Shyon
11-22
When markets fall sharply, many say it’s the best time for ordinary investors to build wealth, but it’s hard to tell whether the drop is a true crash or just a correction. Sentiment helps, but it’s not precise — fear is high now at 7, yet in April it hit 4 and the market still sank further. With the NASDAQ only down about 8% and still positive for the year, this doesn’t look like a real crash.

I also watch the mood in stock groups. Early in a decline, people still rant and blame CEOs. The real bottom often appears when everyone goes quiet — when losses are deep and no one has energy to complain. That kind of silence is a stronger signal than any index, and we’re not there yet.

So at this point, I don’t think this is a true crash. The drop is sharp but lacks clear signs of capitulation. To find the real bottom, I look for extreme fear, investor silence, forced selling, and irrationally oversold prices. Until those show up, I stay patient.

@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG

How Do You Tell When a Market Armageddon Is Coming?
For most investors, the biggest question during a market downturn is when to bottom-fish. Buy too early, and your nerves can’t handle it; buy too late, and you miss the bottom. Either way, you end up making no money. The declines so far don’t seem to match the levels seen in April. How do you judge if a full-blown market crash has really arrived? What indicators help you pick the bottom?
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Comments

  • Sandyboy
    11-22
    Sandyboy
    Good way to gauge. Agree but may be difficult to identify also. Different investors enter at diff levels and what may work for one may not work for another.
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