"Crisis" Is Coming for the Stronger US Dollar

The Australian Financial Review2022-09-27

The US dollar strength has triggered extraordinary outflows from stock markets in Asia and will provide headwinds to earnings in the United States.The strongest United States dollar in about 35 years ...

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Comments

T202311701
2022-09-27
T202311701
O
Bull1973
2022-09-27
Bull1973
Ok
Goupppppppp
2022-09-27
Goupppppppp
What the market movement for today?
- Goupppppppp:
  wrong predict.
- Targarean:
  Up 👍🏼
- ZEROHERO:
  Sideways?
erichosk
2022-09-27
erichosk
Ok
- erichosk:
  ok

Leave a comment

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A year-on-year change in the trade-weighted US dollar is negatively correlated to earnings revisions over time.Most vulnerable sectorsThe sectors most vulnerable to hits from dollar strength are capital goods, software, media and entertainment, materials, energy and tech hardware.Ben Inker, co-head of asset allocation at GMO, says in a note that while an overvalued currency is a negative influence on the performance of equities in that country, the opposite is also true.“By contrast, a cheap currency is a strong equity tailwind in the developed world, leaving developed markets like the euro area and Japan poised to benefit from their undervalued currencies,” Inker says.“To date, the effects of the expensive dollar have not been that noticeable for the US, but the impact has been quickly felt in other countries.“The strong dollar and high commodity prices have pushed some less developed countries into distress.“Still, the valuation of currencies in the emerging world today are attractive enough that even allowing for some poor decision-making (by governments), they should still be a source of equity market support over the next few years.”Severe short-term painBut the promised reversal of the US equity dominance of the last decade is not going to happen without severe pain in the short term.The following areas in the MSCI World Index have experienced equity market declines this year in US dollars as follows: Korea 38 per cent, Taiwan, 36 per cent, China-A 33 per cent, Japan 25 per cent, Philippines 22 per cent, Singapore 21 per cent and Australia 20 per cent.There has been and will continue to be persistent capital outflows from the region driven by higher US term structure, supply-side constraints and latent concerns regarding China’s COVID strategy, according to ExanteData.A note from its analysts this week says ExanteData’s outperformance measure is the highest since March 2020.Also, the firm says many of the potential sources of two-way risk for the US dollar have already materialised, so it is hard to see a bearish turn in the dollar amid increasingly “crisis-like” dynamics in G10 foreign exchange markets.“The key to a dollar turn will be a bottoming in global growth expectations and sustained slowing of US inflation,” the Exante analysts say.Meghan Swiber, from BofA Global Research, says the dollar is surging on the back of the largest year-to-date move in short-term US rates over the past 40 years.“The second largest was in 1981 when the Fed was similarly trying to get inflation under control,” she says.Swabere says further tightening in financial conditions and a turn in the labor market will be required before the Fed stops tightening, which suggests the Fed will overtighten.Oppenheimer Asset Management’s chief investment strategist, John Stoltzfus, says foreign purchases of US assets by investors seeking“safe havens” amid the war in Ukraine as well as expectations of higher rates from the central bank have helped push the US currency higher for most of this year.Fundstrat’s Mark Newton, who is head of technical strategy, says the DXY is in its largest overbought condition on a monthly basis since 2015 and before that, 1985.“While a small sample size, both of those prior occasions resulted in meaningful underperformance in the years to come,” he says.“Overall, it’s unlikely the US dollar runs higher through Q4. I expect a good reversal that should start sometime in October.”","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":9911786910,"gmtCreate":1664261295930,"gmtModify":1676537421160,"author":{"id":"4115257325505790","authorId":"4115257325505790","name":"T202311701","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/816311e9879fbae4e952e2a5386f68ca","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4115257325505790","idStr":"4115257325505790"},"htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911786910","repostId":2270298075,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2270298075","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1664255680,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2270298075?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-27 13:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Crisis\" Is Coming for the Stronger US Dollar","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2270298075","media":"The Australian Financial Review","summary":"The US dollar strength has triggered extraordinary outflows from stock markets in Asia and will prov","content":"<div>\n<p>The US dollar strength has triggered extraordinary outflows from stock markets in Asia and will provide headwinds to earnings in the United States.The strongest United States dollar in about 35 years ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/crisis-is-coming-for-the-stronger-us-dollar-20220927-p5blak\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"afr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Crisis\" Is Coming for the Stronger US Dollar\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-27 13:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/crisis-is-coming-for-the-stronger-us-dollar-20220927-p5blak><strong>The Australian Financial Review</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The US dollar strength has triggered extraordinary outflows from stock markets in Asia and will provide headwinds to earnings in the United States.The strongest United States dollar in about 35 years ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/crisis-is-coming-for-the-stronger-us-dollar-20220927-p5blak\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/crisis-is-coming-for-the-stronger-us-dollar-20220927-p5blak","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2270298075","content_text":"The US dollar strength has triggered extraordinary outflows from stock markets in Asia and will provide headwinds to earnings in the United States.The strongest United States dollar in about 35 years will head higher over the next few months in tandem with the US Federal Reserve tightening, according to leading strategists.A strong dollar is another bearish factor feeding into the earnings downgrades for US equities by respected Morgan Stanley chief investment officer and strategist, Mike Wilson.Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson says the strong US dollar is another reason for further hits to US earnings. David RoweWilson has been bearish all year and is now predicting the S&P 500 will fall to a range of around 3000 to 3400.He says in a note to clients overnight the likely rise in the US dollar index (DXY) to 118 by the end of the year will add a 10 per cent headwind to S&P 500 earnings in the fourth quarter given the correlation between a stronger dollar and lower earnings.The DXY is up 21 per cent this year to 113.73. Morgan Stanley calculates that every 1 per cent change in the DXY has about a negative 0.5 per cent impact on S&P 500 earnings.Wilson says “the recent move in the US dollar creates an untenable situation for risk assets that historically has ended in a financial or economic crisis, or both”.“While hard to predict such ‘events’, the conditions are in place for one, which would help accelerate the end to this bear market.“Wilson says US companies derive about 30 per cent of sales outside the US and that number exceeds 50 per cent for the tech sector. A year-on-year change in the trade-weighted US dollar is negatively correlated to earnings revisions over time.Most vulnerable sectorsThe sectors most vulnerable to hits from dollar strength are capital goods, software, media and entertainment, materials, energy and tech hardware.Ben Inker, co-head of asset allocation at GMO, says in a note that while an overvalued currency is a negative influence on the performance of equities in that country, the opposite is also true.“By contrast, a cheap currency is a strong equity tailwind in the developed world, leaving developed markets like the euro area and Japan poised to benefit from their undervalued currencies,” Inker says.“To date, the effects of the expensive dollar have not been that noticeable for the US, but the impact has been quickly felt in other countries.“The strong dollar and high commodity prices have pushed some less developed countries into distress.“Still, the valuation of currencies in the emerging world today are attractive enough that even allowing for some poor decision-making (by governments), they should still be a source of equity market support over the next few years.”Severe short-term painBut the promised reversal of the US equity dominance of the last decade is not going to happen without severe pain in the short term.The following areas in the MSCI World Index have experienced equity market declines this year in US dollars as follows: Korea 38 per cent, Taiwan, 36 per cent, China-A 33 per cent, Japan 25 per cent, Philippines 22 per cent, Singapore 21 per cent and Australia 20 per cent.There has been and will continue to be persistent capital outflows from the region driven by higher US term structure, supply-side constraints and latent concerns regarding China’s COVID strategy, according to ExanteData.A note from its analysts this week says ExanteData’s outperformance measure is the highest since March 2020.Also, the firm says many of the potential sources of two-way risk for the US dollar have already materialised, so it is hard to see a bearish turn in the dollar amid increasingly “crisis-like” dynamics in G10 foreign exchange markets.“The key to a dollar turn will be a bottoming in global growth expectations and sustained slowing of US inflation,” the Exante analysts say.Meghan Swiber, from BofA Global Research, says the dollar is surging on the back of the largest year-to-date move in short-term US rates over the past 40 years.“The second largest was in 1981 when the Fed was similarly trying to get inflation under control,” she says.Swabere says further tightening in financial conditions and a turn in the labor market will be required before the Fed stops tightening, which suggests the Fed will overtighten.Oppenheimer Asset Management’s chief investment strategist, John Stoltzfus, says foreign purchases of US assets by investors seeking“safe havens” amid the war in Ukraine as well as expectations of higher rates from the central bank have helped push the US currency higher for most of this year.Fundstrat’s Mark Newton, who is head of technical strategy, says the DXY is in its largest overbought condition on a monthly basis since 2015 and before that, 1985.“While a small sample size, both of those prior occasions resulted in meaningful underperformance in the years to come,” he says.“Overall, it’s unlikely the US dollar runs higher through Q4. I expect a good reversal that should start sometime in October.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.6,"USDindexmain":0.9,"UUP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9911789507,"gmtCreate":1664260187709,"gmtModify":1676537420899,"author":{"id":"3584680402793671","authorId":"3584680402793671","name":"Bull1973","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/866d29bf88ff7363d121a5ccc6028aae","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3584680402793671","idStr":"3584680402793671"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911789507","repostId":2270298075,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2270298075","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1664255680,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2270298075?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-27 13:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Crisis\" Is Coming for the Stronger US Dollar","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2270298075","media":"The Australian Financial Review","summary":"The US dollar strength has triggered extraordinary outflows from stock markets in Asia and will prov","content":"<div>\n<p>The US dollar strength has triggered extraordinary outflows from stock markets in Asia and will provide headwinds to earnings in the United States.The strongest United States dollar in about 35 years ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/crisis-is-coming-for-the-stronger-us-dollar-20220927-p5blak\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"afr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Crisis\" Is Coming for the Stronger US Dollar</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Crisis\" Is Coming for the Stronger US Dollar\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-27 13:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/crisis-is-coming-for-the-stronger-us-dollar-20220927-p5blak><strong>The Australian Financial Review</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The US dollar strength has triggered extraordinary outflows from stock markets in Asia and will provide headwinds to earnings in the United States.The strongest United States dollar in about 35 years ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/crisis-is-coming-for-the-stronger-us-dollar-20220927-p5blak\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/crisis-is-coming-for-the-stronger-us-dollar-20220927-p5blak","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2270298075","content_text":"The US dollar strength has triggered extraordinary outflows from stock markets in Asia and will provide headwinds to earnings in the United States.The strongest United States dollar in about 35 years will head higher over the next few months in tandem with the US Federal Reserve tightening, according to leading strategists.A strong dollar is another bearish factor feeding into the earnings downgrades for US equities by respected Morgan Stanley chief investment officer and strategist, Mike Wilson.Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson says the strong US dollar is another reason for further hits to US earnings. David RoweWilson has been bearish all year and is now predicting the S&P 500 will fall to a range of around 3000 to 3400.He says in a note to clients overnight the likely rise in the US dollar index (DXY) to 118 by the end of the year will add a 10 per cent headwind to S&P 500 earnings in the fourth quarter given the correlation between a stronger dollar and lower earnings.The DXY is up 21 per cent this year to 113.73. Morgan Stanley calculates that every 1 per cent change in the DXY has about a negative 0.5 per cent impact on S&P 500 earnings.Wilson says “the recent move in the US dollar creates an untenable situation for risk assets that historically has ended in a financial or economic crisis, or both”.“While hard to predict such ‘events’, the conditions are in place for one, which would help accelerate the end to this bear market.“Wilson says US companies derive about 30 per cent of sales outside the US and that number exceeds 50 per cent for the tech sector. A year-on-year change in the trade-weighted US dollar is negatively correlated to earnings revisions over time.Most vulnerable sectorsThe sectors most vulnerable to hits from dollar strength are capital goods, software, media and entertainment, materials, energy and tech hardware.Ben Inker, co-head of asset allocation at GMO, says in a note that while an overvalued currency is a negative influence on the performance of equities in that country, the opposite is also true.“By contrast, a cheap currency is a strong equity tailwind in the developed world, leaving developed markets like the euro area and Japan poised to benefit from their undervalued currencies,” Inker says.“To date, the effects of the expensive dollar have not been that noticeable for the US, but the impact has been quickly felt in other countries.“The strong dollar and high commodity prices have pushed some less developed countries into distress.“Still, the valuation of currencies in the emerging world today are attractive enough that even allowing for some poor decision-making (by governments), they should still be a source of equity market support over the next few years.”Severe short-term painBut the promised reversal of the US equity dominance of the last decade is not going to happen without severe pain in the short term.The following areas in the MSCI World Index have experienced equity market declines this year in US dollars as follows: Korea 38 per cent, Taiwan, 36 per cent, China-A 33 per cent, Japan 25 per cent, Philippines 22 per cent, Singapore 21 per cent and Australia 20 per cent.There has been and will continue to be persistent capital outflows from the region driven by higher US term structure, supply-side constraints and latent concerns regarding China’s COVID strategy, according to ExanteData.A note from its analysts this week says ExanteData’s outperformance measure is the highest since March 2020.Also, the firm says many of the potential sources of two-way risk for the US dollar have already materialised, so it is hard to see a bearish turn in the dollar amid increasingly “crisis-like” dynamics in G10 foreign exchange markets.“The key to a dollar turn will be a bottoming in global growth expectations and sustained slowing of US inflation,” the Exante analysts say.Meghan Swiber, from BofA Global Research, says the dollar is surging on the back of the largest year-to-date move in short-term US rates over the past 40 years.“The second largest was in 1981 when the Fed was similarly trying to get inflation under control,” she says.Swabere says further tightening in financial conditions and a turn in the labor market will be required before the Fed stops tightening, which suggests the Fed will overtighten.Oppenheimer Asset Management’s chief investment strategist, John Stoltzfus, says foreign purchases of US assets by investors seeking“safe havens” amid the war in Ukraine as well as expectations of higher rates from the central bank have helped push the US currency higher for most of this year.Fundstrat’s Mark Newton, who is head of technical strategy, says the DXY is in its largest overbought condition on a monthly basis since 2015 and before that, 1985.“While a small sample size, both of those prior occasions resulted in meaningful underperformance in the years to come,” he says.“Overall, it’s unlikely the US dollar runs higher through Q4. I expect a good reversal that should start sometime in October.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.6,"USDindexmain":0.9,"UUP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9911736435,"gmtCreate":1664256921527,"gmtModify":1676537420250,"author":{"id":"3578690837330197","authorId":"3578690837330197","name":"Goupppppppp","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3e7f6253c885de8bad6403055b76aab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3578690837330197","idStr":"3578690837330197"},"htmlText":"What the market movement for today?","listText":"What the market movement for today?","text":"What the market movement for today?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911736435","repostId":2270298075,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2270298075","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1664255680,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2270298075?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-27 13:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Crisis\" Is Coming for the Stronger US Dollar","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2270298075","media":"The Australian Financial Review","summary":"The US dollar strength has triggered extraordinary outflows from stock markets in Asia and will prov","content":"<div>\n<p>The US dollar strength has triggered extraordinary outflows from stock markets in Asia and will provide headwinds to earnings in the United States.The strongest United States dollar in about 35 years ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/crisis-is-coming-for-the-stronger-us-dollar-20220927-p5blak\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"afr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Crisis\" Is Coming for the Stronger US Dollar</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Crisis\" Is Coming for the Stronger US Dollar\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-27 13:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/crisis-is-coming-for-the-stronger-us-dollar-20220927-p5blak><strong>The Australian Financial Review</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The US dollar strength has triggered extraordinary outflows from stock markets in Asia and will provide headwinds to earnings in the United States.The strongest United States dollar in about 35 years ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/crisis-is-coming-for-the-stronger-us-dollar-20220927-p5blak\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/crisis-is-coming-for-the-stronger-us-dollar-20220927-p5blak","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2270298075","content_text":"The US dollar strength has triggered extraordinary outflows from stock markets in Asia and will provide headwinds to earnings in the United States.The strongest United States dollar in about 35 years will head higher over the next few months in tandem with the US Federal Reserve tightening, according to leading strategists.A strong dollar is another bearish factor feeding into the earnings downgrades for US equities by respected Morgan Stanley chief investment officer and strategist, Mike Wilson.Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson says the strong US dollar is another reason for further hits to US earnings. David RoweWilson has been bearish all year and is now predicting the S&P 500 will fall to a range of around 3000 to 3400.He says in a note to clients overnight the likely rise in the US dollar index (DXY) to 118 by the end of the year will add a 10 per cent headwind to S&P 500 earnings in the fourth quarter given the correlation between a stronger dollar and lower earnings.The DXY is up 21 per cent this year to 113.73. Morgan Stanley calculates that every 1 per cent change in the DXY has about a negative 0.5 per cent impact on S&P 500 earnings.Wilson says “the recent move in the US dollar creates an untenable situation for risk assets that historically has ended in a financial or economic crisis, or both”.“While hard to predict such ‘events’, the conditions are in place for one, which would help accelerate the end to this bear market.“Wilson says US companies derive about 30 per cent of sales outside the US and that number exceeds 50 per cent for the tech sector. A year-on-year change in the trade-weighted US dollar is negatively correlated to earnings revisions over time.Most vulnerable sectorsThe sectors most vulnerable to hits from dollar strength are capital goods, software, media and entertainment, materials, energy and tech hardware.Ben Inker, co-head of asset allocation at GMO, says in a note that while an overvalued currency is a negative influence on the performance of equities in that country, the opposite is also true.“By contrast, a cheap currency is a strong equity tailwind in the developed world, leaving developed markets like the euro area and Japan poised to benefit from their undervalued currencies,” Inker says.“To date, the effects of the expensive dollar have not been that noticeable for the US, but the impact has been quickly felt in other countries.“The strong dollar and high commodity prices have pushed some less developed countries into distress.“Still, the valuation of currencies in the emerging world today are attractive enough that even allowing for some poor decision-making (by governments), they should still be a source of equity market support over the next few years.”Severe short-term painBut the promised reversal of the US equity dominance of the last decade is not going to happen without severe pain in the short term.The following areas in the MSCI World Index have experienced equity market declines this year in US dollars as follows: Korea 38 per cent, Taiwan, 36 per cent, China-A 33 per cent, Japan 25 per cent, Philippines 22 per cent, Singapore 21 per cent and Australia 20 per cent.There has been and will continue to be persistent capital outflows from the region driven by higher US term structure, supply-side constraints and latent concerns regarding China’s COVID strategy, according to ExanteData.A note from its analysts this week says ExanteData’s outperformance measure is the highest since March 2020.Also, the firm says many of the potential sources of two-way risk for the US dollar have already materialised, so it is hard to see a bearish turn in the dollar amid increasingly “crisis-like” dynamics in G10 foreign exchange markets.“The key to a dollar turn will be a bottoming in global growth expectations and sustained slowing of US inflation,” the Exante analysts say.Meghan Swiber, from BofA Global Research, says the dollar is surging on the back of the largest year-to-date move in short-term US rates over the past 40 years.“The second largest was in 1981 when the Fed was similarly trying to get inflation under control,” she says.Swabere says further tightening in financial conditions and a turn in the labor market will be required before the Fed stops tightening, which suggests the Fed will overtighten.Oppenheimer Asset Management’s chief investment strategist, John Stoltzfus, says foreign purchases of US assets by investors seeking“safe havens” amid the war in Ukraine as well as expectations of higher rates from the central bank have helped push the US currency higher for most of this year.Fundstrat’s Mark Newton, who is head of technical strategy, says the DXY is in its largest overbought condition on a monthly basis since 2015 and before that, 1985.“While a small sample size, both of those prior occasions resulted in meaningful underperformance in the years to come,” he says.“Overall, it’s unlikely the US dollar runs higher through Q4. I expect a good reversal that should start sometime in October.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.6,"USDindexmain":0.9,"UUP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104151090,"gmtCreate":1664496000871,"gmtModify":1664496004943,"authorId":3578690837330197,"author":{"id":3578690837330197,"idStr":"3578690837330197","authorId":3578690837330197,"name":"Goupppppppp","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9911736435,"type":1,"supId":104115718,"prevId":0,"content":"wrong predict.","text":"wrong predict.","html":"wrong predict."},{"id":104115718,"gmtCreate":1664284878732,"gmtModify":1664284881932,"authorId":3573540190522229,"author":{"id":3573540190522229,"idStr":"3573540190522229","authorId":3573540190522229,"name":"Targarean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/59de1c73df3e7e460bd84cc786850fa6","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.10.11","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9911736435,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">Up 👍🏼</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">Up 👍🏼</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">Up 👍🏼</span>"},{"id":104112483,"gmtCreate":1664263776764,"gmtModify":1664263780368,"authorId":3566532164444643,"author":{"id":3566532164444643,"idStr":"3566532164444643","authorId":3566532164444643,"name":"ZEROHERO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62813b6df1c4722e559d112fadd5486a","vip":2,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 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class=\"s1\">Sideways?</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9911738076,"gmtCreate":1664256428996,"gmtModify":1676537420200,"author":{"id":"3575433293784452","authorId":"3575433293784452","name":"erichosk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dee1aa3a3a3c1814833a4d3f8a5669","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575433293784452","idStr":"3575433293784452"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911738076","repostId":2270298075,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2270298075","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1664255680,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2270298075?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-27 13:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Crisis\" Is Coming for the Stronger US Dollar","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2270298075","media":"The Australian Financial Review","summary":"The US dollar strength has triggered extraordinary outflows from stock markets in Asia and will prov","content":"<div>\n<p>The US dollar strength has triggered extraordinary outflows from stock markets in Asia and will provide headwinds to earnings in the United States.The strongest United States dollar in about 35 years ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/crisis-is-coming-for-the-stronger-us-dollar-20220927-p5blak\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"afr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Crisis\" Is Coming for the Stronger US Dollar</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Crisis\" Is Coming for the Stronger US Dollar\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-27 13:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/crisis-is-coming-for-the-stronger-us-dollar-20220927-p5blak><strong>The Australian Financial Review</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The US dollar strength has triggered extraordinary outflows from stock markets in Asia and will provide headwinds to earnings in the United States.The strongest United States dollar in about 35 years ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/crisis-is-coming-for-the-stronger-us-dollar-20220927-p5blak\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/crisis-is-coming-for-the-stronger-us-dollar-20220927-p5blak","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2270298075","content_text":"The US dollar strength has triggered extraordinary outflows from stock markets in Asia and will provide headwinds to earnings in the United States.The strongest United States dollar in about 35 years will head higher over the next few months in tandem with the US Federal Reserve tightening, according to leading strategists.A strong dollar is another bearish factor feeding into the earnings downgrades for US equities by respected Morgan Stanley chief investment officer and strategist, Mike Wilson.Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson says the strong US dollar is another reason for further hits to US earnings. David RoweWilson has been bearish all year and is now predicting the S&P 500 will fall to a range of around 3000 to 3400.He says in a note to clients overnight the likely rise in the US dollar index (DXY) to 118 by the end of the year will add a 10 per cent headwind to S&P 500 earnings in the fourth quarter given the correlation between a stronger dollar and lower earnings.The DXY is up 21 per cent this year to 113.73. Morgan Stanley calculates that every 1 per cent change in the DXY has about a negative 0.5 per cent impact on S&P 500 earnings.Wilson says “the recent move in the US dollar creates an untenable situation for risk assets that historically has ended in a financial or economic crisis, or both”.“While hard to predict such ‘events’, the conditions are in place for one, which would help accelerate the end to this bear market.“Wilson says US companies derive about 30 per cent of sales outside the US and that number exceeds 50 per cent for the tech sector. A year-on-year change in the trade-weighted US dollar is negatively correlated to earnings revisions over time.Most vulnerable sectorsThe sectors most vulnerable to hits from dollar strength are capital goods, software, media and entertainment, materials, energy and tech hardware.Ben Inker, co-head of asset allocation at GMO, says in a note that while an overvalued currency is a negative influence on the performance of equities in that country, the opposite is also true.“By contrast, a cheap currency is a strong equity tailwind in the developed world, leaving developed markets like the euro area and Japan poised to benefit from their undervalued currencies,” Inker says.“To date, the effects of the expensive dollar have not been that noticeable for the US, but the impact has been quickly felt in other countries.“The strong dollar and high commodity prices have pushed some less developed countries into distress.“Still, the valuation of currencies in the emerging world today are attractive enough that even allowing for some poor decision-making (by governments), they should still be a source of equity market support over the next few years.”Severe short-term painBut the promised reversal of the US equity dominance of the last decade is not going to happen without severe pain in the short term.The following areas in the MSCI World Index have experienced equity market declines this year in US dollars as follows: Korea 38 per cent, Taiwan, 36 per cent, China-A 33 per cent, Japan 25 per cent, Philippines 22 per cent, Singapore 21 per cent and Australia 20 per cent.There has been and will continue to be persistent capital outflows from the region driven by higher US term structure, supply-side constraints and latent concerns regarding China’s COVID strategy, according to ExanteData.A note from its analysts this week says ExanteData’s outperformance measure is the highest since March 2020.Also, the firm says many of the potential sources of two-way risk for the US dollar have already materialised, so it is hard to see a bearish turn in the dollar amid increasingly “crisis-like” dynamics in G10 foreign exchange markets.“The key to a dollar turn will be a bottoming in global growth expectations and sustained slowing of US inflation,” the Exante analysts say.Meghan Swiber, from BofA Global Research, says the dollar is surging on the back of the largest year-to-date move in short-term US rates over the past 40 years.“The second largest was in 1981 when the Fed was similarly trying to get inflation under control,” she says.Swabere says further tightening in financial conditions and a turn in the labor market will be required before the Fed stops tightening, which suggests the Fed will overtighten.Oppenheimer Asset Management’s chief investment strategist, John Stoltzfus, says foreign purchases of US assets by investors seeking“safe havens” amid the war in Ukraine as well as expectations of higher rates from the central bank have helped push the US currency higher for most of this year.Fundstrat’s Mark Newton, who is head of technical strategy, says the DXY is in its largest overbought condition on a monthly basis since 2015 and before that, 1985.“While a small sample size, both of those prior occasions resulted in meaningful underperformance in the years to come,” he says.“Overall, it’s unlikely the US dollar runs higher through Q4. I expect a good reversal that should start sometime in October.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.6,"USDindexmain":0.9,"UUP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104111114,"gmtCreate":1664256434624,"gmtModify":1664256438507,"authorId":3575433293784452,"author":{"id":3575433293784452,"idStr":"3575433293784452","authorId":3575433293784452,"name":"erichosk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-1","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Debut Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.07.24","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9911738076,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>ok</u>","text":"<u>ok</u>","html":"<u>ok</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":59,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2270298075","isCrawlerRequest":true}