When Exchange Rates Become Part of the Trade

I mainly trade U.S. stocks and ETFs, which means that whether I like it or not, my investing life is tied to the USD. Every trade, every position, every gain or loss eventually traces back to one quiet but powerful decision: when to exchange SGD to USD.

Lately, I’ve been telling myself not to do it. Not yet.

This isn’t a rule I picked up from a textbook or a macroeconomic forecast. It came from something far more personal and mundane—scrolling through my own currency exchange history. Line by line, date by date, I could see the past versions of myself converting SGD into USD, usually without much hesitation. Back then, I didn’t think too deeply about exchange rates. I just wanted to invest. The currency conversion felt like a necessary step, not a decision worth dwelling on.

But looking at those numbers now, something feels different.

Using the same amount of SGD, I can exchange into more USD today than I could in the past. The difference isn’t dramatic enough to make headlines, but it’s noticeable enough to make me pause. I don’t know whether it’s because the USD has weakened, the SGD has strengthened, or some combination of both. What I do know is how it feels: converting SGD to USD seems more favorable than before, while converting USD back to SGD feels less so.

And that feeling matters.

It has quietly changed my behavior. Each time I consider exchanging more SGD into USD, a voice in my head stops me. If I do this now, what happens later? If the USD continues to depreciate and I eventually convert back to SGD, the exchange rate could quietly erase a portion of my investment gains. The trade itself might be successful, but the currency round-trip might not be.

That realization has been humbling. I used to think investing was mostly about picking the right stock or ETF. Now I see that currency is an invisible partner in every trade—one that never announces itself, but always keeps score. You can be right on the asset and still feel wrong when you convert back.

What makes this more difficult is that there’s no clear answer. Exchange rates don’t move on logic alone, and they certainly don’t move on my personal comfort level. The “right” time to exchange money is usually obvious only in hindsight. Still, the awareness itself has value. It forces me to slow down, to treat currency conversion not as a mechanical step, but as a strategic choice.

So for now, I wait. I might continue trading U.S. markets with the USD I already have, resisting the urge to top up simply because prices look attractive.

Maybe the USD will strengthen again. Maybe the SGD will weaken. Maybe I’ll look back one day and realize I waited too long. That’s always possible. But for the moment, choosing not to exchange feels like a decision in itself—one shaped not by forecasts or charts, but by lived experience and a growing awareness that in investing, sometimes the most important moves happen before I even place a trade.