Love it or hate it, there's nothing else like Palantir Technologies stock.
Shares have skyrocketed 127% this year thanks to Palantir's exposure to the artificial-intelligence market. The stock has a dedicated base of retail investors who continue to sing its praises despite its hyperinflated valuation.
And while Palantir's "uniqueness" deserves credit, now isn't the time to Buy, according to Mizuho analysts, who reiterated a Neutral rating and $165 price target in a note Monday.
Mizuho recently met with Palantir executives for a demo of Palantir Ontology, the foundational layer of its platforms. The firm also got a look at AI tools such as AI Forward Deployed Engineers, which take on more of the traditionally manual work.
"Palantir's recent execution has been stunning, with material upward revisions across both Commercial and Government," analysts wrote on Monday. It's no exaggeration to say Palantir has earned a reputation as a major player in the world of AI-powered data analytics.
The company's offerings are tailored to clients who have large amounts of data and need a way to organize it. Palantir is most often styled as a federal contractor. The company, headquartered in Denver and domiciled in the U.S., has contracts with government organizations worldwide. At home, that includes several branches of the U.S. military.
However, analysts have noted that revenue attributed to nongovernment clients has steadily been growing. In the second quarter, Palantir's commercial segment saw 93% growth year-over-year and 20% sequentially, compared with 53% and 14%, respectively, for its government business.
Chief Financial Officer Dave Glazer told Mizuho that individual developers have been increasingly signing up for the platform, "an interesting dynamic that we believe should translate to broader adoption, " the firm wrote. "We also note that our recent checks have shown that inbound interest from enterprises continues to rise."
However, it may not be wise to buy Palantir right now. Based on the firm's calculations, Palantir trades at a multiple of 105 times 2025 EV/sales and 84 times 2026 EV/sales. "The stock's multiple remains extreme, dramatically above anything else in software," Mizuho analysts wrote.
The analysts believe the shares could be subject to "material multiple reversion at some point over the next few quarters." Moreover, while commercial growth has been highlighted as a sign of progress, Mizuho's bear case sees it decelerating as customers push back on Palantir's high pricing.
While the firm may be on the fence for now, "Palantir's uniqueness also demands tremendous credit," analysts wrote. The company stands to benefit not just from investors' continued appetite for AI, but from increasing digitization at the federal level.
CEO Alex Karp was full of conviction on the company's latest earnings call in August as he took aim at the company's "haters" and asserted it was "the perfect time for Palantir."
"We are very, very bullish on America," Karp said. "We have some really crucial and important clients internationally, large clients, commercial clients in Europe and also government clients outside of America that we're proud of. But this is an American revolution."
Despite his optimism, most analysts on Wall Street are sidelined for now. Of 32 firms polled by FactSet, 18 rate Palantir at Hold. Ten rate the stock at Buy or the equivalent, and four at Sell.
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