Bernstein Slashes Circle Target to $140: Is 118% Upside Still Realistic?

Benzinga07-30

Bernstein cut its price target on Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL) to $140 from $190 Wednesday but kept its Outperform rating, saying the Open USD consortium threat that hammered the stock will fade....

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Bernstein kept its 10-year USDC supply growth rate at 32%, with total stablecoin supply expected to reach $4 trillion by 2035 and Circle holding roughly a 30% share.\nBernstein pushed back, noting Circle has been signing memorandums of understanding with the same entities named in the alliance.\nA Samsung official said there were no formal consultations on Open USD and the company did not know what role it would play, a comment Bernstein read as evidence the consortium lacks real cohesion. \nVisa management said on its latest earnings call it would remain multi-coin and multi-chain rather than backing a single stablecoin.\nCircle and Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) agreed in May to redirect roughly 90% of reserve income earned on USDC held on Hyperliquid back to the exchange, according to the note.\nUSDC balances on Hyperliquid climbed from $5 billion to more than $6 billion, with roughly $190 million in annual reserve income flowing to the exchange. The full margin impact hits in Q3.\nCircle has had two major positive developments in two weeks that the stock ignored. Circle’s national trust bank approval on July 15 sent CRCL down 4.8% that day, as Benzinga reported. \nRecent IBM patent acquisition, which made Circle the largest blockchain patent holder in the US, produced a similar non-reaction.\nTwo milestones in two weeks and CRCL is still pressing into its last support zone before the post-IPO base breaks entirely.\nCRCL drops to $62.75 Wednesday, pressing into the $60 to $62 demand zone, the last meaningful support before the stock loses its post-IPO base entirely. \nAll four major EMAs sit overhead as resistance: 20-day at $66.48, 50-day at $76.18, 100-day at $84.91, and 200-day at $100.40.\nImage: Shutterstock\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.46.0","shortVersion":"4.46.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2655890294","isCrawlerRequest":true}