10Y Treasury Yield May Hit 5%? Is Rate Cut Possible This Year?

The data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Tuesday showed that service sector growth in December exceeded expectations, while job vacancies in November surged to a six-month high.

Inflation pressure persists? No rate cuts in 2025?

These two data points have intensified market concerns about a tight labor market and persistent inflationary pressures, diminishing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates this year.

Goldman Sachs even believes the Fed won't cut rates in 2025.

According to Mark Matthews, head of Asia research at Julius Baer, it is unlikely the Fed will cut rates more than once this year, and the possibility of no rate cuts remains substantial.

Were the market's performance and analysts' views too cautious?

Could 10Y US Treasury yields break 5%? Continued rise could hurt risk assets?

On January 7, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond rose further to 4.919%, the highest level in 14 months. The 10-year yield climbed to 4.695%, the highest since April of last year. $US10Y(US10Y.BOND)$

Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal grounds for imposing widespread tariffs. Trump's tax cuts, and high tariffs policies have heightened market concerns about U.S. inflation risks.

According to options data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on January 7, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to rise to 5% by the end of February.

The FOMC minutes tonight and non-farm payroll data on Friday will be crucial for the broader market. $.SPX(.SPX)$

Will US 10Y treasury yields reach 5%?

Does it mean a good opportunity for US Treasuries?

Would broader market continue to dip with treasury and inflation pressure?

How many rate cuts do you expect in 2025?

Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~