HSBC says 'explosive' dollar rally is among biggest pain trades

Ruth Carson / Bloomberg06-30 08:08

A sharp rise in the dollar may emerge as one of the biggest "pain trades" in the second half of the year, according to HSBC Holdings plc.(June 30): A sharp rise in the dollar may emerge as one of the ...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2648561072?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2026-06-30 08:08","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2648561072","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"HSBC says 'explosive' dollar rally is among biggest pain trades","media":"Ruth Carson / Bloomberg","content":"<div>\n<p>A sharp rise in the dollar may emerge as one of the biggest \"pain trades\" in the second half of the year, according to HSBC Holdings plc.(June 30): A sharp rise in the dollar may emerge as one of the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/currencies/hsbc-says-explosive-dollar-rally-among-biggest-pain-trades?utm_source=Blog&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=Tiger_Brokers_app_RSS\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"edge_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>HSBC says 'explosive' dollar rally is among biggest pain trades</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHSBC says 'explosive' dollar rally is among biggest pain trades\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-30 08:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/currencies/hsbc-says-explosive-dollar-rally-among-biggest-pain-trades?utm_source=Blog&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=Tiger_Brokers_app_RSS><strong>Ruth Carson / Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A sharp rise in the dollar may emerge as one of the biggest \"pain trades\" in the second half of the year, according to HSBC Holdings plc.(June 30): A sharp rise in the dollar may emerge as one of the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/currencies/hsbc-says-explosive-dollar-rally-among-biggest-pain-trades?utm_source=Blog&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=Tiger_Brokers_app_RSS\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"KBE","symbol_name":"银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/currencies/hsbc-says-explosive-dollar-rally-among-biggest-pain-trades?utm_source=Blog&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=Tiger_Brokers_app_RSS","article_id":"2648561072","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"edge_highlight","url":"https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/currencies/hsbc-says-explosive-dollar-rally-among-biggest-pain-trades?utm_source=Blog&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=Tiger_Brokers_app_RSS","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2648561072","pubTimestamp":1782778138,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"edge_highlight","name":"Edge"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"A sharp rise in the dollar may emerge as one of the biggest \"pain trades\" in the second half of the year, according to HSBC Holdings plc.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"theedgesingapore.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"KBE":"银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","VGLT":"美国长期国债ETF-Vanguard","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","BOND":"Pimco Total Return ETF","LQD":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债","UBT":"债券20+美国债-ProShares两倍做多","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","DBND":"DoubleLine Opportunistic Bond ETF","VGIT":"中期国债ETF-Vanguard","TBIL":"US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF","UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB","TLH":"iShares安硕10-20年国债ETF","NGHT":"Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF","JPST":"JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF","GOLY":"Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","GBIL":"Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF","TYO":"3倍做空7-10年期国债ETF-Direxion","VGSH":"美国短期国债ETF-Vanguard","BIL":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays美国1-3月国债","BSV":"短期国债指数ETF-Vanguard","SHV":"美国短期国债ETF-iShares","KRE":"区域银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW","FAZ":"三倍做空金融ETF-Direxion","VCSH":"美国短期公司债-Vanguard","TIP":"通胀债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays","XLF":"金融ETF","MUB":"美国市政债ETF-iShares","UDN":"做空美元指数-PowerShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","SCHO":"嘉信短期美国国债ETF","PBDC":"Putnam Bdc Income ETF","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","VFH":"Vanguard Financials ETF","VCIT":"美国中期公司债-Vanguard","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","EDV":"美国延期国债ETF-Vanguard","TBT":"债券20+美国债指数ETF-ProShares两倍做空","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF","USHY":"iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF","KRX":"KBW区域银行业指数","HSBC":"汇丰","ZROZ":"PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S","MINT":"PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Exchange-Traded Fund","AGG":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays综合国债","SKRE":"TUTTLE CAPITAL DAILY 2X INVERSE REGIONAL BANKS ETF"},"translate_title":"汇丰银行表示美元“爆炸性”上涨是最痛苦的交易之一","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TYO":0.71,"SKRE":0.71,"HSBC":1.5,"UBT":0.71,"JPST":0.71,"UDN":0.71,"HYG":0.71,"BIL":0.71,"TIP":0.71,"SHV":0.71,"SCHO":0.71,"KRE":0.6,"BOND":0.71,"ZROZ":0.71,"SHY":0.71,"UBmain":0.6,"TMF":0.8,"GOLY":0.71,"TNmain":0.6,"UUP":0.71,"BOXX":0.71,"BND":0.71,"VGSH":0.71,"FAZ":0.71,"VGLT":0.71,"VCSH":0.71,"IEI":0.71,"GOVT":0.71,"BSV":0.71,"XLF":0.6,"PBDC":0.71,"KRX":0.6,"LQD":0.71,"VFH":0.6,"ZFmain":0.6,"MINT":0.71,"VCIT":0.71,"EDV":0.71,"GBIL":0.71,"DBND":0.71,"KBE":0.71,"NGHT":0.71,"TBT":0.71,"USHY":0.71,"TLH":0.71,"MUB":0.71,"VGIT":0.71,"TLTW":0.71,"TBIL":0.71,"AGG":0.71},"content_text":"A sharp rise in the dollar may emerge as one of the biggest \"pain trades\" in the second half of the year, according to HSBC Holdings plc.(June 30): A sharp rise in the dollar may emerge as one of the biggest \"pain trades\" in the second half of the year, according to HSBC Holdings plc.\nThe bank expects the dollar to strengthen gradually through the first half of 2027, and warns the rally could become \"explosive\" if the Federal Reserve (Fed) signals it's prepared to tighten policy more than markets have priced in and if geopolitical tensions flare up again.\nThe risk has grown since the Fed's June meeting, where policymakers kept the focus firmly on inflation and offered little forward guidance. This has pushed markets' attention back to interest-rate differentials and helped the dollar strengthen against every major currency over the past two weeks.\n\"A stronger dollar would be painful, but we see the 'pain trade' in the FX market taking the form of a more explosive period of USD strength,\" analysts including Paul Mackel said in a June 29 report.\nBloomberg's dollar gauge climbed to a seven-month high earlier in June, buoyed by Fed's message and robust US economic data. Meanwhile, expectations for tighter policy elsewhere are fading. Europe's outlook has softened as oil prices retreat, while the yen has hit a 40-year low on concerns the government wants the Bank of Japan to go slow on further rate increases. \n\nHedge funds have boosted bullish bets on the greenback to a 16-month high, a sign investors are increasingly expecting further gains.\nAnother pain trade that HSBC flagged is a reversal in the US Treasury market. Investors started the year expecting the yield curve to steepen as the Fed looked set to keep cutting rates. But sticky inflation, a resilient labour market and a more hawkish Fed have flattened the curve instead.\nYields on two-year Treasuries, among those most sensitive to policy changes, have risen more than 60 basis points this year, compared with about 20 basis points for 10-year yields.\nThat has left many investors positioned for further flattening. But HSBC warns those bets could quickly unravel if the economy weakens enough to push the Fed toward easing, triggering a renewed steepening of the yield curve.\n\"Though positioning in flatteners may not be quite as crowded as steepeners were at the start of the year, we think curve steepening would now represent a pain trade for markets,\" strategists including Dhiraj Narula wrote in the note. \nUploaded by Chng Shear Lane","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.44.1","shortVersion":"4.44.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2648561072","isCrawlerRequest":true}