Reward 500 Tiger-coinsThis recent tech rout boils down to one word: Capex. While the AI hype is real, the spending is massive and the short-term monetization remains blurry. Combined with high valuations and a broader market correction, we’ve seen a "domino effect" across the board:
-
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ & $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ : Earnings showed strong growth, but sharply higher Capex spooked investors. Google managed to claw back from a 7% intraday drop to close -0.6% lower, while Amazon plummeted roughly 10%.
-
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ : Also mired in the Capex trap. The stock has shed about 15% over the past two weeks, slipping below the key $400 psychological level.
-
$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ & $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ : Meta has given back almost all of last week’s gains, while Tesla took a sharp hit, sliding back under $400.
-
$Apple(AAPL)$: While other giants retreated, Apple rallied about 10% over the same period, showing incredible relative strength.
The 2026 Capex: Who’s More Anxious?
The 2026 "Star Wars of Compute" is seeing total investment approach a staggering $600 billion. Let’s look at the Capex projections from the tech titans:
-
🥇 Amazon (~$200B): Absolutely insane spending. To defend the AWS throne, Bezos’s successors are going all-in. $200 billion? That’s not just an investment; it’s a statement that they will outspend everyone to stay #1.
-
🥈 Google (~$1,850B): Sundar Pichai is clearly feeling the heat, with spending effectively doubling. To prevent ChatGPT from taking their lunch, Google is not just spending—they’re signaling to Wall Street: "Demand is still outstripping our supply!"
-
🥉 Microsoft (~$150B+): The steady "gold-digging beast." At $37.5B per quarter, they are on track for $160B a year. After all, raising a "son" like OpenAI is an expensive endeavor.
-
😶 Meta ($115B - $135B): Remember when Zuck was mocked as a "spendthrift" for the Metaverse? Looking at these numbers now, Meta actually looks... disciplined? He’s currently the "lowest" spender among the giants (even if that "low" is still $130B+).
There are two prevailing narratives regarding this Capex explosion:
-
The Cloud Provider Logic (AMZN, GOOG, MSFT) Their infrastructure spending is backed by actual B2B customers. As long as the cloud market expands, this Capex builds a massive competitive moat.
-
The Consumer Monetization "Ghost Story" (META, AAPL, TSLA) These companies must recoup their AI billions one or two dollars at a time from individual consumers. If the "AI killer app" for consumers doesn't materialize, this Capex becomes a heavy drag on the balance sheet.
AI competition seems to make capex spending unavoidable — but in the end, who will actually monetize it?
Which company are you most bullish on after recent earnings?
Would you buy Apple at these levels, or try to bottom-fish some of the recently beaten-down names?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins~
Comments
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ : The Under appreciated Workhorse: It is the best value now.While the market panic over their 2026 capex, it has just posted a record USD 400 billion revenue year. Trading at a lower PEG ratio than its peers, it is the AI power player hiding in plain sight.
Apple : The Defensive King. It defied the trend by being the only giant whose capex actually declined. While others build data centers, Apple is counting record iPhone cash. It is a safe haven though you pay a premium P/E of 34 for peace of mind.
Meta : The Efficiency Machine: Revenue is soaring 24% YoY but the market is getting nervous about the scale of its infrastructure spending. It is a cash cow with an expensive hobby.
Amazon : The Long Shot Gambler - It dropped USD 200 B capex. It is playing the long game but that is a huge bill to swallow.
Tesla: The Belief Play. P/E ratio of 400, it isn't priced for cars. It is a test of faith.
@Tiger_comments
perhaps $Alphabet(GOOG)$ [Thinking] [Thinking] [Thinking]
Alphabet (Google): Seeing tangible returns in its Cloud business, generating billions in AI-linked revenue, though massive capex projections of $175–$185 billion for 2026 are weighing on sentiment.
Meta Platforms appears to be the most bullish name following recent earnings. Unlike peers who are still in the "build-out" phase, Meta has successfully transitioned into the "Epoch of Execution," silencing critics by showing that AI can immediately fuel its high-margin core advertising engine.
After earnings, I’m still more constructive on the cloud providers. Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are spending heavily, but their capex is backed by real enterprise demand and helps build durable moats. Among them, I lean toward Amazon—the scale of spending is extreme, but it reinforces long-term leadership despite short-term margin pressure.
I wouldn’t chase Apple after its strong relative outperformance. Apple looks like a defensive winner in this phase, but not the best risk-reward. Instead, I’d selectively bottom-fish quality names hit mainly by capex fears, focusing on those with clearer monetization paths rather than pure AI hype.
@TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub
根据最近的财报，尽管资本支出指引为1800亿美元，但Alphabet仍因其强劲的基本面而脱颖而出。
增长：第四季度搜索收入增长17%，云增长48%，表明人工智能已经在增强其核心业务。
护城河：其2400亿美元的云积压订单（环比增长55%）表明它正在成功地将人工智能“支出”转化为长期客户承诺。
去苹果还是不去苹果？
“避风港”游戏：苹果（AAPL）已成为防御性的最爱，因为它逆着资本支出爆炸性的趋势，支出远低于同行。如果您担心人工智能基础设施泡沫，这种“资本效率”会使其具有吸引力。
抄底：如果你相信亚马逊（在200B美元资本支出“重磅炸弹”后下跌约7%）或微软（因高支出担忧而盈利下降）等高增长但“遭受重创”的公司会提供更多上涨空间积压最终将转化为利润。
Who is actually monetizing the AI CapEx?
The Hardware Layer (Immediate): NVIDIA is the primary beneficiary, capturing roughly 90% of AI accelerator spending.
The Cloud Layer (Signed Contracts): Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, and Amazon have a combined $1.1 trillion cloud backlog. They are monetizing through high utilization of data centers and increased Cloud revenue (e.g., Google Cloud revenue rose 47% in Q4 2025).
The Application Layer (Scaling): Meta has emerged as a rare software success story, proving it can turn AI infrastructure into immediate advertising revenue growth.