The market has recently experienced a period of overall volatility, yet leading sectors continue to demonstrate significant strength, particularly the six key thematic investment tracks previously highlighted. Since the beginning of last year, these sectors have seen successive substantial rallies. These six tracks are primarily concentrated in the field of technological innovation, which represents the second growth curve for China's economy amid its ongoing transformation. The investment thesis focusing on these six tracks—chip semiconductors, computing power and algorithm infrastructure, humanoid robots, commercial aerospace, solid-state batteries, and biomedicine—has gradually gained widespread attention and acceptance among investors. These sectors represent the direction of China's economic transformation and are key industries targeted for support under the national development plan. Over the past year, the performance of the initial tracks has been preliminarily validated, with several showing strong results and producing numerous multi-bagger stocks. This includes the still-robust chip semiconductor sector, where related industry chains and leading companies—particularly in areas like optical modules, CPO, PCB, and liquid cooling—have seen substantial gains. Chip semiconductors are the most critical components of the AI era, serving as the technological brain, and these sectors are aptly described as "standing in the light." The upcoming IPOs of major memory manufacturers have further fueled investor enthusiasm for the chip semiconductor space. Other sectors requiring technological breakthroughs, such as solid-state batteries, biomedicine, quantum technology, and controlled nuclear fusion, represent future industries that have yet to see their full market cycle; their rise is anticipated in due course.
Computing power and algorithm infrastructure are the quintessential "shovel sellers" of the AI era—while digging for gold may not guarantee profits, selling shovels offers a relatively higher probability of success. Both chip semiconductors and computing infrastructure fall into this beneficiary category. Computing power is a crucial aspect of international competition, underpinned by electrical power. With surging demand for computing, China can indirectly achieve power export through computing services. Currently, China has a surplus of electrical power, sometimes resulting in the curtailment of renewable energy, leading to waste. By exporting computing power, China can effectively export electricity. For instance, researchers in Silicon Valley requiring computational power for large model projects, facing high data center costs (including expensive electricity) in the U.S., can transmit data via trans-Pacific submarine fiber optics to large data centers in Western China. These centers utilize electricity costing as low as 0.15 yuan per kilowatt-hour for computations, with results sent back via fiber optics. This equates to electricity export and, under international norms, data transmission via fiber optics is not considered import/export, incurring no tariffs. Compared to direct electricity export, this method is more cost-effective, eliminating the need for cross-border ultra-high-voltage transmission lines. Therefore, computing infrastructure represents a significant future direction, benefiting both the power and grid equipment sectors. These areas are among the primary beneficiaries of technological innovation and are likely to continue leading market gains. Although some individual stocks may face adjustment pressure due to excessive gains and accumulated profits, the overall trend is expected to remain upward.
Following the Labor Day holiday, the humanoid robot sector has gained momentum. Humanoid robots represent one of the most promising application scenarios for AI, serving as the physical embodiment of the AI era. While the internet era's terminals were computers and smartphones, the AI era's terminal is the humanoid robot. This sector's performance is a prominent and critical focus in the current market. Tesla's robotics division, led by Elon Musk, is a pioneer in this industry. Tesla's production lines in California for Model X and Model S officially ceased operations on May 21st, being fully converted into production lines with an annual capacity of one million humanoid robots. The latest Tesla robot, Optimus V3, is set to debut in July or August, featuring dexterous hands with 22 degrees of freedom, marking the beginning of mass production for humanoid robots. Musk even posits that the future number of robots on Earth could surpass the human population, reaching 10 billion units. Musk's gradual shift from electric vehicles toward humanoid robots and autonomous driving is driven by the intensifying competition and diminishing future profit margins in the EV sector, whereas autonomous driving and robotics represent the future direction. Recently, Figure AI released a video of a robot performing household chores, and a robotics company in Wuhan has initiated testing for domestic chores and is recruiting volunteers, indicating that humanoid robots are increasingly closer to entering households. An American robotics company live-streamed an industrial robot working for eight hours, demonstrating that industrial robots are already in application. It is believed that humanoid robots represent China's fourth major industrial track following home appliances, mobile phones, and new energy vehicles. The next three years are expected to be a period of explosive industry growth for humanoid robots, benefiting the entire robotics sector. Compared to OEMs, leading companies in robot components act as "shovel sellers," offering relatively stronger earnings certainty and future growth potential. Key segments include leading enterprises in ball screws, sensors, reducers, vision systems, and control systems (often metaphorically referred to as the 'brain' and 'cerebellum'), warranting close attention as a long-term, high-potential industrial track.
In recent years, the AI boom has significantly increased demand for chip semiconductors, driving substantial industry growth. In the high-end HBM memory segment, profit margins are high, with a few leading companies holding nearly 95% market share. These firms have concentrated capacity on high-end chips, creating a supply gap in mid-to-low-end memory products like DRAM and NAND flash. This gap has been filled by two major Chinese memory manufacturers, leading to a surge in their profits. Both companies are planning IPOs this year, demonstrating China's significant production capacity in memory and ongoing efforts to攻克 high-end chips like HBM. Many sub-sectors within the AI industry chain possess medium-to-long-term growth potential. Following restrictions on high-end chips, demand for domestic alternatives is immense. Recent developments, including a visit by former U.S. President Trump and NVIDIA's relaxation of some export restrictions on H200 chips, suggest significant technological breakthroughs in China's semiconductor sector. Restrictions on H200 chips have thus become less meaningful. Through demonstrated capability, China has broken through such barriers and may even develop a leading edge in the semiconductor supply chain, potentially moving toward exporting chips to other countries, establishing semiconductors as a competitive domestic industry.
The current market trend is characterized by both a technology rally and the rise of "HALO assets"—the heavy-asset, low-volatility infrastructure of the AI era, primarily represented by leading companies in energy and resources. These sectors are not only resistant to replacement in the AI era but are also critical future development directions. By focusing on the six technological innovation tracks, investors can capture opportunities from the AI revolution. Simultaneously, allocating to "HALO assets" with relatively strong earnings certainty can help achieve balanced portfolio diversification and risk mitigation. Many traditional industries facing operational difficulties and poor prospects should likely continue to be avoided. Against the backdrop of economic transformation, the current market clearly exhibits a bifurcated character. It is essential to adapt to the times and align with the changes brought by economic transformation, focusing on high-quality industries and companies that benefit from these directional shifts to capitalize on the opportunities presented by this market phase.
MACD golden cross signals have formed, and these stocks are performing well.
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