⛩This morning, Japan announced a 1.8% fall in their annualised 3Q25 GDP - the country's first decline in 6 quarters but better than economists' projection of a 2.4% fall
🏠Private residential investment and exports were among key factors exerting a drag on overall output, as expected due to the introduction of regulatory changes for the construction industry and ongoing US tariffs.
🛒Consumer spending, the biggest component of GDP, barely budged, failing to counteract the weakness.
💴The Japanese yen is largely unchanged after the release and was trading around 154.58 while the Nikkei225 futures are trading 0.2% lower to 50,250 as of 905AM
🧑The data will likely bolster new PM Takaichi's administration’s conviction that aggressive fiscal spending is needed to shore up the economy.
💰The premier is expected to unveil her first economic package as soon as this week
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5⃣Friday: Japan’s October CPI measure will be released on Friday, and is likely to see some rebound, but should remain below the Bank of Japan's 2% target
🇺🇸US: following last week's government reopen, key economic data from government agencies will likely publish an updated release schedule in the coming days, along with an overview of how the shutdown affected data collection and reporting. It is even possible that some releases for October will be skipped entirely as has been hinted at by administration officials in recent days
📂It is likely that the September Employment report will be released soon. Before the shutdown, consensus expected non-farm payrolls to rise by +42K and for the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.3%.
👨💼4 Fed officials (Kashkari, Goolsbee, Logan and Paulson) are scheduled to deliver public remarks next week. Among them, comments from Goolsbee will likely attract the most attention, as he is a FOMC member in 2025
3⃣🌙Wednesday night: Minutes from the October FOMC meeting will offer additional details on the Committee’s decision to lower rates by 25 bps last month, as well as insights into the Fed’s policy outlook for December.
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