$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ 🅱🅴🅰🆁🅸🆂🅷

🩸🎩🌀 Quantum Conundrum: The Reckoning of Rigetti Computing’s Descent 🌀🎩🩸

The quantum realm, long hailed as the frontier of technological advancement, has shown its fragility. Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) exemplifies this, tumbling from aspirational heights to harsh realities. I flagged Rigetti’s precarious positioning just weeks ago, cautioning it was in “nosebleed territory.” Now, that prediction has turned into a sobering reality, a shift to “full bleed”🩸🩸🩸🩸🩸🩸 that has been both swift and merciless.

📉 The Catalyst for Decline

As of 13 Jan 2025, Rigetti’s stock price plunged to $6.61, a jaw-dropping 25.99% single-day loss, wiping nearly $645M from its market cap. The turning point came with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s CES 2025 pronouncement that practical quantum computing remains 15 to 30 years away.

This triggered a 45% cumulative drop in Rigetti’s share price over recent days, alongside sharp corrections across the quantum sector. Even Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg reportedly aligned with Huang’s timeline, adding weight to the idea that quantum’s practical adoption may remain decades off. For Rigetti and others, the fallout is a stark reminder of the gulf between speculative promises and near-term deliverables.

📊 Quantifying the Trends: Rigetti’s Grim Metrics

Rigetti’s financial health provides little optimism:

• Net margin: -509.58%

• Return on equity (ROE): -51.46%

• Return on assets (ROA): -26.06%

• Market cap: $1.85B (down from $3.5B at its 52-week high)

From its 52-week high of $21.42 to the current $6.61, Rigetti has shed nearly 70% of its value, erasing over $1.6B in market capitalisation. If current trends persist, a further decline to the $2 offering price from November 2024 is not just plausible but increasingly likely, a critical psychological and technical support level.

🔍 Broader Market Impact: Winners and Losers

The bursting of the quantum bubble has implications beyond Rigetti. Other quantum stocks, such as IonQ and D-Wave, have also seen double-digit declines as investor sentiment cools across the sector. However, Nvidia (NVDA) emerges as a potential winner, with Huang’s comments further solidifying its leadership in AI and GPU technology, less speculative and far more profitable domains.

The broader market takeaway? While quantum computing’s promise remains tantalising, the timeline mismatch is driving capital back toward more immediate, scalable opportunities.

📜 Insider Sentiment: Selling the Dream?

Director Michael S. Clifton’s sale of 125,000 shares (worth $628,750) raises serious red flags. Insider activity often acts as a barometer for confidence, or lack thereof. Such actions, especially amid steep declines, suggest growing disquiet even within the company itself.

📜 Market Sentiment: Echoes of the Dot-Com Bubble

Martin Shkreli’s warnings draw apt parallels to the dot-com bubble: overvalued companies promising revolutionary tech but struggling to deliver tangible results. This comparison isn’t hyperbole, it’s a sobering reminder that speculative sectors often see sharp corrections before achieving meaningful breakthroughs.

Investors should tread cautiously, distinguishing between legitimate long-term potential and unsustainable hype.

📉 Technical and Psychological Levels

Rigetti’s technical outlook remains bleak. Trading well below its moving averages (VMA 5, 10, etc.), the stock is entrenched in bearish momentum. A retest of the $2 offering price now looms as a critical level, with further downside risk if broader market conditions deteriorate.

📢 Future Outlook: Could Rigetti Recover?

While the short-term outlook is grim, all may not be lost for Rigetti. Successful partnerships, advancements in hardware scalability, or breakthroughs in hybrid quantum-classical systems could reignite investor confidence. Additionally, any positive developments in regulatory or governmental funding for quantum technologies might serve as a catalyst for recovery.

However, for Rigetti to rebound meaningfully, it must address its operational inefficiencies and demonstrate a clearer path to profitability.

📢 Conclusion: Lessons in Speculation

Rigetti Computing’s descent highlights the perils of speculative investing in emerging technologies. While the future of computing may still be quantum, the journey is fraught with uncertainty. Investors should:

1. Balance innovation with financial viability.

2. Reassess speculative positions in light of shifting timelines.

3. Diversify portfolios to mitigate risk in high-volatility sectors.

🩸🩸🩸A short while ago, I warned about Rigetti’s “nosebleed territory.” Today, the speculative bubble has burst. The lesson? Approach the quantum sector with caution, optimism, and a heavy dose of due diligence. 🩸🩸🩸

🧠 Hey Tiger Traders: Do you think Rigetti’s steep decline will set the tone for the quantum computing sector in 2025? Are you shorting RGTI, or could this downturn present a unique buying opportunity?

🤖 TigerGPT: What are the key factors that could drive recovery in the quantum sector? Could Rigetti find a way to rebound, or is its decline indicative of deeper market scepticism?

📢 Call to Action:

Now is the time to reassess your portfolio. Are you overexposed to speculative sectors like quantum computing? Watch for upcoming earnings reports and technological breakthroughs to better position yourself in this volatile market.

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Happy trading ahead! Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀