Tesla reports electric vehicle deliveries this week. Two key questions for investors: Will they grow, and will it matter?
The answer to the first question is a solid maybe. Tesla sold about 463,000 cars in the third quarter of 2024. Wall Street currently projects third-quarter 2025 deliveries of about 447,000 vehicles, according to FactSet. That estimate has been relatively stable in recent weeks.
That implies a drop of about 3% from last year’s third quarter. A Tesla researcher referenced by analysts, called Troy Teslike, believes the company will deliver closer to 472,000 vehicles, which would be up about 2% from last year. He’s basing his estimates, like many analysts, on production and registration data from around the globe.
Whether or not Tesla’s sales grow, the third quarter should show improvement. Tesla delivered about 721,000 cars in the first half of 2025, down 13% from the year ago period.
The answer to the second question, if it matters, is probably not.
Coming into Monday trading, Tesla stock was up 31% for the month, with investors increasingly focused on the company’s artificial intelligence opportunities. Tesla launched an AI-trained robo-taxi service in Austin, Texas, in June, and plans to expand it across the country as quickly as possible. It also plans to start selling significant quantities of AI-trained humanoid robots in 2026.
The AI potential has driven several price target increases on the Street, including hikes from RBC, Baird, and Wedbush. The average analyst price target for Tesla stock is about $343 a share, up $30 since the end of August, according to FactSet.
AI might be the future, but the car business still pays the bills, allowing Tesla to spend billions of dollars buying Nvidia chips. Tesla remains profitable, but car sales are likely to decline for the second consecutive year.
The fourth quarter might not turn out as well as the third quarter. EV sales have been boosted recently by the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV purchase tax credit, which has people buying EVs ahead of the deadline. It goes away at the end of September, eliminated in President Donald Trump’s tax and spending plan.
Exactly what losing the credit means for Tesla’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 EV sales is a question for investors to ponder at the end of the year.
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