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No Cuts Until July? A Volatile Ride For Market?
January nonfarm payrolls came in at 130K vs. 55K expected, while unemployment ticked down to 4.3% (vs. 4.4% forecast). The initial optimism faded fast: the Dow slipped 0.13%, the Nasdaq fell 0.16%, and the S&P 500 closed flat. Job gains were heavily concentrated in healthcare (+124K), raising questions about breadth. Traders quickly pushed the first Fed rate cut expectation from June to July, with March cut odds collapsing and “no change” probability above 94%.
Is a stronger labor market now a headwind for equities?
Will delayed rate cuts cap upside in the near term?
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