On December 19, as major central banks' policies became clearer, market pricing of macroeconomic uncertainties returned to rationality. Bitcoin's rebound above $87,000 following the interest rate decision was not coincidental but rather a result of liquidity expectations and risk appetite. The simultaneous weakening of the Japanese yen further confirmed that capital has not significantly flowed into safe-haven assets.
From a policy perspective, the Bank of Japan raised its short-term interest rate to 0.75%. While this move holds historical significance domestically, it remains relatively low in the global interest rate system. With real interest rates still negative, the financial environment has not fundamentally shifted. Markets are inclined to view this rate hike as a moderate calibration rather than the start of a tightening cycle.
Market data shows that after the announcement, the yen retreated to around 156 against the dollar, while Bitcoin climbed from $86,000 to $87,500 before consolidating near $87,000. This suggests investors had already positioned themselves in advance, with expectations fully priced in. The buildup of long yen positions has limited further short-term appreciation, dampening the positive impact of the rate hike on the currency.
Discussions about carry trades remain a market focus. Some argue that sustained rate hikes could erode the yen's funding advantage, triggering a systemic correction in risk assets. However, significant interest rate differentials between the yen and other major currencies persist. Until this gap narrows, the carry trade logic remains intact, and risk assets are unlikely to face sustained pressure.
From a longer-term perspective, Bitcoin's performance reflects its growing role as a hedge against inflation and currency credibility shifts. With traditional monetary policy still relatively accommodative, digital assets and risk assets will continue to move in tandem. Bitcoin's price fluctuations depend more on global liquidity expectations than isolated central bank actions.
Overall, the key takeaway is that markets are becoming more adept at digesting policy shifts. When expectations are well-anticipated, rate hikes alone do not necessarily trigger sharp volatility. As investors adjust to the new rate environment, assets like Bitcoin may find new valuation anchors amid fluctuations, while global risk appetite maintains a dynamic balance between caution and opportunity.
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