Tracy Ernest
2024-11-26

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$

One of the most frustrating things in the market is "expectations not materializing."

This has caused most of the capital invested in the NV chain, based on a positive outlook for fundamentals, to choose to stay on the sidelines or temporarily exit (hence, it's not a sell-off).

Trump is highly likely to win, but he won't take office until next year. During this interim period, he will repeatedly make provocative statements (the first being his victory speech) targeting tariff issues and international free trade policies.

Eventually, he will undoubtedly use these issues as leverage to negotiate with us further (that's a matter for the future).

Meanwhile, expectations for U.S. tech stocks will still rise, along with gold and Bitcoin, as his presidency implies a strong dollar and potential monetary easing.

However, we should recall his previous remarks on chip policy, where he mentioned TSMC. That same night, TSMC's stock dropped by 4 points. (Keep in mind, U.S. investment banks are collectively long on TSMC while shorting all of TSMC's competitors, as they consider them to lack competitiveness.)

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