By Mackenzie Tatananni
Investors might be missing the forest for the trees when it comes to CoreWeave, as details in a new filing point to an imminent -- and massive -- backlog beat for the second quarter.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brett Knoblauch wrote Tuesday that "equity investors have largely ignored" certain information from CoreWeave's bond offering memorandum, which was filed at the end of last week.
He specifically pointed to granular internal metrics that spotlight the company's rapid clip of contract signings for the second quarter, such as backlog growth and run-rate Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, deprecation, and amortization). As a result of those buried figures, Knoblauch believes CoreWeave "is set to materially beat consensus backlog estimates" for the second quarter.
In the filing, CoreWeave disclosed a run-rate Ebitda of $18.758 billion, up from the $16.098 billion reported in its April offering memorandum. Extrapolating from these figures, Knoblauch estimates CoreWeave's current backlog could reach $125 billion as of early June -- though he notes the offering memorandum only covers about 80% of the quarter.
If the company continues to add backlog "at a consistent pace," he projects the number could cross $131 billion by the quarter's end on June 30. If the company continues to add backlog "at a consistent pace," he projects the number could cross $131 billion by the quarter's end on June 30.
That would comfortably eclipse last quarter's backlog of $99.4 billion as well as Wall Street's consensus estimate of $104.4 billion. "As such, we get the sense that CoreWeave could be gearing up for a sizable beat when it comes to backlog," Knoblauch wrote.
Another detail that analysts seem to have looked over is projected gross debt -- the debt CoreWeave must take on to meet its backlog obligations. According to the offering memorandum, the company estimates its gross debt will reach $68.5 billion, with net debt coming in at $58.3 billion.
Considering CoreWeave's current share price and equity value, Knoblauch says the market is "woefully undervaluing" not just neoclouds -- specialized providers tailored for artificial-intelligence compute -- but CoreWeave in particular. He rates the stock at Overweight with a $167 price target.
And Knoblauch isn't CoreWeave's only cheerleader. Just last week, Macquarie upgraded shares to Outperform from Neutral with a $125 price target, up from $90. The firm argued that CoreWeave was poised to "increasingly become a structural player into the next decade," flagging its deals with Meta Platforms and OpenAI.
The stock is set to join the Nasdaq 100 later this month along with fellow cloud provider Nebius Group, Rocket Lab, and semiconductor companies Astera Labs and Teradyne. The index's quarterly rebalance is set to go into effect before the opening bell on June 22.
Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 16, 2026 11:30 ET (15:30 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments