Updates with latest prices
By Anjana Anil
Feb 9 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell by more than 8% on Monday on forecasts for milder weather than previously expected for the rest of the month, erasing the previous session's gains.
Gas futures for March delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 28.4 cents, or 8.3%, to $3.138 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
On Friday, the contract hit a session high of $3.659 per mmBtu.
"The strong gas price advance through most of last week was obviously reversed by continued above normal temperature forecasts that have been extended into the last week of this month," Ritterbusch and associates said in a note.
Meteorologists forecast warmer than normal temperatures nationwide through February 23, with Heating Degree Days falling from 374 on Friday to 358 on Monday. HDDs measure energy demand to heat buildings.
Colder weather earlier in the winter in the U.S. drove heavy withdrawals from underground storage, but forecasts now point to easing demand. A Reuters poll shows U.S. utilities likely withdrew 249 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas in the week ended February 6.
This compares to a record 360 bcf pulled out of storage during the week ended January 30 to meet surging heating demand during an Arctic blast, putting stockpiles on track to drop from around 5% above normal during the week ended January 23 to around 6% below normal during the week ended February 6. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 106.99 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 142.5 bcfd this week to 130 bcfd next week.
Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.3 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.
"While we continue to cite an expected upswing in export activity to a record pace in the coming weeks/months, recent patterns strongly suggest that this increase in demand could be countered by stronger production now that well freeze-offs are being largely taken off the table as winter begins to wind down," Ritterbusch added.
Dutch and British wholesale gas prices also fell on Monday morning on forecasts for milder temperatures. NG/EU
Week ended Feb 6 Forecast | Week ended Jan 30 Actual | Year ago Feb 6 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 6 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -249 | -360 | -111 | -146 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,214 | 2,463 | 2,311 | 2,344 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -5.5% | -1.1% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.187 | 3.422 | - | - | - |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.39 | 12.10 | - | - | - |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 11.105 | 11.105 | - | - | - |
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System $(GFS)$ Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 358 | 374 | 340 | 395 | 397 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 6 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 364 | 378 | 345 | 402 | 402 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 107.1 | 107.9 | 108.4 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 10.9 | 9.7 | 9.0 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | N/A | N/A |
Total U.S. Supply | 118.1 | 117.7 | 117.3 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.4 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.2 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. Commercial | 20.9 | 17.5 | 14.3 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. Residential | 35.7 | 28.9 | 23.8 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. Power Plant | 39.6 | 33.6 | 31.3 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. Industrial | 26.8 | 25.5 | 24.3 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.7 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | N/A | N/A |
Total U.S. Consumption | 131.9 | 113.9 | 101.9 | N/A | N/A |
Total U.S. Demand | 159.8 | 142.5 | 130.0 | N/A | N/A |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 93 | 94 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 92 | 93 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 97 | 99 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Feb 6 | Week ended Jan 30 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 9 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
40 | 39 | 40 | 42 | 41 | |
Coal | 22 | 22 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 18 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 4.37 | 5.28 | 4.19 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 17.42 | 8.32 | 4.90 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.29 | 2.10 | 3.78 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 3.8 | 3.56 | 4.03 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 3.97 | 3.69 | 4.19 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 36.55 | 18.71 | 13.65 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.94 | 2.77 | 4.19 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -0.98 | -0.10 | 2.76 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.64 | 1.31 | 1.53 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 305.43 | 199.54 | 134.58 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 218.96 | 131.58 | 53.89 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 21.71 | 25.93 | 67.87 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 23.12 | 22.06 | 29.05 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 27.28 | 23.02 | 25.19 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
(Reporting by Anjana Anil and Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Alexander Smith and Deepa Babington)
((Anjana.Anil@thomsonreuters.com;))
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