πŸ“‰πŸš€πŸ§  AVGO Volatility Reset at a Structural Inflection, When Price Panics and Institutions Reprice πŸ§ πŸš€πŸ“‰

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12-15 01:27

$Broadcom(AVGO)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ πŸ” Market Dislocation at a Critical Level πŸ”

I’m watching a rare disconnect where price collapses while Wall Street is simultaneously repricing Broadcom higher, and that tension is now sitting directly on a critical structural inflection. $AVGO flushed more than -11% post earnings into the $355.50 trendline and Fibonacci confluence, exactly where prior selloffs have historically stabilised. This is not random volatility, it is a forced reset where positioning, liquidity, and conviction are being repriced in real time.

πŸ“Š Chart Structure and Volatility Reset

I’m anchored to the daily chart first. The highlighted earnings candle from this week is almost identical in length to the September flush candle. Same magnitude, same emotional signature, same resolution zone. Both moves drive directly into the rising trendline, the key Fibonacci support at $355.50, and a well-defined volume shelf that previously acted as acceptance during consolidation. That symmetry matters. Markets remember stress. Downside risk remains technically open toward $349, which aligns with the next liquidity pocket and demand shelf, but the reaction into the volume shelf suggests selling pressure is slowing rather than accelerating.

πŸ’° Flow Versus Fundamentals

What reinforces this inflection is how aggressively positioning flipped into the flush. Friday marked $AVGO as the most unusually traded name on the tape, with over $29M in single-leg calls sold and $19M in puts purchased. That is active volatility expression, not passive hedging. Price responded accordingly, closing at $359.93, down -11.43% or more than $43 in a single session. Gamma was reset, weak hands were cleared, and price was driven directly into long-term structure.

I’m also layering in the broader rotation backdrop. Wall Street is increasingly looking beyond the Magnificent Seven, with strategists urging capital toward previously unloved sectors like healthcare, industrials, energy, and financials as skepticism grows around Big Tech valuations and the scale of AI capex. In that environment, leaders like $AVGO become liquidity sources during rebalancing, even when fundamentals are improving. That matters, because it frames this earnings reaction as rotation-driven pressure layered on top of a positioning reset, not a deterioration in the AI demand story.

At the same time, fundamentals moved the opposite way. Morningstar reiterated conviction with its call titled β€œBuy the Dip Before the Rocket Takes Off,” pointing to accelerating AI chip demand, Google’s TPU momentum, and a newly disclosed $11B Anthropic order, while lifting fair value to $480. Truist escalated further, raising its price target to $500 from $365 in the same earnings cycle. That is not incremental optimism, that is a structural repricing. The tape confirmed it late, with a massive buyer stepping in at the close to absorb liquidity into fear.

🏁 Conclusion

I’m treating Monday as a pure structure test rather than a sentiment event. Holding the $355.50 confluence signals absorption and opens the door to stabilisation and range repair, with $377 the first level that forces a broader reassessment. A failure to hold simply allows a deeper liquidity probe toward $349, not a thesis break but a continuation of the volatility reset already underway. This is the market deciding whether the earnings shock was an overreaction or the final clearance before structure rebuilds.

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Comments

  • Kiwi Tigress
    12-15 10:03
    Kiwi Tigress
    yeah this $Broadcom(AVGO)$ post actually helped it click for me tbh. everyone panicking over the earnings candle but the way you explained the volume shelf and flow made it make sense. lowkey feels like the market just needed to flush first. I’m watching $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ for a $Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares(TSLL)$ poss trade. Avgo bit too expensive fr
    • Barcode:Β 
      πŸ™πŸΌ Grateful as always KT, your presence adds a human pulse that threads often lack.
  • Tui Jude
    12-15 13:14
    Tui Jude
    I’m appreciating the way you framed this as a volatility reset rather than a failed trend. The liquidity pocket around $355 was obvious on the chart, and the way flow hit into it felt mechanical. I’m seeing comparable positioning dynamics in $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ post earnings, heavy premium activity forcing price into support before momentum recalibrates. Solid structure read.
    • Barcode:Β 
      πŸ™πŸΌ TJ, I always value your read. You consistently pick up shifts in sentiment before they become obvious on the chart.
  • Cool Cat Winston
    12-15 11:35
    Cool Cat Winston
    I’m aligned with your $Broadcom(AVGO)$
    breakdown. What stood out is how cleanly price reacted into that volume shelf despite the earnings shock. Volatility flushed positioning but structure held where it mattered. The macro rotation you flagged explains why quality names like this become liquidity sources. I’m seeing similar behaviour in $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ where flow overwhelms fundamentals short term, then stabilises as gamma resets. This feels like regime tension, not deterioration.
    • Barcode:Β 
      πŸ™πŸΌ I’m grateful as always CCW, your perspective sharpens the analysis every time.
  • Queengirlypops
    12-15 11:23
    Queengirlypops
    ok but this post goes hard because it’s not just charts it’s flow, macro, rotation, the whole vibe. earnings dump, volatility spike, liquidity pocket tagged, gamma reset, then institutions quietly stepping in, like that’s the movie. everyone screaming crash while structure’s literally doing its job. feels like the same energy we saw in $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ before it snapped back, markets messy rn but this made it make sense πŸ§ƒ
    • Barcode:Β 
      πŸ™πŸΌ Thanks Q, you capture market mood in a way that instantly connects with traders.
  • PetS
    12-15 13:36
    PetS
    I’m liking how you connected macro rotation with single stock volatility. Too many people ignore that link. When capital rotates, leaders like $Broadcom(AVGO)$ absorb the pressure first. I’m seeing the same in $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ where flow dominates price even with solid earnings. Structure matters more than sentiment in this phase.
    • Barcode:Β 
      πŸ™ I’m grateful that you read my post PetS, conviction always grows when knowledge is shared.
  • Hen Solo
    12-15 13:28
    Hen Solo
    I’m focused on the interaction between flow and structure you highlighted. The options positioning clearly drove the move, not fundamentals. That kind of gamma pressure usually exaggerates earnings reactions. I’m watching $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ for similar cross asset effects as macro rotation picks up. Your post captures that regime shift well.
    • Barcode:Β 
      πŸ™πŸΌ Thanks HS, your sector awareness always helps anchor the broader narrative.
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