Is PLTR's surge due to Isreali War?

PLTR surged 4.5% yesterday, many people believe it's due to the Israel-Palestine conflict. Well, companies that provide national security information should benefit from such situations. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$

However, are national security orders really that easy to come by and go away? Apparently not.

It is believed that Hamas attack was a "major failure of the Israeli intelligence agencies," and Israeli intelligence has been cooperating with Palantir since 2015. If that's the case, why didn't PLTR help Israel predict this attack?

As an investor, the question to consider is the issue of government orders.

• If PLTR predicted it but Israel didn't take it seriously, will Israel continue to use PLTR or increase order amounts in the future? There's a high probability that they will.

• If PLTR didn't predict it, will Israel continue to use PLTR's services? It depends on whether there are better providers than PLTR, and if not in the short term, Israel is likely to continue using PLTR's services.

So, fundamentally, whether PLTR is responsible for this conflict or not, there's a high probability that these orders will continue in the future. It may also stimulate other American allies to join in procurement orders.

However, government orders are part of the defense budget, and they are not easily revoked, which is the most stable aspect of PLTR's performance, so growth is also firmly limited.

So, what factors are more likely to affect investors' sentiment towards PLTR?

The answer lies in commercial orders.

Yesterday, PLTR may have a chance to win the contract for the reform of the UK National Health Service, where it will help the organization analyze medical data, detect patterns, and implement overall reforms.

This is the main driver of fundamental optimism. Of course, stock price changes reflect investors' expectations of the company's future market value sentiment.

As long as more investors believe that "geopolitical crises will benefit PLTR," regardless of whether it is actually beneficial or not, there will be more buying pressure, driving up stock prices. Of course, institutions that are not "Buy and Hold" are likely to be liquidated after the sentiment subsides.