🤖 XPEV 4Q25 Preview: PT at $28! Is the MONA Momentum the Real Engine?

👋 Hey Tigers!

The $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ 4Q earnings preview is hot off the press!

Is the "Smart EV Challenger" hitting a speed bump or gearing up for the next lap? 🏎️

The Tiger Research Team has updated its model, and the verdict is in: 👉 Maintain BUY rating 👉 Price Target $28 (unchanged) 📈

The big story? Delivery headwinds are real, but the product cycle might just be getting started!

💎 XPeng is navigating near-term softness with the MONA lineup gaining traction, while new models like P7+ and G7 are ramping up. Is this the portfolio diversification we've been waiting for?

We've broken down the Estimate Revisions, the Model Mix, and the Financials below.

Let's dive in! 👇

1. The Core Reality: Delivery Adjustments 📉

The Tiger Research Team believes the story right now is less about explosive growth and more about managing expectations through a product transition.

The Delivery Trim:

4Q25 deliveries cut by 12% to 116,249 units (from 131,437), aligning with recent monthly disclosures
1Q26 deliveries cut by 24% to 88,119 units following weaker January data
February expected to remain pressured due to Chinese New Year holidays, with recovery likely beginning in March

The Silver Lining: Strategically, XPeng is diversifying beyond the G6 dependency with MONA models, P7+, and the new G7 SUV hitting the market.

Model Mix Evolution:

MONA Models: 175K deliveries in FY25E, becoming the volume anchor at ~¥117K ASP
P7+: 75K deliveries in FY25E, the premium sedan refresh at ~¥168K ASP
G7: New SUV entry with 57.5K deliveries expected in FY26E

2. Financials: Margin Pressure from Scale 📊

While the long-term product story is promising, the near-term numbers reflect volume challenges.

Revenue:

4Q25 vehicle sales lowered by 8% to ¥18.8B
1Q26 vehicle sales lowered by 27% to ¥13.7B due to delivery cuts

Margins:

4Q25 vehicle gross margin trimmed by 30bps to 14.0%
FY26E vehicle gross margin lowered to 13.4% (from 15.0%), reflecting reduced sales volumes and higher costs for storage and memory

The Path to Profitability: Operating leverage remains elusive with Non-GAAP operating income still negative, though narrowing toward breakeven by 4Q26E.

3. Valuation: Why $28 Still Makes Sense 🧮

Our $28 Price Target is based on 1.7x 2026E sales, a meaningful discount to Tesla's 14.2x multiple. Here's the Tiger Research Team's rationale:

The Discount Factors:

Youth Risk: XPEV, as a younger company vs. Tesla, faces more execution uncertainties
Regulatory Risk: As a Chinese company, potential scrutiny when entering overseas markets
Geopolitical Discount: US-listed Chinese companies face tension-related valuation compression

Peer Context: At 1.7x 2026E sales vs. Tesla's 14.2x, the risk/reward asymmetry remains attractive for patient investors.

4. Key Risks to Watch ⚠️

Competition: Intensifying rivalry in the 150K-300K RMB EV segment from Leap Motor, Nezha, Great Wall, and Volkswagen.

ADAS Progress: Development restricted by transportation law—navigation pilot on city roads not allowed, giving competitors time to catch up.

AD Competition: Huawei and Baidu's full-stack autonomous driving solutions pose threats.

Execution: Timely deliveries critical to product reliability reputation.

Regulatory: HFCAA disclosure requirements and potential VIE structure tightening in China.

Supply Chain: Temporary parts shortages could impact production targets.

📝 Summary

Tiger Research maintains a BUY rating, acknowledging near-term delivery headwinds while viewing the stock as positioned for recovery through new model launches (MONA, P7+, G7).

The diversification beyond the G6 is a tangible step toward reducing single-model risk, while the path to margin expansion remains the key 2026 catalyst.

🐯 Questions for Tigers

Delivery Recovery: Do you think XPeng can hit the 499K FY26E delivery target, or are further cuts likely?

Model Mix: Are you bullish on the MONA volume play or concerned about ASP dilution?

Margin Path: With FY26E vehicle gross margin at 13.4%, do you see a clear path to 15%+ sustainable margins?

Valuation: At $18 current price with 28PT,is XPeng(XPEV)$ a deep value opportunity or a value trap given the competitive intensity?

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