Today (December 26), the commodity markets once again entered a frenzied rally during the early trading session. Against the backdrop of overseas markets being closed for the Christmas holiday, domestic precious and base metals prices surged collectively, with multiple varieties刷新ing historical records. Notably, the main platinum futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit-up during the session, while silver and copper futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange staged strong advances. Copper prices are now just a step away from the 100,000 yuan per ton threshold. The rapid ascent of platinum and palladium futures prices has also prompted the exchange to implement additional risk control measures. Driven by a confluence of speculative sentiment and fundamental factors, precious and base metals continue to rewrite historical records, becoming the focal point of market attention. Some institutions have also cautioned that with prices rising rapidly, short-term volatility risks in the precious metals market have significantly amplified. Platinum futures hit the limit-up, with volatility risks increasing. On December 26, the main platinum futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange surged rapidly after opening, hitting the daily limit-up during the session. The intraday gain reached 9.99%, closing at 709.85 yuan per gram, setting another new record high since its listing. Market data showed an intraday increase in open interest of approximately 2,800 lots, indicating persistently strong bullish sentiment. Simultaneously, international spot platinum prices also strengthened, rising over 5% to $2,333.85 per ounce, demonstrating clear linkage between domestic and international markets. As one of the standout performers among precious metals this year, platinum, supported by tight supply and demand, speculative capital inflows, and the overall strength in precious metals, continues to刷新 market perceptions of its price center. However, as prices climb rapidly, volatility risks are also significantly放大. Wu Zijie, an analyst at Jinyuan Futures, pointed out that current market risk appetite is at a high level, and price fluctuations cannot be ignored. With the expansion of daily price limits, the room for two-way price volatility has been further opened up. The "V-shaped" reversal in platinum and the relatively weaker performance of palladium indicate that the consensus within the sector is being broken. He further stated that although the long-term allocation logic for precious metals has not fundamentally changed, the significant divergence between domestic and international prices and extreme intraday volatility in the short term reflect ongoing instability in market pricing. Investors need to remain rational, avoid blindly chasing rallies in a high-volatility environment, and be wary of potential price correction risks after overseas markets resume trading post-holiday. Shanghai copper hits new high, approaching 100,000 yuan mark. Besides precious metals, base metals also showed strong performance. On December 26, the main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged over 3%, hitting a session high of 98,780 yuan per ton, just a step away from the 100,000 yuan per ton psychological barrier and setting a new historical record. From a fundamental perspective, the tight global copper mine supply situation persists, with frequent mine disruptions and new capacity releases falling short of expectations. Inventories in non-US regions remain generally low. Domestically, expectations of阶段性 reductions in refined copper production provide some support on the supply side. Concurrently, the substantial rise in precious metals prices has also buoyed copper prices sentimentally. However, short-term pressures on the physical spot side cannot be overlooked. SDIC Futures noted that recent discounts for Shanghai standard-grade copper have widened to 360 yuan. Data from My steel showed that domestic social inventories increased by 22,200 tons this week to 202,200 tons, indicating some adjustment pressure on copper prices from short-term spot supply and demand. Yet, against the backdrop of a seasonal demand lull, persistent raw material tightness may still transmit to the domestic refined copper sector, and favorable domestic-international price spreads encourage exports, partially offsetting the impact of rising inventories. Taking a longer-term view, institutions remain relatively optimistic about the medium to long-term trajectory of copper prices. GF Securities believes that as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, its positive effect on global demand will gradually materialize, and the non-ferrous metals industry's inventory cycle is expected to enter a primary upward wave. It is projected that by 2026, the supply-demand balance for copper end-use will remain tight, and coupled with持续宽松 liquidity, the price center for copper is expected to rise further. The institution判断 that after experiencing this inventory cycle, the future floor for copper prices may remain above $10,000 per ton for an extended period, and the valuation center for copper-related stocks is also expected to shift upwards accordingly. Multiple factors resonate, various varieties刷新 records. Against the backdrop of共振 between speculative sentiment and fundamentals, precious and base metals prices have accelerated their ascent阶段ally towards the year-end,纷纷刷新ing historical highs. From gold and silver to platinum and palladium, and further to copper, even nickel surged nearly 8% last week, hitting a high of 130,000 yuan. Overall, this rally is not driven by a single factor but is amplified by the combined effects of improving fundamentals, liquidity conditions, sentiment, and capital flows. Industry insiders believe the current collective strength in precious and base metals is primarily supported by four factors: Firstly, rising geopolitical uncertainty has significantly enhanced safe-haven demand, leading to持续 inflows into precious metal assets like gold, silver, and platinum. Secondly, the阶段性 weakening of the US dollar has diminished the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, driving capital towards physical assets represented by precious metals, while also boosting prices for base metals like copper. Thirdly, against the backdrop of accelerated development in the artificial intelligence industry and the ongoing global energy transition, demand centers for related metals are rising. Fourthly, supply-side constraints persist, with frequent mine disruptions and tight supply for varieties like copper, silver, and platinum, providing solid support for price increases. In the context of a gradually easing global liquidity environment and difficulties in quickly resolving resource supply constraints, the medium to long-term allocation logic for precious and base metals remains attractive. However, as prices continuously刷新 historical highs, short-term volatility and correction risks are simultaneously accumulating. Exchange intervenes again late at night, implementing multiple measures to cool the market. Against the backdrop of持续 rising prices and明显放大的 volatility, the exchange has再度强化ed risk controls. Late on December 25th, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued an announcement adjusting trading instructions and position limits for relevant platinum and palladium futures contracts. The announcement stated that starting from the trading session on December 29, 2025, the minimum order quantity for opening new positions in platinum futures contracts PT2606, PT2608, PT2610, and PT2612 will be adjusted from 1 lot to 2 lots, while the order quantity for closing positions remains at 1 lot. Palladium futures contracts PD2606, PD2608, PD2610, and PD2612 will undergo the same adjustments simultaneously. Furthermore, the daily opening position limit for non-futures company members or clients in the aforementioned platinum and palladium futures contracts shall not exceed 300 lots, further compressing space for short-term speculation. It is worth noting that this is not the first intervention by the exchange this month. Since December, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has repeatedly implemented a series of risk control measures for platinum and palladium futures, including raising margin requirements, expanding daily price limits, increasing transaction fees, and imposing position limits, aiming to guide rational trading and curb excessive speculation. Market participants generally believe that as commodity prices持续刷新 historical highs, the exchange's institutional arrangements to "cool" the market help mitigate risks of short-term irrational volatility and lay the foundation for the long-term healthy operation of these commodities.
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