高盛：美联储预计12月正式“紧缩”，该如何应对

华尔街见闻2021-08-03

7月的美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议已经结束。美联储主席鲍威尔向市场保证，不会立即调整月度资产购买。委员会表示在实现就业和通胀目标方面已经取得了进展，基调较6月会议变化不大。市场反应也相对平静，10年期美债收益率自会议以来仅上涨一个基点，标普500指数也变化不大。 9月暗示、12月正式宣布在Taper时间点上，高盛预测认为，美联储将在9月的FOMC会议上首次暗示开始缩减购债规模，到12...

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Win 88
2021-08-03
Win 88
❤️
Win 88
2021-08-03
Win 88
???
- Christy Sak:
  ?
makr
2021-08-03
makr
這麼慢嗎

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell assured markets that there would be no immediate adjustment to monthly asset purchases. The committee said it had made progress in achieving employment and inflation targets, and its tone has changed little from its June meeting. The market reaction was also relatively quiet, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising only one basis point since the meeting and the S&P 500 index not changing much.Hinted in September, officially announced in DecemberAt the Taper point in time, Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will hint for the first time at the September FOMC meeting that it will begin to reduce the scale of bond purchases, and officially announce a reduction of $120 billion per month at the December meeting. In terms of the speed of tapering, Goldman Sachs believes that the Federal Reserve will reduce the scale of bond purchases at each meeting starting in 2022, reducing Treasury Bond by $10 billion and MBS by $5 billion at each meeting.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18506ee92a11d0972a8e3881025b29e3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Goldman Sachs emphasized that investors may regard the Federal Reserve's first announcement of tapering its bond purchase program as one of the signs that a rate hike is about to begin.Most studies show that the impact of \"quantitative easing\" (QE) on the market is mainly through the \"signal\" effect and \"stock\" effect on the Fed's future holding path expectations.Rather than influencing the market through the \"flow\" effects associated with asset purchases.In terms of rate hike signals, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously stated at a press conference that under \"ideal\" circumstances, the Federal Open Market Committee would not start a rate hike before QE is completely withdrawn, because it would send contradictory policy signals to the market. Goldman Sachs expects that,The Fed will pause for a period of time after the tapering ends before starting the rate hike process.'Taper tantrum' has limited impactHistorically, the \"taper tantrum\" of 2013 caused a huge shock to the market-but the related impact lasted only for a very short time.Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress in 2013 that the Federal Reserve \"may reduce the pace of purchases in the next few meetings\". This triggered violent market turmoil, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounding by 40 basis points in 5 days; The S&P 500 is down 5% over the same period. Growth and cyclical stocks performed poorly, with both the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 lagging the S&P 500.The sharp volatility in the market shows that investors are very worried about the premature removal of monetary support measures, and the possible rate hike that will follow. But these fears were subsequently falsified, and the market subsequently experienced a strong rebound. In the two months since the stock market crash, the S&P 500 rebounded 5%, led by raw materials, consumer discretionary and health care stocks. Growth stocks have outperformed value stocks and cyclical stocks have outperformed defensive stocks as the Federal Reserve reaffirms its commitment to accommodative policy.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f33578a9fda7b87e43033792cfa343e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Growth expectations are more importantGoldman Sachs analysis said that from a quantitative perspective,The Fed can indirectly affect the market by affecting the equity risk premium (ERP) through the size of its balance sheet. Specific influencing factors include break-even inflation, Fed balance sheet, policy uncertainty, and consumer confidence.Investors are now aware of the trend of tapering bond purchases. But Goldman Sachs said that while tapering bond purchases could put pressure on stock valuations,However, growth expectations represented by break-even inflation have a greater impact on the stock market and are more critical to the future path of changes in stock valuations.Goldman Sachs said that for stocks, the \"signal\" effect before the change in the size of the Fed's balance sheet may be more important than the actual change itself. This is similar to what happened in 2013. At the impact factor level, changes in the size of the Fed's balance sheet, rather than changes in the speed of change, seem to be more important to the rate of return. Cyclical Factor Changes in the size of the Fed's balance sheet are positively correlated with the rate of change.Goldman Sachs reminds investors that the correlation between the growing Fed balance sheet and the valuation returns and size of U.S. stocks is the most positive. These relationships may reflect the fact that changes in the size of the Fed's balance sheet are related to specific market and economic circumstances.","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs: The Fed expects to officially \"tighten\" in December, how to respond</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs: The Fed expects to officially \"tighten\" in December, how to respond\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-08-03 21:14\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe July Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has ended. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell assured markets that there would be no immediate adjustment to monthly asset purchases. The committee said it had made progress in achieving employment and inflation targets, and its tone has changed little from its June meeting. The market reaction was also relatively quiet, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising only one basis point since the meeting and the S&P 500 index not changing much.Hinted in September, officially announced in DecemberAt the Taper point in time, Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will hint for the first time at the September FOMC meeting that it will begin to reduce the scale of bond purchases, and officially announce a reduction of $120 billion per month at the December meeting. In terms of the speed of tapering, Goldman Sachs believes that the Federal Reserve will reduce the scale of bond purchases at each meeting starting in 2022, reducing Treasury Bond by $10 billion and MBS by $5 billion at each meeting.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18506ee92a11d0972a8e3881025b29e3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Goldman Sachs emphasized that investors may regard the Federal Reserve's first announcement of tapering its bond purchase program as one of the signs that a rate hike is about to begin.Most studies show that the impact of \"quantitative easing\" (QE) on the market is mainly through the \"signal\" effect and \"stock\" effect on the Fed's future holding path expectations.Rather than influencing the market through the \"flow\" effects associated with asset purchases.In terms of rate hike signals, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously stated at a press conference that under \"ideal\" circumstances, the Federal Open Market Committee would not start a rate hike before QE is completely withdrawn, because it would send contradictory policy signals to the market. Goldman Sachs expects that,The Fed will pause for a period of time after the tapering ends before starting the rate hike process.'Taper tantrum' has limited impactHistorically, the \"taper tantrum\" of 2013 caused a huge shock to the market-but the related impact lasted only for a very short time.Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress in 2013 that the Federal Reserve \"may reduce the pace of purchases in the next few meetings\". This triggered violent market turmoil, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounding by 40 basis points in 5 days; The S&P 500 is down 5% over the same period. Growth and cyclical stocks performed poorly, with both the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 lagging the S&P 500.The sharp volatility in the market shows that investors are very worried about the premature removal of monetary support measures, and the possible rate hike that will follow. But these fears were subsequently falsified, and the market subsequently experienced a strong rebound. In the two months since the stock market crash, the S&P 500 rebounded 5%, led by raw materials, consumer discretionary and health care stocks. Growth stocks have outperformed value stocks and cyclical stocks have outperformed defensive stocks as the Federal Reserve reaffirms its commitment to accommodative policy.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f33578a9fda7b87e43033792cfa343e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Growth expectations are more importantGoldman Sachs analysis said that from a quantitative perspective,The Fed can indirectly affect the market by affecting the equity risk premium (ERP) through the size of its balance sheet. Specific influencing factors include break-even inflation, Fed balance sheet, policy uncertainty, and consumer confidence.Investors are now aware of the trend of tapering bond purchases. But Goldman Sachs said that while tapering bond purchases could put pressure on stock valuations,However, growth expectations represented by break-even inflation have a greater impact on the stock market and are more critical to the future path of changes in stock valuations.Goldman Sachs said that for stocks, the \"signal\" effect before the change in the size of the Fed's balance sheet may be more important than the actual change itself. This is similar to what happened in 2013. At the impact factor level, changes in the size of the Fed's balance sheet, rather than changes in the speed of change, seem to be more important to the rate of return. Cyclical Factor Changes in the size of the Fed's balance sheet are positively correlated with the rate of change.Goldman Sachs reminds investors that the correlation between the growing Fed balance sheet and the valuation returns and size of U.S. stocks is the most positive. These relationships may reflect the fact that changes in the size of the Fed's balance sheet are related to specific market and economic circumstances.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637005\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637005","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1171567451","content_text":"7月的美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议已经结束。美联储主席鲍威尔向市场保证，不会立即调整月度资产购买。委员会表示在实现就业和通胀目标方面已经取得了进展，基调较6月会议变化不大。市场反应也相对平静，10年期美债收益率自会议以来仅上涨一个基点，标普500指数也变化不大。\n9月暗示、12月正式宣布\n在Taper时间点上，高盛预测认为，美联储将在9月的FOMC会议上首次暗示开始缩减购债规模，到12月会议上正式宣布减少每月1200亿美元的购买规模。在缩减速度方面，高盛认为美联储将从2022年开始每次会议减少购债规模，每次会议减少100亿美元国债和50亿美元的MBS。\n\n高盛强调，投资者可能将美联储首次宣布的缩减购债计划视为即将开始加息的信号之一。\n大多数研究表明，“量化宽松”（QE）对市场的影响主要是通过对美联储未来持有路径预期的“信号”效应和“股票”效应，而不是通过与资产购买相关的“流量”效应（“flow” effects）来影响市场。\n在加息信号上，美联储主席鲍威尔此前在新闻发布会上表示，在“理想”状况下，联邦公开市场委员会不会在QE完全退出前开始加息，因为这将向市场释放矛盾的政策信号。高盛预计，美联储在缩减结束后将暂停一段时间，然后再开启加息进程。\n“缩减恐慌”影响有限\n在历史上，2013年的“缩减恐慌”（taper tantrum）对市场造成了巨大的冲击——但相关影响只持续了非常短的时间。\n前美联储主席伯南克2013年在国会上表示，美联储“可能在接下来的几次会议上降低购买的步伐”。这引发剧烈的市场动荡，10年期美债收益率的5天反弹40个基点；标准普尔500指数同期下跌了5%。成长股和周期股表现较差，纳斯达克100指数和罗素2000指数都落后于标准普尔500指数。\n市场剧烈的波动表明，投资者非常担心货币支持措施过早取消，以及随后可能的加息。但这些恐慌随后被证伪，市场随后经历强劲反弹。在股市暴跌后的两个月里，标普500指数反弹了5%，原材料、非必需消费品和医疗保健类股领涨。随着美联储重申其对宽松政策的承诺，增长型股票的表现优于价值型股票，周期性股票的表现优于防御型股票。\n\n增长预期更重要\n高盛分析表示，从定量角度，美联储可以通过资产负债表规模影响股票风险溢价(ERP)来间接影响市场，具体影响因素包括盈亏平衡通胀、美联储资产负债表、政策不确定性和消费者信心。\n目前投资者已经意识到缩减购债的趋势。但高盛表示，虽然缩减购债可能会对股票估值造成压力，但以盈亏平衡通胀为代表的增长预期对股市的影响更大，对股票估值的未来的变化路径更为关键。\n高盛表示，对股市而言，美联储资产负债表规模变化之前的“信号”效应可能比实际变化本身更重要。这与2013年发生的情况类似。在影响因子层面，美联储资产负债表规模的变化，而非变动速度的变化，似乎对回报率更为重要。周期性因子美联储资产负债表规模的变化和变化率呈正相关。\n高盛提示投资者，不断增长的美联储资产负债表与美股估值回报和规模大小之际的相关性是最积极的。这些关系可能反映了这样一个事实，即美联储资产负债表规模的变化与特定的市场和经济环境有关。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":807197830,"gmtCreate":1628004416320,"gmtModify":1703499552806,"author":{"id":"4087989567579910","authorId":"4087989567579910","name":"Win 88","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e02b8f04109e6b3e4cd27d75f63dbe24","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4087989567579910","idStr":"4087989567579910"},"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807197830","repostId":1171567451,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171567451","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627996459,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171567451?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-03 21:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Goldman Sachs: The Fed expects to officially \"tighten\" in December, how to respond","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171567451","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储将从2022年开始每次会议减少购债规模。","content":"The July Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has ended. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell assured markets that there would be no immediate adjustment to monthly asset purchases. The committee said it had made progress in achieving employment and inflation targets, and its tone has changed little from its June meeting. The market reaction was also relatively quiet, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising only one basis point since the meeting and the S&P 500 index not changing much.Hinted in September, officially announced in DecemberAt the Taper point in time, Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will hint for the first time at the September FOMC meeting that it will begin to reduce the scale of bond purchases, and officially announce a reduction of $120 billion per month at the December meeting. In terms of the speed of tapering, Goldman Sachs believes that the Federal Reserve will reduce the scale of bond purchases at each meeting starting in 2022, reducing Treasury Bond by $10 billion and MBS by $5 billion at each meeting.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18506ee92a11d0972a8e3881025b29e3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Goldman Sachs emphasized that investors may regard the Federal Reserve's first announcement of tapering its bond purchase program as one of the signs that a rate hike is about to begin.Most studies show that the impact of \"quantitative easing\" (QE) on the market is mainly through the \"signal\" effect and \"stock\" effect on the Fed's future holding path expectations.Rather than influencing the market through the \"flow\" effects associated with asset purchases.In terms of rate hike signals, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously stated at a press conference that under \"ideal\" circumstances, the Federal Open Market Committee would not start a rate hike before QE is completely withdrawn, because it would send contradictory policy signals to the market. Goldman Sachs expects that,The Fed will pause for a period of time after the tapering ends before starting the rate hike process.'Taper tantrum' has limited impactHistorically, the \"taper tantrum\" of 2013 caused a huge shock to the market-but the related impact lasted only for a very short time.Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress in 2013 that the Federal Reserve \"may reduce the pace of purchases in the next few meetings\". This triggered violent market turmoil, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounding by 40 basis points in 5 days; The S&P 500 is down 5% over the same period. Growth and cyclical stocks performed poorly, with both the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 lagging the S&P 500.The sharp volatility in the market shows that investors are very worried about the premature removal of monetary support measures, and the possible rate hike that will follow. But these fears were subsequently falsified, and the market subsequently experienced a strong rebound. In the two months since the stock market crash, the S&P 500 rebounded 5%, led by raw materials, consumer discretionary and health care stocks. Growth stocks have outperformed value stocks and cyclical stocks have outperformed defensive stocks as the Federal Reserve reaffirms its commitment to accommodative policy.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f33578a9fda7b87e43033792cfa343e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Growth expectations are more importantGoldman Sachs analysis said that from a quantitative perspective,The Fed can indirectly affect the market by affecting the equity risk premium (ERP) through the size of its balance sheet. Specific influencing factors include break-even inflation, Fed balance sheet, policy uncertainty, and consumer confidence.Investors are now aware of the trend of tapering bond purchases. But Goldman Sachs said that while tapering bond purchases could put pressure on stock valuations,However, growth expectations represented by break-even inflation have a greater impact on the stock market and are more critical to the future path of changes in stock valuations.Goldman Sachs said that for stocks, the \"signal\" effect before the change in the size of the Fed's balance sheet may be more important than the actual change itself. This is similar to what happened in 2013. At the impact factor level, changes in the size of the Fed's balance sheet, rather than changes in the speed of change, seem to be more important to the rate of return. Cyclical Factor Changes in the size of the Fed's balance sheet are positively correlated with the rate of change.Goldman Sachs reminds investors that the correlation between the growing Fed balance sheet and the valuation returns and size of U.S. stocks is the most positive. These relationships may reflect the fact that changes in the size of the Fed's balance sheet are related to specific market and economic circumstances.","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs: The Fed expects to officially \"tighten\" in December, how to respond</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs: The Fed expects to officially \"tighten\" in December, how to respond\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-08-03 21:14\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe July Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has ended. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell assured markets that there would be no immediate adjustment to monthly asset purchases. The committee said it had made progress in achieving employment and inflation targets, and its tone has changed little from its June meeting. The market reaction was also relatively quiet, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising only one basis point since the meeting and the S&P 500 index not changing much.Hinted in September, officially announced in DecemberAt the Taper point in time, Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will hint for the first time at the September FOMC meeting that it will begin to reduce the scale of bond purchases, and officially announce a reduction of $120 billion per month at the December meeting. In terms of the speed of tapering, Goldman Sachs believes that the Federal Reserve will reduce the scale of bond purchases at each meeting starting in 2022, reducing Treasury Bond by $10 billion and MBS by $5 billion at each meeting.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18506ee92a11d0972a8e3881025b29e3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Goldman Sachs emphasized that investors may regard the Federal Reserve's first announcement of tapering its bond purchase program as one of the signs that a rate hike is about to begin.Most studies show that the impact of \"quantitative easing\" (QE) on the market is mainly through the \"signal\" effect and \"stock\" effect on the Fed's future holding path expectations.Rather than influencing the market through the \"flow\" effects associated with asset purchases.In terms of rate hike signals, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously stated at a press conference that under \"ideal\" circumstances, the Federal Open Market Committee would not start a rate hike before QE is completely withdrawn, because it would send contradictory policy signals to the market. Goldman Sachs expects that,The Fed will pause for a period of time after the tapering ends before starting the rate hike process.'Taper tantrum' has limited impactHistorically, the \"taper tantrum\" of 2013 caused a huge shock to the market-but the related impact lasted only for a very short time.Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress in 2013 that the Federal Reserve \"may reduce the pace of purchases in the next few meetings\". This triggered violent market turmoil, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounding by 40 basis points in 5 days; The S&P 500 is down 5% over the same period. Growth and cyclical stocks performed poorly, with both the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 lagging the S&P 500.The sharp volatility in the market shows that investors are very worried about the premature removal of monetary support measures, and the possible rate hike that will follow. But these fears were subsequently falsified, and the market subsequently experienced a strong rebound. In the two months since the stock market crash, the S&P 500 rebounded 5%, led by raw materials, consumer discretionary and health care stocks. Growth stocks have outperformed value stocks and cyclical stocks have outperformed defensive stocks as the Federal Reserve reaffirms its commitment to accommodative policy.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f33578a9fda7b87e43033792cfa343e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Growth expectations are more importantGoldman Sachs analysis said that from a quantitative perspective,The Fed can indirectly affect the market by affecting the equity risk premium (ERP) through the size of its balance sheet. Specific influencing factors include break-even inflation, Fed balance sheet, policy uncertainty, and consumer confidence.Investors are now aware of the trend of tapering bond purchases. But Goldman Sachs said that while tapering bond purchases could put pressure on stock valuations,However, growth expectations represented by break-even inflation have a greater impact on the stock market and are more critical to the future path of changes in stock valuations.Goldman Sachs said that for stocks, the \"signal\" effect before the change in the size of the Fed's balance sheet may be more important than the actual change itself. This is similar to what happened in 2013. At the impact factor level, changes in the size of the Fed's balance sheet, rather than changes in the speed of change, seem to be more important to the rate of return. Cyclical Factor Changes in the size of the Fed's balance sheet are positively correlated with the rate of change.Goldman Sachs reminds investors that the correlation between the growing Fed balance sheet and the valuation returns and size of U.S. stocks is the most positive. These relationships may reflect the fact that changes in the size of the Fed's balance sheet are related to specific market and economic circumstances.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637005\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637005","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1171567451","content_text":"7月的美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议已经结束。美联储主席鲍威尔向市场保证，不会立即调整月度资产购买。委员会表示在实现就业和通胀目标方面已经取得了进展，基调较6月会议变化不大。市场反应也相对平静，10年期美债收益率自会议以来仅上涨一个基点，标普500指数也变化不大。\n9月暗示、12月正式宣布\n在Taper时间点上，高盛预测认为，美联储将在9月的FOMC会议上首次暗示开始缩减购债规模，到12月会议上正式宣布减少每月1200亿美元的购买规模。在缩减速度方面，高盛认为美联储将从2022年开始每次会议减少购债规模，每次会议减少100亿美元国债和50亿美元的MBS。\n\n高盛强调，投资者可能将美联储首次宣布的缩减购债计划视为即将开始加息的信号之一。\n大多数研究表明，“量化宽松”（QE）对市场的影响主要是通过对美联储未来持有路径预期的“信号”效应和“股票”效应，而不是通过与资产购买相关的“流量”效应（“flow” effects）来影响市场。\n在加息信号上，美联储主席鲍威尔此前在新闻发布会上表示，在“理想”状况下，联邦公开市场委员会不会在QE完全退出前开始加息，因为这将向市场释放矛盾的政策信号。高盛预计，美联储在缩减结束后将暂停一段时间，然后再开启加息进程。\n“缩减恐慌”影响有限\n在历史上，2013年的“缩减恐慌”（taper tantrum）对市场造成了巨大的冲击——但相关影响只持续了非常短的时间。\n前美联储主席伯南克2013年在国会上表示，美联储“可能在接下来的几次会议上降低购买的步伐”。这引发剧烈的市场动荡，10年期美债收益率的5天反弹40个基点；标准普尔500指数同期下跌了5%。成长股和周期股表现较差，纳斯达克100指数和罗素2000指数都落后于标准普尔500指数。\n市场剧烈的波动表明，投资者非常担心货币支持措施过早取消，以及随后可能的加息。但这些恐慌随后被证伪，市场随后经历强劲反弹。在股市暴跌后的两个月里，标普500指数反弹了5%，原材料、非必需消费品和医疗保健类股领涨。随着美联储重申其对宽松政策的承诺，增长型股票的表现优于价值型股票，周期性股票的表现优于防御型股票。\n\n增长预期更重要\n高盛分析表示，从定量角度，美联储可以通过资产负债表规模影响股票风险溢价(ERP)来间接影响市场，具体影响因素包括盈亏平衡通胀、美联储资产负债表、政策不确定性和消费者信心。\n目前投资者已经意识到缩减购债的趋势。但高盛表示，虽然缩减购债可能会对股票估值造成压力，但以盈亏平衡通胀为代表的增长预期对股市的影响更大，对股票估值的未来的变化路径更为关键。\n高盛表示，对股市而言，美联储资产负债表规模变化之前的“信号”效应可能比实际变化本身更重要。这与2013年发生的情况类似。在影响因子层面，美联储资产负债表规模的变化，而非变动速度的变化，似乎对回报率更为重要。周期性因子美联储资产负债表规模的变化和变化率呈正相关。\n高盛提示投资者，不断增长的美联储资产负债表与美股估值回报和规模大小之际的相关性是最积极的。这些关系可能反映了这样一个事实，即美联储资产负债表规模的变化与特定的市场和经济环境有关。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5417541,"gmtCreate":1628027932145,"gmtModify":1663231887057,"authorId":3582711269033683,"author":{"id":3582711269033683,"idStr":"3582711269033683","authorId":3582711269033683,"name":"Christy Sak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e566fb6b2a06e5c33147b5f0a1fe7db9","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":807197830,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"?","text":"?","html":"?"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":807325393,"gmtCreate":1628001607512,"gmtModify":1703499479521,"author":{"id":"3466482543984704","authorId":"3466482543984704","name":"makr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dde00aae191eb7246f32a852b7b1b215","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3466482543984704","idStr":"3466482543984704"},"htmlText":"這麼慢嗎","listText":"這麼慢嗎","text":"這麼慢嗎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807325393","repostId":1171567451,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171567451","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627996459,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171567451?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-03 21:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Goldman Sachs: The Fed expects to officially \"tighten\" in December, how to respond","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171567451","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储将从2022年开始每次会议减少购债规模。","content":"The July Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has ended. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell assured markets that there would be no immediate adjustment to monthly asset purchases. The committee said it had made progress in achieving employment and inflation targets, and its tone has changed little from its June meeting. The market reaction was also relatively quiet, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising only one basis point since the meeting and the S&P 500 index not changing much.Hinted in September, officially announced in DecemberAt the Taper point in time, Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will hint for the first time at the September FOMC meeting that it will begin to reduce the scale of bond purchases, and officially announce a reduction of $120 billion per month at the December meeting. In terms of the speed of tapering, Goldman Sachs believes that the Federal Reserve will reduce the scale of bond purchases at each meeting starting in 2022, reducing Treasury Bond by $10 billion and MBS by $5 billion at each meeting.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18506ee92a11d0972a8e3881025b29e3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Goldman Sachs emphasized that investors may regard the Federal Reserve's first announcement of tapering its bond purchase program as one of the signs that a rate hike is about to begin.Most studies show that the impact of \"quantitative easing\" (QE) on the market is mainly through the \"signal\" effect and \"stock\" effect on the Fed's future holding path expectations.Rather than influencing the market through the \"flow\" effects associated with asset purchases.In terms of rate hike signals, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously stated at a press conference that under \"ideal\" circumstances, the Federal Open Market Committee would not start a rate hike before QE is completely withdrawn, because it would send contradictory policy signals to the market. Goldman Sachs expects that,The Fed will pause for a period of time after the tapering ends before starting the rate hike process.'Taper tantrum' has limited impactHistorically, the \"taper tantrum\" of 2013 caused a huge shock to the market-but the related impact lasted only for a very short time.Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress in 2013 that the Federal Reserve \"may reduce the pace of purchases in the next few meetings\". This triggered violent market turmoil, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounding by 40 basis points in 5 days; The S&P 500 is down 5% over the same period. Growth and cyclical stocks performed poorly, with both the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 lagging the S&P 500.The sharp volatility in the market shows that investors are very worried about the premature removal of monetary support measures, and the possible rate hike that will follow. But these fears were subsequently falsified, and the market subsequently experienced a strong rebound. In the two months since the stock market crash, the S&P 500 rebounded 5%, led by raw materials, consumer discretionary and health care stocks. Growth stocks have outperformed value stocks and cyclical stocks have outperformed defensive stocks as the Federal Reserve reaffirms its commitment to accommodative policy.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f33578a9fda7b87e43033792cfa343e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Growth expectations are more importantGoldman Sachs analysis said that from a quantitative perspective,The Fed can indirectly affect the market by affecting the equity risk premium (ERP) through the size of its balance sheet. Specific influencing factors include break-even inflation, Fed balance sheet, policy uncertainty, and consumer confidence.Investors are now aware of the trend of tapering bond purchases. But Goldman Sachs said that while tapering bond purchases could put pressure on stock valuations,However, growth expectations represented by break-even inflation have a greater impact on the stock market and are more critical to the future path of changes in stock valuations.Goldman Sachs said that for stocks, the \"signal\" effect before the change in the size of the Fed's balance sheet may be more important than the actual change itself. This is similar to what happened in 2013. At the impact factor level, changes in the size of the Fed's balance sheet, rather than changes in the speed of change, seem to be more important to the rate of return. Cyclical Factor Changes in the size of the Fed's balance sheet are positively correlated with the rate of change.Goldman Sachs reminds investors that the correlation between the growing Fed balance sheet and the valuation returns and size of U.S. stocks is the most positive. These relationships may reflect the fact that changes in the size of the Fed's balance sheet are related to specific market and economic circumstances.","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs: The Fed expects to officially \"tighten\" in December, how to respond</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs: The Fed expects to officially \"tighten\" in December, how to respond\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-08-03 21:14\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe July Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has ended. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell assured markets that there would be no immediate adjustment to monthly asset purchases. The committee said it had made progress in achieving employment and inflation targets, and its tone has changed little from its June meeting. The market reaction was also relatively quiet, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising only one basis point since the meeting and the S&P 500 index not changing much.Hinted in September, officially announced in DecemberAt the Taper point in time, Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will hint for the first time at the September FOMC meeting that it will begin to reduce the scale of bond purchases, and officially announce a reduction of $120 billion per month at the December meeting. In terms of the speed of tapering, Goldman Sachs believes that the Federal Reserve will reduce the scale of bond purchases at each meeting starting in 2022, reducing Treasury Bond by $10 billion and MBS by $5 billion at each meeting.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18506ee92a11d0972a8e3881025b29e3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Goldman Sachs emphasized that investors may regard the Federal Reserve's first announcement of tapering its bond purchase program as one of the signs that a rate hike is about to begin.Most studies show that the impact of \"quantitative easing\" (QE) on the market is mainly through the \"signal\" effect and \"stock\" effect on the Fed's future holding path expectations.Rather than influencing the market through the \"flow\" effects associated with asset purchases.In terms of rate hike signals, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously stated at a press conference that under \"ideal\" circumstances, the Federal Open Market Committee would not start a rate hike before QE is completely withdrawn, because it would send contradictory policy signals to the market. Goldman Sachs expects that,The Fed will pause for a period of time after the tapering ends before starting the rate hike process.'Taper tantrum' has limited impactHistorically, the \"taper tantrum\" of 2013 caused a huge shock to the market-but the related impact lasted only for a very short time.Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress in 2013 that the Federal Reserve \"may reduce the pace of purchases in the next few meetings\". This triggered violent market turmoil, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounding by 40 basis points in 5 days; The S&P 500 is down 5% over the same period. Growth and cyclical stocks performed poorly, with both the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 lagging the S&P 500.The sharp volatility in the market shows that investors are very worried about the premature removal of monetary support measures, and the possible rate hike that will follow. But these fears were subsequently falsified, and the market subsequently experienced a strong rebound. In the two months since the stock market crash, the S&P 500 rebounded 5%, led by raw materials, consumer discretionary and health care stocks. Growth stocks have outperformed value stocks and cyclical stocks have outperformed defensive stocks as the Federal Reserve reaffirms its commitment to accommodative policy.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f33578a9fda7b87e43033792cfa343e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Growth expectations are more importantGoldman Sachs analysis said that from a quantitative perspective,The Fed can indirectly affect the market by affecting the equity risk premium (ERP) through the size of its balance sheet. Specific influencing factors include break-even inflation, Fed balance sheet, policy uncertainty, and consumer confidence.Investors are now aware of the trend of tapering bond purchases. But Goldman Sachs said that while tapering bond purchases could put pressure on stock valuations,However, growth expectations represented by break-even inflation have a greater impact on the stock market and are more critical to the future path of changes in stock valuations.Goldman Sachs said that for stocks, the \"signal\" effect before the change in the size of the Fed's balance sheet may be more important than the actual change itself. This is similar to what happened in 2013. At the impact factor level, changes in the size of the Fed's balance sheet, rather than changes in the speed of change, seem to be more important to the rate of return. Cyclical Factor Changes in the size of the Fed's balance sheet are positively correlated with the rate of change.Goldman Sachs reminds investors that the correlation between the growing Fed balance sheet and the valuation returns and size of U.S. stocks is the most positive. These relationships may reflect the fact that changes in the size of the Fed's balance sheet are related to specific market and economic circumstances.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637005\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637005","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1171567451","content_text":"7月的美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议已经结束。美联储主席鲍威尔向市场保证，不会立即调整月度资产购买。委员会表示在实现就业和通胀目标方面已经取得了进展，基调较6月会议变化不大。市场反应也相对平静，10年期美债收益率自会议以来仅上涨一个基点，标普500指数也变化不大。\n9月暗示、12月正式宣布\n在Taper时间点上，高盛预测认为，美联储将在9月的FOMC会议上首次暗示开始缩减购债规模，到12月会议上正式宣布减少每月1200亿美元的购买规模。在缩减速度方面，高盛认为美联储将从2022年开始每次会议减少购债规模，每次会议减少100亿美元国债和50亿美元的MBS。\n\n高盛强调，投资者可能将美联储首次宣布的缩减购债计划视为即将开始加息的信号之一。\n大多数研究表明，“量化宽松”（QE）对市场的影响主要是通过对美联储未来持有路径预期的“信号”效应和“股票”效应，而不是通过与资产购买相关的“流量”效应（“flow” effects）来影响市场。\n在加息信号上，美联储主席鲍威尔此前在新闻发布会上表示，在“理想”状况下，联邦公开市场委员会不会在QE完全退出前开始加息，因为这将向市场释放矛盾的政策信号。高盛预计，美联储在缩减结束后将暂停一段时间，然后再开启加息进程。\n“缩减恐慌”影响有限\n在历史上，2013年的“缩减恐慌”（taper tantrum）对市场造成了巨大的冲击——但相关影响只持续了非常短的时间。\n前美联储主席伯南克2013年在国会上表示，美联储“可能在接下来的几次会议上降低购买的步伐”。这引发剧烈的市场动荡，10年期美债收益率的5天反弹40个基点；标准普尔500指数同期下跌了5%。成长股和周期股表现较差，纳斯达克100指数和罗素2000指数都落后于标准普尔500指数。\n市场剧烈的波动表明，投资者非常担心货币支持措施过早取消，以及随后可能的加息。但这些恐慌随后被证伪，市场随后经历强劲反弹。在股市暴跌后的两个月里，标普500指数反弹了5%，原材料、非必需消费品和医疗保健类股领涨。随着美联储重申其对宽松政策的承诺，增长型股票的表现优于价值型股票，周期性股票的表现优于防御型股票。\n\n增长预期更重要\n高盛分析表示，从定量角度，美联储可以通过资产负债表规模影响股票风险溢价(ERP)来间接影响市场，具体影响因素包括盈亏平衡通胀、美联储资产负债表、政策不确定性和消费者信心。\n目前投资者已经意识到缩减购债的趋势。但高盛表示，虽然缩减购债可能会对股票估值造成压力，但以盈亏平衡通胀为代表的增长预期对股市的影响更大，对股票估值的未来的变化路径更为关键。\n高盛表示，对股市而言，美联储资产负债表规模变化之前的“信号”效应可能比实际变化本身更重要。这与2013年发生的情况类似。在影响因子层面，美联储资产负债表规模的变化，而非变动速度的变化，似乎对回报率更为重要。周期性因子美联储资产负债表规模的变化和变化率呈正相关。\n高盛提示投资者，不断增长的美联储资产负债表与美股估值回报和规模大小之际的相关性是最积极的。这些关系可能反映了这样一个事实，即美联储资产负债表规模的变化与特定的市场和经济环境有关。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":22,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1171567451","isCrawlerRequest":true}