Shadow market activity points to a highly anticipated debut for SpaceX stock, with indications suggesting a surge of over 35% for Elon Musk's aerospace and artificial intelligence venture.

Online brokerage IG International's derivative products suggested a market capitalization reaching $2.4 trillion on Friday morning in Singapore. This implies a gain exceeding 35% from an initial public offering price of $135 per share, which would value the company at $1.77 trillion.

On the crypto platform Hyperliquid, perpetual futures contracts linked to SpaceX, which have no expiry date, were trading around $180. This price level suggests a valuation surpassing $2.3 trillion. More than $143 million worth of this instrument changed hands in the last day, with open interest currently above $208 million.

Prediction markets are reinforcing this optimistic outlook. Traders on Polymarket are assigning a 70% probability that SpaceX's market value will close above $2 trillion on its first trading day.

While these signals reflect significant market enthusiasm, they may not directly predict the stock's actual price movement. Shadow markets typically have lower liquidity and transparency compared to public exchanges. Consequently, prices can be volatile and may be influenced by a limited number of traders, the use of leverage, or short-term speculation rather than widespread investor interest.

Nevertheless, the pricing activity highlights the intense investor demand for assets that combine artificial intelligence with space infrastructure. A successful debut for SpaceX, marked by a substantial first-day gain, could create positive momentum for upcoming IPOs from companies like OpenAI and Anthropic PBC. It would provide investment bankers with evidence that public markets are capable of supporting valuations in the trillions, a concept that seemed implausible only a few years prior.

An IG market analyst noted that demand for the IPO has been robust, with significant interest also observed in pre-IPO trading. The analyst described it as the most popular pre-IPO trade they have seen to date, even considering the stretched valuation. They added that if this pre-IPO pricing momentum continues, it could establish a benchmark for future large-scale public offerings.

In the near term, a powerful debut for SpaceX might redirect investment capital away from other major technology stocks, including the so-called Magnificent Seven and potentially even Tesla Inc. Simultaneously, it could boost the shares of global suppliers, competitors, and other companies connected to Musk's rocket and satellite enterprise.