TSM Leads Semi Surge! How Will Intel Close Next Week?

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01-16
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$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ delivered a blowout Q4 earnings report, beating expectations across revenue, margins and profits, and pushing the stock to new highs.

📊 TSMC Q4 Highlights (Beat Across the Board)

  • Revenue: TWD 1.05T (vs. 1.02T est.)

  • Gross Margin: 62.3% (vs. 60.6%)

  • Net Income: TWD 505.7B (vs. 475.2B)

TSM has now climbed to become the 6th largest company globally by market cap.

Revenue reached TWD 1.05 trillion, gross margin came in at 62.3%, and net income exceeded forecasts, lifting TSM into the position of the world’s 6th-largest company by market cap.

Semiconductor Stocks Jump

The impact quickly spread across the semiconductor sector.

$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ saw its market cap break above $500 billion, while U.S. chip stocks rallied in sympathy. $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ jumped nearly 6%, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ gained about 2%. The AI trade, which had shown signs of fatigue earlier, was clearly reignited.

Management pushed back against the “AI bubble” narrative and guided for $52–56 billion in capex, with 70–80% earmarked for advanced manufacturing, reinforcing confidence in sustained AI-driven demand into 2026.

💬 Intel Is Next

Attention now turns to $Intel(INTC)$, which reports earnings after market close on Jan 22. The stock is already up about 30% year-to-date, but consensus still points to YoY declines in revenue and profits.

Historically, Intel’s post-earnings moves have been volatile, making the upcoming report a key test of whether improving manufacturing narratives can outweigh near-term earnings pressure.

Institutions’ price targets for $Intel(INTC)$

UBS | PT $49 | Neutral
Sees solid near-term support from PC and server demand and raised its price target. However, UBS views the year as a mixed, gradual recovery phase, with the 14A process more of a medium- to long-term narrative than an immediate driver.

Citi | PT $50 | Upgraded to Neutral
Believes Intel is entering an AI foundry window of opportunity, benefiting from tight advanced packaging capacity at TSMC and government support. That said, Citi cautions on potential CPU share losses and continued weakness in PC demand.

KeyBanc | PT $60 | Overweight
The most bullish among the group. Points to strong AI data-center demand, meaningful progress in Intel’s manufacturing business, and server CPU capacity that is nearly sold out for the year, supporting potential price increases.

RBC Research | PT $50 | Initiation
Acknowledges cost cuts, balance-sheet improvement, and the strategic partnership with NVIDIA. However, RBC sees near-term upside constrained by margin pressure and manufacturing execution risks, noting that Intel still trails peers in AI data centers.

How do you think INTC will move after earnings?

Comment:

  • 🟢 A. Up more than 5%

  • 🟡 B. Range-bound (-5% to +5%)

  • 🔴 C. Down more than 5%

Intel Slumps on Weak Q1 Guidance: Opportunity or Trap?
Intel delivered a mixed Q4: revenue fell 4% YoY but beat estimates, EPS jumped 15% YoY, and Data Center & AI revenue rose 9% above expectations. Intel also completed a $5B equity sale to NVIDIA, and marked 18A as the first leading-edge node in mass production on U.S. soil. However, weak Q1 guidance on revenue, EPS, and gross margin sent shares down 11% after hours. Is Intel’s post-earnings selloff driven more by near-term execution issues or conservative guidance? If supply and yields improve after Q1, can 18A and future 14A customers re-anchor the turnaround story?
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Comments

  • Shyon
    01-16
    Shyon
    TSM的 $台积电(TSM)$ 井喷季度几乎重新设定了整个半导体领域的标准。随着利润率的扩大、人工智能驱动的需求被证明是真实的以及资本支出严重倾向于先进节点,市场显然正在奖励执行力和可见性——而不仅仅是一个好故事。

    这就是为什么英特尔 $英特尔(INTC)$ 感觉像是一个更艰难的考验。年初至今,该股已上涨约30%,对制造进展的预期已被提前,但市场普遍认为收入和利润均同比下降。当预期领先于基本面时,失望的余地就会变得非常小。

    所以我的选择是🔴C.下跌超过5%。在如此强劲的财报前运行之后,英特尔可能需要近乎完美的执行力来保持涨幅,任何低于预期的执行力都可能引发经典的“卖出新闻”举措。

    @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub

  • 1PC
    01-18
    1PC
    🚀 TSM has proven it can deliver blowout quarters, with Q4 2025 revenue at NT$1.046T & gross margin 62.3%. Looking ahead, I see upcoming earnings in the NT$950B–1.05T range, with margins holding near 60–62%. AI demand remains the growth engine, while capex intensity is the balancing act. As for INTC, history shows volatility post-earnings. My vote: 🟡 B.Range-bound (-5% to +5%) — manufacturing progress may offset near-term revenue pressure, but not enough for a breakout.[Serious]@JC888 @Barcode @Shyon @koolgal @Shernice軒嬣 2000 @Aqa @DiAngel
  • Tiger_comments
    02-03
    Tiger_comments
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  • BTS
    01-19
    BTS
    The semiconductor sector is heating up with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) reporting record results and capex guidance for 2026; this, combined with the growth in AI demand, signals a durable bullish outlook lifting many boats in the industry

    Intel (INTC) heading into earnings faces a blend of cautious optimism and uncertainty, with analysts split as some raise expectations on AI and server chip demand, while others remain cautious with "Hold" ratings and modest price targets。。。

    The stock has been up about 30% since the start of 2026, driven by potential foundry wins and favorable "America First" sentiment; however, despite sector strength, INTC faces challenges with its product mix and margin pressures, leading to inconsistent earnings results

    Given the momentum in semiconductors, the most likely post-earnings outcome is range-bound movement within a 5% window unless guidance shifts dramatically; a significant move seems unlikely without major news altering expectations

  • icycrystal
    01-17
    icycrystal
    股票走势的最重要驱动因素可能是管理层在收益看涨期权期间对未来业务状况和市场份额增长的评论。

    如果管理。是好的然后也许我会选择选项B[Thinking][Thinking][Thinking]

  • Ah_Meng
    01-17
    Ah_Meng
    I will go for option C. Intel price has run too far ahead of its value. Market is positioning Intel for its potential future success of its foundry services to take on TSMC. It's not even in the AMD space. US government's involvement is already priced in from the recent price spike. Now is the time for delivery however there is simply not enough time for Intel to do just that. Therefore market will be in for a reality check when it announces its latest results. Of course, this is only my take. Market could be irrational for longer than necessary, as could be seen in $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
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