纽约梅隆银行分析师在一份报告中指出市场已完全消化了美联储本月降息的预期但越来越多的共识认为此次将是鹰式降息这意味着进一步的货币宽松将取决于2026年3月和6月公布的经济数据是否走弱或通胀是否进一步回落。分析师还指出美联储主席即将换届也构成风险因市场将评估新任领导层的政策倾向。此外FOMC将发布点阵图很可能印证委员会内部近期在政策立场上的分歧。预计委员们对2026年政策方向的看法将出现显著分化反映出我们所预见的双向经济风险。
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