SpaceX's lead in the space race is enormous-and it wants to win the AI race, too.
Thursday, CEO Elon Musk reviewed where his AI company started, where it is, and where it is going. "Our AI efforts are only 3 years old, versus six and 10 years old for Anthropic and OpenAI," he tweeted on X. "If our second derivative remains strong, SpaceX will reach pole position in about 6 months."
Second derivative refers to the change in the growth rate. Growth is seen as good. Accelerating growth is seen as better.
"Hardware is hard," he added. "Bringing massive compute online rapidly is incredibly difficult. SpaceX has demonstrated exceptional ability in this regard and will only get better."
SpaceX built its Colossus I data center in only 122 days. It's running 230,000 Nvidia chips, according to Musk. Its Colossus II data center is running 555,000 Nvidia chips, and SpaceX is ramping up capacity. Musk says another 220,000 chips will be operational next week, another 220,000 in November, and another 220,000 in December "if we get lucky."
Colossus II capacity is slated to more than double by the end of the year. SpaceX ended the second quarter with about 1.4 gigawatts of AI computing capacity, up 250% year over year. (AI computing is often measured by the amount of electricity computers draw.)
Computing capacity by the end of 2026 should be about two gigawatts, and SpaceX hopes to have up to 10 gigawatts running by the end of 2027, implying 400% growth. That's impressive acceleration-if the company can pull it off.
There are reasons to believe it can. For starters, there is Colossus I's turnaround time. "SpaceX has proven capabilities in scaling [electricity-generating] solutions faster and cheaper than its competitors," wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Byrd in a recent report. "We view this as a key competitive advantage."
SpaceX's space business is another reason. The company accounts for roughly half of global space launches and, with its superior rocket capacity, far more than half of total weight put into space. That launch lead is set to extend when SpaceX's huge, fully reusable rocket, Starship, is operational. Starship's 14th test is slated for Sept. 28.
By the end of 2027, Starship could be launching AI satellites into space. That's another way SpaceX plans to win. Space-based AI compute could be cheaper than terrestrial data centers if launch costs are low enough.
The sun, after all, doesn't send a utility bill for powering the computers.
SpaceX stock was up 0.8% in premarket trading at $149.20, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.
Musk's tweets are useful reminders, and the goals are ambitious, but frankly, they represent what investors expect from the company.
Coming into Friday trading, SpaceX stock was down about 3% for the week.
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