Trump's High-Stakes Gamble: Assassination of Khamenei, US Casualties, and Oil Price Surge – Can He Reclaim Victory in November?

Deep News03-02 09:06

The United States has reported its first casualties in the conflict with Iran, a war that has now spread to multiple countries across the Middle East and threatens to upend global energy markets.

US Central Command confirmed on Sunday that three American service members were killed and five others seriously wounded during operations targeting the Islamic Republic of Iran, though further details were not disclosed.

In an earlier social media post, US President Donald Trump announced that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed on the first day of strikes launched by the United States and its regional ally, Israel.

Tehran confirmed Khamenei's death hours later, announcing a 40-day period of national mourning for the 86-year-old leader, who was killed inside his office compound.

Trump stated that "swift and precise bombing will continue uninterrupted throughout the week, or as long as necessary." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared in a Sunday address that Israeli forces are striking Tehran "with increasing intensity," adding that "this intensity will only grow in the coming days."

Later that day, Trump posted on social media that US forces had sunk nine Iranian naval vessels and that the Iranian naval headquarters was "largely destroyed" in another attack.

On Sunday, as the conflict expanded across the Middle East, Iran retaliated against the initial US and Israeli strikes by launching multiple waves of missiles at targets in several countries. Iranian missiles struck buildings in Tel Aviv, while defense systems in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait intercepted incoming projectiles.

Both Israel and the United Arab Emirates reported casualties. Iranian state television reported on Saturday that more than 200 people had been killed in the attacks on Iran.

Dubai's primary airport, one of the world's busiest aviation hubs, was hit, leading to the suspension of nearly all civilian air traffic across the Gulf region.

Landmark structures in Dubai, including the luxurious Palm Jumeirah and the Burj Al Arab hotel, were damaged in a series of explosions that shook the financial hub. Skyscrapers in Abu Dhabi were also impacted.

According to a client notice seen by Bloomberg, logistics giant DP World has halted operations at Dubai's Jebel Ali port. The UAE announced that the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market will be closed on March 2 and 3.

The conflict has already had a profound impact on global energy markets. Oil prices have risen nearly 20% year-to-date, largely attributed to US-Iran tensions. OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to resume production increases next month in response to anticipated further rises in crude prices.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for oil and gas shipments connecting the Persian Gulf to open seas, was described by Iran's Tasnim News Agency as "effectively closed," with tankers increasingly avoiding the route. Two vessels were reported attacked off the coast of Oman, though Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian stated that Iran has no intention of closing the strait.

The assassination of Khamenei, who ruled the Islamic Republic of Iran for over three decades, marks a significant escalation in US and Israeli efforts to curb Iran's regional influence.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi vowed to "avenge and retaliate" for Khamenei's death, calling it a "legitimate right," while other officials pledged to intensify Iran's military response.

Khamenei had not publicly designated a successor. The Assembly of Experts, the clerical body responsible for selecting the next Supreme Leader, must appoint a new leader. In the interim, a council consisting of the president, the head of the judiciary, and a jurist from the Guardian Council will assume leadership duties.

Following news of Khamenei's death, videos circulated on social media showing crowds in Iran dancing and cheering in the streets. Other footage showed mourners. In Pakistan, at least nine pro-Iranian protesters were killed on Sunday in clashes with police while attempting to storm the US consulate in Karachi.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia openly condemned Iran's retaliatory strikes, indicating that Gulf Arab states are losing patience as Tehran launches missiles across the region.

Anwar Gargash, a senior adviser to the UAE leadership, urged Iran via social media to "return to reason," warning that the Islamic Republic has become isolated at this critical juncture. Saudi Arabia summoned the Iranian ambassador in response to what it called "blatant" attacks targeting the kingdom.

Amirabdollahian told Al Jazeera that Iran does not expect outside intervention to support Tehran, asserting that Iran is capable of self-defense and adding that his country did not start the war. Oman, which mediated pre-war nuclear talks between the US and Iran, stated that Tehran is willing to accept "serious efforts" to de-escalate the situation. The Atlantic, citing conversations with Trump, reported that the US president expressed willingness to engage with Iran's new leadership.

The escalating conflict represents a pivotal moment for US leadership, potentially triggering a protracted regional war, driving energy prices higher, and causing additional American casualties ahead of the November midterm elections.

In a video posted on his Truth Social platform on Saturday, Trump stated that the objective of the ongoing conflict is to "eliminate the imminent threat posed by the Iranian regime." He urged the Iranian people to "take over your government." When asked by Fox News on Sunday about oil prices, Trump said he was "not worried at all" and claimed that the Iranian people's takeover was "proceeding rapidly."

An Israeli military official estimated that Israeli strikes had destroyed hundreds of Iranian ballistic missiles and approximately half of the country's missile launchers. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information, stated that around 200 Iranian missile launchers were destroyed, with dozens more rendered inoperable.

US Central Command said in a statement that American forces successfully defended against hundreds of Iranian missiles and drones. According to Central Command, US targets in Iran included Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command and control facilities, Iranian air defense systems, missile and drone launch sites, and military airfields. Israel reported that IRGC commander Mohammad Pakpour was killed.

Iranian media reported attacks on military and civilian sites, including one strike that killed more than 140 people at a school in Hormozgan province. Several large explosions were also reported in the capital, Tehran.

For US allies in the Gulf such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, the prospect of a prolonged regional war is a nightmare scenario. These nations have strongly advocated for a diplomatic resolution to the nuclear dispute between Iran and the US, fearing that the current chaos and flight cancellations will harm their economies and deter tourists and foreign investment.

Trump has stated that military action became necessary after Iran refused to abandon its nuclear weapons program. Iran has repeatedly denied seeking nuclear weapons. The latest round of talks was held on Thursday.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment