The SpaceX phone rout might be coming to an end for shares of the three largest U.S. cellular service providers, but there may still be more pain on the way for Verizon Communications, AT&T, and T-Mobile.
The possibility of Elon Musk's SpaceX disrupting the telecommunications sector has weighed on shares of the three carriers this week -- wiping out $18.12 billion in market value for Verizon, $14.31 billion for AT&T, and $11.22 billion for T-Mobile.
Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile have come under pressure after Bloomberg reported late Friday that Charter Communications has held high-level discussions with SpaceX about possibly partnering on a consumer mobile phone.
Charter declined to comment to Barron's and SpaceX didn't respond to multiple requests for comment.
However, all three stocks appeared set to at least slow their recent declines. Shares of Verizon and AT&T fell 0.9% and 0.4%, respectively, on Wednesday, while those of T-Mobile rose 3%.
Despite the apparent slowdown in selling on Wednesday, BNP Paribas noted on Tuesday that three stocks aren't in the clear just yet. Analysts at the multinational bank wrote that the "overhang on wireless names around SpaceX may well persist" until a couple key clarifying events take place.
The first event outlined by BNP Paribas is the result of the Federal Communications Commission's 2027 auction of mid-band wireless spectrum, known as the Upper C-Band. That auction, which will take place no later than July 2027, aims to significantly increase the amount of wireless spectrum in the U.S. with new entrants into the space.
The second is if, or when, SpaceX and T-Mobile renew their current direct-to-cell satellite deal, which allows T-Mobile users to connect to SpaceX's Starlink service with their smartphones -- or if SpaceX instead signs a similar deal with Verizon or AT&T, according to BNP Paribas. The bank's analysts noted that if SpaceX inks a partnership with Verizon or AT&T, such a move could potentially "be a sign of détente in tensions" between Musk and the big three carriers.
Suffice it to say, there are still many unknowns around how the SpaceX war with the cellular service providers will turn out.
Even before news of a possible mobile phone offer, SpaceX's Starlink -- which currently has about 12 million subscribers -- was making investors rethink Verizon, AT&T, Comcast, and Charter Communications.
"SpaceX will disrupt the $1.6T communications industry," wrote Oppenheimer analyst Tim Horan in a client note in June.
Wall Street is also beginning to broadly believe that Starlink could take market share from Comcast and Charter Communications, the two leading cable internet providers, and AT&T and Verizon Communication, which are the largest internet services via fiber.
NewStreet Research analyst Blair Levin on Friday wrote that SpaceX's potential monopoly on satellites and rocket launches could squeeze the big three wireless providers and that Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile are pushing back. All three are negotiating a joint venture to facilitate using satellite services to backup cellular services, AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon announced in May.
Add that to the potential for Charter to partner with SpaceX on a mobile phone, and investors have been seriously fretting this week.
A Charter-SpaceX mobile phone would give Charter exposure to Musk's Starlink business and growing subscriber base -- and it may also mean consumers moving away from cellular service providers like Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile.
However, BNP Paribas attempted to bring some sobriety to the situation, noting Monday that a SpaceX mobile phone would fall short of supplanting "the role of the Big Three carriers."
"There is no way for a Charter-SpaceX partnership to remove the role of terrestrial cellular networks in the U.S. connectivity market. Given the equity moves today though, clearly the mere speculation is a headwind for the wireless names," the analysts wrote.
Write to Kit Norton at kit.norton@barrons.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 01, 2026 12:26 ET (16:26 GMT)
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