Nvidia Earnings: Valuation at 5-Year Low! Can Nvidia Break "Earnings Curse"?

Tiger_comments
02-24 19:28
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Tomorrow after the close, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ will report earnings.

On one side, Wall Street’s ever-rising expectations; on the other, macro geopolitical tensions, renewed tariff noise tied to Trump, and growing market anxiety over whether AI spending can stay this hot into 2027.

1. Earnings Expectations: Good News May No Longer Be Enough

Current consensus puts Q4 revenue around $57 billion, with data center expectations the most aggressive — analysts have lifted forecasts from about $52.7B six months ago to roughly $60.1B now.

Recently, even when Nvidia beats expectations, the stock hasn’t reacted strongly. Once “surprise” becomes standard, marginal impact declines. Options pricing currently implies about a ~6% move this week — in either direction.

2. Valuation Debate: Bargain or Value Trap?

Nvidia’s forward P/E is now below 24x — not only below its 5-year average (~38x) but close to the lowest level in five years.

For a stock once widely labeled “expensive,” it now arguably looks relatively cheap among mega-cap tech. If tomorrow’s guidance is solid, this valuation compression could become the trigger for fresh buying.

3. The “2027 Anxiety”: Is the Moat Still Intact?

Market concerns are focused on two main questions:

1. Can Big Tech Keep Spending? Microsoft, Google, and other hyperscalers are investing aggressively in 2026, but their cash flow outlook for 2027 looks less certain.

2. Beyond $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$, major tech players are developing in-house inference chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia. Current stock weakness partly reflects pricing in this potential competition risk.

But the good news is Nvidia has been trading in low range.

More than revenue numbers, we should watch how Jensen Huang frames the post-Blackwell roadmap. He needs hard data showing that even with in-house chips, Nvidia maintains dominance in AI inference.

If Jensen successfully reinforces the “inference leadership” narrative — combined with today’s compressed valuation — Nvidia could have room to restart its uptrend.

Is Tomorrow Nvidia’s Breakthrough Moment or a Trial by Fire?

With NVDA trading around $190, where do you think the stock goes?

A. Bullish Breakout — Toward $200
Blackwell shipments exceed expectations, Jensen silences doubters with strong dominance data, and the second leg of the AI bull market begins.

B. Sell-the-News Pullback — Toward $180
Solid earnings, but enthusiasm fades amid macro risks and profit-taking; institutions lock in gains and the stock searches for near-term support.

🎁 Earnings Prediction Challenge — Join the Discussion

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Nvidia Beats But CapEx Rises: Dip-Buying Chance?
Nvidia delivered record Q4 revenue, with data center sales accelerating 75% YoY and networking up over 260%. Gross margin topped 75%, the highest in 18 months, driven by Blackwell ramp. Q1 revenue guidance implies nearly 77% YoY growth, exceeding even bullish buy-side estimates. However, gaming revenue missed expectations, down 13% QoQ on channel inventory. Management flagged supply constraints as a near-term headwind. Shares swung from +4% after hours to negative.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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Comments

  • Shyon
    02-24 19:48
    Shyon
    明天收盘后，所有的目光都集中在 $英伟达(NVDA)$ .预期很高——数据中心预测收入约为57B美元——但该股的预期市盈率约为24倍，已经反映出很多怀疑。对我来说，这不是节奏的问题，更多的是指导是否证明2026-2027年的人工智能需求仍然强劲。期权意味着大约6%的波动，因此波动性几乎是肯定的。

    “2027年焦虑”是真实的，尤其是面对超大规模资本支出问题和来自AMD的竞争。尽管如此，英伟达的生态系统和推理领导地位并不容易被取代。如果布莱克威尔出货量和指引强劲，情绪可能会迅速转变。詹森对后布莱克威尔路线图的基调将和数字一样重要。

    我选择看涨突破。随着估值的压缩，稳健的执行可能会重新点燃向180-200美元区间的势头。在我看来，风险回报现在更倾向于惊喜而不是失望。

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub

  • MHh
    02-25 22:55
    MHh
    While I am optimistic about Nvidia, I believe the macroeconomic factors will prevail. Trump’s tariffs swings which causes more market uncertainty will invoke fears in investors and many might want to take profit now rather than risking it dropping. The report that also stoke fear among AI-related stocks will also force another downward pressure. It will be tough for Nvidia to fight against this. So, I am cautiously optimistic and feel that Nvidia might go back to $180 in the face of unfavourable sentiments rather than actual performance. @Fenger1188 @LuckyPiggie @Wayneqq @Universe宇宙 @HelenJanet @Success88 @SPOT_ON @Kaixiang @SR050321 @DiAngel come join
  • icycrystal
    02-24 21:03
    icycrystal
    Analyzing the current landscape with NVDA trading at $190, both scenarios present compelling cases based on upcoming catalysts and market sentiment.

    While the long-term outlook remains overwhelmingly bullish with a path to $200+ driven by Blackwell, the short-term risk of a Sell-the-News pullback to $180 is high if the earnings report doesn't provide a massive "beat and raise" that overcomes the current mechanical market pressures.

  • BTS
    01:06
    BTS
    The earnings performance of NVIDIA (NVDA), combined with a 5-year low in stock valuation, creates a compelling dilemma

    NVDA’s record-breaking results show that even good news may no longer be enough to satisfy lofty earnings expectations; this price action intensifies the valuation debate of bargain or value trap, especially as “2027 Anxiety” persists over whether the moat is intact amid rising competition and shifting market conditions

    If Blackwell shipments exceed expectations, Jensen silences doubters with strong AI dominance data, and the second leg of the AI bull market begins, likely leading to a bullish breakout toward $200

    Even with solid earnings, but enthusiasm fades amid broader macro risks and profit-taking, with institutions locking in gains and the stock searches for near-term support, likely resulting in a Sell-the-News pullback toward $180

    Ultimately, NVDA’s next move hinges on growth momentum versus macro risks, with potential for upside or a near-term pullback。。。

  • 這是甚麼東西
    02-25 11:12
    這是甚麼東西
    i pick B. Given the current market conditions and the importance of NVIDIA's earnings report, both scenarios are plausible. However, considering the significant run-up in tech stocks and the overall market's sensitivity to earnings reports, Option B (Sell-the-News Pullback — Toward $180) seems slightly more likely in the short term. This is because even with strong earnings, the market might be poised for a pullback due to profit-taking and macroeconomic concerns. Nonetheless, NVIDIA's long-term prospects, especially in AI, remain strong, which could support the stock's value over time.
  • Khikho
    02-24 21:00
    Khikho
    The current consensus is for fourth-quarter revenue of $57 billion, with data center estimates being the most aggressive-analysts have moved their forecasts from $52.7 B about six months ago to about $60.1 B now.
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