Not Fear, But Anticipation: Markets Hold Breath Before Jobs Data

THE MARKET JUST TOOK A STEP BACK AND IT’S NOT FEAR. IT’S ANTICIPATION.

US stock futures slipped ahead of a critical US jobs report.

S&P 500 futures $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ –0.2%.

Nasdaq futures $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$ –0.4%.

Brent crude $WTI Crude Oil - main 2602(CLmain)$ broke below $60 for the first time since May.

Bitcoin dropped >1%, back near $86,000.

This isn’t random selling.

These are the numbers no one is saying out loud:

• 10-year Treasury yields at ~4.18%, still near cycle highs despite rate-cut expectations.

• Brent oil –1.6% in a single session, signaling demand stress, not supply relief.

• Markets are pricing 2 Fed cuts in 2026, before seeing a single fresh labour datapoint.

Read that again.

Everything is being repriced before the evidence arrives.

Here’s the real reason this week matters:

The global macro narrative is hanging on one thread the US labour market.

Jerome Powell made it clear at the FOMC: inflation progress is no longer the bottleneck. Employment is.

Strong jobs mean higher-for-longer survives. Weak jobs force cuts fast.

At the same time, something bigger is happening in the background:

• Oil collapsing below $60 pressures inflation expectations.

• Europe’s growth engine just sputtered again.

• Global liquidity is tightening quietly as central banks step back.

This week decides whether falling oil is “disinflation” or a growth warning.

If jobs weaken, markets rally not because things are good, but because cuts are coming.

If jobs hold firm, risk assets reprice violently because there’s nowhere left to hide.

This isn’t about today’s red candles.

It’s about whether the Fed still controls the landing or the data does.

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Not Fear, But Anticipation: Markets Hold Breath Before Jobs Data

For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.

Find out more here.

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