📅📊🔥 The Week Ahead | 15Dec2025 🇺🇸 | Where Earnings, CPI, and Crowded Shorts Collide 🔥📊📅

$Micron Technology(MU)$ $Nike(NKE)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ This is one of those weeks where positioning matters more than opinion, and most traders are leaning the wrong way.

I’m stepping into this week with full situational awareness because the compression building across macro data, earnings revisions, political catalysts, and extreme short interest is not accidental. This is the kind of setup where volatility doesn’t announce itself politely. It arrives because too many participants are leaning in the same direction at the same time. Layer in the recent AI capex jitters from ORCL and AVGO, and I can already feel the extra coil forming in dealer hedging flows as sensitivity builds around major index strikes.

I’m not approaching this as a prediction exercise. I’m approaching it as a positioning problem.

🔎 Macro calendar, the sequencing matters

I’m watching this week as a macro cascade, not isolated events. Monday opens with the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, which printed 18.7 versus 11 expected, the strongest reading in over a year. That flip from contraction to expansion matters because it signals supply chain pressures easing faster than consensus admits. The NAHB Housing Market Index remains subdued at 38, but the stabilisation is important as mortgage rates soften and builder confidence edges off multi-year lows. Fed speakers Miran and Williams frame the policy tone early, which matters because markets remain hypersensitive to language around inflation persistence and labour market slack.

Tuesday is the pressure point. Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 119K versus 55K expected, unemployment held at 4.4%, and average hourly earnings YoY printed 3.8%. This is not runaway inflation, but it is not weakness either. Participation ticked higher, keeping underemployment elevated but stable. Retail sales MoM at 0.2% and softness in the control group confirm consumption is selective, not collapsing. PMIs reinforce this with composite at 54.2, manufacturing at 52.2, and services at 54.1. Growth is uneven, but still alive, with new orders quietly improving beneath the surface.

Wednesday adds energy volatility. EIA crude inventories fell by 1.812M barrels while gasoline inventories surged 6.397M barrels, highlighting demand imbalances that continue to cap sustained oil upside. Thursday is the fulcrum. US CPI prints with headline and core at 3.2% YoY versus 3.0% expected, and core MoM at 0.2%. This keeps policy restrictive without triggering panic. Shelter inflation continues to slow, used vehicle pricing remains deflationary, and market-based inflation expectations have already compressed. ECB policy and Lagarde’s press conference add global cross-currents, while Friday’s existing home sales and Michigan sentiment close the loop. Triple witching quietly amplifies flows into the close, adding mechanical pressure across equities, index options, and futures.

This is not a week where I fade volatility. It’s a week where I respect it, particularly with front-end volatility slightly elevated relative to realised moves.

📈 Earnings expectations, the silent bullish tell

FactSet data shows Q4 earnings growth expectations pushed up to 8.1%, up 0.4% in just two weeks and 0.9% since 30Sep. That matters. Historically, estimates fall heading into earnings season. This cycle is doing the opposite. This is now the second consecutive quarter of upward revisions and the first time since 2021 we’ve seen back-to-back increases before reports begin.

The sector breakdown reinforces this dynamic. Information Technology is tracking roughly 25% YoY earnings growth, driven by semiconductors and cloud margins. Materials sit near 10.5%, Financials around 6.3%, and the S&P 500 aggregate at 8.1%. Consumer Discretionary remains negative near -4.3%, Industrials are slightly negative, and Energy barely positive. This is not broad exuberance. It’s selective strength, with dispersion elevated and leadership concentrated.

Goldman’s framework adds discipline. Their top-down model projects S&P 500 adjusted EPS at $246 in 2024, $272 in 2025, $305 in 2026, and $336 in 2027. Revenue growth averages 6% annually through 2027, with margins expanding from roughly 11.6% to 13.4%. Importantly, Goldman remains more conservative than bottom-up consensus on margin expansion, yet still embeds an AI-driven EPS uplift of 0.4% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. AI is no longer a hype premium. It’s a margin lever being priced cautiously as productivity gains begin to show up in operating models.

🧠 AI, consolidation not collapse

I’m very aware that AI sentiment cooled last week. ORCL’s FY26 capex increase was not rewarded, and AVGO didn’t raise AI revenue guidance enough for a demanding market. ChatGPT 5.2 failed to spark the enthusiasm Gemini 3 generated earlier. Datacentre pushout headlines added further hesitation.

Here’s the nuance. Most AI equities are now flat on a two-month basis. That’s digestion, not distribution. Capital has not left the theme, it has rotated within it.

🧠 $MU earnings, flow confirms conviction

This is why Micron sits at the centre of this week for me. $MU reports earnings Wednesday, 17Dec2025 after the close. Consensus EPS stands at $3.87 on revenue of $12.54B, representing roughly 44% YoY revenue growth. The Earnings Whisper sits higher at $4.00, and 77.8% of expectations are skewed toward a beat. Since the last earnings release, estimates have been revised higher, short interest has fallen 29.1%, and the stock has drifted higher by 46.1% to trade roughly 75% above its 200-day moving average near $137.82.

Options markets are pricing an expected move of about 10.6%, slightly above the recent average realised move of 8.3%. That premium matters. It tells me volatility is being bought, but not indiscriminately.

What really turns heads is the flow. I’m seeing large, unusual put selling at scale. On 12Dec, traders sold the 210P expiring Jan 2027 for roughly $41.35, collecting over $1.15M in premium. That’s long-dated, deep-strike downside being monetised. The same session saw selling of the 165P Jul 2026 for about $12.75, another $1.02M collected. This is not fear. This is conviction that downside is limited well below current levels.

At the same time, there has been notable call buying, including over 13,700 contracts of the $250 call expiring 19Dec2025 earlier in the month. That combination matters. It suggests institutions are comfortable underwriting downside while still positioning for upside convexity into earnings.

Technically, I’m watching the $78 to $80 zone as structural support on higher-timeframe charts, with resistance near $90 and extension toward $98 if guidance confirms margin inflection tied to HBM and AI memory demand. For put-write structures, the $170 to $190 range stands out as attractive, with flexibility to stretch toward the $200 strike depending on volatility and premium dynamics. Dec 19 expiries capture the earnings event, while Jan 2026 extends exposure for those leaning into structural confidence rather than a single print.

⚠️ Short interest extremes, asymmetric risk

This is where tension builds across the broader tape. Nasdaq-100 short interest now sits in the 100th percentile versus both the past year and past five years. Total short interest is up 26% YTD while $QQQ trades near highs. Days to cover remain historically tight. The S&P 500 is even more extreme, with short interest up 42% YTD and also ranking in the 100th percentile historically.

This is not bearish confirmation. This is stored energy. When positioning is this skewed, price does not need perfect data to move higher. It only needs data that isn’t bad. Any upside earnings surprise or benign CPI read forces mechanical buying as shorts cover and dealers adjust hedges. This is how squeezes begin quietly.

📊 Earnings breadth, this is a market-wide stress test

This week’s earnings slate spans the economy. I’m tracking $MU, $NKE, $FDX, $ACN, $CTAS, $DRI, $KMX, $BIRK, $BB, $PAYX, $CCL, $CAG, $GIS, $JBL, $TTC, $ABM, $SPIR, $VERU, $LEN, $DLTH, $KBH, $SCHL, $HEI, $FCEL, $ISSC, $UXIN, $AVO, $LW, and $WGO. I’m watching $ACN for AI consulting demand, $FDX for logistics volumes as a freight proxy, and $LEN and $KBH for alignment between housing data and guidance.

For full transparency and breadth, I’m also aware of earnings from $OPTT, $HYFT, $ABVX, $NAVN, $OTH, $OGI, $WOR, $MLKN, $EPAC, $WS, $GLOO, and $FDS this week. While these are smaller or lower-liquidity names, they still contribute to overall earnings tone and risk appetite beneath the index surface, especially in a tape where dispersion matters more than averages.

🌿 US cannabis, policy shock meets capital repricing

I’m treating US cannabis as a legitimate macro-political catalyst this week. Reports that Trump is expected to sign an executive order reclassifying marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III are structurally important. This alters tax treatment, improves banking access, and opens the door to institutional capital that has been structurally excluded for decades.

The reaction confirms it. MSOS surged over 60%. Canopy Growth jumped 52%. Tilray rallied 44%. Individual operators such as TCNNF, GTBIF, CURLF, and CRLBF posted gains ranging from 37% to over 80%. This is not a meme move. This is a repricing of terminal value.

Tilray CEO Irwin Simon captured the mood succinctly when he said, “I’m a lot more optimistic than I ever have been.” That optimism reflects regulatory gravity finally shifting after years of inertia.

I’m watching for consolidation above VWAPs and former resistance. For MSOS, holding above $5.50 keeps momentum intact with upside toward $7.20. A sustained break below $5 invalidates the near-term thesis.

🤖 Optimus, why this matters beyond the spectacle

Optimus is no longer a stage prop. From early demonstrations to 2025 Gen 3 systems performing factory tasks autonomously, this evolution reframes automation as an operating margin driver. In a world of labour constraints, geopolitical fragmentation, and reshoring pressure, productivity gains become strategic assets. This is how technology quietly reshapes macro outcomes by lowering opex and improving resilience.

🛰️📡 Private Markets Signal Strength, Space Edition

Google $GOOGL is set to book another sizable paper gain after SpaceX completed a tender offer that effectively values the company at approximately $800B, according to Bloomberg. The transaction was priced at $421 per share and was a secondary tender only, allowing employees to sell shares. SpaceX itself did not raise capital or receive proceeds from the deal.

That distinction matters. This was not capital seeking liquidity. This was liquidity meeting confidence. Private markets are still repricing long-duration innovation higher, even as public markets debate near-term multiples.

🚀 Execution still matters, and Rocket Lab keeps delivering

Congratulations to $RKLB on completing its 19th mission of the year with a 100% overall success rate. Consistent cadence, clean execution, and growing credibility across commercial and government launches continue to separate operators from storytellers.

Neutron in 2026 is the real inflection point, and the groundwork is being laid mission by mission.

📐 How I’m structuring exposure

I’m favouring core equity exposure where fundamentals and positioning align, with optionality layered selectively. For earnings, I prefer defined-risk structures such as call spreads or put-writes 2–4 weeks out where IV is elevated but not extreme. I scale in, trim into volatility expansion, and avoid all-in event risk.

Risk discipline matters. Invalidation for me is a sustained break below SPX 4,650 paired with rising real yields and widening credit spreads. If that combination appears, I de-risk aggressively.

🎯 Where most traders are misallocated

Most traders are reacting to headlines. I’m watching estimates and positioning. Most are debating narratives. I’m tracking who is offsides. This week rewards discipline and structure, not bravado.

🧠 Watchlist

$MU $NKE $FDX $ACN $MSOS $TCNNF $GTBIF $QQQ $SPX

🏁 Conclusion

This week is a convergence point. Rising earnings expectations, sticky inflation, extreme short interest, political catalysts, and a dense macro calendar are colliding. I’m not guessing direction. I’m positioning where asymmetry exists and risk is mispriced. The opportunity is real, but only for traders who respect structure over noise.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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