On the evening of June 23 (local time), Iran launched 19 missiles at the U.S. Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar in retaliation—but the strike ended with “zero casualties,” a symbolic gesture more than an escalation. What was once seen as a potential tipping point in the Middle East abruptly deescalated within 48 hours, as former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire deal between Iran and Israel, declaring that “the time for peace has come.” Yet, it appears that the markets had already priced in the likelihood of a swift resolution shaped by the strategic calculations of the U.S., Iran, and Israel.
“Theatrical Retaliation” and a Logic of De-escalation
Throughout the 12-day conflict, Iran adopted a “strike and talk” pattern—retaliating one day, expressing willingness to negotiate the next. Its missile strike in response to U.S. airstrikes was carefully choreographed: advance notice was given via diplomatic channels, targets were military sites already evacuated, and Tehran emphasized its “brotherly ties” with Qatar. Even the number of missiles (19) was precisely matched to the number of bombs used in the U.S. strike on Iran—a calculated show of strength aimed at domestic audiences while signaling to the world that Tehran did not wish to escalate.
Trump played along. After hailing a successful U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, he publicly thanked Iran for the “mild” and “pre-notified” retaliation, calling it a “peace opportunity.” This odd gratitude reflected a tacit understanding: Iran needed to demonstrate revenge to its people, while the U.S. wanted to avoid another war. As one Western intelligence officer put it, “This was classic de-escalation theatre—though whether Israel will go along is another question.”
A Fragile “Trump-Style Peace”
Trump’s dramatic claim that “12 hours to ceasefire, 24 hours to peace” appears more like political theater than a sustainable solution. While a ceasefire was indeed enacted on Tuesday, the deeper strategic game is far from over:
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Israel’s Calculated Silence: Although PM Netanyahu’s administration acknowledged the ceasefire, Israel’s military chief stated that operations against Iran were “not over” and that the focus would return to Gaza. Israel’s long-term goal remains dismantling threats from neighboring states—true peace seems unlikely until Iran’s capabilities are neutralized.
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The Nuclear Powder Keg: While U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance claimed Iran’s nuclear facilities were “buried,” the IAEA reports that Iran still possesses 400 kg of 60%-enriched uranium—just a step away from weapons-grade. Arms control expert Kelsey Davenport warned that airstrikes can’t erase Iran’s nuclear expertise or hidden stockpiles and may in fact accelerate Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
Market Response: A Calm That Spoke Volumes
“Gold thrives in chaos” is a long-standing market adage. And yet, despite initial gains, gold prices began to fall after the first days of the conflict. Notably, gold’s rally in late 2023 and early 2024 had been triggered by the Israel-Hamas war, proving its role as the ultimate safe haven. But this time, the fade in safe-haven demand reflects Iran’s limited retaliatory capabilities. Several reasons support this:
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Iran is under severe economic pressure due to long-standing U.S. sanctions.
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Its regional Shiite alliance has effectively crumbled—Hamas and Hezbollah have been battered by Israel, Syria’s regime is weakened, and Shia militias in Iraq have been disarmed.
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Iraqi forces still rely on outdated Russian arms, no match for Israeli or U.S. technology.
The gold price movements mirror these realities. Although gold surged toward $3,400 early in the week, it failed to break resistance at that level. The lack of bullish conviction, especially after the ceasefire, prompted a pullback to support near $3,290. This pattern reveals the market’s belief: the conflict, while headline-grabbing, posed no systemic threat.
Source: CFDs on Gold, TradingView
Oil saw the clearest reaction to the conflict. After the U.S. airstrikes, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for global oil shipments—spurring a jump in prices on Monday. Yet this threat has been made before without follow-through, and such a move would hurt Iran as much as its adversaries.
Indeed, oil prices spiked at the open but failed to hold above the June 13 high—suggesting weak bullish conviction. Once the ceasefire was confirmed, oil gave up all of its geopolitical premium in a sharp selloff—the largest single-day drop since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. Prices returned to the critical $65 support level, which remains pivotal for determining further direction.
Source: CFDs on WTI Crude Oil, TradingView
Even the VIX, Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” stayed subdued—especially when compared to the volatility triggered by Trump’s April tariff announcement. This suggests that investors never truly feared this conflict would spiral into a broader war.
Source: US VIX, TradingView
Reading the Tape: Range-Bound, Not Risk-Off
Gold and oil remain stuck in familiar trading ranges. Gold is oscillating between $3,400 and $3,290, while crude oil has retraced its move above $65. These patterns imply that while markets don’t expect Iran to escalate, they also recognize that the Israel-Iran rivalry remains unresolved. Investors are reluctant to make aggressive directional bets.
Meanwhile, U.S. equities—which typically sell off during geopolitical turmoil—showed surprising resilience. The three major indices only briefly dipped before rebounding sharply after the ceasefire, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq now aiming for new highs. This suggests markets viewed the conflict as containable, with limited economic fallout.
Invesight Viewpoint
While Trump may present this brief military exchange as a grand peace achievement, the underlying issues remain deeply entrenched: Iran’s proxy networks, Israel’s security doctrine, Gulf states’ double games, and the intractable Palestinian question.
In the end, market pricing is driven by buying and selling—not rhetoric. And in this case, the market made its call well before the ceasefire was announced. The unsustainable risk premium quickly evaporated—reminding us that temporary panic rarely outlasts rational capital flows.
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