Is Virgin Galactic Stock Right For A Long-Term Investor?

seekingalpha2021-04-30

Summary Virgin Galactic stock is beaten down following test flight delays and insider selling. We consider whether now is the right time for long-term investors to buy into this stock. Along the way,...

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Comments

RichTee
2021-04-30
RichTee
Short
Sap
2021-04-30
Sap
Yes so you can short
KHYAP
2021-04-30
KHYAP
That for sure
idkwhatimdoi
2021-04-30
idkwhatimdoi
reply to me pleasee
- Ealmighty:
  Done please response to my comment thanks
- 我来啦你不要跑:
  Done
Wallstrtbets
2021-04-30
Wallstrtbets
Short.
Godon
2021-04-30
Godon
Spacs all down

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Virgin Galactic Stock Right For A Long-Term Investor?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-30 17:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4422584-virgin-galactic-stock-long-term-investor><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nVirgin Galactic stock is beaten down following test flight delays and insider selling.\nWe consider whether now is the right time for long-term investors to buy into this stock.\nAlong the way,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4422584-virgin-galactic-stock-long-term-investor\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SPCE","symbol_name":"维珍银河","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4422584-virgin-galactic-stock-long-term-investor","article_id":"1147769151","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147769151","pubTimestamp":1619773234,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nVirgin Galactic stock is beaten down following test flight delays and insider selling.\nWe c","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"translate_title":"维珍银河股票是一个长期投资者的权利吗？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nVirgin Galactic stock is beaten down following test flight delays and insider selling.\nWe consider whether now is the right time for long-term investors to buy into this stock.\nAlong the way, we consider the looming presence of SpaceX and Blue Origin in the emerging space tourism market.\n\nIn The Beginning, There Was Only Nothingness. Then There Was SPCE.\nWe've covered Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) from the moment the SPAC deal with the Social Capital shell company IPOA was announced. Indeed, such was our excitement at finally being able to buy a pureplay tradable public space stock (bearing in mind we started a space-sector investment research business in 2017!), we bought right away, prior to the SPAC / operating company merger. A good move as it turned out. Our in-cost in staff accounts was, from memory, $11 and change, and though the name dived below that in its early days, it has for the most part been a rocket ride of a holding. The rocket has not always been pointing straight upwards but it has at least remained aloft. No Starship \"no, really, we meant to do that\" explosions, yet.\nAt its merger, the principal appeal of SPCE stock - the stock, not the company - was its scarcity. There was plenty of pent-up demand from investors to put money to work in space stocks traded on the main markets. The 2011 cessation of NASA-owned-and-operated Space Shuttle flights led directly to the introduction of commercial contracts between private-sector US companies such as SpaceX (SPACE), Boeing (BA), Orbital-ATK (subsequently acquired by Northrop Grumman (NOC) - our note on that superb piece of big M&A ishere) and others to take the US space mission onto the next stage. Initially these contracts were limited in ambition and scope; cargo resupply services to the International Space Station. A kind of edge-slowly-into-the-new-world method. Meanwhile, the only way to now fly US astronauts to the ISS was by first sending them to Kazakhstan and then putting them inside a Russian Soyuz launch system and capsule. That's right, a rideshare; a kind of uber-Uber. No, you couldn't make it up. Not exactly the intended outcome of Space Race v1.0. Anyway, SpaceX managed to turn the whole resupply thing into the usual Musk derring-do and theater and with that came a whole new generation of space enthusiasts. Which is just as well, because the thing about national space programs is that they cost a lot of money (Like, a LOT of money). Not for nothing is the upcoming new Boeing launcher called the Senate Launch System, for it has swallowed most of the money the Senate has had to spend these last few years without yet achieving so much as a hop flight. Amusingly, if you Google \"Boeing SLS\", here's what you get:\nSource: Google, Cestrian 'Analysis'\nThis is funny, but not funny. It's indicative of why using new-generation space players is a great idea. It's the same reason you want to run your business by clicking a few times and setting yourself up with a package of Amazon AWS licenses rather than by rotary-dialing your IBM sales rep to buy whatever an AS/400 is called this week. Better, faster, cheaper, easier. Not obsolete prior to its first flight.\nSo, when SPCE first commenced trading it was really the only pureplay game in town if you wanted space exposure and didn't want to pile money into yet another kind of special purpose vehicle (no, not a Tesla Roadster) formed to fund the still-privately-owned SpaceX's losses for the next three weeks. We said at the time that SPCE made for a great speculative vehicle, and the stock price performance since then bears that out.\nHere's the stock chart vs. the Nasdaq (in the shape of its proxy ETF, QQQ) since the IPOA SPAC ticker went live. The stock did nothing much prior to the merger announcement with Virgin Galactic, and it then moved into speculative crazy-Brownian-motion-on-acid territory.\nSource: YCharts.com\nThe first crazy-up spike you see is the exuberance that followed a whole bunch of talking heads on CNBC and everywhere else getting all overexcited about space as a whole. And the second is the exuberance that followed Stock Mommy announcing the planned formation of a space-sector ETF(ARKX). (That a space sector ETF (UFO) , already existed and hasless tractor companiesin it was apparently lost on the investor populace at large). But even if you step back and just look at the overall trend of SPCE stock, it is up. Scary-nausea-inducing-whoa-up-and-down up, but up. In super hot streak for the Nasdaq, it has way beaten the Nasdaq. So the only answer thus far as to, has SPCE been a good stock for long-term investors, is, yes it has been. Assuming you bought on day 1 or on some apocalytpic day since then, rather than at the peak of space fever. But what about going forward?\nIs SPCE Overvalued?\nIf you read our work you'll know that our normal valuation tools are acres of numbers and then plenty of crayons. Financials, charts, water divining rods, we'll try anything. SPCE is in some ways very simple to value. In truth all you need is that chart we posted above. The stock is way, way below peak exuberance level and if the company delivers some live-video-feed theater evidencing their real progress toward tourist revenue flights, we think the stock can move up, maybe a lot. Absent such evidence all we have to see is continual insider selling. We're fairly relaxed about the sales by founder-entrepreneur Richard Branson of Virgin Group fame; he is the earliest investor after all, with money and paper gains tied up there for a long time, so we would expect someone in that position to be part-realizing the huge gains achieved. What bothers us more is the entire sale of the personal stake held by Chairman and principal SPAC executive, Chamath Palihapitiya. This SPAC deal was struck less than two years ago and the optics of the chief sponsor and company Chairman selling his entire personal stake are not good. We salute the incredible gains he made very quickly and indeed have no insight into Palihapitiya's reasons for selling - only he can truly say - but the optics are poor and it weighs on the stock. Again, socionomics stuff. Rich insider guy is selling - stock down. Doesn't mean it \"should\" be. Just means it is. The same goes for the COO resigning. Doesn't mean it's actually bad news for the company or the stock. Just means it's not a good look. The cumulative effect of the delays and the insider sales is a stock which has the potential to truly explode, in a good way, if the company can get its operational chops together. So the question of valuation is to us a very simple one, for once. The spaceplane flies straight and its aim be true, the stock does likewise. But if the spaceplane is parked up? The stock is likely parked up too.\nThreats And Opportunities\nWe might better title this section:Don't Worry, It's Only The Two Richest Guys In The World Coming Up Behind You\nHere's the problem that SPCE has, in our view, and unusually for a stock, its an IRL problem. Generally speaking our view is that reality and stock prices have a causal relationship for brief moments only. Despite our love of numbers we rather subscribe to theSocionomicsparadigm of price formation. Which is to say, the stock is worth what someone will pay you for it, and what they will pay you for it depends as much on whether they've had an argument with their boss as it does your p/e ratio. We jest, but just a little. SPCE, a pre-revenue company which thinks that cashflow is something that shareholders give it to spend, has no fundamentals and canonlyin our view be valued on sentiment thus far. Do you think it's going to be big? Yes? Buy. No? Sell. It's a GME meme stock, before anyone had heard of meme stocks.\nThe challenge is that the manifold delays in test flights and research flights have allowed competitors to come up behind it slowly, and we aren't talking some Lockheed retirees' garage project here. We're talking SpaceX and Blue Origin, which you will know are in essence thegrands projetsof the two folks duelling for the title of Richest Guy In The Universe, Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos respectively. Both have space tourism very much in their sights and, worse, both have above-the-Karman-line tourism in mind. SpaceX is the noisier of the two companies, Blue Origin more restrained, but both have accomplished wonderful things in the last two years. SPACE has now flown two crews to the ISS safely, with one crew already returned; and the second of those crews was flown on a pre-loved Falcon 9 booster. This is remarkable stuff. It seems normal now if you are a space person, and if you get distracted by the daily Musk antics, but it's not normal. It's incredible. And along the way they did it for a lot less money than Boeing, which has yet to even complete a successful uncrewed test flight of this nature. Blue Origin (BORGN) has completed multiple uncrewed vertical-ascent-and-descent test flights of their capsule and booster. We don't know when their first tourist revenue flights will be, but then we don't know when SPCE's first tourist revenue flights will be, either.\nThe experience offered by SPACE and BORGN is set to exceed that offered by SPCE by dint of the altitude they reach. Ultimately SPACE will be able to fly tourists to the ISS without too much further ado; and BORGN will be able to lift them much higher than SPCE with a longer view of the Earth-from-above. We don't know the ticket price for either but our guess is that if you have $250k++ to spend with SPCE you probably have $500k++ to spend with one of the other two providers. What we are seeing here is that operational delays at the company are holding back the stock. And every day that SPCE doesn't deliver successful test flights, research flights or indeed a revenue flight is one more day that Tweedledum and Tweedledee are gaining ground on Virgin Galactic. You may have noticed that neither Musk nor Bezos like to lose; and we don't think they are going to like to lose here either.\nIs It Worth Investing In Virgin Galactic?\nBuying Virgin Galactic stock cannot be called investing in any sense of the word. It was, is, and shall for a while remain, the essence of speculation. The rewards could be huge, or your loss total. (Or more than total if you like to play with complicated and/or leveraged securities. Good luck to you if you're skilled with such things).\nThe decision for us is simple: if in your judgment the operations are going to come together with enough time before the Jeff and Elon Show starts, this is a going-up stock in our view. If you think delays will continue to abound, the name is likely best avoided in our view.\nWe ourselves do not currently hold the stock in staff personal accounts, though we have done so many times on and off. We would like to see an upturn in real-world developments and hopefully a cessation of insider selling. Some insiderbuyingwould be nice, and at this price that's not a silly thing to say; in our coverage universe we've seen the CEO of Maxar Technologies (MAXR) evidence great confidence in the stock at a couple weak moments by spending actual money on buying shares personally. We know that by not owning the name we might miss out on some big moves, but if the move up is real, driven by real operational success, it will be a long move up that we can join in its early stages, it won't be a one-day thing - and that's fine by us. If you are braver fliers than us, we salute you!","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":103687485,"gmtCreate":1619777635647,"gmtModify":1704272218558,"author":{"id":"3582291091769891","authorId":"3582291091769891","name":"RichTee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d1b850ce27aa1d55b877917181b0ccd","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582291091769891","idStr":"3582291091769891"},"htmlText":"Short&nbsp;","listText":"Short&nbsp;","text":"Short","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103687485","repostId":1147769151,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":103611091,"gmtCreate":1619775620713,"gmtModify":1704272193150,"author":{"id":"3559283513621894","authorId":"3559283513621894","name":"Sap","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a00e2718679bd499f27764a78342e5c","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3559283513621894","idStr":"3559283513621894"},"htmlText":"Yes so you can&nbsp;short","listText":"Yes so you can&nbsp;short","text":"Yes so you can short","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103611091","repostId":1147769151,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":103639314,"gmtCreate":1619774443538,"gmtModify":1704272176886,"author":{"id":"3562150941808297","authorId":"3562150941808297","name":"KHYAP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/134bef1736613cccadcb5091adcc32aa","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3562150941808297","idStr":"3562150941808297"},"htmlText":"That for sure&nbsp;","listText":"That for sure&nbsp;","text":"That for sure","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103639314","repostId":1147769151,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":103639971,"gmtCreate":1619774439693,"gmtModify":1704272176563,"author":{"id":"3582094048004898","authorId":"3582094048004898","name":"idkwhatimdoi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582094048004898","idStr":"3582094048004898"},"htmlText":"reply to me pleasee","listText":"reply to me pleasee","text":"reply to me pleasee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103639971","repostId":1147769151,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4181488,"gmtCreate":1619774868515,"gmtModify":1680786346544,"authorId":3571554929070255,"author":{"id":3571554929070255,"idStr":"3571554929070255","authorId":3571554929070255,"name":"Ealmighty","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f4ef8b8b8f69bb844b783e859a1ea48","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":103639971,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done please response to my comment thanks","text":"Done please response to my comment thanks","html":"Done please response to my comment 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all down&nbsp;","listText":"Spacs all down&nbsp;","text":"Spacs all down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103696321","repostId":1147769151,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":31,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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