Markets are finally showing some life again, helped by Micron’s earnings and a general rebound in tech. At the same time, everyone is watching the Bank of Japan closely — a rate hike now feels almost certain, with most expecting a 25bps move.

What’s interesting to me is that this BoJ hike is not really a surprise anymore. It’s been talked about for months. If Japan goes ahead with a “normal” hike and nothing dramatic happens, it could be one of those classic “sell the rumour, buy the fact” moments.

In that case, the uncertainty clears, and markets can refocus on earnings, liquidity, and positioning — which is usually when year-end rallies start to show up.

On the flip side, if the BoJ surprises the market (bigger hike, hawkish tone), we could still see some short-term volatility. But honestly, a lot of bad news already feels priced in.

My personal take:

If there’s no major shock, the path of least resistance into year-end still feels upward. Maybe not a straight line, but a grind higher — which is basically how most Santa rallies look anyway.

Not calling a straight moonshot, but I wouldn’t be surprised if markets finish the year stronger than many expect.

What do you think — Santa rally starts after BoJ, or one last dip before the year ends?