Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

U.S. stock futures are posting slight gains heading into Friday morning as investors weigh rising geopolitical risks against a backdrop of manageable domestic inflation and resilient financial conditions.

The Polymarket (CRYPTO: POL) crowd is leaning bullish for the Aug. 21 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 21?” contract currently reflects a 65% chance of a higher open.

Why That Number Matters

Traders are balancing favorable domestic conditions against severe escalations in the Middle East:

• Positive Index Futures: Equity futures are pointing to a slightly positive open. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.08%, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.20%. Dow Jones futures also ticked up 0.05%, while Russell 2000 futures rose 0.33%.
• Geopolitics & Energy: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the U.S. will impose “the toughest sanctions in history” on Iran in response to the ongoing conflict. This follows President Donald Trump’s earlier threat of “Economic Warfare” and “tremendous” consequences for any nations aiding Tehran. Despite these historic threats, oil prices pulled back slightly; Brent crude futures traded lower at $93.24 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined to $86.18 a barrel.
• Economic Data & Earnings: Investors are awaiting August’s S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI and flash U.S. services PMI data at 9:45 a.m. ET. Friday’s earnings calendar is on the lighter side but includes reports from KE Holdings Inc. ADR (NYSE:BEKE), BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings Inc. (NYSE:BJ), and Buckle Inc. (NYSE:BKE).

The Bull Case and Market Outlook

Despite the persistent geopolitical noise and elevated Treasury yields, underlying macroeconomic forces continue to support risk appetite. According to Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist for LPL Financial, three key developments are stabilizing markets. First, Japan’s continued robust demand for U.S. Treasuries helps support global capital markets.

Second, U.S. financial conditions remain easier and exhibit lower stress than most major developed and emerging markets. Third, inflation conditions have notably improved since peaking in May, keeping expectations anchored.

Roach suggests that the foundations of the current expansion remain intact, meaning a defensive posture isn’t warranted right now. Instead, investors appear focused on a global macro backdrop that remains more constructive than anticipated, allowing markets to absorb external shocks with limited disruption.

How the Previous Bet Played Out

The Aug. 20 Polymarket contract resolved “Down”. The contract recorded $60,481 in total trading volume.

On Thursday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed lower. The SPY was down 0.84% to $762.60, while the QQQ declined by 0.72% to $710.93. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), also ended 1.27% lower at $527.51.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Photo courtesy: Shutterstock