Abstract
Joby Aviation, Inc. will report on February 25, 2026 Post Market, with consensus pointing to a sharp year-over-year rebound in revenue and narrower losses as commercialization pilots and services scale; this preview outlines expectations for revenue, margins, net loss, and adjusted EPS alongside analyst sentiment.
Market Forecast
Based on the company’s latest guidance framework and compiled forecasts, the current-quarter revenue estimate is $16.96 million, implying a 369.36% year-over-year increase, with EBIT estimated at -$173.39 million and EPS at -$0.22; year-over-year growth rates are interpreted as decimal ratios converted to percentages. Forecast margin details are limited, though the company’s mix shift toward services and early passenger operations suggests gross margin stability relative to last quarter, while net margin is expected to remain negative as certification and manufacturing scale-up expenses persist. The main business is projected to continue expanding revenue through passenger operations and flight/engineering services as test and pre-commercial activity increases, supporting top-line visibility. The most promising segment is passenger services, with the prior quarter showing $13.65 million from passengers and strong year-over-year acceleration; this area should lead incremental growth given network ramp and operational readiness milestones.
Last Quarter Review
In the prior quarter, Joby Aviation, Inc. delivered revenue of $22.57 million, a gross profit margin of 55.44%, a GAAP net loss attributable to the parent company of $401.00 million, a net profit margin not disclosed by the dataset, and adjusted EPS of -0.48, with year-over-year growth rates reported as decimal ratios that indicate significant expansion in revenue and deeper EPS loss compared with the year-ago period. Notably, revenue beat prior estimates materially while EBIT underscored continued investment intensity in certification and production. Main business highlights showed passengers contributing $13.65 million and flight services and engineering services contributing $8.92 million, reflecting a revenue structure anchored by the emerging passenger segment and a supportive services base.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Main business: Passenger operations and services
Passenger operations have become the largest revenue driver, reflecting early-stage commercialization and market trials. The sequential ramp in top line and the prior quarter’s 55.44% gross margin point to a business model that can carry healthy contribution as utilization improves, though net losses will remain until certification, aircraft scale-up, and route density converge. For this quarter, the revenue estimate of $16.96 million indicates a step-down from the prior quarter’s unusually strong outcome yet a sharp improvement year over year, reinforcing the view that passenger operations are transitioning from pilot programs to broader service deployment. The investment-heavy phase, including flight testing, certification workstreams, and infrastructure readiness, will continue to weigh on EBIT and EPS, but the revenue cadence signals that underlying demand and partnership activity are gaining traction.
Most promising business: Passenger revenue leadership and scalability
Passenger services at $13.65 million last quarter already surpassed flight and engineering services, and the forecasting framework implies this category will drive most of the year-over-year growth. As utilization rises and route networks expand, fixed costs should be leveraged over a larger activity base, supporting stable to improving gross margins from the 55.44% level observed in the prior quarter. The short-term variability in revenue versus last quarter’s high base is consistent with pre-commercial milestones and contract timing; however, the broader trajectory suggests that passenger services provide the most elastic growth profile once certifications enable sustained operations. Execution priorities center on maintaining service reliability, scaling fleet availability in line with regulatory milestones, and deepening commercial partnerships that can underpin predictable volumes.
Key stock-price drivers this quarter
Investors are likely to focus on the balance between accelerated revenue growth and the pace of operating loss reduction. The consensus points to EBIT of -$173.39 million and EPS of -$0.22, which, if delivered alongside robust year-over-year revenue growth of 369.36%, would support the narrative of improving unit economics during the certification ramp. Margin commentary will be closely watched, especially any updates on gross margin drivers related to service mix and early passenger monetization. Additionally, disclosures on certification timelines, production readiness, and fleet deployment milestones can materially influence sentiment, as these factors determine the timeline to positive free cash flow and any potential capital needs. Management’s guidance cadence around commercialization timing and network expansion will serve as the main validation points for medium-term growth assumptions.
Analyst Opinions
The balance of published views skews bullish, emphasizing accelerating revenue and clear milestones toward commercial operations. Analysts who are constructive on Joby Aviation, Inc. highlight the significant year-over-year revenue increase forecast for this quarter, the prior quarter’s gross margin of 55.44% as a sign of attractive unit potential, and confidence that certification and production milestones are progressing sufficiently to sustain growth into subsequent quarters. Bullish commentary often centers on the passenger segment’s leadership and scalability, arguing that as route density improves and aircraft availability increases, contribution margins should hold or improve from last quarter’s level while operating losses gradually narrow from the forecasted -$173.39 million EBIT. There is also an expectation that revenue visibility will strengthen through partnerships for city launches and infrastructure access, supporting the consensus revenue estimate of $16.96 million and an EPS path consistent with -$0.22 this quarter. In aggregate, the majority view anticipates that the company’s commercial readiness updates and reiteration of growth metrics will validate current projections and keep investor focus on the timeline for broader service rollout and profitability inflection.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
Comments