Oil Price Surge From Iran Conflict Could Shave GDP Growth in Major Economies -- Market Talk

Dow Jones03-02 10:57

0257 GMT - A temporary surge in oil prices following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran could shave 0.1 ppt-0.3 ppt off real GDP growth in several major economies, analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit, say in a note. Inflation could also rise by 1.0 ppt-2.5 ppt. Growth in the Gulf region is likely to be hardest hit due to its proximity to the conflict. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz affect both hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon trade, which would likely offset any oil output increases by OPEC producers. The supply shock may trigger capital outflows from emerging markets, prompting some central banks to halt easing cycles early and raise rates. Importers of energy from the strait such as Japan and China could also face shortages, BMI adds.(jason.chau@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 01, 2026 21:57 ET (02:57 GMT)

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