On Tuesday, the first trading day after US President Trump took office, US stocks generally rose, but Apple bucked the market and fell, with an intraday decline of 4.6%. Apple was downgraded by two Wall Street analysts and lowered its target price by one analyst. In addition, data showed that Apple's iPhone sales in China fell 18.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.
The following is the latest negative statement of Wall Street institutions on Apple:
- Jefferies downgraded Apple to underperform, becoming the rare Wall Street institution to give Apple a sell-equivalent rating. Only 8.5% of analysts gave a bearish rating and about 63% gave a buy-equivalent rating. Jefferies also lowered Apple's price target to $200.75 from $211.84.
- Loop Capital downgraded Apple to Hold after a previous rating of Buy and a price target of $230.
- While maintaining an overweight rating on Apple, analysts at JPMorgan Chase lowered their price target to $260 from $265, citing caution about the company's prospects.
Jefferies analysts, led by Edison Lee, pointed out:
In the world's largest mobile phone market,iPhone sales are underperforming and not fueled by AI hype,The company's revenue in the first quarter of 2025 is unlikely to meet expectations and may not meet the expectation of operating income growth of 5% in the first quarter of 2025. Apple's guidance for the March quarter may also be disappointing.
Lee also lowered his iPhone 17/18 expectations due to the slowdown in the adoption and commercialization of AI, adding that Apple's AI outlook appears depressed.
Analysts also pointed to weaker-than-expected iPhone and overall consumer electronics sales.
The concerns of JPMorgan analysts include:
The U.S. dollar strengthened while the market had limited demand for Apple products.
Given the current artificial intelligence capabilities, sales of Apple products are flat.
Chinese demand is weak.They expect Apple to continue to lose market share in China because the company has passed the peak of its product cycle,Moreover, Apple's high-end mobile phone models cannot enjoy local government subsidies for low-end mobile phones.
According to the latest data from Counterpoint, China's smartphone sales fell by 3.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, becoming the only quarter in 2024 with a year-on-year decline. In the fourth quarter, Huawei topped the market share list, followed by Xiaomi and Apple. Facing fierce competition brought about by Huawei and other Chinese mobile phone brand manufacturers' expansion in the high-end market, Apple ranked third in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a market share of 17.1%.Apple's iPhone sales in China fell 18.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.
According to data released by market research company Canalys, Indian smartphone market shipments fell by 4% in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 37.2 million units. Among them, vivo maintained the lead with 7.5 million units shipped and 20% market share, followed by Xiaomi and Samsung with 5.7 million units and 5.4 million units respectively. OPPO (excluding OnePlus) and Apple ranked among the top five with 4.2 million and 4 million units respectively, with Apple entering the top five for the first time driven by aggressive promotions and holiday demand.
On January 20, the national subsidy for mobile phones was officially launched.At present, most of Apple's main mobile phone models can enjoy state subsidies, including iPhone15, iPhone16, etc.Some consumers placed an order for an iPhone16 with 256G of memory through the state subsidy, and the price was 5,499 yuan. Compared with the US market,The iPhone 16 after national subsidy is the lowest price in the world and has become Apple's most "fragrant" model.In addition, some netizens found that after the national subsidy, the iPhone13 128G version only costs 2,999 yuan, which is a historically low price. According to estimates, driven by the state subsidy policy, domestic sales of mobile phones are expected to reach 300 million units this year.
According to the analysis, Apple's rating downgrade further indicates that weak iPhone sales are increasingly arousing investors' concern, and the outside world believes that artificial intelligence (AI) has failed to play the expected role of growth catalyst.
Earlier this month, Ming-Chi Kuo of Tianfeng International, the analyst who knows Apple best, said that Apple will face more severe challenges this year, including the almost stagnant growth of iPhone, the lack of contribution from AI services, and the continued shrinkage of China's business. Ming-Chi Kuo believes that the market is overly optimistic and the stock price is at risk of falling. When Ming-Chi Kuo expressed his bearish opinion on Apple, Apple's stock price was at the $236 line.
As of Tuesday's close, Apple fell 3.2% to close at $222.64. Since 2025, Apple's stock price has fallen by 11%.On Tuesday, Apple's market value was surpassed by Nvidia, losing its throne as the world's largest company by market value.
There was no good news from the "Capitol Hill Stock God". Pelosi has recently traded heavily in the stocks of U.S. technology giants, buying call options on Google and Amazon.However, sell Apple and Nvidia。 On the last trading day of 2024, 31,600 shares of Apple common stock were sold, with a transaction value between US $5 million and US $25 million. This is also her largest transaction in the past month.
In addition, Wall Street News learned from the supply chain that Apple folding machine batteries will be made of all-steel shells, and the quantity is two pieces. Apple's folding screen mobile phone will be launched in the third quarter of 2026. At present, the supply chains in mainland China and Taiwan have begun to make preliminary preparations.
Apple will announce its earnings report next Thursday, January 30, after the U.S. stock market closes.
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