* U.S equity index futures edge up in premarket trade
* Euro STOXX 600 index ~flat
* Dollar ~flat; gold nominally down; crude up slightly; bitcoin falls
* US 10-Year Treasury yield ~1.30%
Aug 30 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
NASDAQ COMPOSITE: ABOUT TO PULL A MUSCLE? (0900 EDT/1300 GMT)
The Nasdaq Composite posted a record-high daily and weekly closes on Friday. And now, Nasdaq 100 e-mini futures
are suggesting further gains at open Monday.
With this, however, the Composite, on a weekly basis, may not be able to stretch much more above its 200-week moving average $(WMA.AU)$ before it comes up lame, and stumbles:
In mid-February, the Composite ended Friday 69.9% above its 200-WMA. This was its greatest level of disparity vs this long-term moving average since September 2000.
Since then, and despite higher IXIC highs, amid a slowing rate-of-ascent, the disparity has waned. This measure peaked in mid-April at 62.9% before posting double-highs at a Fibonacci 61.8% in early and later July.
The Composite closed Friday 61.4% above its 200-WMA. With the moving average poised to potentially rise a little more than 40 points or so this week to around 9,418, a another push to challenge a 61.8% disparity reading would put the Composite around 15,238, or just 0.7% above Friday's 15,129.501 close.
Of note, when the Composite topped on a weekly basis in late-August 2018, there had been a period of 200-WMA disparity divergence. Additionally, disparity stalled in early 2020 shy of its 2018 tops ahead of the February/March IXIC collapse. Therefore, another disparity down-tick may suggest the Composite has already stretched about as far as it can for now.
A weekly disparity close above 61.8%, however, may suggest the Composite can extend again to challenge the 69.9% mid-February reading. In that event, depending on the speed of the advance, the IXIC could potentially tack on more than 6%, while pushing over 16,000.
(Terence Gabriel)
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(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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