Abstract
Joby Aviation, Inc. will release quarterly results on November 4, 2026 Post-Mkt; our preview highlights an expected revenue of 39.22 million US dollars, a forecast adjusted EPS near -0.25, and continued investment-driven losses as management executes on certification, autonomy integration, and early-stage operations.Market Forecast
The current quarter forecast points to revenue of 39.22 million US dollars, representing an estimated year-over-year increase of 2,063.90%, with forecast adjusted EPS of -0.25 and forecast EBIT of -231.03 million US dollars, implying a -45.47% year-over-year change; gross margin and net profit margin guidance were not provided. The company’s main business is concentrated in passenger services, which management continues to advance with pre-operational activities and demonstration flights supported by a growing infrastructure footprint, while near-term profitability remains constrained by certification, autonomy, and integration costs. The most promising segment is passenger services, which delivered 36.17 million US dollars last quarter (93.62% of revenue), with year-over-year growth for the segment not disclosed but implied momentum from the overall revenue surge.Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter, Joby Aviation, Inc. reported revenue of 38.64 million US dollars, a gross profit margin of 26.76%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -245.00 million US dollars, net profit margin not disclosed, and adjusted EPS of -0.25; revenue rose 257,493.33% year-over-year and adjusted EPS improved by 28.57% year-over-year. A notable highlight was the scale-up of operating activities that supported reported sales while gross margin remained positive at 26.76%, underscoring initial cost discipline amid heavy development spending. The main business mix was led by passenger services at 36.17 million US dollars (93.62% of total), supplemented by flight services and engineering services at 2.47 million US dollars; segment-level year-over-year growth was not disclosed.Current Quarter Outlook
Main business trajectory this quarter
Passenger services will remain the core revenue driver this quarter, as the company continues pre-commercial activities, test operations, and demonstration flights tied to its near-term deployment plans. Management’s revenue forecast of 39.22 million US dollars suggests a modest sequential increase from last quarter’s 38.64 million US dollars, with momentum supported by ongoing operations and services that are being established around targeted city pairs and airport access. However, the earnings profile remains loss-making as the company absorbs certification, testing, and manufacturing readiness costs; forecast adjusted EPS is -0.25, while forecast EBIT stands at -231.03 million US dollars, reflecting continued investment. The reported gross margin of 26.76% last quarter provides a partial offset to operating losses, but near-term mix and utilization factors can swing margins, particularly as the operating base expands faster than recurring revenue. Execution of on-airport demonstrations and operational rehearsals helps build the services playbook, though these activities do not yet carry the unit economics of mature passenger operations. In parallel, the company continues to layer early-stage, non-passenger revenue and services, which can provide incremental gross profit but are not expected to materially improve bottom-line results this quarter.Most promising business
Passenger services represent the largest growth potential, with last quarter’s 36.17 million US dollars accounting for 93.62% of revenue. The company has aligned its development cadence around practical corridor testing, airport access, and integration with distribution platforms, including app-based booking pathways designed to simplify customer onboarding; the integration work is expected to facilitate future ramp, though near-term revenue impact is incremental. In the current quarter, operational rehearsals and infrastructure readiness remain central to the passenger offering, with continued emphasis on urban corridors, airport connections, and integrated transfers. Near-term growth is likely to reflect incremental service expansion rather than large step-function gains, but any acceleration in airport access, demonstration throughput, or partnership-driven traffic would reinforce the line of sight to scalable services over the next several reporting periods. With segment-level year-over-year growth not disclosed, investors should anchor near-term expectations to the company-level forecast and the measured pace of pre-commercial activity, recognizing that reported revenue continues to blend early services, demonstrations, and adjacent activities rather than mature, full-fare operations.Key stock-price drivers this quarter
Certification progress, capital allocation, and autonomy integration are likely to dominate stock moves around this print. On September 18, 2026, the company announced completion of a self-flying, transcontinental flight using its autonomous technology stack aboard a converted Cessna platform, a milestone that showcases autonomy capabilities for logistics and potential future services. On September 29, 2026, the company received a 45.00 million US dollars ceiling increase on a U.S. Air Force program related to autonomous logistics and cargo, reinforcing non-passenger revenue avenues and validating ongoing work in autonomy; however, program timing implies that revenue recognition remains phased over multiple years. Capital structure and funding actions remain center stage: on August 12, 2026, the company announced an agreement to acquire a defense technology company for about 500.00 million US dollars, supporting autonomy integration but introducing incremental cash needs and execution complexity, while on September 11, 2026, a prospectus supplement relating to a registered resale of 2.42 million shares indicated continued capital markets activity that can influence sentiment on potential dilution. Finally, rating changes also feed into near-term volatility: on October 10, 2026, a downgrade to Underweight added pressure to the shares, and on October 16, 2026, a price target reduction to 10.00 US dollars signaled tempered institutional expectations; together, these factors can amplify moves around earnings as investors parse the trajectory for certification milestones, cost run-rates, and the pathway to commercial deployment.Beyond these catalysts, operational infrastructure steps support the services ramp and can shape revenue cadence. The company signed a lease for a Texas hub on August 6, 2026 and announced a vertiport network development collaboration in early August, while a unit partnered to relaunch a seasonal jet service on October 2, 2026, highlighting incremental network and service breadth. These activities contribute to revenue and readiness but also add operating complexity and costs, a dynamic that helps explain the negative EBIT outlook even as revenue rises. Put together, the current quarter narrative is a balance of incremental revenue growth, visible operating investment, and milestone-driven news flow that can swing sentiment quickly.
Analyst Opinions
Bearish opinions outnumber bullish ones during the last six months, with at least two notable bearish calls and no clearly articulated bullish initiations or upgrades in the period considered. On October 10, 2026, an investment bank downgraded the stock to Underweight, citing a more cautious stance that contributed to a pullback in the shares; the downgrade centered on concerns about the extended investment cycle, certification timing, and the risk that capital requirements could remain elevated longer than previously expected. On September 11, 2026, a major sell-side house reiterated a Sell rating with an 8.00 US dollars price target, emphasizing dilution and execution risks tied to the announced autonomy-focused acquisition and the resourcing needed to integrate new technologies into the development pipeline; the note highlighted that while autonomy milestones are encouraging, the integration burden may elevate near-term cash burn and complicate the earnings bridge in the medium term.Complementing these views, another global bank reduced its price target to 10.00 US dollars on October 16, 2026, framing the move as a recalibration of valuation assumptions to reflect extended negative EBIT and a slower path to breakeven. Consensus snapshots compiled during October 2026 indicated an average rating near Hold and a mean price target around the low-10s in US dollars, but the directional change—downgrade and target cuts—tilted sentiment toward caution ahead of earnings. Importantly, bearish analysts tend to converge on a similar set of concerns: certification and deployment timelines that continue to push break-even out, operating expense trajectories that remain high due to autonomy and integration spending, and capital structure dynamics that may necessitate periodic financing, particularly as the company progresses from testing to scaled service operations.
The bearish majority also underscores that the near-term financial setup is inherently investment-heavy. While last quarter’s 26.76% gross margin showed the potential for favorable unit economics at early scale, bears point to the magnitude of forecast EBIT at -231.03 million US dollars this quarter and adjusted EPS around -0.25 as signals that profitability remains distant. They expect that integration of the approximately 500.00 million US dollars autonomy acquisition will require additional engineering, certification, and testing resources, exerting pressure on quarterly loss levels even as the revenue base grows. In their view, the earnings print could therefore be a mixed bag: revenues and milestones that validate progress offset by OPEX and CAPEX that keep cash burn elevated, sustaining a cautious bias until there is clearer line-of-sight to certified services and materially positive operating leverage.
Despite the cautious stance, bears acknowledge that milestone announcements can catalyze sharp upside in the stock, particularly around autonomy demonstrations and contract expansions like the late-September 45.00 million US dollars ceiling increase on the Air Force program. However, they argue that such news is best weighed against the consolidated financial outlook, where the forecast implies a steep year-over-year revenue surge but persistent negative earnings. The preponderance of bearish commentary thus centers on managing expectations for the income statement in the next few quarters, rather than disputing the strategic logic of the program roadmap. Heading into November 4, 2026, these analysts will be watching for any updates on certification timing, cost trajectory, integration milestones, and capital plans, which in their view are the decisive variables for the next leg of share-price performance.
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