Abstract
Natera, Inc. will report fourth-quarter results on February 26, 2026, Post Market, with investors watching whether preliminary revenue strength and margin gains translate into an earnings beat and improved loss trajectory.Market Forecast
Consensus points to fourth-quarter revenue of $592.42 million, up 38.24% year over year, with adjusted EPS at -$0.52, a 32.97% year-over-year decline, and EBIT at -$78.89 million, reflecting a 36.77% year-over-year deterioration; gross profit margin and net margin forecasts are not provided in the available data. Based on the company’s own preliminary update in January, Natera projects approximately $660.00 million revenue for the fourth quarter, indicating about 39.00% year-over-year growth and signaling broad-based strength across its product portfolio and margin expansion.The main business is anchored by diagnostic products, and management flagged volume, revenue, and gross margin gains in the quarter, reinforcing a constructive mix and scale story into 2026. Oncology (Signatera) remains the most promising growth engine, with the company highlighting record performance to close 2025 and guiding full-year 2025 revenues to approximately $2.30 billion; segment-specific revenue and year-over-year rates were not disclosed, but company-level fourth-quarter revenue increased by about 39.00% year over year.
Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter, Natera, Inc. delivered revenue of $592.18 million, up 34.66% year over year, with a gross profit margin of 64.91%, a GAAP net loss attributable to the parent company of $87.54 million, a net profit margin of -14.78%, and adjusted EPS of -$0.64, down 146.15% year over year.A key highlight was sequential improvement in net profit, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 13.27%, indicating that the loss narrowed compared with the prior period. In the main business, Products contributed $590.20 million, accounting for 99.66% of total revenue, while overall revenue grew 34.66% year over year, evidencing strong test volumes, improving reimbursement, and operational scale benefits.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main Business Momentum and Margin Trajectory
Diagnostic products continue to drive the top line, and the preliminary update for the fourth quarter points to a larger revenue base than consensus, supported by broad gains in test volumes and pricing economics. The gross profit margin saw tangible improvement into year-end, as indicated by management’s commentary, and the reported 64.91% gross margin in the previous quarter provides a constructive baseline for modeling fourth-quarter mix and throughput. The path of net losses remains an important consideration; consensus expects adjusted EPS at -$0.52 and EBIT at -$78.89 million, yet sequential improvement in net profit last quarter and volume-driven leverage suggest losses may narrow faster than feared if the preliminary revenue strength ends up translating to operating efficiency. Management’s emphasis on scale, workflow optimization, and payer engagement is critical to sustaining margin gains, especially given reimbursement dynamics and continued investment in clinical evidence. As Natera, Inc. enters 2026 with a larger installed customer base and improving test economics, quarterly gross margin variability is likely to track mix shifts within oncology and organ health and the balance between growth and cost discipline.Most Promising Segment: Oncology (Signatera)
Oncology, particularly Signatera for molecular residual disease monitoring, remains the central growth engine, and the company reported record performance for this franchise in the fourth quarter. On February 2, 2026, Natera submitted a premarket approval application for Signatera CDx in muscle-invasive bladder cancer following phase 3 evidence, a milestone that underscores the maturity of its clinical validation pathway and potential for label-enabled adoption. Beyond the regulatory step, the franchise benefits from stronger clinical utilization trends, payer traction, and expanding indications that deepen demand and reinforce test longevity across patient monitoring intervals, translating into recurring revenue attributes. From a modeling standpoint, while the company did not disclose segment-level revenue or year-over-year rates for oncology, the whole-company fourth-quarter preliminary revenue of approximately $660.00 million and year-over-year growth of about 39.00% indicate meaningful contribution from Signatera, consistent with management’s commentary on volume-led growth and gross margin expansion. The integration of Signatera with treatment decision workflows and clinical trial collaborations strengthens its demand profile, and regulatory progress can catalyze broader clinician adoption and, over time, further normalization of reimbursement, reducing friction in revenue recognition. This set of dynamics positions oncology to sustain elevated growth into 2026 even as operating investments continue, with scope for incremental margin leverage once the scale effects are fully realized.Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The first driver is top-line outperformance versus consensus. Company preliminary revenue of approximately $660.00 million for the fourth quarter compares favorably to the market’s $592.42 million estimate, and investors will scrutinize the bridge between the preliminary figure and reported revenue—including revenue recognition cycles and payer mix—to assess the magnitude of the potential beat. The second driver is margin and loss trajectory. The prior quarter’s 64.91% gross margin and sequential net profit improvement of 13.27% set the stage for further operating leverage if test volumes and mix support lower unit costs; consensus still expects an adjusted EPS of -$0.52 and EBIT of -$78.89 million, so visibility on gross margin drivers and expense discipline will be decisive for the stock’s reaction. The third driver centers on clinical and regulatory milestones. The PMA submission for Signatera CDx in muscle-invasive bladder cancer provides a tangible catalyst that can influence utilization, payer behavior, and channel engagement. Additionally, completion of enrollment in a Prospera Heart study adds momentum to organ health initiatives by progressing toward potential non-invasive monitoring use, which can expand the addressable base and enhance recurring revenue characteristics. Finally, management’s January update calling for approximately $2.30 billion in full-year 2025 revenue—above prior outlook—combined with reported cash inflows exceeding $100.00 million in 2025, strengthens confidence in near-term operating resilience and supports a narrative of improving capital efficiency as Natera, Inc. scales.Analyst Opinions
Across the views collected within the period from January 1, 2026 to February 19, 2026, the ratio is decisively bullish, with 100% of published opinions in our set supporting a positive stance and no bearish calls. Citigroup initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $300 price target on January 7, 2026, underscoring confidence in Natera, Inc.’s revenue durability and the commercial runway of its oncology platform. Analysts also indicated that the average rating is Buy with a mean price target of $253.45 as of early January, reflecting broader constructive sentiment on margin development and pipeline-supported volume growth.The bullish perspective centers on three pillars: anticipated top-line beat, improving margin profile, and strengthening clinical-validation moat. The preliminary fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $660.00 million implies an outperformance versus consensus of $592.42 million, and investors are likely to credit management’s guidance discipline and volume capture across oncology, organ health, and women’s health. Margin quality is expected to benefit from improved test economics and operational scale; the prior quarter’s 64.91% gross margin and sequential improvement in net profit give analysts confidence that gross margin expansion is not solely volume-related but also tied to structural efficiencies and payer normalization. On the clinical side, PMA submission for Signatera CDx in muscle-invasive bladder cancer signifies an important step toward label-enabled deployment; such a status can enhance clinical uptake, influence reimbursement, and strengthen long-term revenue visibility. The completion of enrollment for the Prospera Heart monitoring study further bolsters the organ health narrative by advancing evidence for non-invasive rejection monitoring, an area where recurring testing can add scale and enhance margin leverage once adopted broadly.
From a valuation perspective, positive analysts view the near-term setup as defined by a compelling potential for revenue surprise and a credible path to narrowing losses over the next several quarters. They highlight adjusted EPS at -$0.52 for the fourth quarter and EBIT at -$78.89 million as transitory reflections of growth investments, arguing that incremental gross margin gains and mix evolution toward oncology can progressively reduce the gap to breakeven even without significant pricing changes. Moreover, Natera, Inc.’s preliminary signal that full-year 2025 revenues should be approximately $2.30 billion and cash inflows exceeded $100.00 million supports a more constructive narrative on capital allocation and operating efficiency, which can sustain investor confidence through near-term earnings volatility. Taken together, the majority view expects the upcoming print to validate the revenue momentum and provide a clearer picture of margin drivers, deepening the conviction that Natera, Inc. can sustain premium growth while moving steadily along the profitability curve.
Market Forecast
Consensus expects fourth-quarter revenue of $592.42 million (+38.24% year over year), adjusted EPS of -$0.52 (-32.97% year over year), and EBIT of -$78.89 million (-36.77% year over year); quarter-specific gross profit margin and net margin forecasts are not available. Management’s preliminary update points to approximately $660.00 million in fourth-quarter revenue, about 39.00% growth year over year, underpinned by broad-based test demand and margin expansion.The company’s product-centric main business has shown healthy momentum, and management has indicated strong gains in volumes, revenue, and gross margins in the quarter. Oncology remains the most promising growth pillar with record performance in the fourth quarter; while segment-level revenue and year-over-year data are not disclosed, company-level fourth-quarter revenue rose about 39.00% year over year.
Last Quarter Review
Natera, Inc. reported prior-quarter revenue of $592.18 million (+34.66% year over year), a gross profit margin of 64.91%, a GAAP net loss attributable to the parent company of $87.54 million, a net profit margin of -14.78%, and adjusted EPS of -$0.64 (-146.15% year over year).One notable highlight was quarter-on-quarter improvement in net profit of 13.27%, indicating the loss narrowed versus the prior period. The Products business contributed $590.20 million, 99.66% of total revenue, while overall revenue increased 34.66% year over year, reflecting stronger test volumes and payer dynamics.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main Business Momentum and Margin Trajectory
Natera, Inc.’s core product suite is positioned to deliver another period of strong top-line growth, as indicated by the company’s preliminary fourth-quarter update. The previous quarter’s 64.91% gross margin evidences a durable gross margin base, and management’s indication of margin improvement in the fourth quarter suggests a positive mix evolution and process efficiencies. For the P&L, consensus still models adjusted EPS at -$0.52 and EBIT at -$78.89 million, but sequential improvement in net profit last quarter and preliminary revenue strength argue for a narrower loss trajectory if operational scale and mix-shift dynamics proceed as expected. Investors will closely evaluate pricing stability, test throughput, and the balance of growth investments against operational leverage to gauge sustainability of margin trends. The combination of rising volumes, strengthened reimbursement pathways, and maturing operations underpins a constructive view on margin progression through 2026.Most Promising Segment: Oncology (Signatera)
Signatera’s strong fourth-quarter performance is central to Natera, Inc.’s growth narrative and appears to be the key factor behind preliminary revenue upside. The February 2 PMA submission for Signatera CDx in muscle-invasive bladder cancer is a milestone that can expand clinical utility and help normalize reimbursement pathways for a broader patient population. As clinical evidence grows and label-enabled deployment progresses, adoption in monitoring and therapeutic decision-making workflows can deepen the recurring revenue characteristics of oncology testing. The fourth-quarter preliminary revenue of approximately $660.00 million and about 39.00% year-over-year growth are consistent with management’s commentary that oncology, alongside organ health and women’s health, delivered record gains in volume and margin. Over the next several quarters, the oncology mix will likely exert a meaningful influence on reported gross margins and cash generation, as higher-value tests scale and operational efficiencies compound. With recurring monitoring intervals and expanding indications, oncology’s contribution provides a credible foundation for sustained growth, even as the company invests to broaden its clinical and commercial footprint.Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
Revenue delivery and the magnitude of the potential beat are the primary near-term drivers. Company preliminary revenue of approximately $660.00 million contrasts with $592.42 million consensus, and investors will watch for granularity on volume growth, payer mix, and revenue recognition to assess durability. Margin quality and operating leverage constitute the second key driver. Last quarter’s 64.91% gross margin and sequential improvement in net profit by 13.27% point to a healthier operating profile, and confirmation of margin gains in the reported quarter would support the view that losses can narrow steadily despite continued growth investments. Regulatory and clinical milestones are the third driver. The Signatera CDx PMA submission strengthens the franchise and can catalyze greater clinical adoption, while Prospera Heart’s enrollment completion advances organ health progress toward potential non-invasive rejection monitoring, offering future top-line scale and margin leverage. Management’s full-year 2025 revenue indication of approximately $2.30 billion and reported cash inflows above $100.00 million further bolster confidence in execution and capital efficiency, which can temper earnings volatility and support multiple stability as the company transitions toward improved profitability.Analyst Opinions
The collected views in our period are unanimously bullish, reflecting a 100% positive ratio without bearish calls. Citigroup initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $300 price target on January 7, 2026, highlighting the durability of Natera, Inc.’s growth drivers and the potential for continued revenue outperformance. Analysts also indicated a Buy-average stance with a mean price target of $253.45 as of early January, suggesting confidence in the earnings setup and a favorable view on the pipeline and margin trajectory.The majority perspective expects the fourth-quarter print to validate the preliminary outperformance, highlighting recurring demand for oncology testing, margin expansion from scale, and progressing regulatory milestones. With consensus modeling adjusted EPS at -$0.52 and EBIT at -$78.89 million, the bullish camp sees operating losses as reflective of growth investments rather than structural constraints, expecting over time that gross margin gains and mix shifts can bring improved operating leverage. The PMA submission for Signatera CDx and Prospera Heart trial progress support an incremental case for adoption and reimbursement clarity. Combining the preliminary fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $660.00 million and full-year guidance of approximately $2.30 billion with demonstrated cash inflows above $100.00 million enhances the narrative of growth quality and improving capital efficiency. In sum, the prevailing analyst stance anticipates a constructive report, with the core debate shifting toward the pace of margin and loss improvement as revenue scale continues to advance.
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