By Doug Busch
As investors broaden their horizons beyond U.S. borders, international markets have rewarded the shift with sustained outperformance. In 2025, the iShares MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. ETF's 30% return more than doubled the S&P 500's gain.
Leadership within that advance, however, has been uneven. While some stocks surged, others lagged despite strong franchises and intact long-term tailwinds. History suggests such imbalance to be temporary. Increasingly, the technical backdrop supports that view.
Broad index gains often obscure where the most compelling opportunities may lie, setting the stage for a potential catch-up trade. Below, we highlight three stocks that appear technically primed for a rebound this year.
MercadoLibre, often dubbed the Amazon of Latin America, was glad to put 2025 in the rearview mirror. The stock is up just 8% over the past year and now trades roughly 25% below its most recent 52-week high. Since printing a bearish engulfing candle in the first week of October when shares fell 12% on the heaviest weekly volume in nearly a year, the stock has managed gains in only four weeks.
The longer-term picture, however, offers reasons for optimism. On a monthly basis, December extended a four-month losing streak, only the fourth such occurrence since the company went public in 2007. Worth noting that the prior three instances all emerged near major long-term lows.
From a technical perspective, the stock is now attempting to defend a breakout above the very round $2000 level, which was the pivot in a large ascending triangle that began forming in January 2021 and bottomed near $600 in June 2022. The pattern's measured move projects upside toward $3,400, a target that could come into view by late 2026. Achieving that level would imply roughly 72% upside from current prices. Remain constructive as long as shares hold above $1,875.
MercadoLibre traded around $2106 Monday.
Ferrari, the Italian luxury auto maker, has been stuck in reverse (pun intended) declining 11% over the past year. That underperformance stands in stark contrast to the broader auto space, where General Motors and Ford have rallied roughly 50% and 35%, respectively, over the same period. Even the electric vehicle segment has held its ground, with Rivian up more than 40% over the past three months and Tesla stabilizing after a volatile stretch.
The long term technical picture, however, offers a more constructive setup. Ferrari now trades 28% below its most recent 52-week high set near the very round $500 level. That peak coincided with the break below of a bull flag with the completion of a bearish evening star last October, confirmed by the heaviest monthly volume in nearly eight years. Notably, a doji candle in September provided an early warning signal that upside momentum was faltering.
From here, the stock is approaching a more compelling risk reward zone. An entry near $360 would represent a test of the rising 50-month simple moving average, a level that hasn't been touched since 2022. As long as shares remain above $330, the longer-term trend remains intact. Under that scenario, a recovery toward the $500 area by late 2026 appears achievable, implying roughly 34% upside from current levels.
Ferrari was trading around $371 Monday.
LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, the French luxury retail conglomerate, has held up better than the stocks above, rising 20% over the past year. Even so, LVMH has recovered only about half of its sharp decline from the very round $200 level to $100 between July 2023 and last June. Credit is due for the 50% rebound off the lows, highlighted by gains in 19 of the past 28 weeks.
The monthly chart suggests momentum remains on stocks side. Shares are riding a six-month winning streak that began with a doji candle last July. Before that, capitulation was evident in April and June when the stock registered the heaviest monthly volume on record.
The stock is now working its way back above the 50-month simple moving average. LVMH can be bought at current levels and added to above the $160.07 double-bottom pivot. A move back toward $200 by late 2026 appears achievable, representing roughly 33% upside from here. The bullish thesis remains intact as long as shares hold above $140.
LVMH ADR was trading around $149 Monday.
With sentiment washed out and long-term trends still intact, these international laggards may be closer to a turning point than a breakdown.
Doug Busch is the senior technical analyst at Barron's Investor Circle . His technical view is added to stock picks, including those published exclusively for Investor Circle readers. A glossary of technical terms is updated regularly with new entries.
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 05, 2026 10:47 ET (15:47 GMT)
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