 growth rates were both above 20%. The difference between the year-on-year growth rates of M2 and GDP and the proportion of M2 to GDP were both at that time. historical highs. At the same time, the amount of new credit in 2009 and 2010 reached 9.58 trillion yuan and 7.92 trillion yuan respectively.According to a calculation by CICC (2011) at that time, from 2008 to 2010, China contributed 60% of the world's new currency. [The data comes from \"China Development Research Foundation Research Reference\" No. 19, 2011, which recorded the speech made by the representative of CICC at the macroeconomic situation analysis meeting hosted by China Development Research Foundation on June 3, 2011, in which this data was stated.]Large-scale funds mainly enter the real economy in the form of policy-driven and government investment, which stimulates domestic investment demand and consumer demand and stabilizes economic growth, but also forms periodic excess demand and raises the overall price level. When related infrastructure was gradually converted into productivity, promoting the expansion of productivity and total supply, the inflation situation at that time gradually eased. By December 2011, the monthly CPI growth rate began to fall back to 4.1%, and then gradually dropped to 1.8% in July 2012.As a result, 2011 was the high point of that round of commodity prices, and it was also the cyclical high point of global inflation. Since then, global commodities have entered a five-year downward cycle, and fighting deflationary pressures has become the new main theme.China does not have the conditions for imported inflation at this stage1. Basic fact: PPI is significantly stronger than CPIObserving the price trend from CPI, the dominant factors are still concentrated on the food supply side and the recovery of post-epidemic demand.The continued recovery of pork supply will drive the overall CPI down, and the recovery of the service industry will accelerate, but there is still a certain distance from normal. The core CPI has left the bottom, but the continued upward rate will not be too high.From January to March 2021, the cumulative growth rate of CPI was zero, and the overall CPI trend was still mainly affected by the high base and increased pork supply.The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of food CPI from January to March was 0.2%, which was 20.1 percentage points lower than the high growth rate of 20.3% in the same period last year. Among food consumer goods, pork is still the biggest disturbance factor. Affected by the increase in frozen meat delivery during the Spring Festival and the continuous recovery of live pigs, the average pork price in 22 provinces and cities has dropped from 48.83 yuan/kg on January 1, 2021 to 38.9/kg on April 2, a decrease of 20.3%. The cumulative decline of the pork sub-item in the CPI from January to March also reached 12.5%, driving the overall CPI to run at a low level.In addition, from January to March this year, there was no extreme weather with great impact in the country, which ensured the sufficient supply of seasonal foods such as fresh vegetables. The cumulative growth rate of fresh vegetables CPI from January to March was 4.8% year-on-year, down 4.2 percentage points from the same period last year. percentage points.Figure 2: Monthly cumulative year-on-year growth trend of CPI, food sub-items, and pork sub-items<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c113e7896f0edf18eb10f5b04adb8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Figure 3: Pig supply plays a major role in this round of pig price changes<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c04dfc28112ae1a659c197c6371208\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Observing the core CPI trend excluding the impact of energy and food, it can be seen that it has been downward since 2018. In 2020, affected by the contraction of demand after the impact of the epidemic, the rate of this downward trend has accelerated significantly.In 2020, when the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI hit 1.2% in March, it continued to fall all the way to 0.4% in December. Entering 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI in that month was-0.3%, reaching a historical low. However, in March, the year-on-year growth rate was 0.3%, and the core CPI broke away from the continuous downward trend. This mainly comes from the fact that since February, my country's epidemic prevention and control has basically extinguished local epidemic clusters in various places in January, and the recovery of service consumption is on the right track.Figure 4: Year-on-year growth trend of core CPI and service CPI in that month<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a3a2b093ec625ab2948977a9fbd2cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking forward to the overall CPI trend, the supply and demand of food, especially pork, is still a factor that cannot be ignored.According to the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, according to the average increase rate of 2.1% month-on-month in the number of live pigs in each month of 2020, it is expected that by around June 2021, the number of live pigs will fully recover to the level of 2017. Therefore, the downward momentum of the overall CPI in the next stage is still significant. It should also be noted that the service industry is gradually recovering but the pace is still slow. After the epidemic, residents' consumption demand is still weak, and the upward rate of the core CPI after it breaks away from the bottom is expected to remain low.The inflationary pressures commonly talked about in the market are actually mainly concentrated on PPI。 In March, PPI increased by 4.4% year-on-year and 1.6% month-on-month, the highest month-on-month increase in history. We use the revenue proportion of enterprises above designated size in each industrial industry in 2020 as the weight. According to the upstream, midstream and downstream division method in the \"Shanghai Stock Exchange Industry Chain Index Series Compilation Plan\", we can calculate the respective PPIs of the upstream, midstream and downstream industrial industries in that month. Year-on-year growth rate (Figure 5). It can be found that the overall price increase of industrial products mainly comes from the price increase of upstream industries in the industrial chain.Figure 5: Decomposition of PPI growth rate of upstream, midstream and downstream industrial sectors by revenue weight (%)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aab13d68f58375336de5030f918d5fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, the price increase of the upstream industrial industry cannot be generalized. We use the price on January 2, 2020 as the base period, and use the latest data on April 23, 2021 to observe the price increase of the four major categories of bulk commodities: black, nonferrous metals, crude oil and agricultural products. Changes in the South China Commodity Index after the epidemic (Figure 6). Compared with pre-pandemic, ferrous metals rose the most (152%), followed by non-ferrous metals (39%), followed by agricultural products (19%), while crude oil still suffered a 33% decline.Figure 6: South China Commodity Index Trends of Various Commodities<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a327db62ac8614240225e9e4a91ff5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. China does not need to worry about the risk of imported inflationAs mentioned earlier, there are three main mechanisms of imported inflation (Figure 7), and the current discussion actually basically focuses on the cost-driving approach.Taken together,To produce imported inflation, there are at least three conditions:First, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage,These three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China doesn't have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.Figure 7: Three main mechanisms and necessary conditions of imported inflation<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079a9dc08120e455d5ea8fcbb744ee74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">First, China is the second largest economy in the world, not a small country as a price-taker。 China's demand for commodities will have a significant impact on international commodity prices.The research of Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang (2019) shows that among the 40 major mineral resources in the world in 2018, 30 mineral consumption in China ranked first in the world [data from Global Mineral Resources Strategy Research Work Report, edited by Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang.].According to statistics (Figure 8), there are 12 kinds of minerals accounting for more than 50% of the world's energy and important mineral consumption in China, and 23 kinds account for more than 40%. These mineral resources include coal, cement limestone, iron, manganese, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and phosphorus.Figure 8: China's major mineral consumption accounted for global proportion in 2018<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/095cf77cf2d2bfb4cd658c3b914490d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wang Anjian, Gao Xinrui. Outlook for China's energy and important mineral resources demand [J]. Proceedings of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2020, 35 (03): 338-344.Secondly, after years of reform, the flexibility of RMB exchange rate has been greatly enhanced at present, which can fully reflect all kinds of economic information.In the process of this round of rising commodity prices, the appreciation of exchange rate has actually played a hedging role in rising commodity prices that rely on external imports. (Figure 9).Figure 9: Trends of South China Commodity Composite Index and RMB Exchange Rate Index<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12aa64af51e8b77972eb748a495ffc48\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, during this round of economic recovery, CPI and PPI have obviously diverged. Only PPI is rising rapidly, and the GDP deflator, which can better reflect price changes, has not risen significantly.Even though China's economy has continued to recover for four quarters, the actual inflationary pressure it faces is not great.This divergence is not a new phenomenon. After 2016, there has been a continuous divergence between PPI and CPI. This at least shows that,In the past five years, there has been no effective evidence that PPI can be transmitted to CPI, and the price transmission mechanism from the production side to the consumer side is not smooth.To sum up, China does not have the basis for imported inflation, so there is no need to worry about the so-called imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rise in commodity prices.As shown in Figure 6 above, the current price increase of domestic commodities is the most prominent price increase of ferrous metals, followed by non-ferrous metals. Among the year-on-year growth rates of PPI by industry in March 2021, the ferrous metal mining and dressing industry ranked the highest in the industry with a growth rate of 34.7%, and the ferrous metal processing industry also ranked at the forefront with a growth rate of 21.5%; The high PPI growth rates of non-ferrous metal processing (21.3%) and non-ferrous metal mining (13.3%) also confirm the rise in non-ferrous metal prices. Combined with the data in Figure 8, among ferrous metals, China's demand for chromium accounts for more than 60% of the world, and its demand for manganese and iron is close to 50%; Among non-ferrous metals, my country's demand for tungsten accounts for nearly 80% of the world, and its demand for aluminum and copper also exceeds 50%.Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices.Inflation is a total issue, and the expression of inflation implies the meaning of economic overheating, which will constrain monetary policy. The macro data of the past two months shows that my country's economy is still in the recovery channel, and the core CPI has just broken away from the continuous downward trend. Although many service industries continue to recover, they are still a certain distance from normal. It is too early to discuss inflationary pressure at this time.To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits.After 2016, the proportion of upstream industries in the profits of industrial enterprises increased significantly, and declined slightly in 2019, but it was still higher than the level before 2016.In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industry chain,On the one hand, we can continue to use targeted tax reduction and fee reduction measures,Improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprises, but considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, there is limited room for structural fiscal policies to play a role.On the other hand, it is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends。","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does China need to worry about imported inflation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoes China need to worry about imported inflation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-05-08 09:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAbstract: China does not have three conditions for imported inflation. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. But on the whole, there are at least three conditions to produce imported inflation: first, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage, these three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China does not have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rising commodity prices-Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it.The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industrial chain, on the one hand,We can continue to use targeted tax and fee reduction measures to improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprisesHowever, considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, the space for structural fiscal policy to play a role is also limited. On the other hand,It is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends.--Zhu He and Sheng Zhongming, young researchers at China Financial Forty Forum (CF40)Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. Combing the existing academic research and facts can find that,Imported inflation has its specific mechanism, and China's reality does not fully meet its conditions.The current phased rise in PPI is certainly related to the rise in commodity prices, but it is far from the so-called \"imported inflation\", should not be misunderstood as \"imported inflation\" to avoid misjudgment in decision-making.1. Definition and mechanism of imported inflation1. How academic papers define imported inflationImported inflation refers to the increase of the overall domestic price level caused by the change of external economic factors.International research on Imported Inflation (Imported Inflation) began during the oil crisis in 1970s. In his study of American inflation from 1971 to 1974, Cagan (1980) mainly attributed the domestic price increase to external shocks, and proposed that this externally transmitted inflation cannot be effectively controlled through domestic monetary policy. Kolodko (1987) defines imported inflation as an upward trend in prices \"caused by abnormal inflows of effective demand in excess of supply or increasing import costs\".However, judging from the history of two continuous sharp price increases of international commodities in the last half century, it seems that imported inflation pairs cannot well explain the inflation differences among countries during the same period.Friedman (1979) compared the inflation levels of the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom during the oil crisis, and found that the inflation levels of various countries did not all change synchronously with the rise of oil prices, and imported inflation was difficult to explain the differences in inflation among countries.He noted that in the early 1970s, inflation in Japan and the UK was above 30% a year, while inflation in the US was around 10% and Germany was less than 5%. In the five years after the oil crisis in 1973, inflation in Germany and Japan slowed down. The annual inflation rate in Germany decreased from about 7% to less than 5%, and that in Japan decreased from more than 30% to 5%; Inflation in the United States reached its peak in the following year, about 12%, dropped to 5% in 1976, and then rose to more than 13% in 1979.He also pointed out that \"Germany and Japan are 100% imported oil, but they have done a better job of reducing inflation than the United States, which imports 50% of oil, or Britain, which has become a big oil producer.\" These significant differences cannot be explained by the impact of the oil crisis.Wu Ge (2011) also sorted out the different manifestations of inflation in different countries in the rising trend of international oil prices from the beginning of the 21st century to 2008, and found that the inflation rate in various countries was basically stable within 4%-5%, which was significantly lower than the 10% during the oil crisis in the 1970s. With an increase of more than 20%, the volatility of inflation itself has become more moderate, and its linkage with commodity prices seems to be weakening. Under the impact of international commodity prices, the inflation rate of countries with high oil dependence such as Germany and Japan has remained at a low level; The U.S. oil dependence is relatively low, but the inflation rate is relatively high. As a major oil producer, Britain's inflation rate is the highest among the four countries.These basic facts show that,Imported inflation or external cost shocks cannot well explain the differences in inflation performance among countries.2. Transmission mechanism of imported inflationThe existing academic research generally divides the influence ways of external factors on domestic price level into three categories, and then constructs an econometric model to verify the corresponding transmission mechanism.Most of these econometric models use indicators such as international commodity prices and money supply of other countries to reflect external factors as explanatory variables, and take changes in domestic CPI and PPI as explained variables. Then, different models are used to verify whether external factors have a significant impact on domestic price levels and how strong the explanation is.We found that there are obvious differences in the research conclusions of the existing academic studies.2.1 Imported inflation under the cost push mechanismTransmission mechanism: Rising prices of imported goods push up the cost of domestic basic products. In the absence of excess demand, rising costs will cause a general increase in price levels and bring about cost-driven inflation.The current discussion on imported inflation is mainly based on this logic. But,For the above mechanism to work, at least three necessary conditions must be met:First, China is the recipient of international commodity price changes, and the domestic supply and demand state basically cannot affect international commodity prices, and the appreciation of its exchange rate cannot offset the increase of import prices.Otherwise, \"input\" will be impossible to talk about. This is why this mechanism will play a significant role in the model of \"small country open economy\".Second, the cost of imported raw materials accounts for the main part of domestic production costs, and its price changes will significantly affect the price of domestic finished products.Ai Jin et al. (2015) calculated according to the model that the price level is affected by the prices of labor, raw materials and land, and found that the average response elasticity of CPI to the prices of the three factors was 0.16, 0.08 and 0.02, respectively. From August 2009 to September 2010, the contribution ratios of labor, raw materials and land prices to CPI from the perspective of cost were 74%, 17% and 9% respectively. It can be seen that among the cost factors, labor cost occupies an absolutely dominant position.Le Blanc et al. (2014) also pointed out that the rise in oil prices brought about by the oil crisis in 1970s had a great impact on inflation in developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and France. However, after 2000, the impact of oil prices on inflation in these countries became very limited.Bernank et al. (2004) also found that after entering the 21st century, commodity prices have little impact on CPI. The reason they concluded is that the proportion of raw materials in the total cost has become smaller, and part of the cost has been absorbed by the profits of manufacturers or distributors.Third, PPI has a smooth transmission effect on CPI.When Wang Jingjing (2011) studied imported inflation, he found that the price of international financial derivatives and import price mainly changed the price of production factors of manufacturers, which ultimately showed the change of PPI. However, due to the poor transmission between PPI and CPI, the influence of imported inflation factors on CPI fluctuations has been greatly weakened.2.2 Imported inflation under the trade mechanismTransmission logic: When inflation and price rises occur abroad, it will stimulate exporters to export more goods to foreign countries, and at the same time restrain domestic residents' consumption of foreign imported goods, and instead increase the consumption of domestic goods, which will ultimately bring about domestic total demand. Increased demand triggers domestic inflation.If the above mechanism is to be established, it must also meet two necessary conditions:One is a fixed exchange rate.Under the above-mentioned price mechanism, if foreign inflation factors want to have an effect on the trade structure, they must require the domestic exchange rate to be fixed, otherwise the relative changes of domestic and foreign prices will be reflected in changes in exchange rates.Second, the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities and the demand price elasticity of imported commodities should be large enough。 If the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities is small, even if foreign prices change greatly, domestic exports will not be greatly affected. At the same time, if the price elasticity of domestic demand for imported goods is also small, the price increase of imported goods will not significantly affect the demand.2.3 Imported inflation caused by stable exchange rateTransmission mechanism: When inflation and price increase occur abroad, it will cause the foreign currency to depreciate relative to the local currency, and the appreciation of the local currency is expected to cause a large inflow of international capital. For the purpose of maintaining the stability of the country's exchange rate, the country's central bank will passively increase the money supply, thereby stimulating domestic aggregate demand and leading to inflation.The necessary condition for the establishment of this mechanism is that maintaining exchange rate stability is an important goal of the central bank. In other words, in the trilemma, the central bank actually gave up the independence of monetary policy and chose exchange rate stability and free capital flow.Discussion on imported inflation in 2011At present, there is a certain price increase trend in the international commodity market. Some views associate this trend with the upward trend of domestic PPI and raise concerns about \"imported inflation\". We can simply focus on the last round of concentrated discussion on imported inflation in review, that is, in 2011.As shown in Figure 1, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI continued to rise from the beginning of 2010 to 6.5% in July 2011, and the growth rate of PPI also ran at a high level of around 7%. The economic background at that time was that the world was in a period of great policy easing after responding to the international financial shock, and international commodity prices soared. The closing prices of North Sea Brent and WTI crude oil both exceeded US $100/barrel in the first half of 2011. In April of that year, the prices of copper, tin, lead and aluminum on the London Metal Exchange rose by 21.4%, 72.3%, 25.7% and 13.9% respectively year-on-year.%. The prices of corn, wheat, soybeans and soybean oil on the Chicago Exchange rose by 96.2%, 61.2%, 44% and 48.6% respectively.Figure 1: 2009-2013 CPI and PPI monthly year-on-year growth rate (%) trend<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0189eeea4f2edbd48077b454feb916b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Under this background, the market and academic circles have held some discussions on preventing the risk of imported inflation.Peng Sen (2012) comprehensively analyzed the impact of factors such as the global loose monetary environment, international capital speculation on commodities, political instability and economic recovery in oil producing countries on domestic inflation; From the data performance, it describes the transmission of international commodity prices to domestic prices through commodity, capital and information flow channels.However, Wu Ge (2011) sorted out the connotation and transmission mechanism of imported inflation, and found that imported inflation could not explain the differences in inflation among countries in history; And try to explain the above inflation difference with the deviation between the money stock and the economic aggregate, which has a good explanatory effect. Therefore, it is proposed that the primary means to curb domestic inflation is still to control the domestic money aggregate. China Development Research Foundation also organized a seminar in June 2011 to analyze the causes and trends of inflation at that time.Simply review's macro background at that time, it is not difficult to findDomestic stimulus policies are the main cause of inflation. The so-called rise in international commodity prices is, to a certain extent, the result of \"export to domestic sales\".In response to the global financial crisis, the \"4 trillion\" stimulus plan was gradually promoted. In 2009 and 2010, my country's M1 and M2 growth rates were both above 20%. The difference between the year-on-year growth rates of M2 and GDP and the proportion of M2 to GDP were both at that time. historical highs. At the same time, the amount of new credit in 2009 and 2010 reached 9.58 trillion yuan and 7.92 trillion yuan respectively.According to a calculation by CICC (2011) at that time, from 2008 to 2010, China contributed 60% of the world's new currency. [The data comes from \"China Development Research Foundation Research Reference\" No. 19, 2011, which recorded the speech made by the representative of CICC at the macroeconomic situation analysis meeting hosted by China Development Research Foundation on June 3, 2011, in which this data was stated.]Large-scale funds mainly enter the real economy in the form of policy-driven and government investment, which stimulates domestic investment demand and consumer demand and stabilizes economic growth, but also forms periodic excess demand and raises the overall price level. When related infrastructure was gradually converted into productivity, promoting the expansion of productivity and total supply, the inflation situation at that time gradually eased. By December 2011, the monthly CPI growth rate began to fall back to 4.1%, and then gradually dropped to 1.8% in July 2012.As a result, 2011 was the high point of that round of commodity prices, and it was also the cyclical high point of global inflation. Since then, global commodities have entered a five-year downward cycle, and fighting deflationary pressures has become the new main theme.China does not have the conditions for imported inflation at this stage1. Basic fact: PPI is significantly stronger than CPIObserving the price trend from CPI, the dominant factors are still concentrated on the food supply side and the recovery of post-epidemic demand.The continued recovery of pork supply will drive the overall CPI down, and the recovery of the service industry will accelerate, but there is still a certain distance from normal. The core CPI has left the bottom, but the continued upward rate will not be too high.From January to March 2021, the cumulative growth rate of CPI was zero, and the overall CPI trend was still mainly affected by the high base and increased pork supply.The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of food CPI from January to March was 0.2%, which was 20.1 percentage points lower than the high growth rate of 20.3% in the same period last year. Among food consumer goods, pork is still the biggest disturbance factor. Affected by the increase in frozen meat delivery during the Spring Festival and the continuous recovery of live pigs, the average pork price in 22 provinces and cities has dropped from 48.83 yuan/kg on January 1, 2021 to 38.9/kg on April 2, a decrease of 20.3%. The cumulative decline of the pork sub-item in the CPI from January to March also reached 12.5%, driving the overall CPI to run at a low level.In addition, from January to March this year, there was no extreme weather with great impact in the country, which ensured the sufficient supply of seasonal foods such as fresh vegetables. The cumulative growth rate of fresh vegetables CPI from January to March was 4.8% year-on-year, down 4.2 percentage points from the same period last year. percentage points.Figure 2: Monthly cumulative year-on-year growth trend of CPI, food sub-items, and pork sub-items<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c113e7896f0edf18eb10f5b04adb8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Figure 3: Pig supply plays a major role in this round of pig price changes<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c04dfc28112ae1a659c197c6371208\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Observing the core CPI trend excluding the impact of energy and food, it can be seen that it has been downward since 2018. In 2020, affected by the contraction of demand after the impact of the epidemic, the rate of this downward trend has accelerated significantly.In 2020, when the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI hit 1.2% in March, it continued to fall all the way to 0.4% in December. Entering 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI in that month was-0.3%, reaching a historical low. However, in March, the year-on-year growth rate was 0.3%, and the core CPI broke away from the continuous downward trend. This mainly comes from the fact that since February, my country's epidemic prevention and control has basically extinguished local epidemic clusters in various places in January, and the recovery of service consumption is on the right track.Figure 4: Year-on-year growth trend of core CPI and service CPI in that month<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a3a2b093ec625ab2948977a9fbd2cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking forward to the overall CPI trend, the supply and demand of food, especially pork, is still a factor that cannot be ignored.According to the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, according to the average increase rate of 2.1% month-on-month in the number of live pigs in each month of 2020, it is expected that by around June 2021, the number of live pigs will fully recover to the level of 2017. Therefore, the downward momentum of the overall CPI in the next stage is still significant. It should also be noted that the service industry is gradually recovering but the pace is still slow. After the epidemic, residents' consumption demand is still weak, and the upward rate of the core CPI after it breaks away from the bottom is expected to remain low.The inflationary pressures commonly talked about in the market are actually mainly concentrated on PPI。 In March, PPI increased by 4.4% year-on-year and 1.6% month-on-month, the highest month-on-month increase in history. We use the revenue proportion of enterprises above designated size in each industrial industry in 2020 as the weight. According to the upstream, midstream and downstream division method in the \"Shanghai Stock Exchange Industry Chain Index Series Compilation Plan\", we can calculate the respective PPIs of the upstream, midstream and downstream industrial industries in that month. Year-on-year growth rate (Figure 5). It can be found that the overall price increase of industrial products mainly comes from the price increase of upstream industries in the industrial chain.Figure 5: Decomposition of PPI growth rate of upstream, midstream and downstream industrial sectors by revenue weight (%)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aab13d68f58375336de5030f918d5fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, the price increase of the upstream industrial industry cannot be generalized. We use the price on January 2, 2020 as the base period, and use the latest data on April 23, 2021 to observe the price increase of the four major categories of bulk commodities: black, nonferrous metals, crude oil and agricultural products. Changes in the South China Commodity Index after the epidemic (Figure 6). Compared with pre-pandemic, ferrous metals rose the most (152%), followed by non-ferrous metals (39%), followed by agricultural products (19%), while crude oil still suffered a 33% decline.Figure 6: South China Commodity Index Trends of Various Commodities<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a327db62ac8614240225e9e4a91ff5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. China does not need to worry about the risk of imported inflationAs mentioned earlier, there are three main mechanisms of imported inflation (Figure 7), and the current discussion actually basically focuses on the cost-driving approach.Taken together,To produce imported inflation, there are at least three conditions:First, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage,These three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China doesn't have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.Figure 7: Three main mechanisms and necessary conditions of imported inflation<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079a9dc08120e455d5ea8fcbb744ee74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">First, China is the second largest economy in the world, not a small country as a price-taker。 China's demand for commodities will have a significant impact on international commodity prices.The research of Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang (2019) shows that among the 40 major mineral resources in the world in 2018, 30 mineral consumption in China ranked first in the world [data from Global Mineral Resources Strategy Research Work Report, edited by Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang.].According to statistics (Figure 8), there are 12 kinds of minerals accounting for more than 50% of the world's energy and important mineral consumption in China, and 23 kinds account for more than 40%. These mineral resources include coal, cement limestone, iron, manganese, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and phosphorus.Figure 8: China's major mineral consumption accounted for global proportion in 2018<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/095cf77cf2d2bfb4cd658c3b914490d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wang Anjian, Gao Xinrui. Outlook for China's energy and important mineral resources demand [J]. Proceedings of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2020, 35 (03): 338-344.Secondly, after years of reform, the flexibility of RMB exchange rate has been greatly enhanced at present, which can fully reflect all kinds of economic information.In the process of this round of rising commodity prices, the appreciation of exchange rate has actually played a hedging role in rising commodity prices that rely on external imports. (Figure 9).Figure 9: Trends of South China Commodity Composite Index and RMB Exchange Rate Index<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12aa64af51e8b77972eb748a495ffc48\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, during this round of economic recovery, CPI and PPI have obviously diverged. Only PPI is rising rapidly, and the GDP deflator, which can better reflect price changes, has not risen significantly.Even though China's economy has continued to recover for four quarters, the actual inflationary pressure it faces is not great.This divergence is not a new phenomenon. After 2016, there has been a continuous divergence between PPI and CPI. This at least shows that,In the past five years, there has been no effective evidence that PPI can be transmitted to CPI, and the price transmission mechanism from the production side to the consumer side is not smooth.To sum up, China does not have the basis for imported inflation, so there is no need to worry about the so-called imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rise in commodity prices.As shown in Figure 6 above, the current price increase of domestic commodities is the most prominent price increase of ferrous metals, followed by non-ferrous metals. Among the year-on-year growth rates of PPI by industry in March 2021, the ferrous metal mining and dressing industry ranked the highest in the industry with a growth rate of 34.7%, and the ferrous metal processing industry also ranked at the forefront with a growth rate of 21.5%; The high PPI growth rates of non-ferrous metal processing (21.3%) and non-ferrous metal mining (13.3%) also confirm the rise in non-ferrous metal prices. Combined with the data in Figure 8, among ferrous metals, China's demand for chromium accounts for more than 60% of the world, and its demand for manganese and iron is close to 50%; Among non-ferrous metals, my country's demand for tungsten accounts for nearly 80% of the world, and its demand for aluminum and copper also exceeds 50%.Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices.Inflation is a total issue, and the expression of inflation implies the meaning of economic overheating, which will constrain monetary policy. The macro data of the past two months shows that my country's economy is still in the recovery channel, and the core CPI has just broken away from the continuous downward trend. Although many service industries continue to recover, they are still a certain distance from normal. It is too early to discuss inflationary pressure at this time.To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits.After 2016, the proportion of upstream industries in the profits of industrial enterprises increased significantly, and declined slightly in 2019, but it was still higher than the level before 2016.In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industry chain,On the one hand, we can continue to use targeted tax reduction and fee reduction measures,Improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprises, but considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, there is limited room for structural fiscal policies to play a role.On the other hand, it is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends。\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3629811\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d3216ba9e86e8387a5da72412418e73","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3629811","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1119886772","content_text":"摘要：我国不具备输入性通胀的三个条件。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。\n\n近期，部分大宗商品价格走高，带动PPI快速回正，有观点认为这是典型的输入性通胀。但综合来看，要产生输入性通胀，至少有要有三个条件：一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者；二是固定汇率制度的安排；三是国内各类工业品价格和消费品价格的通畅传导。现阶段，这三个条件在中国基本都不成立，中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险。国内经济的恢复节奏和结构特征可以解释大部分的大宗商品价格上涨——在我国对主要金属矿产需求占全球需求量如此巨大的背景下，国内需求变动才是影响价格的主因。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。为改善这一产业链利润分配失调局面，一方面，可以继续使用针对性的减税降费措施，改善下游、中小企业的现金流，但考虑到目前财政收支形势的困境，结构性的财政政策发挥作用的空间也是有限的。另一方面，依然要从总量层面扩大总需求，在经济还未恢复到疫情正常水平时，应坚定不移的使用扩张性宏观管理政策，不应对大宗商品价格走势过度反应。\n——朱鹤、盛中明 中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）青年研究员\n近期，部分大宗商品价格走高，带动PPI快速回正，有观点认为这是典型的输入性通胀。梳理已有学术研究和事实可以发现，输入性通胀有其特定的作用机制，中国的现实并不完全满足其作用条件。\n目前PPI的阶段性上扬固然与大宗商品价格上涨有关，但与所谓的“输入性通胀”相差甚远，不应将其误读为“输入性通胀”，以免造成决策误判。\n1、输入性通胀的定义与机制\n\n\n\n\n\n\n1. 学术论文如何定义输入性通胀\n\n\n\n\n\n\n输入性通货膨胀，即由外部经济因素变化引起的国内物价总水平的上涨。\n国际上对输入性通胀（Imported Inflation）的研究始于20世纪70年代的石油危机期间，Cagan（1980）在对1971-1974 年美国通货膨胀的研究中，将国内物价上涨主要归因于外部冲击，提出这种外部传导的通货膨胀无法有效地通过国内的货币政策进行控制。Kolodko（1987）将输入型通胀定义为一种“由超过供给的有效需求的异常流入或不断增加的进口成本引起的”物价上涨趋势。\n但从最近半个世纪两次国际大宗商品持续大幅涨价的历史来看，输入性通胀对似乎不能很好地解释同时期内各国的通胀差异。\n弗里德曼（1979）曾比较了石油危机期间美国、日本、德国和英国的通胀水平，发现各国的通胀水平并不都随油价的上涨而同步变化，输入性通胀难以解释各国通胀的差异。\n他指出，20世纪70年代初期，日本和英国的通胀率每年在30%以上，而美国的通胀率在10%左右，德国不到5%。在1973年石油危机之后的五年里，德国和日本的通货膨胀减慢了，德国每年的通胀率从大约7%减到不足5%，日本从30%以上减到5%；美国的通货膨胀却在之后一年达到最高峰，约12%，1976 年降到5%，然后在1979年又升到13%以上。\n他还指出，“德国和日本是100%依靠进口石油的，可是它们在降低通胀率方面，却比50%石油依靠进口的美国、或是已成为大产油国的英国做得好。”以上显著的差异并不能用石油危机的冲击来解释。\n伍戈（2011）也梳理了21世纪初到2008年国际油价上涨趋势中不同国家通胀的不同表现，发现各国通胀率基本稳定在4%-5%以内，显著低于20世纪70年代石油危机期间10%-20%以上的涨幅，通胀自身的波动性更加缓和，且其与大宗商品价格的联动性似乎也在减弱。在国际大宗商品价格冲击下，德国、日本这类石油依存度高的国家通胀率保持在较低水平；而美国石油依存度相对较低，但通胀率反而较高。作为产油大国，英国的通胀率却是这四国中最高的。\n这些基本事实表明，用输入型通胀或外部成本冲击不能很好解释各国在通胀方面的差异表现。\n2. 输入性通胀的传导机制\n现有学术研究一般将外部因素对国内物价水平的影响途径分为三类，然后构建计量模型对相应传导机制进行验证。\n这些计量模型大多使用国际商品价格、其他国家的货币供应量等指标反映外部因素，作为解释变量，将国内CPI、PPI的变动作为被解释变量，然后使用不同模型验证外部因素对国内物价水平是否有显著影响，以及解释力度如何。\n我们发现，已有的学术研究的研究结论存在比较明显的差异。\n2.1 成本推动机制下的输入性通胀\n传导机制：进口商品价格上升推高了国内基础产品的成本，在没有超额需求的条件下，成本提高会引起价格水平的普遍上涨，带来成本推动型的通胀。\n当前对输入性通胀的讨论主要都是基于这个逻辑。但是，上述机制要发挥作用，至少要满足三个必要条件：\n一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者，国内的供需状态基本无法对国际商品价格产生影响，且本国的汇率升值不能抵消进口价格的上涨。\n如若不然，“输入性”也就无从谈起。这也是为什么这一机制在“小国开放经济”模型中会有显著作用。\n二是国外进口原材料的成本在国内生产成本中占主要部分，其价格变动会显著影响国内产成品的价格。\n艾进等（2015）根据物价水平受劳动力、原材料、土地三大要素价格影响的模型计算，发现CPI 对三大要素价格的平均反应弹性分别为0.16、0.08 和0.02，由此计算出2009年8月至2010年9月劳动力、原材料、土地价格从成本角度对CPI 的贡献比例分别为74%、17%和9%。可见在成本因素中，劳动力成本占据绝对主导地位。\nLe Blanc等（2014）也曾指出，20世纪70年代石油危机带来的油价上涨对美、日、法等发达国家的通货膨胀造成了很大影响，但2000年之后，油价对这些国家通胀的影响变得十分有限。\nBernank等(2004) 也发现，进入21世纪以后大宗商品价格对CPI影响较小，他们总结的原因在于原材料占总成本比重变小，且部分成本已经被生产商或经销商利润所吸收。\n三是PPI对CPI有通畅的传导效应。王京晶（2011）在对输入性通胀进行研究时发现，国际金融衍生品价格、进口价格主要改变生产厂商的生产要素价格, 最终表现为PPI的变动。但是，由于PPI与CPI之间传导不通畅，输入型通胀因素对CPI波动的影响程度被大大削弱。\n2.2 贸易机制下的输入性通胀\n传导逻辑：当国外出现通货膨胀、价格上涨时，会刺激出口商更多向外国出口商品，同时抑制本国居民对国外进口商品的消费，而转为增加对本国商品的消费，最终带来国内总需求增加，引发国内通胀。上述机制如要成立，也要满足两个必要条件：\n一是固定汇率。在上述价格机制下，国外的通胀因素如果要对贸易结构产生作用，就必须要求本国的汇率固定，否则国内外价格的相对变动会体现为汇率的变化。\n二是本国出口商品的供给价格弹性和进口商品的需求价格弹性都要足够大。如果本国出口商品的供给价格弹性小，即使国外价格变动很大，国内出口也不会受到很大影响。同时，如果国内对进口商品的需求价格弹性也小，进口商品涨价不会显著影响需求量。\n2.3 稳汇率导致的输入性通胀\n传导机制：当国外出现通货膨胀和价格上涨时，会造成外币相对于本币的贬值，本币升值预期会造成大量国际资本的流入。出于维护本国汇率稳定的目的，本国央行会被动增加货币供给，进而刺激国内总需求并导致通胀。\n这种机制成立的必要条件是保持汇率稳定是央行的重要目标。换言之，在三难选择中央行实际上放弃了货币政策的独立性，选择了汇率稳定和资本自由流动。\n2011年关于输入性通胀的讨论\n当前，国际大宗商品市场存在一定的涨价趋势，部分观点将这一趋势与国内PPI的上行相关联，提出对“输入性通胀”的担忧。我们可以简单复盘上一轮关于输入性通胀的集中讨论，也就是2011年。\n如图1所示，当时CPI当月同比增速从2010年初开始持续冲高至2011年7月6.5%，PPI增速也运行在7%左右的高位。当时的经济背景是，全球正处于应对国际金融冲击后的政策大宽松时期，国际大宗商品价格飙升。北海布伦特与WTI原油收盘价均在2011年上半年突破100美元/桶，当年4月，伦敦金属交易所的铜、锡、铅、铝价格同比分别上涨21.4%、72.3%、25.7%和13.9%。芝加哥交易所的玉米、小麦、大豆、豆油价格分别上涨了96.2%、61.2%、44%和48.6%。\n图1：2009-2013年CPI与PPI月同比增速（%）走势\n\n在这样的背景下，市场和学界围绕防范输入性通货膨胀风险展开了一定讨论。\n彭森（2012）全面分析了全球的宽松货币环境、国际资金炒作大宗商品、石油生产国政治不稳定和经济恢复等因素对国内通胀的影响；并从数据表现上描述了国际商品价格通过商品、资本和信息流动渠道对国内价格的传导。\n但是，伍戈（2011）则梳理了输入型通胀的内涵及其传导机理，发现输入性通胀并不能解释历史上各国通胀的差异；并尝试用货币存量与经济总量的偏离程度解释上述通胀差异，有较好的解释效果，由此提出抑制国内通胀的首要手段依然是控制好国内货币总量。中国发展研究基金会也在2011年6月组织研讨会分析当时通胀的成因和趋势。\n简单复盘当时的宏观背景，不难发现国内的刺激政策才是造成通胀的主要原因，所谓国际大宗商品价格上涨，一定程度上是“出口转内销”的结果。\n为应对全球性金融危机, “4万亿”刺激计划逐步推进, 2009年和2010年我国M1 和M2增速均处于20%以上, M2与GDP同比增速差额和M2占GDP比重均处在当时的历史高位。同时，2009年和2010年新增信贷额分别达到9.58万亿元和7.92万亿元。\n根据当时中金公司（2011）的一项测算，2008-2010年，中国贡献了全球新增货币中的60%。[数据来源于《中国发展研究基金会研究参考》2011年第19号，其中记录了当时中金公司代表在2011年6月3日由中国发展研究基金会主办的宏观经济形势分析会上的发言，发言中对这一数据做了表述。]\n大规模资金主要以政策驱动、政府投资的形式进入实体经济, 激发了国内的投资需求和消费需求，稳定了经济增长，但也形成了阶段性的超额需求，抬升了总体价格水平。当相关基建逐渐转换为生产力、促进生产率和总供给的扩大之后，当时的通胀形势也逐渐缓和下来，到了2011年12月，CPI月同比增速开始回落至4.1%，此后又逐步降至2012年7月份的1.8%。\n从结果看，2011年恰是那一轮商品价格的高点，同时也是全球通胀水平的周期性高点。自那以后，全球大宗商品进入了持续5年的下跌周期，对抗通缩压力成为了新的主旋律。\n现阶段中国不具备输入性通胀的条件\n1. 基本事实：PPI明显强于CPI\n从CPI观察价格走势，其主导因素仍集中于食品供给端和疫后需求恢复。猪肉供给持续恢复会带动整体CPI下行，服务业复苏加快，但距离常态还有一定距离，核心CPI已经脱离底部，但持续上行速率不会太高。\n2021年1-3月，CPI累计增速为零，整体CPI的走势依然数主要受高基数和猪肉供给增强的影响。\n1-3月食品类CPI累计同比增速为0.2%，较去年同期20.3%的高增速下降了20.1个百分点。食品类消费品中，猪肉依旧是最大的扰动因素。受此前春节期间冷冻肉投放增加和生猪存栏持续恢复影响，22省市平均猪肉价格已经从2021年1月1日的48.83元/千克降至4月2日的38.9/千克，降幅20.3%。CPI中的猪肉分项在1-3月的累计降幅也达到12.5%，拉动整体CPI在低位运行。\n此外，今年1-3月份，全国未出现影响较大的极端天气，保证了鲜菜等时令性食品供给的充足，鲜菜类CPI1-3月累计同比增速4.8%，较去年同期下降了4.2个百分点。\n图2：CPI与食品分项、猪肉分项月累计同比增速走势\n\n图3：生猪供给对本轮猪价变动起到主要作用\n\n观察剔除了能源和食品影响的核心CPI走势，可见其自2018年以来一路下行的趋势。在2020年，受疫情冲击后的需求收缩影响，这一下行趋势的速率明显加快。2020年，当核心CPI当月同比增速在3月份触及1.2%后，继续一路下降到12月的0.4%。进入2021年，核心CPI当月同比增速为-0.3%，达到历史最低值。但在3月份，当月同比增速0.3%，核心CPI脱离了持续下行的趋势。这主要来源于，2月份以来，我国疫情防控基本扑灭了1月份各地的局部聚集疫情，服务性消费恢复走上了正轨。\n图4：核心CPI与服务CPI当月同比增速走势\n\n展望整体CPI走势，食品尤其是猪肉供需状态仍是不容忽视的因素。根据农业农村部相关负责人表示，按2020年的各月生猪存栏量环比平均递增2.1%的速度，预计到2021年6月份左右，生猪存栏量就会完全恢复到2017年的存栏水平。所以，整体CPI的在下一阶段下行的动力依旧显著。还要注意到服务业逐步恢复但节奏仍偏缓慢，疫后居民消费需求依然偏弱，核心CPI脱离底部后上行的速率预计仍会较低。\n市场普遍谈论的通胀压力实际上主要集中于PPI。3月份PPI同比增4.4%，环比增1.6%，为历史最高环比涨幅。我们用每个工业行业的规模以上企业2020年的营收占比作为权重，按照《上证产业链指数系列编制方案》中的上中下游划分办法，可以计算出上中下游工业行业各自的PPI当月同比增速（图5）。可以发现，整体工业品的价格上涨在数据表现主要来源于产业链上游行业的涨价。\n图5：按营收权重分解上中下游工业行业PPI当月同比增速(%)\n\n但上游工业行业的涨价也并不能一概而论，我们以2020年1月2日的价格为基期，以2021年4月23日的最新数据观察黑色、有色、原油和农产品四大类大宗商品在疫情之后的南华商品指数变动（图6）。与疫情之前相比，黑色金属涨幅最大（152%），其次是有色金属（39%），接着是农产品（19%），而原油则仍有33%的跌幅。\n图6：各类大宗商品的南华商品指数走势\n\n2. 中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险\n如前文所述，输入性通胀有三种主要作用机制（图7），当前讨论实际上基本集中在成本推动途径上。\n综合来看，要产生输入性通胀，至少有要有三个条件：一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者；二是固定汇率制度的安排；三是国内各类工业品价格和消费品价格的通畅传导。\n现阶段，这三个条件在中国基本都不成立，中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险。\n图7：输入性通胀三种主要作用机制和必要条件\n\n首先，中国是全球第二大经济体，并不是作为价格接受者的小国经济。中国对大宗商品的需求会对国际大宗商品价格产生显著影响。\n王安建和王高尚（2019）的研究表明，2018 年全球主要40 种矿产资源中，我国有30种矿产消费量居世界第一位[数据来源于《全球矿产资源战略研究工作报告》，王安建、王高尚主编。]。\n根据统计（图8），我国能源和重要矿产消费量中占全球比例超过50%的矿种有12种，超过40%的有23种。这些矿产资源中不乏煤炭、水泥灰岩、铁、锰、铜、铝、铅、锌和磷等大宗。\n图8：2018 年中国主要矿产消费量占全球比例\n数据来源：王安建,高芯蕊.中国能源与重要矿产资源需求展望[J].中国科学院院刊,2020,35(03):338-344.\n其次，经过多年的改革，目前人民币汇率的弹性大大增强，能够比较充分反映各类经济信息。本轮大宗商品价格上涨的过程中，汇率升值对依赖外部进口的大宗商品价格上涨事实上起到了对冲作用。（图9）。\n图9：南华商品综合指数与人民币汇率指数走势\n\n最后，在本轮经济复苏过程中，CPI和PPI则出现明显背离，只有PPI在快速上升，更能综合反映物价变化的GDP平减指数也没有显著上升。即使中国经济已经持续复苏了4个季度，实际面临的通胀压力也并不大。\n这种背离并不是新现象。2016年之后，PPI与CPI就一直存在持续背离。这至少说明，过去五年里，并没有看到PPI能够向CPI传导的有效证据，从生产端向消费端的价格传导机制并不顺畅。\n综上可知，中国不具备输入性通胀的基础，不必担忧所谓的输入性通胀。国内经济的恢复节奏和结构特征可以解释大部分的大宗商品价格上涨。如前文图6所示，当前国内大宗商品的价格上涨最突出是黑色金属的涨价，有色金属位于其次。而2021年3月分行业的PPI同比增速中，黑色金属的采选业以34.7%的增速位居全行业最高，黑色金属加工业21.5%的增速也位居前列；有色金属加工（21.3%）和有色金属采选（13.3%）的高PPI增速也与有色价格的上涨互相印证。而结合图8数据，在黑色金属中，我国对铬的需求量全球占比超过60%，对锰和铁的需求量则接近50%；有色金属中，我国对钨的需求量全球占比接近80%，对铝、铜的需求量也超过50%。在我国对主要金属矿产需求占全球需求量如此巨大的背景下，国内需求变动才是影响价格的主因。\n通胀是总量问题，通胀的表述隐含着经济过热的意义，这会对货币政策形成掣肘。近两个月的宏观数据表明，我国经济尚处于复苏通道中，核心CPI也刚刚脱离连续下滑的趋势，许多服务性行业虽然在持续恢复，但距离常态还有一定距离，此时讨论通胀压力为时尚早。\n应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。2016年之后，上游行业占工业企业利润的比重显著上升，2019年略有下降，但依然比2016年之前的水平更高。\n为改善这一产业链利润分配失调局面，一方面，可以继续使用针对性的减税降费措施，改善下游、中小企业的现金流，但考虑到目前财政收支形势的困境，结构性的财政政策发挥作用的空间也是有限的。另一方面，依然要从总量层面扩大总需求，在经济还未恢复到疫情正常水平时，应坚定不移的使用扩张性宏观管理政策，不应对大宗商品价格走势过度反应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":107246105,"gmtCreate":1620517545607,"gmtModify":1704344437698,"author":{"id":"3577397803511360","authorId":"3577397803511360","name":"53570b80","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577397803511360","authorIdStr":"3577397803511360"},"htmlText":"控制國內貨幣總量 國際大宗商品通漲影響沒那麼大 輸入性通脹風險不大","listText":"控制國內貨幣總量 國際大宗商品通漲影響沒那麼大 輸入性通脹風險不大","text":"控制國內貨幣總量 國際大宗商品通漲影響沒那麼大 輸入性通脹風險不大","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107246105","repostId":1119886772,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119886772","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620436108,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119886772?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-08 09:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Does China need to worry about imported inflation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119886772","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：我国不具备输入性通胀的三个条件。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。\n\n近","content":"Abstract: China does not have three conditions for imported inflation. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. But on the whole, there are at least three conditions to produce imported inflation: first, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage, these three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China does not have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rising commodity prices-Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it.The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industrial chain, on the one hand,We can continue to use targeted tax and fee reduction measures to improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprisesHowever, considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, the space for structural fiscal policy to play a role is also limited. On the other hand,It is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends.--Zhu He and Sheng Zhongming, young researchers at China Financial Forty Forum (CF40)Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. Combing the existing academic research and facts can find that,Imported inflation has its specific mechanism, and China's reality does not fully meet its conditions.The current phased rise in PPI is certainly related to the rise in commodity prices, but it is far from the so-called \"imported inflation\", should not be misunderstood as \"imported inflation\" to avoid misjudgment in decision-making.1. Definition and mechanism of imported inflation1. How academic papers define imported inflationImported inflation refers to the increase of the overall domestic price level caused by the change of external economic factors.International research on Imported Inflation (Imported Inflation) began during the oil crisis in 1970s. In his study of American inflation from 1971 to 1974, Cagan (1980) mainly attributed the domestic price increase to external shocks, and proposed that this externally transmitted inflation cannot be effectively controlled through domestic monetary policy. Kolodko (1987) defines imported inflation as an upward trend in prices \"caused by abnormal inflows of effective demand in excess of supply or increasing import costs\".However, judging from the history of two continuous sharp price increases of international commodities in the last half century, it seems that imported inflation pairs cannot well explain the inflation differences among countries during the same period.Friedman (1979) compared the inflation levels of the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom during the oil crisis, and found that the inflation levels of various countries did not all change synchronously with the rise of oil prices, and imported inflation was difficult to explain the differences in inflation among countries.He noted that in the early 1970s, inflation in Japan and the UK was above 30% a year, while inflation in the US was around 10% and Germany was less than 5%. In the five years after the oil crisis in 1973, inflation in Germany and Japan slowed down. The annual inflation rate in Germany decreased from about 7% to less than 5%, and that in Japan decreased from more than 30% to 5%; Inflation in the United States reached its peak in the following year, about 12%, dropped to 5% in 1976, and then rose to more than 13% in 1979.He also pointed out that \"Germany and Japan are 100% imported oil, but they have done a better job of reducing inflation than the United States, which imports 50% of oil, or Britain, which has become a big oil producer.\" These significant differences cannot be explained by the impact of the oil crisis.Wu Ge (2011) also sorted out the different manifestations of inflation in different countries in the rising trend of international oil prices from the beginning of the 21st century to 2008, and found that the inflation rate in various countries was basically stable within 4%-5%, which was significantly lower than the 10% during the oil crisis in the 1970s. With an increase of more than 20%, the volatility of inflation itself has become more moderate, and its linkage with commodity prices seems to be weakening. Under the impact of international commodity prices, the inflation rate of countries with high oil dependence such as Germany and Japan has remained at a low level; The U.S. oil dependence is relatively low, but the inflation rate is relatively high. As a major oil producer, Britain's inflation rate is the highest among the four countries.These basic facts show that,Imported inflation or external cost shocks cannot well explain the differences in inflation performance among countries.2. Transmission mechanism of imported inflationThe existing academic research generally divides the influence ways of external factors on domestic price level into three categories, and then constructs an econometric model to verify the corresponding transmission mechanism.Most of these econometric models use indicators such as international commodity prices and money supply of other countries to reflect external factors as explanatory variables, and take changes in domestic CPI and PPI as explained variables. Then, different models are used to verify whether external factors have a significant impact on domestic price levels and how strong the explanation is.We found that there are obvious differences in the research conclusions of the existing academic studies.2.1 Imported inflation under the cost push mechanismTransmission mechanism: Rising prices of imported goods push up the cost of domestic basic products. In the absence of excess demand, rising costs will cause a general increase in price levels and bring about cost-driven inflation.The current discussion on imported inflation is mainly based on this logic. But,For the above mechanism to work, at least three necessary conditions must be met:First, China is the recipient of international commodity price changes, and the domestic supply and demand state basically cannot affect international commodity prices, and the appreciation of its exchange rate cannot offset the increase of import prices.Otherwise, \"input\" will be impossible to talk about. This is why this mechanism will play a significant role in the model of \"small country open economy\".Second, the cost of imported raw materials accounts for the main part of domestic production costs, and its price changes will significantly affect the price of domestic finished products.Ai Jin et al. (2015) calculated according to the model that the price level is affected by the prices of labor, raw materials and land, and found that the average response elasticity of CPI to the prices of the three factors was 0.16, 0.08 and 0.02, respectively. From August 2009 to September 2010, the contribution ratios of labor, raw materials and land prices to CPI from the perspective of cost were 74%, 17% and 9% respectively. It can be seen that among the cost factors, labor cost occupies an absolutely dominant position.Le Blanc et al. (2014) also pointed out that the rise in oil prices brought about by the oil crisis in 1970s had a great impact on inflation in developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and France. However, after 2000, the impact of oil prices on inflation in these countries became very limited.Bernank et al. (2004) also found that after entering the 21st century, commodity prices have little impact on CPI. The reason they concluded is that the proportion of raw materials in the total cost has become smaller, and part of the cost has been absorbed by the profits of manufacturers or distributors.Third, PPI has a smooth transmission effect on CPI.When Wang Jingjing (2011) studied imported inflation, he found that the price of international financial derivatives and import price mainly changed the price of production factors of manufacturers, which ultimately showed the change of PPI. However, due to the poor transmission between PPI and CPI, the influence of imported inflation factors on CPI fluctuations has been greatly weakened.2.2 Imported inflation under the trade mechanismTransmission logic: When inflation and price rises occur abroad, it will stimulate exporters to export more goods to foreign countries, and at the same time restrain domestic residents' consumption of foreign imported goods, and instead increase the consumption of domestic goods, which will ultimately bring about domestic total demand. Increased demand triggers domestic inflation.If the above mechanism is to be established, it must also meet two necessary conditions:One is a fixed exchange rate.Under the above-mentioned price mechanism, if foreign inflation factors want to have an effect on the trade structure, they must require the domestic exchange rate to be fixed, otherwise the relative changes of domestic and foreign prices will be reflected in changes in exchange rates.Second, the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities and the demand price elasticity of imported commodities should be large enough。 If the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities is small, even if foreign prices change greatly, domestic exports will not be greatly affected. At the same time, if the price elasticity of domestic demand for imported goods is also small, the price increase of imported goods will not significantly affect the demand.2.3 Imported inflation caused by stable exchange rateTransmission mechanism: When inflation and price increase occur abroad, it will cause the foreign currency to depreciate relative to the local currency, and the appreciation of the local currency is expected to cause a large inflow of international capital. For the purpose of maintaining the stability of the country's exchange rate, the country's central bank will passively increase the money supply, thereby stimulating domestic aggregate demand and leading to inflation.The necessary condition for the establishment of this mechanism is that maintaining exchange rate stability is an important goal of the central bank. In other words, in the trilemma, the central bank actually gave up the independence of monetary policy and chose exchange rate stability and free capital flow.Discussion on imported inflation in 2011At present, there is a certain price increase trend in the international commodity market. Some views associate this trend with the upward trend of domestic PPI and raise concerns about \"imported inflation\". We can simply focus on the last round of concentrated discussion on imported inflation in review, that is, in 2011.As shown in Figure 1, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI continued to rise from the beginning of 2010 to 6.5% in July 2011, and the growth rate of PPI also ran at a high level of around 7%. The economic background at that time was that the world was in a period of great policy easing after responding to the international financial shock, and international commodity prices soared. The closing prices of North Sea Brent and WTI crude oil both exceeded US $100/barrel in the first half of 2011. In April of that year, the prices of copper, tin, lead and aluminum on the London Metal Exchange rose by 21.4%, 72.3%, 25.7% and 13.9% respectively year-on-year.%. The prices of corn, wheat, soybeans and soybean oil on the Chicago Exchange rose by 96.2%, 61.2%, 44% and 48.6% respectively.Figure 1: 2009-2013 CPI and PPI monthly year-on-year growth rate (%) trend<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0189eeea4f2edbd48077b454feb916b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Under this background, the market and academic circles have held some discussions on preventing the risk of imported inflation.Peng Sen (2012) comprehensively analyzed the impact of factors such as the global loose monetary environment, international capital speculation on commodities, political instability and economic recovery in oil producing countries on domestic inflation; From the data performance, it describes the transmission of international commodity prices to domestic prices through commodity, capital and information flow channels.However, Wu Ge (2011) sorted out the connotation and transmission mechanism of imported inflation, and found that imported inflation could not explain the differences in inflation among countries in history; And try to explain the above inflation difference with the deviation between the money stock and the economic aggregate, which has a good explanatory effect. Therefore, it is proposed that the primary means to curb domestic inflation is still to control the domestic money aggregate. China Development Research Foundation also organized a seminar in June 2011 to analyze the causes and trends of inflation at that time.Simply review's macro background at that time, it is not difficult to findDomestic stimulus policies are the main cause of inflation. The so-called rise in international commodity prices is, to a certain extent, the result of \"export to domestic sales\".In response to the global financial crisis, the \"4 trillion\" stimulus plan was gradually promoted. In 2009 and 2010, my country's M1 and M2 growth rates were both above 20%. The difference between the year-on-year growth rates of M2 and GDP and the proportion of M2 to GDP were both at that time. historical highs. At the same time, the amount of new credit in 2009 and 2010 reached 9.58 trillion yuan and 7.92 trillion yuan respectively.According to a calculation by CICC (2011) at that time, from 2008 to 2010, China contributed 60% of the world's new currency. [The data comes from \"China Development Research Foundation Research Reference\" No. 19, 2011, which recorded the speech made by the representative of CICC at the macroeconomic situation analysis meeting hosted by China Development Research Foundation on June 3, 2011, in which this data was stated.]Large-scale funds mainly enter the real economy in the form of policy-driven and government investment, which stimulates domestic investment demand and consumer demand and stabilizes economic growth, but also forms periodic excess demand and raises the overall price level. When related infrastructure was gradually converted into productivity, promoting the expansion of productivity and total supply, the inflation situation at that time gradually eased. By December 2011, the monthly CPI growth rate began to fall back to 4.1%, and then gradually dropped to 1.8% in July 2012.As a result, 2011 was the high point of that round of commodity prices, and it was also the cyclical high point of global inflation. Since then, global commodities have entered a five-year downward cycle, and fighting deflationary pressures has become the new main theme.China does not have the conditions for imported inflation at this stage1. Basic fact: PPI is significantly stronger than CPIObserving the price trend from CPI, the dominant factors are still concentrated on the food supply side and the recovery of post-epidemic demand.The continued recovery of pork supply will drive the overall CPI down, and the recovery of the service industry will accelerate, but there is still a certain distance from normal. The core CPI has left the bottom, but the continued upward rate will not be too high.From January to March 2021, the cumulative growth rate of CPI was zero, and the overall CPI trend was still mainly affected by the high base and increased pork supply.The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of food CPI from January to March was 0.2%, which was 20.1 percentage points lower than the high growth rate of 20.3% in the same period last year. Among food consumer goods, pork is still the biggest disturbance factor. Affected by the increase in frozen meat delivery during the Spring Festival and the continuous recovery of live pigs, the average pork price in 22 provinces and cities has dropped from 48.83 yuan/kg on January 1, 2021 to 38.9/kg on April 2, a decrease of 20.3%. The cumulative decline of the pork sub-item in the CPI from January to March also reached 12.5%, driving the overall CPI to run at a low level.In addition, from January to March this year, there was no extreme weather with great impact in the country, which ensured the sufficient supply of seasonal foods such as fresh vegetables. The cumulative growth rate of fresh vegetables CPI from January to March was 4.8% year-on-year, down 4.2 percentage points from the same period last year. percentage points.Figure 2: Monthly cumulative year-on-year growth trend of CPI, food sub-items, and pork sub-items<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c113e7896f0edf18eb10f5b04adb8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Figure 3: Pig supply plays a major role in this round of pig price changes<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c04dfc28112ae1a659c197c6371208\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Observing the core CPI trend excluding the impact of energy and food, it can be seen that it has been downward since 2018. In 2020, affected by the contraction of demand after the impact of the epidemic, the rate of this downward trend has accelerated significantly.In 2020, when the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI hit 1.2% in March, it continued to fall all the way to 0.4% in December. Entering 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI in that month was-0.3%, reaching a historical low. However, in March, the year-on-year growth rate was 0.3%, and the core CPI broke away from the continuous downward trend. This mainly comes from the fact that since February, my country's epidemic prevention and control has basically extinguished local epidemic clusters in various places in January, and the recovery of service consumption is on the right track.Figure 4: Year-on-year growth trend of core CPI and service CPI in that month<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a3a2b093ec625ab2948977a9fbd2cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking forward to the overall CPI trend, the supply and demand of food, especially pork, is still a factor that cannot be ignored.According to the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, according to the average increase rate of 2.1% month-on-month in the number of live pigs in each month of 2020, it is expected that by around June 2021, the number of live pigs will fully recover to the level of 2017. Therefore, the downward momentum of the overall CPI in the next stage is still significant. It should also be noted that the service industry is gradually recovering but the pace is still slow. After the epidemic, residents' consumption demand is still weak, and the upward rate of the core CPI after it breaks away from the bottom is expected to remain low.The inflationary pressures commonly talked about in the market are actually mainly concentrated on PPI。 In March, PPI increased by 4.4% year-on-year and 1.6% month-on-month, the highest month-on-month increase in history. We use the revenue proportion of enterprises above designated size in each industrial industry in 2020 as the weight. According to the upstream, midstream and downstream division method in the \"Shanghai Stock Exchange Industry Chain Index Series Compilation Plan\", we can calculate the respective PPIs of the upstream, midstream and downstream industrial industries in that month. Year-on-year growth rate (Figure 5). It can be found that the overall price increase of industrial products mainly comes from the price increase of upstream industries in the industrial chain.Figure 5: Decomposition of PPI growth rate of upstream, midstream and downstream industrial sectors by revenue weight (%)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aab13d68f58375336de5030f918d5fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, the price increase of the upstream industrial industry cannot be generalized. We use the price on January 2, 2020 as the base period, and use the latest data on April 23, 2021 to observe the price increase of the four major categories of bulk commodities: black, nonferrous metals, crude oil and agricultural products. Changes in the South China Commodity Index after the epidemic (Figure 6). Compared with pre-pandemic, ferrous metals rose the most (152%), followed by non-ferrous metals (39%), followed by agricultural products (19%), while crude oil still suffered a 33% decline.Figure 6: South China Commodity Index Trends of Various Commodities<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a327db62ac8614240225e9e4a91ff5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. China does not need to worry about the risk of imported inflationAs mentioned earlier, there are three main mechanisms of imported inflation (Figure 7), and the current discussion actually basically focuses on the cost-driving approach.Taken together,To produce imported inflation, there are at least three conditions:First, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage,These three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China doesn't have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.Figure 7: Three main mechanisms and necessary conditions of imported inflation<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079a9dc08120e455d5ea8fcbb744ee74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">First, China is the second largest economy in the world, not a small country as a price-taker。 China's demand for commodities will have a significant impact on international commodity prices.The research of Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang (2019) shows that among the 40 major mineral resources in the world in 2018, 30 mineral consumption in China ranked first in the world [data from Global Mineral Resources Strategy Research Work Report, edited by Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang.].According to statistics (Figure 8), there are 12 kinds of minerals accounting for more than 50% of the world's energy and important mineral consumption in China, and 23 kinds account for more than 40%. These mineral resources include coal, cement limestone, iron, manganese, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and phosphorus.Figure 8: China's major mineral consumption accounted for global proportion in 2018<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/095cf77cf2d2bfb4cd658c3b914490d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wang Anjian, Gao Xinrui. Outlook for China's energy and important mineral resources demand [J]. Proceedings of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2020, 35 (03): 338-344.Secondly, after years of reform, the flexibility of RMB exchange rate has been greatly enhanced at present, which can fully reflect all kinds of economic information.In the process of this round of rising commodity prices, the appreciation of exchange rate has actually played a hedging role in rising commodity prices that rely on external imports. (Figure 9).Figure 9: Trends of South China Commodity Composite Index and RMB Exchange Rate Index<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12aa64af51e8b77972eb748a495ffc48\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, during this round of economic recovery, CPI and PPI have obviously diverged. Only PPI is rising rapidly, and the GDP deflator, which can better reflect price changes, has not risen significantly.Even though China's economy has continued to recover for four quarters, the actual inflationary pressure it faces is not great.This divergence is not a new phenomenon. After 2016, there has been a continuous divergence between PPI and CPI. This at least shows that,In the past five years, there has been no effective evidence that PPI can be transmitted to CPI, and the price transmission mechanism from the production side to the consumer side is not smooth.To sum up, China does not have the basis for imported inflation, so there is no need to worry about the so-called imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rise in commodity prices.As shown in Figure 6 above, the current price increase of domestic commodities is the most prominent price increase of ferrous metals, followed by non-ferrous metals. Among the year-on-year growth rates of PPI by industry in March 2021, the ferrous metal mining and dressing industry ranked the highest in the industry with a growth rate of 34.7%, and the ferrous metal processing industry also ranked at the forefront with a growth rate of 21.5%; The high PPI growth rates of non-ferrous metal processing (21.3%) and non-ferrous metal mining (13.3%) also confirm the rise in non-ferrous metal prices. Combined with the data in Figure 8, among ferrous metals, China's demand for chromium accounts for more than 60% of the world, and its demand for manganese and iron is close to 50%; Among non-ferrous metals, my country's demand for tungsten accounts for nearly 80% of the world, and its demand for aluminum and copper also exceeds 50%.Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices.Inflation is a total issue, and the expression of inflation implies the meaning of economic overheating, which will constrain monetary policy. The macro data of the past two months shows that my country's economy is still in the recovery channel, and the core CPI has just broken away from the continuous downward trend. Although many service industries continue to recover, they are still a certain distance from normal. It is too early to discuss inflationary pressure at this time.To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits.After 2016, the proportion of upstream industries in the profits of industrial enterprises increased significantly, and declined slightly in 2019, but it was still higher than the level before 2016.In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industry chain,On the one hand, we can continue to use targeted tax reduction and fee reduction measures,Improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprises, but considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, there is limited room for structural fiscal policies to play a role.On the other hand, it is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends。","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does China need to worry about imported inflation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoes China need to worry about imported inflation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-05-08 09:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAbstract: China does not have three conditions for imported inflation. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. But on the whole, there are at least three conditions to produce imported inflation: first, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage, these three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China does not have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rising commodity prices-Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it.The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industrial chain, on the one hand,We can continue to use targeted tax and fee reduction measures to improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprisesHowever, considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, the space for structural fiscal policy to play a role is also limited. On the other hand,It is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends.--Zhu He and Sheng Zhongming, young researchers at China Financial Forty Forum (CF40)Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. Combing the existing academic research and facts can find that,Imported inflation has its specific mechanism, and China's reality does not fully meet its conditions.The current phased rise in PPI is certainly related to the rise in commodity prices, but it is far from the so-called \"imported inflation\", should not be misunderstood as \"imported inflation\" to avoid misjudgment in decision-making.1. Definition and mechanism of imported inflation1. How academic papers define imported inflationImported inflation refers to the increase of the overall domestic price level caused by the change of external economic factors.International research on Imported Inflation (Imported Inflation) began during the oil crisis in 1970s. In his study of American inflation from 1971 to 1974, Cagan (1980) mainly attributed the domestic price increase to external shocks, and proposed that this externally transmitted inflation cannot be effectively controlled through domestic monetary policy. Kolodko (1987) defines imported inflation as an upward trend in prices \"caused by abnormal inflows of effective demand in excess of supply or increasing import costs\".However, judging from the history of two continuous sharp price increases of international commodities in the last half century, it seems that imported inflation pairs cannot well explain the inflation differences among countries during the same period.Friedman (1979) compared the inflation levels of the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom during the oil crisis, and found that the inflation levels of various countries did not all change synchronously with the rise of oil prices, and imported inflation was difficult to explain the differences in inflation among countries.He noted that in the early 1970s, inflation in Japan and the UK was above 30% a year, while inflation in the US was around 10% and Germany was less than 5%. In the five years after the oil crisis in 1973, inflation in Germany and Japan slowed down. The annual inflation rate in Germany decreased from about 7% to less than 5%, and that in Japan decreased from more than 30% to 5%; Inflation in the United States reached its peak in the following year, about 12%, dropped to 5% in 1976, and then rose to more than 13% in 1979.He also pointed out that \"Germany and Japan are 100% imported oil, but they have done a better job of reducing inflation than the United States, which imports 50% of oil, or Britain, which has become a big oil producer.\" These significant differences cannot be explained by the impact of the oil crisis.Wu Ge (2011) also sorted out the different manifestations of inflation in different countries in the rising trend of international oil prices from the beginning of the 21st century to 2008, and found that the inflation rate in various countries was basically stable within 4%-5%, which was significantly lower than the 10% during the oil crisis in the 1970s. With an increase of more than 20%, the volatility of inflation itself has become more moderate, and its linkage with commodity prices seems to be weakening. Under the impact of international commodity prices, the inflation rate of countries with high oil dependence such as Germany and Japan has remained at a low level; The U.S. oil dependence is relatively low, but the inflation rate is relatively high. As a major oil producer, Britain's inflation rate is the highest among the four countries.These basic facts show that,Imported inflation or external cost shocks cannot well explain the differences in inflation performance among countries.2. Transmission mechanism of imported inflationThe existing academic research generally divides the influence ways of external factors on domestic price level into three categories, and then constructs an econometric model to verify the corresponding transmission mechanism.Most of these econometric models use indicators such as international commodity prices and money supply of other countries to reflect external factors as explanatory variables, and take changes in domestic CPI and PPI as explained variables. Then, different models are used to verify whether external factors have a significant impact on domestic price levels and how strong the explanation is.We found that there are obvious differences in the research conclusions of the existing academic studies.2.1 Imported inflation under the cost push mechanismTransmission mechanism: Rising prices of imported goods push up the cost of domestic basic products. In the absence of excess demand, rising costs will cause a general increase in price levels and bring about cost-driven inflation.The current discussion on imported inflation is mainly based on this logic. But,For the above mechanism to work, at least three necessary conditions must be met:First, China is the recipient of international commodity price changes, and the domestic supply and demand state basically cannot affect international commodity prices, and the appreciation of its exchange rate cannot offset the increase of import prices.Otherwise, \"input\" will be impossible to talk about. This is why this mechanism will play a significant role in the model of \"small country open economy\".Second, the cost of imported raw materials accounts for the main part of domestic production costs, and its price changes will significantly affect the price of domestic finished products.Ai Jin et al. (2015) calculated according to the model that the price level is affected by the prices of labor, raw materials and land, and found that the average response elasticity of CPI to the prices of the three factors was 0.16, 0.08 and 0.02, respectively. From August 2009 to September 2010, the contribution ratios of labor, raw materials and land prices to CPI from the perspective of cost were 74%, 17% and 9% respectively. It can be seen that among the cost factors, labor cost occupies an absolutely dominant position.Le Blanc et al. (2014) also pointed out that the rise in oil prices brought about by the oil crisis in 1970s had a great impact on inflation in developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and France. However, after 2000, the impact of oil prices on inflation in these countries became very limited.Bernank et al. (2004) also found that after entering the 21st century, commodity prices have little impact on CPI. The reason they concluded is that the proportion of raw materials in the total cost has become smaller, and part of the cost has been absorbed by the profits of manufacturers or distributors.Third, PPI has a smooth transmission effect on CPI.When Wang Jingjing (2011) studied imported inflation, he found that the price of international financial derivatives and import price mainly changed the price of production factors of manufacturers, which ultimately showed the change of PPI. However, due to the poor transmission between PPI and CPI, the influence of imported inflation factors on CPI fluctuations has been greatly weakened.2.2 Imported inflation under the trade mechanismTransmission logic: When inflation and price rises occur abroad, it will stimulate exporters to export more goods to foreign countries, and at the same time restrain domestic residents' consumption of foreign imported goods, and instead increase the consumption of domestic goods, which will ultimately bring about domestic total demand. Increased demand triggers domestic inflation.If the above mechanism is to be established, it must also meet two necessary conditions:One is a fixed exchange rate.Under the above-mentioned price mechanism, if foreign inflation factors want to have an effect on the trade structure, they must require the domestic exchange rate to be fixed, otherwise the relative changes of domestic and foreign prices will be reflected in changes in exchange rates.Second, the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities and the demand price elasticity of imported commodities should be large enough。 If the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities is small, even if foreign prices change greatly, domestic exports will not be greatly affected. At the same time, if the price elasticity of domestic demand for imported goods is also small, the price increase of imported goods will not significantly affect the demand.2.3 Imported inflation caused by stable exchange rateTransmission mechanism: When inflation and price increase occur abroad, it will cause the foreign currency to depreciate relative to the local currency, and the appreciation of the local currency is expected to cause a large inflow of international capital. For the purpose of maintaining the stability of the country's exchange rate, the country's central bank will passively increase the money supply, thereby stimulating domestic aggregate demand and leading to inflation.The necessary condition for the establishment of this mechanism is that maintaining exchange rate stability is an important goal of the central bank. In other words, in the trilemma, the central bank actually gave up the independence of monetary policy and chose exchange rate stability and free capital flow.Discussion on imported inflation in 2011At present, there is a certain price increase trend in the international commodity market. Some views associate this trend with the upward trend of domestic PPI and raise concerns about \"imported inflation\". We can simply focus on the last round of concentrated discussion on imported inflation in review, that is, in 2011.As shown in Figure 1, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI continued to rise from the beginning of 2010 to 6.5% in July 2011, and the growth rate of PPI also ran at a high level of around 7%. The economic background at that time was that the world was in a period of great policy easing after responding to the international financial shock, and international commodity prices soared. The closing prices of North Sea Brent and WTI crude oil both exceeded US $100/barrel in the first half of 2011. In April of that year, the prices of copper, tin, lead and aluminum on the London Metal Exchange rose by 21.4%, 72.3%, 25.7% and 13.9% respectively year-on-year.%. The prices of corn, wheat, soybeans and soybean oil on the Chicago Exchange rose by 96.2%, 61.2%, 44% and 48.6% respectively.Figure 1: 2009-2013 CPI and PPI monthly year-on-year growth rate (%) trend<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0189eeea4f2edbd48077b454feb916b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Under this background, the market and academic circles have held some discussions on preventing the risk of imported inflation.Peng Sen (2012) comprehensively analyzed the impact of factors such as the global loose monetary environment, international capital speculation on commodities, political instability and economic recovery in oil producing countries on domestic inflation; From the data performance, it describes the transmission of international commodity prices to domestic prices through commodity, capital and information flow channels.However, Wu Ge (2011) sorted out the connotation and transmission mechanism of imported inflation, and found that imported inflation could not explain the differences in inflation among countries in history; And try to explain the above inflation difference with the deviation between the money stock and the economic aggregate, which has a good explanatory effect. Therefore, it is proposed that the primary means to curb domestic inflation is still to control the domestic money aggregate. China Development Research Foundation also organized a seminar in June 2011 to analyze the causes and trends of inflation at that time.Simply review's macro background at that time, it is not difficult to findDomestic stimulus policies are the main cause of inflation. The so-called rise in international commodity prices is, to a certain extent, the result of \"export to domestic sales\".In response to the global financial crisis, the \"4 trillion\" stimulus plan was gradually promoted. In 2009 and 2010, my country's M1 and M2 growth rates were both above 20%. The difference between the year-on-year growth rates of M2 and GDP and the proportion of M2 to GDP were both at that time. historical highs. At the same time, the amount of new credit in 2009 and 2010 reached 9.58 trillion yuan and 7.92 trillion yuan respectively.According to a calculation by CICC (2011) at that time, from 2008 to 2010, China contributed 60% of the world's new currency. [The data comes from \"China Development Research Foundation Research Reference\" No. 19, 2011, which recorded the speech made by the representative of CICC at the macroeconomic situation analysis meeting hosted by China Development Research Foundation on June 3, 2011, in which this data was stated.]Large-scale funds mainly enter the real economy in the form of policy-driven and government investment, which stimulates domestic investment demand and consumer demand and stabilizes economic growth, but also forms periodic excess demand and raises the overall price level. When related infrastructure was gradually converted into productivity, promoting the expansion of productivity and total supply, the inflation situation at that time gradually eased. By December 2011, the monthly CPI growth rate began to fall back to 4.1%, and then gradually dropped to 1.8% in July 2012.As a result, 2011 was the high point of that round of commodity prices, and it was also the cyclical high point of global inflation. Since then, global commodities have entered a five-year downward cycle, and fighting deflationary pressures has become the new main theme.China does not have the conditions for imported inflation at this stage1. Basic fact: PPI is significantly stronger than CPIObserving the price trend from CPI, the dominant factors are still concentrated on the food supply side and the recovery of post-epidemic demand.The continued recovery of pork supply will drive the overall CPI down, and the recovery of the service industry will accelerate, but there is still a certain distance from normal. The core CPI has left the bottom, but the continued upward rate will not be too high.From January to March 2021, the cumulative growth rate of CPI was zero, and the overall CPI trend was still mainly affected by the high base and increased pork supply.The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of food CPI from January to March was 0.2%, which was 20.1 percentage points lower than the high growth rate of 20.3% in the same period last year. Among food consumer goods, pork is still the biggest disturbance factor. Affected by the increase in frozen meat delivery during the Spring Festival and the continuous recovery of live pigs, the average pork price in 22 provinces and cities has dropped from 48.83 yuan/kg on January 1, 2021 to 38.9/kg on April 2, a decrease of 20.3%. The cumulative decline of the pork sub-item in the CPI from January to March also reached 12.5%, driving the overall CPI to run at a low level.In addition, from January to March this year, there was no extreme weather with great impact in the country, which ensured the sufficient supply of seasonal foods such as fresh vegetables. The cumulative growth rate of fresh vegetables CPI from January to March was 4.8% year-on-year, down 4.2 percentage points from the same period last year. percentage points.Figure 2: Monthly cumulative year-on-year growth trend of CPI, food sub-items, and pork sub-items<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c113e7896f0edf18eb10f5b04adb8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Figure 3: Pig supply plays a major role in this round of pig price changes<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c04dfc28112ae1a659c197c6371208\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Observing the core CPI trend excluding the impact of energy and food, it can be seen that it has been downward since 2018. In 2020, affected by the contraction of demand after the impact of the epidemic, the rate of this downward trend has accelerated significantly.In 2020, when the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI hit 1.2% in March, it continued to fall all the way to 0.4% in December. Entering 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI in that month was-0.3%, reaching a historical low. However, in March, the year-on-year growth rate was 0.3%, and the core CPI broke away from the continuous downward trend. This mainly comes from the fact that since February, my country's epidemic prevention and control has basically extinguished local epidemic clusters in various places in January, and the recovery of service consumption is on the right track.Figure 4: Year-on-year growth trend of core CPI and service CPI in that month<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a3a2b093ec625ab2948977a9fbd2cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking forward to the overall CPI trend, the supply and demand of food, especially pork, is still a factor that cannot be ignored.According to the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, according to the average increase rate of 2.1% month-on-month in the number of live pigs in each month of 2020, it is expected that by around June 2021, the number of live pigs will fully recover to the level of 2017. Therefore, the downward momentum of the overall CPI in the next stage is still significant. It should also be noted that the service industry is gradually recovering but the pace is still slow. After the epidemic, residents' consumption demand is still weak, and the upward rate of the core CPI after it breaks away from the bottom is expected to remain low.The inflationary pressures commonly talked about in the market are actually mainly concentrated on PPI。 In March, PPI increased by 4.4% year-on-year and 1.6% month-on-month, the highest month-on-month increase in history. We use the revenue proportion of enterprises above designated size in each industrial industry in 2020 as the weight. According to the upstream, midstream and downstream division method in the \"Shanghai Stock Exchange Industry Chain Index Series Compilation Plan\", we can calculate the respective PPIs of the upstream, midstream and downstream industrial industries in that month. Year-on-year growth rate (Figure 5). It can be found that the overall price increase of industrial products mainly comes from the price increase of upstream industries in the industrial chain.Figure 5: Decomposition of PPI growth rate of upstream, midstream and downstream industrial sectors by revenue weight (%)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aab13d68f58375336de5030f918d5fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, the price increase of the upstream industrial industry cannot be generalized. We use the price on January 2, 2020 as the base period, and use the latest data on April 23, 2021 to observe the price increase of the four major categories of bulk commodities: black, nonferrous metals, crude oil and agricultural products. Changes in the South China Commodity Index after the epidemic (Figure 6). Compared with pre-pandemic, ferrous metals rose the most (152%), followed by non-ferrous metals (39%), followed by agricultural products (19%), while crude oil still suffered a 33% decline.Figure 6: South China Commodity Index Trends of Various Commodities<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a327db62ac8614240225e9e4a91ff5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. China does not need to worry about the risk of imported inflationAs mentioned earlier, there are three main mechanisms of imported inflation (Figure 7), and the current discussion actually basically focuses on the cost-driving approach.Taken together,To produce imported inflation, there are at least three conditions:First, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage,These three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China doesn't have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.Figure 7: Three main mechanisms and necessary conditions of imported inflation<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079a9dc08120e455d5ea8fcbb744ee74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">First, China is the second largest economy in the world, not a small country as a price-taker。 China's demand for commodities will have a significant impact on international commodity prices.The research of Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang (2019) shows that among the 40 major mineral resources in the world in 2018, 30 mineral consumption in China ranked first in the world [data from Global Mineral Resources Strategy Research Work Report, edited by Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang.].According to statistics (Figure 8), there are 12 kinds of minerals accounting for more than 50% of the world's energy and important mineral consumption in China, and 23 kinds account for more than 40%. These mineral resources include coal, cement limestone, iron, manganese, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and phosphorus.Figure 8: China's major mineral consumption accounted for global proportion in 2018<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/095cf77cf2d2bfb4cd658c3b914490d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wang Anjian, Gao Xinrui. Outlook for China's energy and important mineral resources demand [J]. Proceedings of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2020, 35 (03): 338-344.Secondly, after years of reform, the flexibility of RMB exchange rate has been greatly enhanced at present, which can fully reflect all kinds of economic information.In the process of this round of rising commodity prices, the appreciation of exchange rate has actually played a hedging role in rising commodity prices that rely on external imports. (Figure 9).Figure 9: Trends of South China Commodity Composite Index and RMB Exchange Rate Index<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12aa64af51e8b77972eb748a495ffc48\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, during this round of economic recovery, CPI and PPI have obviously diverged. Only PPI is rising rapidly, and the GDP deflator, which can better reflect price changes, has not risen significantly.Even though China's economy has continued to recover for four quarters, the actual inflationary pressure it faces is not great.This divergence is not a new phenomenon. After 2016, there has been a continuous divergence between PPI and CPI. This at least shows that,In the past five years, there has been no effective evidence that PPI can be transmitted to CPI, and the price transmission mechanism from the production side to the consumer side is not smooth.To sum up, China does not have the basis for imported inflation, so there is no need to worry about the so-called imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rise in commodity prices.As shown in Figure 6 above, the current price increase of domestic commodities is the most prominent price increase of ferrous metals, followed by non-ferrous metals. Among the year-on-year growth rates of PPI by industry in March 2021, the ferrous metal mining and dressing industry ranked the highest in the industry with a growth rate of 34.7%, and the ferrous metal processing industry also ranked at the forefront with a growth rate of 21.5%; The high PPI growth rates of non-ferrous metal processing (21.3%) and non-ferrous metal mining (13.3%) also confirm the rise in non-ferrous metal prices. Combined with the data in Figure 8, among ferrous metals, China's demand for chromium accounts for more than 60% of the world, and its demand for manganese and iron is close to 50%; Among non-ferrous metals, my country's demand for tungsten accounts for nearly 80% of the world, and its demand for aluminum and copper also exceeds 50%.Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices.Inflation is a total issue, and the expression of inflation implies the meaning of economic overheating, which will constrain monetary policy. The macro data of the past two months shows that my country's economy is still in the recovery channel, and the core CPI has just broken away from the continuous downward trend. Although many service industries continue to recover, they are still a certain distance from normal. It is too early to discuss inflationary pressure at this time.To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits.After 2016, the proportion of upstream industries in the profits of industrial enterprises increased significantly, and declined slightly in 2019, but it was still higher than the level before 2016.In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industry chain,On the one hand, we can continue to use targeted tax reduction and fee reduction measures,Improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprises, but considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, there is limited room for structural fiscal policies to play a role.On the other hand, it is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends。\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3629811\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d3216ba9e86e8387a5da72412418e73","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3629811","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1119886772","content_text":"摘要：我国不具备输入性通胀的三个条件。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。\n\n近期，部分大宗商品价格走高，带动PPI快速回正，有观点认为这是典型的输入性通胀。但综合来看，要产生输入性通胀，至少有要有三个条件：一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者；二是固定汇率制度的安排；三是国内各类工业品价格和消费品价格的通畅传导。现阶段，这三个条件在中国基本都不成立，中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险。国内经济的恢复节奏和结构特征可以解释大部分的大宗商品价格上涨——在我国对主要金属矿产需求占全球需求量如此巨大的背景下，国内需求变动才是影响价格的主因。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。为改善这一产业链利润分配失调局面，一方面，可以继续使用针对性的减税降费措施，改善下游、中小企业的现金流，但考虑到目前财政收支形势的困境，结构性的财政政策发挥作用的空间也是有限的。另一方面，依然要从总量层面扩大总需求，在经济还未恢复到疫情正常水平时，应坚定不移的使用扩张性宏观管理政策，不应对大宗商品价格走势过度反应。\n——朱鹤、盛中明 中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）青年研究员\n近期，部分大宗商品价格走高，带动PPI快速回正，有观点认为这是典型的输入性通胀。梳理已有学术研究和事实可以发现，输入性通胀有其特定的作用机制，中国的现实并不完全满足其作用条件。\n目前PPI的阶段性上扬固然与大宗商品价格上涨有关，但与所谓的“输入性通胀”相差甚远，不应将其误读为“输入性通胀”，以免造成决策误判。\n1、输入性通胀的定义与机制\n\n\n\n\n\n\n1. 学术论文如何定义输入性通胀\n\n\n\n\n\n\n输入性通货膨胀，即由外部经济因素变化引起的国内物价总水平的上涨。\n国际上对输入性通胀（Imported Inflation）的研究始于20世纪70年代的石油危机期间，Cagan（1980）在对1971-1974 年美国通货膨胀的研究中，将国内物价上涨主要归因于外部冲击，提出这种外部传导的通货膨胀无法有效地通过国内的货币政策进行控制。Kolodko（1987）将输入型通胀定义为一种“由超过供给的有效需求的异常流入或不断增加的进口成本引起的”物价上涨趋势。\n但从最近半个世纪两次国际大宗商品持续大幅涨价的历史来看，输入性通胀对似乎不能很好地解释同时期内各国的通胀差异。\n弗里德曼（1979）曾比较了石油危机期间美国、日本、德国和英国的通胀水平，发现各国的通胀水平并不都随油价的上涨而同步变化，输入性通胀难以解释各国通胀的差异。\n他指出，20世纪70年代初期，日本和英国的通胀率每年在30%以上，而美国的通胀率在10%左右，德国不到5%。在1973年石油危机之后的五年里，德国和日本的通货膨胀减慢了，德国每年的通胀率从大约7%减到不足5%，日本从30%以上减到5%；美国的通货膨胀却在之后一年达到最高峰，约12%，1976 年降到5%，然后在1979年又升到13%以上。\n他还指出，“德国和日本是100%依靠进口石油的，可是它们在降低通胀率方面，却比50%石油依靠进口的美国、或是已成为大产油国的英国做得好。”以上显著的差异并不能用石油危机的冲击来解释。\n伍戈（2011）也梳理了21世纪初到2008年国际油价上涨趋势中不同国家通胀的不同表现，发现各国通胀率基本稳定在4%-5%以内，显著低于20世纪70年代石油危机期间10%-20%以上的涨幅，通胀自身的波动性更加缓和，且其与大宗商品价格的联动性似乎也在减弱。在国际大宗商品价格冲击下，德国、日本这类石油依存度高的国家通胀率保持在较低水平；而美国石油依存度相对较低，但通胀率反而较高。作为产油大国，英国的通胀率却是这四国中最高的。\n这些基本事实表明，用输入型通胀或外部成本冲击不能很好解释各国在通胀方面的差异表现。\n2. 输入性通胀的传导机制\n现有学术研究一般将外部因素对国内物价水平的影响途径分为三类，然后构建计量模型对相应传导机制进行验证。\n这些计量模型大多使用国际商品价格、其他国家的货币供应量等指标反映外部因素，作为解释变量，将国内CPI、PPI的变动作为被解释变量，然后使用不同模型验证外部因素对国内物价水平是否有显著影响，以及解释力度如何。\n我们发现，已有的学术研究的研究结论存在比较明显的差异。\n2.1 成本推动机制下的输入性通胀\n传导机制：进口商品价格上升推高了国内基础产品的成本，在没有超额需求的条件下，成本提高会引起价格水平的普遍上涨，带来成本推动型的通胀。\n当前对输入性通胀的讨论主要都是基于这个逻辑。但是，上述机制要发挥作用，至少要满足三个必要条件：\n一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者，国内的供需状态基本无法对国际商品价格产生影响，且本国的汇率升值不能抵消进口价格的上涨。\n如若不然，“输入性”也就无从谈起。这也是为什么这一机制在“小国开放经济”模型中会有显著作用。\n二是国外进口原材料的成本在国内生产成本中占主要部分，其价格变动会显著影响国内产成品的价格。\n艾进等（2015）根据物价水平受劳动力、原材料、土地三大要素价格影响的模型计算，发现CPI 对三大要素价格的平均反应弹性分别为0.16、0.08 和0.02，由此计算出2009年8月至2010年9月劳动力、原材料、土地价格从成本角度对CPI 的贡献比例分别为74%、17%和9%。可见在成本因素中，劳动力成本占据绝对主导地位。\nLe Blanc等（2014）也曾指出，20世纪70年代石油危机带来的油价上涨对美、日、法等发达国家的通货膨胀造成了很大影响，但2000年之后，油价对这些国家通胀的影响变得十分有限。\nBernank等(2004) 也发现，进入21世纪以后大宗商品价格对CPI影响较小，他们总结的原因在于原材料占总成本比重变小，且部分成本已经被生产商或经销商利润所吸收。\n三是PPI对CPI有通畅的传导效应。王京晶（2011）在对输入性通胀进行研究时发现，国际金融衍生品价格、进口价格主要改变生产厂商的生产要素价格, 最终表现为PPI的变动。但是，由于PPI与CPI之间传导不通畅，输入型通胀因素对CPI波动的影响程度被大大削弱。\n2.2 贸易机制下的输入性通胀\n传导逻辑：当国外出现通货膨胀、价格上涨时，会刺激出口商更多向外国出口商品，同时抑制本国居民对国外进口商品的消费，而转为增加对本国商品的消费，最终带来国内总需求增加，引发国内通胀。上述机制如要成立，也要满足两个必要条件：\n一是固定汇率。在上述价格机制下，国外的通胀因素如果要对贸易结构产生作用，就必须要求本国的汇率固定，否则国内外价格的相对变动会体现为汇率的变化。\n二是本国出口商品的供给价格弹性和进口商品的需求价格弹性都要足够大。如果本国出口商品的供给价格弹性小，即使国外价格变动很大，国内出口也不会受到很大影响。同时，如果国内对进口商品的需求价格弹性也小，进口商品涨价不会显著影响需求量。\n2.3 稳汇率导致的输入性通胀\n传导机制：当国外出现通货膨胀和价格上涨时，会造成外币相对于本币的贬值，本币升值预期会造成大量国际资本的流入。出于维护本国汇率稳定的目的，本国央行会被动增加货币供给，进而刺激国内总需求并导致通胀。\n这种机制成立的必要条件是保持汇率稳定是央行的重要目标。换言之，在三难选择中央行实际上放弃了货币政策的独立性，选择了汇率稳定和资本自由流动。\n2011年关于输入性通胀的讨论\n当前，国际大宗商品市场存在一定的涨价趋势，部分观点将这一趋势与国内PPI的上行相关联，提出对“输入性通胀”的担忧。我们可以简单复盘上一轮关于输入性通胀的集中讨论，也就是2011年。\n如图1所示，当时CPI当月同比增速从2010年初开始持续冲高至2011年7月6.5%，PPI增速也运行在7%左右的高位。当时的经济背景是，全球正处于应对国际金融冲击后的政策大宽松时期，国际大宗商品价格飙升。北海布伦特与WTI原油收盘价均在2011年上半年突破100美元/桶，当年4月，伦敦金属交易所的铜、锡、铅、铝价格同比分别上涨21.4%、72.3%、25.7%和13.9%。芝加哥交易所的玉米、小麦、大豆、豆油价格分别上涨了96.2%、61.2%、44%和48.6%。\n图1：2009-2013年CPI与PPI月同比增速（%）走势\n\n在这样的背景下，市场和学界围绕防范输入性通货膨胀风险展开了一定讨论。\n彭森（2012）全面分析了全球的宽松货币环境、国际资金炒作大宗商品、石油生产国政治不稳定和经济恢复等因素对国内通胀的影响；并从数据表现上描述了国际商品价格通过商品、资本和信息流动渠道对国内价格的传导。\n但是，伍戈（2011）则梳理了输入型通胀的内涵及其传导机理，发现输入性通胀并不能解释历史上各国通胀的差异；并尝试用货币存量与经济总量的偏离程度解释上述通胀差异，有较好的解释效果，由此提出抑制国内通胀的首要手段依然是控制好国内货币总量。中国发展研究基金会也在2011年6月组织研讨会分析当时通胀的成因和趋势。\n简单复盘当时的宏观背景，不难发现国内的刺激政策才是造成通胀的主要原因，所谓国际大宗商品价格上涨，一定程度上是“出口转内销”的结果。\n为应对全球性金融危机, “4万亿”刺激计划逐步推进, 2009年和2010年我国M1 和M2增速均处于20%以上, M2与GDP同比增速差额和M2占GDP比重均处在当时的历史高位。同时，2009年和2010年新增信贷额分别达到9.58万亿元和7.92万亿元。\n根据当时中金公司（2011）的一项测算，2008-2010年，中国贡献了全球新增货币中的60%。[数据来源于《中国发展研究基金会研究参考》2011年第19号，其中记录了当时中金公司代表在2011年6月3日由中国发展研究基金会主办的宏观经济形势分析会上的发言，发言中对这一数据做了表述。]\n大规模资金主要以政策驱动、政府投资的形式进入实体经济, 激发了国内的投资需求和消费需求，稳定了经济增长，但也形成了阶段性的超额需求，抬升了总体价格水平。当相关基建逐渐转换为生产力、促进生产率和总供给的扩大之后，当时的通胀形势也逐渐缓和下来，到了2011年12月，CPI月同比增速开始回落至4.1%，此后又逐步降至2012年7月份的1.8%。\n从结果看，2011年恰是那一轮商品价格的高点，同时也是全球通胀水平的周期性高点。自那以后，全球大宗商品进入了持续5年的下跌周期，对抗通缩压力成为了新的主旋律。\n现阶段中国不具备输入性通胀的条件\n1. 基本事实：PPI明显强于CPI\n从CPI观察价格走势，其主导因素仍集中于食品供给端和疫后需求恢复。猪肉供给持续恢复会带动整体CPI下行，服务业复苏加快，但距离常态还有一定距离，核心CPI已经脱离底部，但持续上行速率不会太高。\n2021年1-3月，CPI累计增速为零，整体CPI的走势依然数主要受高基数和猪肉供给增强的影响。\n1-3月食品类CPI累计同比增速为0.2%，较去年同期20.3%的高增速下降了20.1个百分点。食品类消费品中，猪肉依旧是最大的扰动因素。受此前春节期间冷冻肉投放增加和生猪存栏持续恢复影响，22省市平均猪肉价格已经从2021年1月1日的48.83元/千克降至4月2日的38.9/千克，降幅20.3%。CPI中的猪肉分项在1-3月的累计降幅也达到12.5%，拉动整体CPI在低位运行。\n此外，今年1-3月份，全国未出现影响较大的极端天气，保证了鲜菜等时令性食品供给的充足，鲜菜类CPI1-3月累计同比增速4.8%，较去年同期下降了4.2个百分点。\n图2：CPI与食品分项、猪肉分项月累计同比增速走势\n\n图3：生猪供给对本轮猪价变动起到主要作用\n\n观察剔除了能源和食品影响的核心CPI走势，可见其自2018年以来一路下行的趋势。在2020年，受疫情冲击后的需求收缩影响，这一下行趋势的速率明显加快。2020年，当核心CPI当月同比增速在3月份触及1.2%后，继续一路下降到12月的0.4%。进入2021年，核心CPI当月同比增速为-0.3%，达到历史最低值。但在3月份，当月同比增速0.3%，核心CPI脱离了持续下行的趋势。这主要来源于，2月份以来，我国疫情防控基本扑灭了1月份各地的局部聚集疫情，服务性消费恢复走上了正轨。\n图4：核心CPI与服务CPI当月同比增速走势\n\n展望整体CPI走势，食品尤其是猪肉供需状态仍是不容忽视的因素。根据农业农村部相关负责人表示，按2020年的各月生猪存栏量环比平均递增2.1%的速度，预计到2021年6月份左右，生猪存栏量就会完全恢复到2017年的存栏水平。所以，整体CPI的在下一阶段下行的动力依旧显著。还要注意到服务业逐步恢复但节奏仍偏缓慢，疫后居民消费需求依然偏弱，核心CPI脱离底部后上行的速率预计仍会较低。\n市场普遍谈论的通胀压力实际上主要集中于PPI。3月份PPI同比增4.4%，环比增1.6%，为历史最高环比涨幅。我们用每个工业行业的规模以上企业2020年的营收占比作为权重，按照《上证产业链指数系列编制方案》中的上中下游划分办法，可以计算出上中下游工业行业各自的PPI当月同比增速（图5）。可以发现，整体工业品的价格上涨在数据表现主要来源于产业链上游行业的涨价。\n图5：按营收权重分解上中下游工业行业PPI当月同比增速(%)\n\n但上游工业行业的涨价也并不能一概而论，我们以2020年1月2日的价格为基期，以2021年4月23日的最新数据观察黑色、有色、原油和农产品四大类大宗商品在疫情之后的南华商品指数变动（图6）。与疫情之前相比，黑色金属涨幅最大（152%），其次是有色金属（39%），接着是农产品（19%），而原油则仍有33%的跌幅。\n图6：各类大宗商品的南华商品指数走势\n\n2. 中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险\n如前文所述，输入性通胀有三种主要作用机制（图7），当前讨论实际上基本集中在成本推动途径上。\n综合来看，要产生输入性通胀，至少有要有三个条件：一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者；二是固定汇率制度的安排；三是国内各类工业品价格和消费品价格的通畅传导。\n现阶段，这三个条件在中国基本都不成立，中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险。\n图7：输入性通胀三种主要作用机制和必要条件\n\n首先，中国是全球第二大经济体，并不是作为价格接受者的小国经济。中国对大宗商品的需求会对国际大宗商品价格产生显著影响。\n王安建和王高尚（2019）的研究表明，2018 年全球主要40 种矿产资源中，我国有30种矿产消费量居世界第一位[数据来源于《全球矿产资源战略研究工作报告》，王安建、王高尚主编。]。\n根据统计（图8），我国能源和重要矿产消费量中占全球比例超过50%的矿种有12种，超过40%的有23种。这些矿产资源中不乏煤炭、水泥灰岩、铁、锰、铜、铝、铅、锌和磷等大宗。\n图8：2018 年中国主要矿产消费量占全球比例\n数据来源：王安建,高芯蕊.中国能源与重要矿产资源需求展望[J].中国科学院院刊,2020,35(03):338-344.\n其次，经过多年的改革，目前人民币汇率的弹性大大增强，能够比较充分反映各类经济信息。本轮大宗商品价格上涨的过程中，汇率升值对依赖外部进口的大宗商品价格上涨事实上起到了对冲作用。（图9）。\n图9：南华商品综合指数与人民币汇率指数走势\n\n最后，在本轮经济复苏过程中，CPI和PPI则出现明显背离，只有PPI在快速上升，更能综合反映物价变化的GDP平减指数也没有显著上升。即使中国经济已经持续复苏了4个季度，实际面临的通胀压力也并不大。\n这种背离并不是新现象。2016年之后，PPI与CPI就一直存在持续背离。这至少说明，过去五年里，并没有看到PPI能够向CPI传导的有效证据，从生产端向消费端的价格传导机制并不顺畅。\n综上可知，中国不具备输入性通胀的基础，不必担忧所谓的输入性通胀。国内经济的恢复节奏和结构特征可以解释大部分的大宗商品价格上涨。如前文图6所示，当前国内大宗商品的价格上涨最突出是黑色金属的涨价，有色金属位于其次。而2021年3月分行业的PPI同比增速中，黑色金属的采选业以34.7%的增速位居全行业最高，黑色金属加工业21.5%的增速也位居前列；有色金属加工（21.3%）和有色金属采选（13.3%）的高PPI增速也与有色价格的上涨互相印证。而结合图8数据，在黑色金属中，我国对铬的需求量全球占比超过60%，对锰和铁的需求量则接近50%；有色金属中，我国对钨的需求量全球占比接近80%，对铝、铜的需求量也超过50%。在我国对主要金属矿产需求占全球需求量如此巨大的背景下，国内需求变动才是影响价格的主因。\n通胀是总量问题，通胀的表述隐含着经济过热的意义，这会对货币政策形成掣肘。近两个月的宏观数据表明，我国经济尚处于复苏通道中，核心CPI也刚刚脱离连续下滑的趋势，许多服务性行业虽然在持续恢复，但距离常态还有一定距离，此时讨论通胀压力为时尚早。\n应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。2016年之后，上游行业占工业企业利润的比重显著上升，2019年略有下降，但依然比2016年之前的水平更高。\n为改善这一产业链利润分配失调局面，一方面，可以继续使用针对性的减税降费措施，改善下游、中小企业的现金流，但考虑到目前财政收支形势的困境，结构性的财政政策发挥作用的空间也是有限的。另一方面，依然要从总量层面扩大总需求，在经济还未恢复到疫情正常水平时，应坚定不移的使用扩张性宏观管理政策，不应对大宗商品价格走势过度反应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4266521,"gmtCreate":1620523369394,"gmtModify":1680787672492,"authorId":3561544476596136,"author":{"id":3561544476596136,"idStr":"3561544476596136","authorId":3561544476596136,"name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 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09:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Does China need to worry about imported inflation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119886772","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：我国不具备输入性通胀的三个条件。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。\n\n近","content":"Abstract: China does not have three conditions for imported inflation. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. But on the whole, there are at least three conditions to produce imported inflation: first, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage, these three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China does not have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rising commodity prices-Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it.The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industrial chain, on the one hand,We can continue to use targeted tax and fee reduction measures to improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprisesHowever, considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, the space for structural fiscal policy to play a role is also limited. On the other hand,It is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends.--Zhu He and Sheng Zhongming, young researchers at China Financial Forty Forum (CF40)Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. Combing the existing academic research and facts can find that,Imported inflation has its specific mechanism, and China's reality does not fully meet its conditions.The current phased rise in PPI is certainly related to the rise in commodity prices, but it is far from the so-called \"imported inflation\", should not be misunderstood as \"imported inflation\" to avoid misjudgment in decision-making.1. Definition and mechanism of imported inflation1. How academic papers define imported inflationImported inflation refers to the increase of the overall domestic price level caused by the change of external economic factors.International research on Imported Inflation (Imported Inflation) began during the oil crisis in 1970s. In his study of American inflation from 1971 to 1974, Cagan (1980) mainly attributed the domestic price increase to external shocks, and proposed that this externally transmitted inflation cannot be effectively controlled through domestic monetary policy. Kolodko (1987) defines imported inflation as an upward trend in prices \"caused by abnormal inflows of effective demand in excess of supply or increasing import costs\".However, judging from the history of two continuous sharp price increases of international commodities in the last half century, it seems that imported inflation pairs cannot well explain the inflation differences among countries during the same period.Friedman (1979) compared the inflation levels of the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom during the oil crisis, and found that the inflation levels of various countries did not all change synchronously with the rise of oil prices, and imported inflation was difficult to explain the differences in inflation among countries.He noted that in the early 1970s, inflation in Japan and the UK was above 30% a year, while inflation in the US was around 10% and Germany was less than 5%. In the five years after the oil crisis in 1973, inflation in Germany and Japan slowed down. The annual inflation rate in Germany decreased from about 7% to less than 5%, and that in Japan decreased from more than 30% to 5%; Inflation in the United States reached its peak in the following year, about 12%, dropped to 5% in 1976, and then rose to more than 13% in 1979.He also pointed out that \"Germany and Japan are 100% imported oil, but they have done a better job of reducing inflation than the United States, which imports 50% of oil, or Britain, which has become a big oil producer.\" These significant differences cannot be explained by the impact of the oil crisis.Wu Ge (2011) also sorted out the different manifestations of inflation in different countries in the rising trend of international oil prices from the beginning of the 21st century to 2008, and found that the inflation rate in various countries was basically stable within 4%-5%, which was significantly lower than the 10% during the oil crisis in the 1970s. With an increase of more than 20%, the volatility of inflation itself has become more moderate, and its linkage with commodity prices seems to be weakening. Under the impact of international commodity prices, the inflation rate of countries with high oil dependence such as Germany and Japan has remained at a low level; The U.S. oil dependence is relatively low, but the inflation rate is relatively high. As a major oil producer, Britain's inflation rate is the highest among the four countries.These basic facts show that,Imported inflation or external cost shocks cannot well explain the differences in inflation performance among countries.2. Transmission mechanism of imported inflationThe existing academic research generally divides the influence ways of external factors on domestic price level into three categories, and then constructs an econometric model to verify the corresponding transmission mechanism.Most of these econometric models use indicators such as international commodity prices and money supply of other countries to reflect external factors as explanatory variables, and take changes in domestic CPI and PPI as explained variables. Then, different models are used to verify whether external factors have a significant impact on domestic price levels and how strong the explanation is.We found that there are obvious differences in the research conclusions of the existing academic studies.2.1 Imported inflation under the cost push mechanismTransmission mechanism: Rising prices of imported goods push up the cost of domestic basic products. In the absence of excess demand, rising costs will cause a general increase in price levels and bring about cost-driven inflation.The current discussion on imported inflation is mainly based on this logic. But,For the above mechanism to work, at least three necessary conditions must be met:First, China is the recipient of international commodity price changes, and the domestic supply and demand state basically cannot affect international commodity prices, and the appreciation of its exchange rate cannot offset the increase of import prices.Otherwise, \"input\" will be impossible to talk about. This is why this mechanism will play a significant role in the model of \"small country open economy\".Second, the cost of imported raw materials accounts for the main part of domestic production costs, and its price changes will significantly affect the price of domestic finished products.Ai Jin et al. (2015) calculated according to the model that the price level is affected by the prices of labor, raw materials and land, and found that the average response elasticity of CPI to the prices of the three factors was 0.16, 0.08 and 0.02, respectively. From August 2009 to September 2010, the contribution ratios of labor, raw materials and land prices to CPI from the perspective of cost were 74%, 17% and 9% respectively. It can be seen that among the cost factors, labor cost occupies an absolutely dominant position.Le Blanc et al. (2014) also pointed out that the rise in oil prices brought about by the oil crisis in 1970s had a great impact on inflation in developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and France. However, after 2000, the impact of oil prices on inflation in these countries became very limited.Bernank et al. (2004) also found that after entering the 21st century, commodity prices have little impact on CPI. The reason they concluded is that the proportion of raw materials in the total cost has become smaller, and part of the cost has been absorbed by the profits of manufacturers or distributors.Third, PPI has a smooth transmission effect on CPI.When Wang Jingjing (2011) studied imported inflation, he found that the price of international financial derivatives and import price mainly changed the price of production factors of manufacturers, which ultimately showed the change of PPI. However, due to the poor transmission between PPI and CPI, the influence of imported inflation factors on CPI fluctuations has been greatly weakened.2.2 Imported inflation under the trade mechanismTransmission logic: When inflation and price rises occur abroad, it will stimulate exporters to export more goods to foreign countries, and at the same time restrain domestic residents' consumption of foreign imported goods, and instead increase the consumption of domestic goods, which will ultimately bring about domestic total demand. Increased demand triggers domestic inflation.If the above mechanism is to be established, it must also meet two necessary conditions:One is a fixed exchange rate.Under the above-mentioned price mechanism, if foreign inflation factors want to have an effect on the trade structure, they must require the domestic exchange rate to be fixed, otherwise the relative changes of domestic and foreign prices will be reflected in changes in exchange rates.Second, the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities and the demand price elasticity of imported commodities should be large enough。 If the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities is small, even if foreign prices change greatly, domestic exports will not be greatly affected. At the same time, if the price elasticity of domestic demand for imported goods is also small, the price increase of imported goods will not significantly affect the demand.2.3 Imported inflation caused by stable exchange rateTransmission mechanism: When inflation and price increase occur abroad, it will cause the foreign currency to depreciate relative to the local currency, and the appreciation of the local currency is expected to cause a large inflow of international capital. For the purpose of maintaining the stability of the country's exchange rate, the country's central bank will passively increase the money supply, thereby stimulating domestic aggregate demand and leading to inflation.The necessary condition for the establishment of this mechanism is that maintaining exchange rate stability is an important goal of the central bank. In other words, in the trilemma, the central bank actually gave up the independence of monetary policy and chose exchange rate stability and free capital flow.Discussion on imported inflation in 2011At present, there is a certain price increase trend in the international commodity market. Some views associate this trend with the upward trend of domestic PPI and raise concerns about \"imported inflation\". We can simply focus on the last round of concentrated discussion on imported inflation in review, that is, in 2011.As shown in Figure 1, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI continued to rise from the beginning of 2010 to 6.5% in July 2011, and the growth rate of PPI also ran at a high level of around 7%. The economic background at that time was that the world was in a period of great policy easing after responding to the international financial shock, and international commodity prices soared. The closing prices of North Sea Brent and WTI crude oil both exceeded US $100/barrel in the first half of 2011. In April of that year, the prices of copper, tin, lead and aluminum on the London Metal Exchange rose by 21.4%, 72.3%, 25.7% and 13.9% respectively year-on-year.%. The prices of corn, wheat, soybeans and soybean oil on the Chicago Exchange rose by 96.2%, 61.2%, 44% and 48.6% respectively.Figure 1: 2009-2013 CPI and PPI monthly year-on-year growth rate (%) trend<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0189eeea4f2edbd48077b454feb916b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Under this background, the market and academic circles have held some discussions on preventing the risk of imported inflation.Peng Sen (2012) comprehensively analyzed the impact of factors such as the global loose monetary environment, international capital speculation on commodities, political instability and economic recovery in oil producing countries on domestic inflation; From the data performance, it describes the transmission of international commodity prices to domestic prices through commodity, capital and information flow channels.However, Wu Ge (2011) sorted out the connotation and transmission mechanism of imported inflation, and found that imported inflation could not explain the differences in inflation among countries in history; And try to explain the above inflation difference with the deviation between the money stock and the economic aggregate, which has a good explanatory effect. Therefore, it is proposed that the primary means to curb domestic inflation is still to control the domestic money aggregate. China Development Research Foundation also organized a seminar in June 2011 to analyze the causes and trends of inflation at that time.Simply review's macro background at that time, it is not difficult to findDomestic stimulus policies are the main cause of inflation. The so-called rise in international commodity prices is, to a certain extent, the result of \"export to domestic sales\".In response to the global financial crisis, the \"4 trillion\" stimulus plan was gradually promoted. In 2009 and 2010, my country's M1 and M2 growth rates were both above 20%. The difference between the year-on-year growth rates of M2 and GDP and the proportion of M2 to GDP were both at that time. historical highs. At the same time, the amount of new credit in 2009 and 2010 reached 9.58 trillion yuan and 7.92 trillion yuan respectively.According to a calculation by CICC (2011) at that time, from 2008 to 2010, China contributed 60% of the world's new currency. [The data comes from \"China Development Research Foundation Research Reference\" No. 19, 2011, which recorded the speech made by the representative of CICC at the macroeconomic situation analysis meeting hosted by China Development Research Foundation on June 3, 2011, in which this data was stated.]Large-scale funds mainly enter the real economy in the form of policy-driven and government investment, which stimulates domestic investment demand and consumer demand and stabilizes economic growth, but also forms periodic excess demand and raises the overall price level. When related infrastructure was gradually converted into productivity, promoting the expansion of productivity and total supply, the inflation situation at that time gradually eased. By December 2011, the monthly CPI growth rate began to fall back to 4.1%, and then gradually dropped to 1.8% in July 2012.As a result, 2011 was the high point of that round of commodity prices, and it was also the cyclical high point of global inflation. Since then, global commodities have entered a five-year downward cycle, and fighting deflationary pressures has become the new main theme.China does not have the conditions for imported inflation at this stage1. Basic fact: PPI is significantly stronger than CPIObserving the price trend from CPI, the dominant factors are still concentrated on the food supply side and the recovery of post-epidemic demand.The continued recovery of pork supply will drive the overall CPI down, and the recovery of the service industry will accelerate, but there is still a certain distance from normal. The core CPI has left the bottom, but the continued upward rate will not be too high.From January to March 2021, the cumulative growth rate of CPI was zero, and the overall CPI trend was still mainly affected by the high base and increased pork supply.The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of food CPI from January to March was 0.2%, which was 20.1 percentage points lower than the high growth rate of 20.3% in the same period last year. Among food consumer goods, pork is still the biggest disturbance factor. Affected by the increase in frozen meat delivery during the Spring Festival and the continuous recovery of live pigs, the average pork price in 22 provinces and cities has dropped from 48.83 yuan/kg on January 1, 2021 to 38.9/kg on April 2, a decrease of 20.3%. The cumulative decline of the pork sub-item in the CPI from January to March also reached 12.5%, driving the overall CPI to run at a low level.In addition, from January to March this year, there was no extreme weather with great impact in the country, which ensured the sufficient supply of seasonal foods such as fresh vegetables. The cumulative growth rate of fresh vegetables CPI from January to March was 4.8% year-on-year, down 4.2 percentage points from the same period last year. percentage points.Figure 2: Monthly cumulative year-on-year growth trend of CPI, food sub-items, and pork sub-items<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c113e7896f0edf18eb10f5b04adb8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Figure 3: Pig supply plays a major role in this round of pig price changes<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c04dfc28112ae1a659c197c6371208\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Observing the core CPI trend excluding the impact of energy and food, it can be seen that it has been downward since 2018. In 2020, affected by the contraction of demand after the impact of the epidemic, the rate of this downward trend has accelerated significantly.In 2020, when the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI hit 1.2% in March, it continued to fall all the way to 0.4% in December. Entering 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI in that month was-0.3%, reaching a historical low. However, in March, the year-on-year growth rate was 0.3%, and the core CPI broke away from the continuous downward trend. This mainly comes from the fact that since February, my country's epidemic prevention and control has basically extinguished local epidemic clusters in various places in January, and the recovery of service consumption is on the right track.Figure 4: Year-on-year growth trend of core CPI and service CPI in that month<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a3a2b093ec625ab2948977a9fbd2cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking forward to the overall CPI trend, the supply and demand of food, especially pork, is still a factor that cannot be ignored.According to the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, according to the average increase rate of 2.1% month-on-month in the number of live pigs in each month of 2020, it is expected that by around June 2021, the number of live pigs will fully recover to the level of 2017. Therefore, the downward momentum of the overall CPI in the next stage is still significant. It should also be noted that the service industry is gradually recovering but the pace is still slow. After the epidemic, residents' consumption demand is still weak, and the upward rate of the core CPI after it breaks away from the bottom is expected to remain low.The inflationary pressures commonly talked about in the market are actually mainly concentrated on PPI。 In March, PPI increased by 4.4% year-on-year and 1.6% month-on-month, the highest month-on-month increase in history. We use the revenue proportion of enterprises above designated size in each industrial industry in 2020 as the weight. According to the upstream, midstream and downstream division method in the \"Shanghai Stock Exchange Industry Chain Index Series Compilation Plan\", we can calculate the respective PPIs of the upstream, midstream and downstream industrial industries in that month. Year-on-year growth rate (Figure 5). It can be found that the overall price increase of industrial products mainly comes from the price increase of upstream industries in the industrial chain.Figure 5: Decomposition of PPI growth rate of upstream, midstream and downstream industrial sectors by revenue weight (%)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aab13d68f58375336de5030f918d5fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, the price increase of the upstream industrial industry cannot be generalized. We use the price on January 2, 2020 as the base period, and use the latest data on April 23, 2021 to observe the price increase of the four major categories of bulk commodities: black, nonferrous metals, crude oil and agricultural products. Changes in the South China Commodity Index after the epidemic (Figure 6). Compared with pre-pandemic, ferrous metals rose the most (152%), followed by non-ferrous metals (39%), followed by agricultural products (19%), while crude oil still suffered a 33% decline.Figure 6: South China Commodity Index Trends of Various Commodities<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a327db62ac8614240225e9e4a91ff5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. China does not need to worry about the risk of imported inflationAs mentioned earlier, there are three main mechanisms of imported inflation (Figure 7), and the current discussion actually basically focuses on the cost-driving approach.Taken together,To produce imported inflation, there are at least three conditions:First, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage,These three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China doesn't have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.Figure 7: Three main mechanisms and necessary conditions of imported inflation<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079a9dc08120e455d5ea8fcbb744ee74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">First, China is the second largest economy in the world, not a small country as a price-taker。 China's demand for commodities will have a significant impact on international commodity prices.The research of Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang (2019) shows that among the 40 major mineral resources in the world in 2018, 30 mineral consumption in China ranked first in the world [data from Global Mineral Resources Strategy Research Work Report, edited by Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang.].According to statistics (Figure 8), there are 12 kinds of minerals accounting for more than 50% of the world's energy and important mineral consumption in China, and 23 kinds account for more than 40%. These mineral resources include coal, cement limestone, iron, manganese, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and phosphorus.Figure 8: China's major mineral consumption accounted for global proportion in 2018<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/095cf77cf2d2bfb4cd658c3b914490d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wang Anjian, Gao Xinrui. Outlook for China's energy and important mineral resources demand [J]. Proceedings of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2020, 35 (03): 338-344.Secondly, after years of reform, the flexibility of RMB exchange rate has been greatly enhanced at present, which can fully reflect all kinds of economic information.In the process of this round of rising commodity prices, the appreciation of exchange rate has actually played a hedging role in rising commodity prices that rely on external imports. (Figure 9).Figure 9: Trends of South China Commodity Composite Index and RMB Exchange Rate Index<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12aa64af51e8b77972eb748a495ffc48\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, during this round of economic recovery, CPI and PPI have obviously diverged. Only PPI is rising rapidly, and the GDP deflator, which can better reflect price changes, has not risen significantly.Even though China's economy has continued to recover for four quarters, the actual inflationary pressure it faces is not great.This divergence is not a new phenomenon. After 2016, there has been a continuous divergence between PPI and CPI. This at least shows that,In the past five years, there has been no effective evidence that PPI can be transmitted to CPI, and the price transmission mechanism from the production side to the consumer side is not smooth.To sum up, China does not have the basis for imported inflation, so there is no need to worry about the so-called imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rise in commodity prices.As shown in Figure 6 above, the current price increase of domestic commodities is the most prominent price increase of ferrous metals, followed by non-ferrous metals. Among the year-on-year growth rates of PPI by industry in March 2021, the ferrous metal mining and dressing industry ranked the highest in the industry with a growth rate of 34.7%, and the ferrous metal processing industry also ranked at the forefront with a growth rate of 21.5%; The high PPI growth rates of non-ferrous metal processing (21.3%) and non-ferrous metal mining (13.3%) also confirm the rise in non-ferrous metal prices. Combined with the data in Figure 8, among ferrous metals, China's demand for chromium accounts for more than 60% of the world, and its demand for manganese and iron is close to 50%; Among non-ferrous metals, my country's demand for tungsten accounts for nearly 80% of the world, and its demand for aluminum and copper also exceeds 50%.Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices.Inflation is a total issue, and the expression of inflation implies the meaning of economic overheating, which will constrain monetary policy. The macro data of the past two months shows that my country's economy is still in the recovery channel, and the core CPI has just broken away from the continuous downward trend. Although many service industries continue to recover, they are still a certain distance from normal. It is too early to discuss inflationary pressure at this time.To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits.After 2016, the proportion of upstream industries in the profits of industrial enterprises increased significantly, and declined slightly in 2019, but it was still higher than the level before 2016.In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industry chain,On the one hand, we can continue to use targeted tax reduction and fee reduction measures,Improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprises, but considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, there is limited room for structural fiscal policies to play a role.On the other hand, it is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends。","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does China need to worry about imported inflation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoes China need to worry about imported inflation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-05-08 09:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAbstract: China does not have three conditions for imported inflation. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. But on the whole, there are at least three conditions to produce imported inflation: first, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage, these three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China does not have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rising commodity prices-Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it.The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industrial chain, on the one hand,We can continue to use targeted tax and fee reduction measures to improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprisesHowever, considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, the space for structural fiscal policy to play a role is also limited. On the other hand,It is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends.--Zhu He and Sheng Zhongming, young researchers at China Financial Forty Forum (CF40)Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. Combing the existing academic research and facts can find that,Imported inflation has its specific mechanism, and China's reality does not fully meet its conditions.The current phased rise in PPI is certainly related to the rise in commodity prices, but it is far from the so-called \"imported inflation\", should not be misunderstood as \"imported inflation\" to avoid misjudgment in decision-making.1. Definition and mechanism of imported inflation1. How academic papers define imported inflationImported inflation refers to the increase of the overall domestic price level caused by the change of external economic factors.International research on Imported Inflation (Imported Inflation) began during the oil crisis in 1970s. In his study of American inflation from 1971 to 1974, Cagan (1980) mainly attributed the domestic price increase to external shocks, and proposed that this externally transmitted inflation cannot be effectively controlled through domestic monetary policy. Kolodko (1987) defines imported inflation as an upward trend in prices \"caused by abnormal inflows of effective demand in excess of supply or increasing import costs\".However, judging from the history of two continuous sharp price increases of international commodities in the last half century, it seems that imported inflation pairs cannot well explain the inflation differences among countries during the same period.Friedman (1979) compared the inflation levels of the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom during the oil crisis, and found that the inflation levels of various countries did not all change synchronously with the rise of oil prices, and imported inflation was difficult to explain the differences in inflation among countries.He noted that in the early 1970s, inflation in Japan and the UK was above 30% a year, while inflation in the US was around 10% and Germany was less than 5%. In the five years after the oil crisis in 1973, inflation in Germany and Japan slowed down. The annual inflation rate in Germany decreased from about 7% to less than 5%, and that in Japan decreased from more than 30% to 5%; Inflation in the United States reached its peak in the following year, about 12%, dropped to 5% in 1976, and then rose to more than 13% in 1979.He also pointed out that \"Germany and Japan are 100% imported oil, but they have done a better job of reducing inflation than the United States, which imports 50% of oil, or Britain, which has become a big oil producer.\" These significant differences cannot be explained by the impact of the oil crisis.Wu Ge (2011) also sorted out the different manifestations of inflation in different countries in the rising trend of international oil prices from the beginning of the 21st century to 2008, and found that the inflation rate in various countries was basically stable within 4%-5%, which was significantly lower than the 10% during the oil crisis in the 1970s. With an increase of more than 20%, the volatility of inflation itself has become more moderate, and its linkage with commodity prices seems to be weakening. Under the impact of international commodity prices, the inflation rate of countries with high oil dependence such as Germany and Japan has remained at a low level; The U.S. oil dependence is relatively low, but the inflation rate is relatively high. As a major oil producer, Britain's inflation rate is the highest among the four countries.These basic facts show that,Imported inflation or external cost shocks cannot well explain the differences in inflation performance among countries.2. Transmission mechanism of imported inflationThe existing academic research generally divides the influence ways of external factors on domestic price level into three categories, and then constructs an econometric model to verify the corresponding transmission mechanism.Most of these econometric models use indicators such as international commodity prices and money supply of other countries to reflect external factors as explanatory variables, and take changes in domestic CPI and PPI as explained variables. Then, different models are used to verify whether external factors have a significant impact on domestic price levels and how strong the explanation is.We found that there are obvious differences in the research conclusions of the existing academic studies.2.1 Imported inflation under the cost push mechanismTransmission mechanism: Rising prices of imported goods push up the cost of domestic basic products. In the absence of excess demand, rising costs will cause a general increase in price levels and bring about cost-driven inflation.The current discussion on imported inflation is mainly based on this logic. But,For the above mechanism to work, at least three necessary conditions must be met:First, China is the recipient of international commodity price changes, and the domestic supply and demand state basically cannot affect international commodity prices, and the appreciation of its exchange rate cannot offset the increase of import prices.Otherwise, \"input\" will be impossible to talk about. This is why this mechanism will play a significant role in the model of \"small country open economy\".Second, the cost of imported raw materials accounts for the main part of domestic production costs, and its price changes will significantly affect the price of domestic finished products.Ai Jin et al. (2015) calculated according to the model that the price level is affected by the prices of labor, raw materials and land, and found that the average response elasticity of CPI to the prices of the three factors was 0.16, 0.08 and 0.02, respectively. From August 2009 to September 2010, the contribution ratios of labor, raw materials and land prices to CPI from the perspective of cost were 74%, 17% and 9% respectively. It can be seen that among the cost factors, labor cost occupies an absolutely dominant position.Le Blanc et al. (2014) also pointed out that the rise in oil prices brought about by the oil crisis in 1970s had a great impact on inflation in developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and France. However, after 2000, the impact of oil prices on inflation in these countries became very limited.Bernank et al. (2004) also found that after entering the 21st century, commodity prices have little impact on CPI. The reason they concluded is that the proportion of raw materials in the total cost has become smaller, and part of the cost has been absorbed by the profits of manufacturers or distributors.Third, PPI has a smooth transmission effect on CPI.When Wang Jingjing (2011) studied imported inflation, he found that the price of international financial derivatives and import price mainly changed the price of production factors of manufacturers, which ultimately showed the change of PPI. However, due to the poor transmission between PPI and CPI, the influence of imported inflation factors on CPI fluctuations has been greatly weakened.2.2 Imported inflation under the trade mechanismTransmission logic: When inflation and price rises occur abroad, it will stimulate exporters to export more goods to foreign countries, and at the same time restrain domestic residents' consumption of foreign imported goods, and instead increase the consumption of domestic goods, which will ultimately bring about domestic total demand. Increased demand triggers domestic inflation.If the above mechanism is to be established, it must also meet two necessary conditions:One is a fixed exchange rate.Under the above-mentioned price mechanism, if foreign inflation factors want to have an effect on the trade structure, they must require the domestic exchange rate to be fixed, otherwise the relative changes of domestic and foreign prices will be reflected in changes in exchange rates.Second, the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities and the demand price elasticity of imported commodities should be large enough。 If the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities is small, even if foreign prices change greatly, domestic exports will not be greatly affected. At the same time, if the price elasticity of domestic demand for imported goods is also small, the price increase of imported goods will not significantly affect the demand.2.3 Imported inflation caused by stable exchange rateTransmission mechanism: When inflation and price increase occur abroad, it will cause the foreign currency to depreciate relative to the local currency, and the appreciation of the local currency is expected to cause a large inflow of international capital. For the purpose of maintaining the stability of the country's exchange rate, the country's central bank will passively increase the money supply, thereby stimulating domestic aggregate demand and leading to inflation.The necessary condition for the establishment of this mechanism is that maintaining exchange rate stability is an important goal of the central bank. In other words, in the trilemma, the central bank actually gave up the independence of monetary policy and chose exchange rate stability and free capital flow.Discussion on imported inflation in 2011At present, there is a certain price increase trend in the international commodity market. Some views associate this trend with the upward trend of domestic PPI and raise concerns about \"imported inflation\". We can simply focus on the last round of concentrated discussion on imported inflation in review, that is, in 2011.As shown in Figure 1, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI continued to rise from the beginning of 2010 to 6.5% in July 2011, and the growth rate of PPI also ran at a high level of around 7%. The economic background at that time was that the world was in a period of great policy easing after responding to the international financial shock, and international commodity prices soared. The closing prices of North Sea Brent and WTI crude oil both exceeded US $100/barrel in the first half of 2011. In April of that year, the prices of copper, tin, lead and aluminum on the London Metal Exchange rose by 21.4%, 72.3%, 25.7% and 13.9% respectively year-on-year.%. The prices of corn, wheat, soybeans and soybean oil on the Chicago Exchange rose by 96.2%, 61.2%, 44% and 48.6% respectively.Figure 1: 2009-2013 CPI and PPI monthly year-on-year growth rate (%) trend<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0189eeea4f2edbd48077b454feb916b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Under this background, the market and academic circles have held some discussions on preventing the risk of imported inflation.Peng Sen (2012) comprehensively analyzed the impact of factors such as the global loose monetary environment, international capital speculation on commodities, political instability and economic recovery in oil producing countries on domestic inflation; From the data performance, it describes the transmission of international commodity prices to domestic prices through commodity, capital and information flow channels.However, Wu Ge (2011) sorted out the connotation and transmission mechanism of imported inflation, and found that imported inflation could not explain the differences in inflation among countries in history; And try to explain the above inflation difference with the deviation between the money stock and the economic aggregate, which has a good explanatory effect. Therefore, it is proposed that the primary means to curb domestic inflation is still to control the domestic money aggregate. China Development Research Foundation also organized a seminar in June 2011 to analyze the causes and trends of inflation at that time.Simply review's macro background at that time, it is not difficult to findDomestic stimulus policies are the main cause of inflation. The so-called rise in international commodity prices is, to a certain extent, the result of \"export to domestic sales\".In response to the global financial crisis, the \"4 trillion\" stimulus plan was gradually promoted. In 2009 and 2010, my country's M1 and M2 growth rates were both above 20%. The difference between the year-on-year growth rates of M2 and GDP and the proportion of M2 to GDP were both at that time. historical highs. At the same time, the amount of new credit in 2009 and 2010 reached 9.58 trillion yuan and 7.92 trillion yuan respectively.According to a calculation by CICC (2011) at that time, from 2008 to 2010, China contributed 60% of the world's new currency. [The data comes from \"China Development Research Foundation Research Reference\" No. 19, 2011, which recorded the speech made by the representative of CICC at the macroeconomic situation analysis meeting hosted by China Development Research Foundation on June 3, 2011, in which this data was stated.]Large-scale funds mainly enter the real economy in the form of policy-driven and government investment, which stimulates domestic investment demand and consumer demand and stabilizes economic growth, but also forms periodic excess demand and raises the overall price level. When related infrastructure was gradually converted into productivity, promoting the expansion of productivity and total supply, the inflation situation at that time gradually eased. By December 2011, the monthly CPI growth rate began to fall back to 4.1%, and then gradually dropped to 1.8% in July 2012.As a result, 2011 was the high point of that round of commodity prices, and it was also the cyclical high point of global inflation. Since then, global commodities have entered a five-year downward cycle, and fighting deflationary pressures has become the new main theme.China does not have the conditions for imported inflation at this stage1. Basic fact: PPI is significantly stronger than CPIObserving the price trend from CPI, the dominant factors are still concentrated on the food supply side and the recovery of post-epidemic demand.The continued recovery of pork supply will drive the overall CPI down, and the recovery of the service industry will accelerate, but there is still a certain distance from normal. The core CPI has left the bottom, but the continued upward rate will not be too high.From January to March 2021, the cumulative growth rate of CPI was zero, and the overall CPI trend was still mainly affected by the high base and increased pork supply.The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of food CPI from January to March was 0.2%, which was 20.1 percentage points lower than the high growth rate of 20.3% in the same period last year. Among food consumer goods, pork is still the biggest disturbance factor. Affected by the increase in frozen meat delivery during the Spring Festival and the continuous recovery of live pigs, the average pork price in 22 provinces and cities has dropped from 48.83 yuan/kg on January 1, 2021 to 38.9/kg on April 2, a decrease of 20.3%. The cumulative decline of the pork sub-item in the CPI from January to March also reached 12.5%, driving the overall CPI to run at a low level.In addition, from January to March this year, there was no extreme weather with great impact in the country, which ensured the sufficient supply of seasonal foods such as fresh vegetables. The cumulative growth rate of fresh vegetables CPI from January to March was 4.8% year-on-year, down 4.2 percentage points from the same period last year. percentage points.Figure 2: Monthly cumulative year-on-year growth trend of CPI, food sub-items, and pork sub-items<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c113e7896f0edf18eb10f5b04adb8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Figure 3: Pig supply plays a major role in this round of pig price changes<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c04dfc28112ae1a659c197c6371208\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Observing the core CPI trend excluding the impact of energy and food, it can be seen that it has been downward since 2018. In 2020, affected by the contraction of demand after the impact of the epidemic, the rate of this downward trend has accelerated significantly.In 2020, when the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI hit 1.2% in March, it continued to fall all the way to 0.4% in December. Entering 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI in that month was-0.3%, reaching a historical low. However, in March, the year-on-year growth rate was 0.3%, and the core CPI broke away from the continuous downward trend. This mainly comes from the fact that since February, my country's epidemic prevention and control has basically extinguished local epidemic clusters in various places in January, and the recovery of service consumption is on the right track.Figure 4: Year-on-year growth trend of core CPI and service CPI in that month<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a3a2b093ec625ab2948977a9fbd2cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking forward to the overall CPI trend, the supply and demand of food, especially pork, is still a factor that cannot be ignored.According to the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, according to the average increase rate of 2.1% month-on-month in the number of live pigs in each month of 2020, it is expected that by around June 2021, the number of live pigs will fully recover to the level of 2017. Therefore, the downward momentum of the overall CPI in the next stage is still significant. It should also be noted that the service industry is gradually recovering but the pace is still slow. After the epidemic, residents' consumption demand is still weak, and the upward rate of the core CPI after it breaks away from the bottom is expected to remain low.The inflationary pressures commonly talked about in the market are actually mainly concentrated on PPI。 In March, PPI increased by 4.4% year-on-year and 1.6% month-on-month, the highest month-on-month increase in history. We use the revenue proportion of enterprises above designated size in each industrial industry in 2020 as the weight. According to the upstream, midstream and downstream division method in the \"Shanghai Stock Exchange Industry Chain Index Series Compilation Plan\", we can calculate the respective PPIs of the upstream, midstream and downstream industrial industries in that month. Year-on-year growth rate (Figure 5). It can be found that the overall price increase of industrial products mainly comes from the price increase of upstream industries in the industrial chain.Figure 5: Decomposition of PPI growth rate of upstream, midstream and downstream industrial sectors by revenue weight (%)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aab13d68f58375336de5030f918d5fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, the price increase of the upstream industrial industry cannot be generalized. We use the price on January 2, 2020 as the base period, and use the latest data on April 23, 2021 to observe the price increase of the four major categories of bulk commodities: black, nonferrous metals, crude oil and agricultural products. Changes in the South China Commodity Index after the epidemic (Figure 6). Compared with pre-pandemic, ferrous metals rose the most (152%), followed by non-ferrous metals (39%), followed by agricultural products (19%), while crude oil still suffered a 33% decline.Figure 6: South China Commodity Index Trends of Various Commodities<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a327db62ac8614240225e9e4a91ff5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. China does not need to worry about the risk of imported inflationAs mentioned earlier, there are three main mechanisms of imported inflation (Figure 7), and the current discussion actually basically focuses on the cost-driving approach.Taken together,To produce imported inflation, there are at least three conditions:First, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.At this stage,These three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China doesn't have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.Figure 7: Three main mechanisms and necessary conditions of imported inflation<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079a9dc08120e455d5ea8fcbb744ee74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">First, China is the second largest economy in the world, not a small country as a price-taker。 China's demand for commodities will have a significant impact on international commodity prices.The research of Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang (2019) shows that among the 40 major mineral resources in the world in 2018, 30 mineral consumption in China ranked first in the world [data from Global Mineral Resources Strategy Research Work Report, edited by Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang.].According to statistics (Figure 8), there are 12 kinds of minerals accounting for more than 50% of the world's energy and important mineral consumption in China, and 23 kinds account for more than 40%. These mineral resources include coal, cement limestone, iron, manganese, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and phosphorus.Figure 8: China's major mineral consumption accounted for global proportion in 2018<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/095cf77cf2d2bfb4cd658c3b914490d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wang Anjian, Gao Xinrui. Outlook for China's energy and important mineral resources demand [J]. Proceedings of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2020, 35 (03): 338-344.Secondly, after years of reform, the flexibility of RMB exchange rate has been greatly enhanced at present, which can fully reflect all kinds of economic information.In the process of this round of rising commodity prices, the appreciation of exchange rate has actually played a hedging role in rising commodity prices that rely on external imports. (Figure 9).Figure 9: Trends of South China Commodity Composite Index and RMB Exchange Rate Index<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12aa64af51e8b77972eb748a495ffc48\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, during this round of economic recovery, CPI and PPI have obviously diverged. Only PPI is rising rapidly, and the GDP deflator, which can better reflect price changes, has not risen significantly.Even though China's economy has continued to recover for four quarters, the actual inflationary pressure it faces is not great.This divergence is not a new phenomenon. After 2016, there has been a continuous divergence between PPI and CPI. This at least shows that,In the past five years, there has been no effective evidence that PPI can be transmitted to CPI, and the price transmission mechanism from the production side to the consumer side is not smooth.To sum up, China does not have the basis for imported inflation, so there is no need to worry about the so-called imported inflation.The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rise in commodity prices.As shown in Figure 6 above, the current price increase of domestic commodities is the most prominent price increase of ferrous metals, followed by non-ferrous metals. Among the year-on-year growth rates of PPI by industry in March 2021, the ferrous metal mining and dressing industry ranked the highest in the industry with a growth rate of 34.7%, and the ferrous metal processing industry also ranked at the forefront with a growth rate of 21.5%; The high PPI growth rates of non-ferrous metal processing (21.3%) and non-ferrous metal mining (13.3%) also confirm the rise in non-ferrous metal prices. Combined with the data in Figure 8, among ferrous metals, China's demand for chromium accounts for more than 60% of the world, and its demand for manganese and iron is close to 50%; Among non-ferrous metals, my country's demand for tungsten accounts for nearly 80% of the world, and its demand for aluminum and copper also exceeds 50%.Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices.Inflation is a total issue, and the expression of inflation implies the meaning of economic overheating, which will constrain monetary policy. The macro data of the past two months shows that my country's economy is still in the recovery channel, and the core CPI has just broken away from the continuous downward trend. Although many service industries continue to recover, they are still a certain distance from normal. It is too early to discuss inflationary pressure at this time.To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits.After 2016, the proportion of upstream industries in the profits of industrial enterprises increased significantly, and declined slightly in 2019, but it was still higher than the level before 2016.In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industry chain,On the one hand, we can continue to use targeted tax reduction and fee reduction measures,Improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprises, but considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, there is limited room for structural fiscal policies to play a role.On the other hand, it is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends。\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3629811\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d3216ba9e86e8387a5da72412418e73","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3629811","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1119886772","content_text":"摘要：我国不具备输入性通胀的三个条件。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。\n\n近期，部分大宗商品价格走高，带动PPI快速回正，有观点认为这是典型的输入性通胀。但综合来看，要产生输入性通胀，至少有要有三个条件：一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者；二是固定汇率制度的安排；三是国内各类工业品价格和消费品价格的通畅传导。现阶段，这三个条件在中国基本都不成立，中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险。国内经济的恢复节奏和结构特征可以解释大部分的大宗商品价格上涨——在我国对主要金属矿产需求占全球需求量如此巨大的背景下，国内需求变动才是影响价格的主因。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。为改善这一产业链利润分配失调局面，一方面，可以继续使用针对性的减税降费措施，改善下游、中小企业的现金流，但考虑到目前财政收支形势的困境，结构性的财政政策发挥作用的空间也是有限的。另一方面，依然要从总量层面扩大总需求，在经济还未恢复到疫情正常水平时，应坚定不移的使用扩张性宏观管理政策，不应对大宗商品价格走势过度反应。\n——朱鹤、盛中明 中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）青年研究员\n近期，部分大宗商品价格走高，带动PPI快速回正，有观点认为这是典型的输入性通胀。梳理已有学术研究和事实可以发现，输入性通胀有其特定的作用机制，中国的现实并不完全满足其作用条件。\n目前PPI的阶段性上扬固然与大宗商品价格上涨有关，但与所谓的“输入性通胀”相差甚远，不应将其误读为“输入性通胀”，以免造成决策误判。\n1、输入性通胀的定义与机制\n\n\n\n\n\n\n1. 学术论文如何定义输入性通胀\n\n\n\n\n\n\n输入性通货膨胀，即由外部经济因素变化引起的国内物价总水平的上涨。\n国际上对输入性通胀（Imported Inflation）的研究始于20世纪70年代的石油危机期间，Cagan（1980）在对1971-1974 年美国通货膨胀的研究中，将国内物价上涨主要归因于外部冲击，提出这种外部传导的通货膨胀无法有效地通过国内的货币政策进行控制。Kolodko（1987）将输入型通胀定义为一种“由超过供给的有效需求的异常流入或不断增加的进口成本引起的”物价上涨趋势。\n但从最近半个世纪两次国际大宗商品持续大幅涨价的历史来看，输入性通胀对似乎不能很好地解释同时期内各国的通胀差异。\n弗里德曼（1979）曾比较了石油危机期间美国、日本、德国和英国的通胀水平，发现各国的通胀水平并不都随油价的上涨而同步变化，输入性通胀难以解释各国通胀的差异。\n他指出，20世纪70年代初期，日本和英国的通胀率每年在30%以上，而美国的通胀率在10%左右，德国不到5%。在1973年石油危机之后的五年里，德国和日本的通货膨胀减慢了，德国每年的通胀率从大约7%减到不足5%，日本从30%以上减到5%；美国的通货膨胀却在之后一年达到最高峰，约12%，1976 年降到5%，然后在1979年又升到13%以上。\n他还指出，“德国和日本是100%依靠进口石油的，可是它们在降低通胀率方面，却比50%石油依靠进口的美国、或是已成为大产油国的英国做得好。”以上显著的差异并不能用石油危机的冲击来解释。\n伍戈（2011）也梳理了21世纪初到2008年国际油价上涨趋势中不同国家通胀的不同表现，发现各国通胀率基本稳定在4%-5%以内，显著低于20世纪70年代石油危机期间10%-20%以上的涨幅，通胀自身的波动性更加缓和，且其与大宗商品价格的联动性似乎也在减弱。在国际大宗商品价格冲击下，德国、日本这类石油依存度高的国家通胀率保持在较低水平；而美国石油依存度相对较低，但通胀率反而较高。作为产油大国，英国的通胀率却是这四国中最高的。\n这些基本事实表明，用输入型通胀或外部成本冲击不能很好解释各国在通胀方面的差异表现。\n2. 输入性通胀的传导机制\n现有学术研究一般将外部因素对国内物价水平的影响途径分为三类，然后构建计量模型对相应传导机制进行验证。\n这些计量模型大多使用国际商品价格、其他国家的货币供应量等指标反映外部因素，作为解释变量，将国内CPI、PPI的变动作为被解释变量，然后使用不同模型验证外部因素对国内物价水平是否有显著影响，以及解释力度如何。\n我们发现，已有的学术研究的研究结论存在比较明显的差异。\n2.1 成本推动机制下的输入性通胀\n传导机制：进口商品价格上升推高了国内基础产品的成本，在没有超额需求的条件下，成本提高会引起价格水平的普遍上涨，带来成本推动型的通胀。\n当前对输入性通胀的讨论主要都是基于这个逻辑。但是，上述机制要发挥作用，至少要满足三个必要条件：\n一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者，国内的供需状态基本无法对国际商品价格产生影响，且本国的汇率升值不能抵消进口价格的上涨。\n如若不然，“输入性”也就无从谈起。这也是为什么这一机制在“小国开放经济”模型中会有显著作用。\n二是国外进口原材料的成本在国内生产成本中占主要部分，其价格变动会显著影响国内产成品的价格。\n艾进等（2015）根据物价水平受劳动力、原材料、土地三大要素价格影响的模型计算，发现CPI 对三大要素价格的平均反应弹性分别为0.16、0.08 和0.02，由此计算出2009年8月至2010年9月劳动力、原材料、土地价格从成本角度对CPI 的贡献比例分别为74%、17%和9%。可见在成本因素中，劳动力成本占据绝对主导地位。\nLe Blanc等（2014）也曾指出，20世纪70年代石油危机带来的油价上涨对美、日、法等发达国家的通货膨胀造成了很大影响，但2000年之后，油价对这些国家通胀的影响变得十分有限。\nBernank等(2004) 也发现，进入21世纪以后大宗商品价格对CPI影响较小，他们总结的原因在于原材料占总成本比重变小，且部分成本已经被生产商或经销商利润所吸收。\n三是PPI对CPI有通畅的传导效应。王京晶（2011）在对输入性通胀进行研究时发现，国际金融衍生品价格、进口价格主要改变生产厂商的生产要素价格, 最终表现为PPI的变动。但是，由于PPI与CPI之间传导不通畅，输入型通胀因素对CPI波动的影响程度被大大削弱。\n2.2 贸易机制下的输入性通胀\n传导逻辑：当国外出现通货膨胀、价格上涨时，会刺激出口商更多向外国出口商品，同时抑制本国居民对国外进口商品的消费，而转为增加对本国商品的消费，最终带来国内总需求增加，引发国内通胀。上述机制如要成立，也要满足两个必要条件：\n一是固定汇率。在上述价格机制下，国外的通胀因素如果要对贸易结构产生作用，就必须要求本国的汇率固定，否则国内外价格的相对变动会体现为汇率的变化。\n二是本国出口商品的供给价格弹性和进口商品的需求价格弹性都要足够大。如果本国出口商品的供给价格弹性小，即使国外价格变动很大，国内出口也不会受到很大影响。同时，如果国内对进口商品的需求价格弹性也小，进口商品涨价不会显著影响需求量。\n2.3 稳汇率导致的输入性通胀\n传导机制：当国外出现通货膨胀和价格上涨时，会造成外币相对于本币的贬值，本币升值预期会造成大量国际资本的流入。出于维护本国汇率稳定的目的，本国央行会被动增加货币供给，进而刺激国内总需求并导致通胀。\n这种机制成立的必要条件是保持汇率稳定是央行的重要目标。换言之，在三难选择中央行实际上放弃了货币政策的独立性，选择了汇率稳定和资本自由流动。\n2011年关于输入性通胀的讨论\n当前，国际大宗商品市场存在一定的涨价趋势，部分观点将这一趋势与国内PPI的上行相关联，提出对“输入性通胀”的担忧。我们可以简单复盘上一轮关于输入性通胀的集中讨论，也就是2011年。\n如图1所示，当时CPI当月同比增速从2010年初开始持续冲高至2011年7月6.5%，PPI增速也运行在7%左右的高位。当时的经济背景是，全球正处于应对国际金融冲击后的政策大宽松时期，国际大宗商品价格飙升。北海布伦特与WTI原油收盘价均在2011年上半年突破100美元/桶，当年4月，伦敦金属交易所的铜、锡、铅、铝价格同比分别上涨21.4%、72.3%、25.7%和13.9%。芝加哥交易所的玉米、小麦、大豆、豆油价格分别上涨了96.2%、61.2%、44%和48.6%。\n图1：2009-2013年CPI与PPI月同比增速（%）走势\n\n在这样的背景下，市场和学界围绕防范输入性通货膨胀风险展开了一定讨论。\n彭森（2012）全面分析了全球的宽松货币环境、国际资金炒作大宗商品、石油生产国政治不稳定和经济恢复等因素对国内通胀的影响；并从数据表现上描述了国际商品价格通过商品、资本和信息流动渠道对国内价格的传导。\n但是，伍戈（2011）则梳理了输入型通胀的内涵及其传导机理，发现输入性通胀并不能解释历史上各国通胀的差异；并尝试用货币存量与经济总量的偏离程度解释上述通胀差异，有较好的解释效果，由此提出抑制国内通胀的首要手段依然是控制好国内货币总量。中国发展研究基金会也在2011年6月组织研讨会分析当时通胀的成因和趋势。\n简单复盘当时的宏观背景，不难发现国内的刺激政策才是造成通胀的主要原因，所谓国际大宗商品价格上涨，一定程度上是“出口转内销”的结果。\n为应对全球性金融危机, “4万亿”刺激计划逐步推进, 2009年和2010年我国M1 和M2增速均处于20%以上, M2与GDP同比增速差额和M2占GDP比重均处在当时的历史高位。同时，2009年和2010年新增信贷额分别达到9.58万亿元和7.92万亿元。\n根据当时中金公司（2011）的一项测算，2008-2010年，中国贡献了全球新增货币中的60%。[数据来源于《中国发展研究基金会研究参考》2011年第19号，其中记录了当时中金公司代表在2011年6月3日由中国发展研究基金会主办的宏观经济形势分析会上的发言，发言中对这一数据做了表述。]\n大规模资金主要以政策驱动、政府投资的形式进入实体经济, 激发了国内的投资需求和消费需求，稳定了经济增长，但也形成了阶段性的超额需求，抬升了总体价格水平。当相关基建逐渐转换为生产力、促进生产率和总供给的扩大之后，当时的通胀形势也逐渐缓和下来，到了2011年12月，CPI月同比增速开始回落至4.1%，此后又逐步降至2012年7月份的1.8%。\n从结果看，2011年恰是那一轮商品价格的高点，同时也是全球通胀水平的周期性高点。自那以后，全球大宗商品进入了持续5年的下跌周期，对抗通缩压力成为了新的主旋律。\n现阶段中国不具备输入性通胀的条件\n1. 基本事实：PPI明显强于CPI\n从CPI观察价格走势，其主导因素仍集中于食品供给端和疫后需求恢复。猪肉供给持续恢复会带动整体CPI下行，服务业复苏加快，但距离常态还有一定距离，核心CPI已经脱离底部，但持续上行速率不会太高。\n2021年1-3月，CPI累计增速为零，整体CPI的走势依然数主要受高基数和猪肉供给增强的影响。\n1-3月食品类CPI累计同比增速为0.2%，较去年同期20.3%的高增速下降了20.1个百分点。食品类消费品中，猪肉依旧是最大的扰动因素。受此前春节期间冷冻肉投放增加和生猪存栏持续恢复影响，22省市平均猪肉价格已经从2021年1月1日的48.83元/千克降至4月2日的38.9/千克，降幅20.3%。CPI中的猪肉分项在1-3月的累计降幅也达到12.5%，拉动整体CPI在低位运行。\n此外，今年1-3月份，全国未出现影响较大的极端天气，保证了鲜菜等时令性食品供给的充足，鲜菜类CPI1-3月累计同比增速4.8%，较去年同期下降了4.2个百分点。\n图2：CPI与食品分项、猪肉分项月累计同比增速走势\n\n图3：生猪供给对本轮猪价变动起到主要作用\n\n观察剔除了能源和食品影响的核心CPI走势，可见其自2018年以来一路下行的趋势。在2020年，受疫情冲击后的需求收缩影响，这一下行趋势的速率明显加快。2020年，当核心CPI当月同比增速在3月份触及1.2%后，继续一路下降到12月的0.4%。进入2021年，核心CPI当月同比增速为-0.3%，达到历史最低值。但在3月份，当月同比增速0.3%，核心CPI脱离了持续下行的趋势。这主要来源于，2月份以来，我国疫情防控基本扑灭了1月份各地的局部聚集疫情，服务性消费恢复走上了正轨。\n图4：核心CPI与服务CPI当月同比增速走势\n\n展望整体CPI走势，食品尤其是猪肉供需状态仍是不容忽视的因素。根据农业农村部相关负责人表示，按2020年的各月生猪存栏量环比平均递增2.1%的速度，预计到2021年6月份左右，生猪存栏量就会完全恢复到2017年的存栏水平。所以，整体CPI的在下一阶段下行的动力依旧显著。还要注意到服务业逐步恢复但节奏仍偏缓慢，疫后居民消费需求依然偏弱，核心CPI脱离底部后上行的速率预计仍会较低。\n市场普遍谈论的通胀压力实际上主要集中于PPI。3月份PPI同比增4.4%，环比增1.6%，为历史最高环比涨幅。我们用每个工业行业的规模以上企业2020年的营收占比作为权重，按照《上证产业链指数系列编制方案》中的上中下游划分办法，可以计算出上中下游工业行业各自的PPI当月同比增速（图5）。可以发现，整体工业品的价格上涨在数据表现主要来源于产业链上游行业的涨价。\n图5：按营收权重分解上中下游工业行业PPI当月同比增速(%)\n\n但上游工业行业的涨价也并不能一概而论，我们以2020年1月2日的价格为基期，以2021年4月23日的最新数据观察黑色、有色、原油和农产品四大类大宗商品在疫情之后的南华商品指数变动（图6）。与疫情之前相比，黑色金属涨幅最大（152%），其次是有色金属（39%），接着是农产品（19%），而原油则仍有33%的跌幅。\n图6：各类大宗商品的南华商品指数走势\n\n2. 中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险\n如前文所述，输入性通胀有三种主要作用机制（图7），当前讨论实际上基本集中在成本推动途径上。\n综合来看，要产生输入性通胀，至少有要有三个条件：一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者；二是固定汇率制度的安排；三是国内各类工业品价格和消费品价格的通畅传导。\n现阶段，这三个条件在中国基本都不成立，中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险。\n图7：输入性通胀三种主要作用机制和必要条件\n\n首先，中国是全球第二大经济体，并不是作为价格接受者的小国经济。中国对大宗商品的需求会对国际大宗商品价格产生显著影响。\n王安建和王高尚（2019）的研究表明，2018 年全球主要40 种矿产资源中，我国有30种矿产消费量居世界第一位[数据来源于《全球矿产资源战略研究工作报告》，王安建、王高尚主编。]。\n根据统计（图8），我国能源和重要矿产消费量中占全球比例超过50%的矿种有12种，超过40%的有23种。这些矿产资源中不乏煤炭、水泥灰岩、铁、锰、铜、铝、铅、锌和磷等大宗。\n图8：2018 年中国主要矿产消费量占全球比例\n数据来源：王安建,高芯蕊.中国能源与重要矿产资源需求展望[J].中国科学院院刊,2020,35(03):338-344.\n其次，经过多年的改革，目前人民币汇率的弹性大大增强，能够比较充分反映各类经济信息。本轮大宗商品价格上涨的过程中，汇率升值对依赖外部进口的大宗商品价格上涨事实上起到了对冲作用。（图9）。\n图9：南华商品综合指数与人民币汇率指数走势\n\n最后，在本轮经济复苏过程中，CPI和PPI则出现明显背离，只有PPI在快速上升，更能综合反映物价变化的GDP平减指数也没有显著上升。即使中国经济已经持续复苏了4个季度，实际面临的通胀压力也并不大。\n这种背离并不是新现象。2016年之后，PPI与CPI就一直存在持续背离。这至少说明，过去五年里，并没有看到PPI能够向CPI传导的有效证据，从生产端向消费端的价格传导机制并不顺畅。\n综上可知，中国不具备输入性通胀的基础，不必担忧所谓的输入性通胀。国内经济的恢复节奏和结构特征可以解释大部分的大宗商品价格上涨。如前文图6所示，当前国内大宗商品的价格上涨最突出是黑色金属的涨价，有色金属位于其次。而2021年3月分行业的PPI同比增速中，黑色金属的采选业以34.7%的增速位居全行业最高，黑色金属加工业21.5%的增速也位居前列；有色金属加工（21.3%）和有色金属采选（13.3%）的高PPI增速也与有色价格的上涨互相印证。而结合图8数据，在黑色金属中，我国对铬的需求量全球占比超过60%，对锰和铁的需求量则接近50%；有色金属中，我国对钨的需求量全球占比接近80%，对铝、铜的需求量也超过50%。在我国对主要金属矿产需求占全球需求量如此巨大的背景下，国内需求变动才是影响价格的主因。\n通胀是总量问题，通胀的表述隐含着经济过热的意义，这会对货币政策形成掣肘。近两个月的宏观数据表明，我国经济尚处于复苏通道中，核心CPI也刚刚脱离连续下滑的趋势，许多服务性行业虽然在持续恢复，但距离常态还有一定距离，此时讨论通胀压力为时尚早。\n应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。2016年之后，上游行业占工业企业利润的比重显著上升，2019年略有下降，但依然比2016年之前的水平更高。\n为改善这一产业链利润分配失调局面，一方面，可以继续使用针对性的减税降费措施，改善下游、中小企业的现金流，但考虑到目前财政收支形势的困境，结构性的财政政策发挥作用的空间也是有限的。另一方面，依然要从总量层面扩大总需求，在经济还未恢复到疫情正常水平时，应坚定不移的使用扩张性宏观管理政策，不应对大宗商品价格走势过度反应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":44,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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