Alphabet has hit a market value of $3 trillion. That’s a first for shares, and a reminder that, in the stock market, there is typically a price at which all of the risks facing a stock are adequately reflected.
Shares of the technology company added 4.5%, closing at $251.61 on Monday, while the S&P 500 was up 0.5% and theDow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%.
The closing price values Alphabet stock just north of $3 trillion. It’s the first time Alphabet has crossed that threshold, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Only three other companies have achieved that valuation: Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple.
It’s a relief. I wrote positively about Alphabet stock in November 2024, when shares were beaten down by antitrust fears and ChatGPT’s threat to the company’s internet search dominance. A lot was going wrong at the time, and shares traded as low as $140.53 in the months after our recommendation.
Alphabet still faces risks from AI. But in Nov. 2024, the stock was trading for about 19 times estimated next year’s earnings, a discount to its history, the S&P 500, and the rest of the Magnificent Seven stocks, excluding Tesla, which traded for about 28 times earnings.
(Tesla stock is an outlier in the Mag Seven, trading for about 100 times estimated next year’s earnings in November 2024 and closer to 160 times earnings today.)
Valuation was a big reason we suggested buying the stock. As for catalysts, which typically accompany a positive stock call, an antitrust-induced breakup could have unlocked value, forcing investors to look at Waymo, YouTube, Android devices, and search separately. Of course, if AI chatbots completely disrupt Google search, Alphabet stock might not be a good bet at any price. Alphabet, however, has its own foundational AI to compete with ChatGPT and the financial resources to develop it.
We believed Alphabet shares could rise 50%. That was with Alphabet at $167.43. Through Monday trading, it was up about 50.3% from that price. (Picks don’t always work out that neatly.)
Does that mean it’s time to sell? Not necessarily. Alphabet shares have solid momentum, and it’s still the cheapest of the Mag Seven, trading for about 23 times estimated 2026 earnings. Five of the others—we’re excluding outlier Tesla—trade for about 28 times.
As stocks get more expensive, it’s natural to get less enthusiastic about them, but it doesn’t mean investors have to sell winners. It can mean, perhaps, resizing a position in a portfolio.
To be sure, Alphabet still faces risks. AI isn’t going away. There are many new competitors for it to battle. How the company meets that competition will determine how the stock does, now that some of the acute antitrust fears have passed.
Wall Street still likes the shares, with 82% of analysts covering the company rating the stock Buy, according to FactSet. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 55%.
The average analyst price target for Alphabet shares, however, is about $235, below where shares are trading. Watching how analysts react to the recent rally, by cutting ratings or raising price targets, can be another factor for Alphabet investors to consider in figuring out what to do with the stock.
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