I suspect a situation mirrorin

2021-07-01

I suspect a situation mirroring Japan may happen - hit ATHs and then trade down for >10 years due to poor fed policy

The S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

IsaacYap90
2021-07-01
IsaacYap90
随着6月接近尾声，标普500以14.4%的涨幅结束了2021年上半年。自1998年以来，只有2019年上半年17.4%的涨幅更大。

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":158177349,"tweetId":"158177349","gmtCreate":1625141236981,"gmtModify":1703736949384,"author":{"id":3581473251371020,"idStr":"3581473251371020","authorId":3581473251371020,"authorIdStr":"3581473251371020","name":"sq26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65bfb2cbaaa403e595749d5b001c7b6c","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":11,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>I suspect a situation mirroring Japan may happen - hit ATHs and then trade down for &gt;10 years due to poor fed policy</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>I suspect a situation mirroring Japan may happen - hit ATHs and then trade down for &gt;10 years due to poor fed policy</p></body></html>","text":"I suspect a situation mirroring Japan may happen - hit ATHs and then trade down for >10 years due to poor fed policy","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158177349","repostId":1106223449,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106223449","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625122086,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106223449?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 14:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106223449","media":"Barrons","summary":"Since 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.\nThe S&P 5","content":"<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d70d0323609e9ce596a9a90e475422d1\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Since 1979, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.</span></p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 closed its second-best first half since the dot-com bubble. Don’t be surprised if the stock market keeps on rising.</p>\n<p>With June coming to an end, the S&amp;P 500 finished the first half of 2021 with a gain of 14.4%. Since 1998, only 2019’s 17.4% first-half surge has been larger.</p>\n<p>The market got a boost from Covid-19 vaccinations, which have helped the U.S. economy reopen, while trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus have helped shore up demand. The gains continued even as concerns about inflation have increased speculation that the Federal Reserve would be forced to take steps to slow the economy.</p>\n<p>The combination of big gains and a more hawkish Fed have raised concerns that the market has become too complacent. If inflation continues to run hot for long enough, the central bank could be forced to act more quickly than the market expects—and&nbsp;cause stocks to tumble. Others worry that&nbsp;U.S. economic growth could slow faster than investors anticipate, causing a pullback in the process.</p>\n<p>For those who take that view, there is no better time to back away from the stock market than the present. History suggests otherwise.</p>\n<p>Since 1979, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year, and the index has gone on to average a 6.3% gain over the second half of the year. What’s more, the index finished the second half of the year higher In 11 of those instances, or 79% of the time.</p>\n<p>Even the losses, when they occurred, weren’t all that bad. The S&amp;P 500 dropped 1.9% in the second half of 1983 and 3.5% during the last six months of 1986.</p>\n<p>The one exception was the last six months of 1987 when the index fell 19% during the second half of the year. That period included Black Monday, when the S&amp;P 500 dropped 20% in one day, still a record loss. While selling linked to so-called&nbsp;portfolio insurance&nbsp;was ultimately blamed for the size and speed of the loss, the second half of 1987 was&nbsp;a period of rising bond yields and high stock-market valuations, just like the first half of 2021.</p>\n<p>Still, the market has been acting like it wants to go higher, not lower. Pullbacks, a normal event in the midst of bull runs, have been mild in 2021, with the largest drops being less than 4%. “What the [S&amp;P 500] has done throughout 2021 is pick itself up when and where it has needed to, maintaining an uptrend all along,” writes Frank&nbsp;Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet.</p>\n<p>That 6.3% average second-half rise would push the S&amp;P 500’s full-year gain to around 23%. That would represent a “textbook [market] recovery” from a recession, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.</p>\n<p>For now, at least, the path of least resistance is higher.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb229b2e05d59b9c126d464a7d771bb\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"647\"></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-01 14:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-futures-crash-gains-51625071996?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Since 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.\nThe S&P 500 closed its second-best first half since the dot-com bubble. Don’t be surprised if the stock ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-futures-crash-gains-51625071996?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-futures-crash-gains-51625071996?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106223449","content_text":"Since 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.\nThe S&P 500 closed its second-best first half since the dot-com bubble. Don’t be surprised if the stock market keeps on rising.\nWith June coming to an end, the S&P 500 finished the first half of 2021 with a gain of 14.4%. Since 1998, only 2019’s 17.4% first-half surge has been larger.\nThe market got a boost from Covid-19 vaccinations, which have helped the U.S. economy reopen, while trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus have helped shore up demand. The gains continued even as concerns about inflation have increased speculation that the Federal Reserve would be forced to take steps to slow the economy.\nThe combination of big gains and a more hawkish Fed have raised concerns that the market has become too complacent. If inflation continues to run hot for long enough, the central bank could be forced to act more quickly than the market expects—and cause stocks to tumble. Others worry that U.S. economic growth could slow faster than investors anticipate, causing a pullback in the process.\nFor those who take that view, there is no better time to back away from the stock market than the present. History suggests otherwise.\nSince 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year, and the index has gone on to average a 6.3% gain over the second half of the year. What’s more, the index finished the second half of the year higher In 11 of those instances, or 79% of the time.\nEven the losses, when they occurred, weren’t all that bad. The S&P 500 dropped 1.9% in the second half of 1983 and 3.5% during the last six months of 1986.\nThe one exception was the last six months of 1987 when the index fell 19% during the second half of the year. That period included Black Monday, when the S&P 500 dropped 20% in one day, still a record loss. While selling linked to so-called portfolio insurance was ultimately blamed for the size and speed of the loss, the second half of 1987 was a period of rising bond yields and high stock-market valuations, just like the first half of 2021.\nStill, the market has been acting like it wants to go higher, not lower. Pullbacks, a normal event in the midst of bull runs, have been mild in 2021, with the largest drops being less than 4%. “What the [S&P 500] has done throughout 2021 is pick itself up when and where it has needed to, maintaining an uptrend all along,” writes Frank Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet.\nThat 6.3% average second-half rise would push the S&P 500’s full-year gain to around 23%. That would represent a “textbook [market] recovery” from a recession, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.\nFor now, at least, the path of least resistance is higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1013,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":94,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5091798,"commentId":"5091798","gmtCreate":1625141693724,"gmtModify":1663230386834,"authorId":3583568085402852,"author":{"id":3583568085402852,"idStr":"3583568085402852","authorId":3583568085402852,"name":"IsaacYap90","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f66d0266826bb209ee22688d7bbde5","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.10.08","exceedPercentage":"80.43%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":158177349,"objectIdStr":"158177349","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"随着6月接近尾声，标普500以14.4%的涨幅结束了2021年上半年。自1998年以来，只有2019年上半年17.4%的涨幅更大。","text":"随着6月接近尾声，标普500以14.4%的涨幅结束了2021年上半年。自1998年以来，只有2019年上半年17.4%的涨幅更大。","html":"随着6月接近尾声，标普500以14.4%的涨幅结束了2021年上半年。自1998年以来，只有2019年上半年17.4%的涨幅更大。","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/158177349"}