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10-07

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 🔥📉💭 History Rhymes Before It Crashes 📈🧠🔥

🧠 The 1998 “Fake Top” That Wasn’t

In September 1998, Time magazine ran a cover asking “Is the boom over?” The S&P 500 had just fallen nearly 20 % in weeks amid the LTCM collapse and Russian default. Sentiment was shaken, headlines were gloomy, and many assumed the cycle had peaked. Yet what followed wasn’t a collapse. It was an 18-month melt-up that became one of the most powerful speculative waves in modern financial history, peaking in March 2000.

💻 Then: Speculation Without Substance

The poster child of that era was Pets.com, a company that reached cultural icon status while generating just $9 million annually before imploding. Valuations were built on nascent internet adoption and hype, not profitability or operational scale.

⚡ Now: Industrial-Scale AI Earnings Power

Today’s landscape is structurally different. Nvidia ($NVDA) alone generated $46 billion in sales in a single quarter, underpinned by tangible global demand for AI infrastructure. We’re not looking at small speculative startups; we’re dealing with industrial-scale compute economics, hyperscaler capex races, and sovereign AI strategies driving real earnings power.

📊 Options Lens: Positioning Reveals Caution Beneath the Surface

The 0DTE volume map shows dense call interest around 195, acting as a short-term resistance layer, with put support concentrated near 170. Spot sits around 185.8, straddling HVL at 185. The structure suggests bulls remain engaged but cautious, with positioning skewed toward tactical upside hedges rather than aggressive breakout chasing.

📈 Shakeouts Before Melt-Ups

The 1998 correction turned out to be a mid-cycle shakeout before the final parabolic leg. Tops form slowly, often in waves of disbelief followed by renewed euphoria. Historical analogies can be dangerous when the underlying fundamentals are radically different.

👉❓Are current pullbacks merely echoes of 1998’s “fake top,” setting the stage for an AI-driven leg higher, or are valuations entering a structural ceiling despite earnings power?

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerObserver @TigerPM 

Are There Still Stocks Like Nvidia 15 Years Ago?
Fifteen years ago, Nvidia was “just” a gaming GPU company. Ten years ago, Tesla was dismissed as a niche EV maker. Five years ago, Palantir was still trying to prove its business model. Today, all three are household names—and their early believers are sitting on life-changing returns. Which emerging companies do you think have true moat-based innovation potential? Do you agree that timing and conviction (like recognizing Nvidia’s iPhone moment) matter more than holding for 15 years?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • Kiwi Tigress
    10-08
    Kiwi Tigress
    That 1998 comparison hit me hard. I’m thinking about how positioning like that around 195 could set up a serious squeeze if momentum turns. It feels like the market’s waiting for a trigger before $NVDA and $AMD push into another leg higher
  • Queengirlypops
    10-08
    Queengirlypops
    The Pets.com vs Nvidia revenue contrast is wild. $SPY being part of this makes the whole thing feel bigger than just one stock. I love how the 0DTE map shows traders playing it tight at 195. This setup feels like it could flip fast 🧃
  • Cool Cat Winston
    10-08
    Cool Cat Winston
    📰I remember that 1998 cover well and the panic around LTCM. The SPX reversal into 2000 was extraordinary. The comparison with $NVDA’s $46B quarterly revenue versus Pets.com’s $9M is such a sharp way to frame the scale shift.
  • Hen Solo
    10-08
    Hen Solo
    ⚡The industrial-scale AI argument is compelling. $AMD alongside $NVDA really highlights how different this is from the dotcom era’s hype cycle. The earnings power and sovereign demand backdrop completely change the dynamic.
  • Tui Jude
    10-08
    Tui Jude
    📊The options lens really stood out to me. Seeing those dense $NVDA call layers around 195 and the puts near 170 gives a clear picture of how cautious positioning is. It’s reminiscent of how $SPY flows shifted pre-1999 melt-up.
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